There is no week in PGA DFS that is quite as unique as the one for the TOUR Championship. We have a staggered starting scoring system based on current FedExCup rankings, which has trickled down into some dynamic pricing outside of the typical range we see on a weekly basis. It will be important to understand where players start on the week, but also not to get too caught up in that when building lineups.
Each week there are players that score through eagles, birdies, and bonuses well above their finishing position. This week, players are being given artificial finish positions from the start. One important thing to understand before you build optimally to those positions is that a -10 starting position doesn’t come with the same amount of birdies and other DFS scoring that a -10 would have in normal weeks.
That aspect alone can mitigate the impact of a player like Patrick Cantlay’s finish position bonus as if he has to battle over the weekend with multiple players for the trophy, which is highly likely. He will be doing so likely with less points to get to that position.
I tweeted out the two lineups that won large-field GPPs on Wednesday, as well as the corresponding ownership of that slate, and there are a couple of things that stand out. The first is how both players left more than $500 on the table, allowing them to be different despite carrying plenty of chalk in their lineups. Secondly, understanding just how condensed ownership is in a 30 player field like this, where only three players were less than 10% owned.
The last thing that really jumped out to me was how some of the lowest-priced players, starting the furthest back on the week, were both on the lower end of ownership but also ended up being a key piece to these lineups.
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I plan to build this week with those thoughts in mind and will be sure to leave at least a few hundred dollars on the table. I will also look for some of my favorite plays at the bottom of the board as I can expect them to be relatively low owned compared to the rest of the field, but also important pieces to winning a big GPP. Let’s get right into my plays for the week ahead at East Lake.
Top Tier
Patrick Cantlay $13,400
There are a number of places you can start your lineups this week and make a viable argument for. Regardless of who you like, they are a part of the best 30 players on TOUR. Using ownership as a guide for me up top, Patrick Cantlay is the player that is set to be one of the lowest owned of the five-figure golfers. I know I just got done talking about how the point system will hinder finish position, but the fact is DJ remained as part of the optimal build last year due to his win and the need to still play well.
We can’t expect Cantlay to putt like he did last week, but he has still been in such great form, we can’t ignore him. I will start a number of builds here, while many will take a $400 discount to Jon Rahm.
Justin Thomas $11,000
The chalk I am most willing to eat in this range is with Justin Thomas. He has an impeccable track record at this course, having finished in the top seven each of the last five years, including a T2 in 2020. I am looking at JT in a similar realm coming into the week as I did with Bryson DeChambeau last week, where his volatility may be a sign of the game coming together for something big.
I don’t love that he is hovering around 25% ownership in projections for the TOUR Championship, but I think it is merited, and again we have to look at this week differently. He is someone that can be paired near the top with a more contrarian option like Cantlay, and we can still get plenty of value down low to make a strong lineup.
Mid Tier
Harris English $8,700
There will be a ton of ownership in this range that gravitates to Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele, and rightfully so with their track records at East Lake. My issue is that we are paying a higher price and eating about 30% ownership for those guys. I say that, but I will have both, though I may try to keep them separated. I will also look to get different in this range, and I’ll be happy to do that with the likes of Harris English. You can likely count on one hand the golfers that have had a better season than English, but he’s still being overlooked on a course that seems to be tailormade for his game.
Surprisingly, English’s 69.1 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) is the same as Rory’s in our PGA Player Models.
Viktor Hovland $8,000
My rolling stat reports for this week show that Hovland has his game on the upswing heading into the TOUR Championship, and he has the scoring ability to make up ground with DraftKings points in a hurry. I will be heavy above the 18% project ownership on Hovland this week as he is the perfect style of target for this format.
Low Tier
Jason Kokrak $6,600
There aren’t any sleepers this week, so we will just categorize this group below $7,000 as part of the low tier. For me, it starts with Jason Kokrak, who I am excited to buy in on at low ownership and a game that should be really strong at East Lake. He has a great combination of distance and accuracy off the tee, as well as ample scoring ability. He is teeing off in the same starting position as Rory, DJ, and Xander but is $2,300+ less expensive. I don’t need him to beat all of those guys this week to pay off that price tag, but he certainly has the ability to make that happen.
Joaquin Niemann $5,600
Everyone knows by now about my DFS affinity for Erik Van Rooyen, who has no business being the lowest-priced player this week. Unfortunately, that is likely going to come with a high ownership level, and down low is where I want to avoid eating a lot of chalk. I’ll instead highlight someone just above; Joaquin Niemann, who will get overlooked by the chalk of the slate in Daniel Berger. Niemann has just as much scoring upside as anyone in this range, and similar to Kokrak and Hovland, Niemann has the style of game I want to buy into this week. In fact, Niemann’s 15.9 birdies per tournament over the last 75 weeks is the eighth-best mark in this field.
He will be someone that will be a staple in a number of lineups for me in DFS at the TOUR Championship.
Pictured above: Patrick Cantlay/Justin Thomas
Credit: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
