One year later, the TOUR returns back to where it all stopped last March, and the hype feels as great as ever.
The game is in a great place with so many stars and a wide array of players both young and old who could win this week at TPC Sawgrass. Even better is the return of the Milly Maker from DraftKings, as a prize pool of over $2.5 million is up for grabs, with $1 million to first place.
Our focus in this article will be around attacking that contest and finding the right mix of players, ownership and salary to take the top prize. Over the past few weeks, we have seen the top lineup structure fit around 60% in total lineup ownership, and that was once again the case for PloutosFo4 who won $200,000 in the main DraftKings GPP at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. They did it by stacking the two highest-priced players in Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau and hitting on several of the cheap guys, including Corey Conner and, most notably, Richy Werenski.
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As we transition to the first full-field event of 2021, which includes most of the top-50 players in the world, we will see the balanced lineup approach utilized more frequently. Many DFS players will find a more “comfortable” lineup build by taking multiple players in the $8,000-$9,000 range and not dipping into the lowest price points. As you look at this, you can evaluate to see how the lineups are being built based on where the ownership is pooling around certain price points, which can automatically help you in trying to build contrarian.
The name of the game in a contest like the Milly Maker where you need to beat 148,000+ other lineups, is about being unique and building in a way to create leverage. One simple way to do that off the top is to save some of your salary since a majority of players will use the full $50,000 in salary. Another is to use the ownership tools in the FantasyLabs Models, and set the optimizer to keep you within a certain lineup ownership. I typically like to set mine around 75%, but as I noted above, the winning lineups have been consistently coming in well below that this season.
In order to prep yourself for some picks, check out my tournament preview article, as well as the cash game write up from Landon Silinsky and Matt Vincenzi’s stats that matter.
Now, let’s get into the plays.
Top Tier
Dustin Johnson ($11,200 DK/$12,200 FD)
It appears starting lineups at the top price points may be a tad contrarian this week, and anytime I can be different by taking the best player in the world, I am happy to do that.
DJ has seemingly improved each year he has played TPC Sawgrass, topping out with his fifth-place finish back in 2019. He may be one that benefits from the change to March and if I can jump on that train without many others, I’ll take my chances that it rings true for a player who can pull away from any field at any given time.
Jon Rahm ($10,900 DK/$11,700 FD)
One of my favorite picks this week not only for DFS but also in betting markets is Rahm. He was in position to, at the very least, be a presence down the stretch on Sunday at the 2019 PLAYERS, if not in the driver’s seat, when he made the unfathomable call to go for the 11th green in two from the fairway bunker. That single shot and poor decision, against the advice of his caddie, cost him any hope at the title. While I am sure he still thinks about that costly choice, he is now two years removed from it and likely looks back at it as one that he let slip away.
Rahm has shown he has the game to compete on this golf course, but it seems others are choosing to go elsewhere in his price range. The Spaniard looks to be coming in at around 15% ownership while people pay down for the more comfortable build, starting with a chalky Justin Thomas. I’ll leverage the high end with Rahm here, which will allow me to be different even as I play some of the cheaper chalk.
Xander Schauffele ($10,300 DK/$11,400 FD)
Anyone that follows me knows that I am skeptical of Xander’s ability to win, having come up short time and again over the past couple of years. This often has me off him in weeks he is priced this high, and definitely when he is highly owned in this range.
This week though, the field has a ton of win equity in lower price ranges, putting Schauffele in a decent spot to be a high scorer for the lineup on DraftKings without having to win the pay off. The real aspect that allows for that is that as is the trend in my first three picks, he is set to be low owned. Schauffele is typically a DFS darling, but this week he is being overlooked, potentially to the tune of around 10% ownership.
Schauffele already has one runner-up finish at this tournament, and we know he has been one of the most consistent top finishers on TOUR even without the wins. I love his safety this week at low ownership, and maybe this is the time he breaks through when seemingly no one is expecting it.
Bonus:
As you can see, I am trying to avoid some of the chalk right at the top here as much of the $9,000 is going to see 20%+. I won’t avoid that group altogether by any means, and if I had to rank them it’d be Tony Finau, Webb Simpson then Viktor Hovland for me.
Mid Tier
Daniel Berger ($8,800 DK/$10,300 FD)
Daniel Berger is officially my pick to win THE PLAYERS this year, and part of that is definitely the great value I get at +4400. The other part though is what I see as a great course fit for a player that is playing like he has something to prove.
Berger has two wins since the TOUR restarted last June, most recently slamming the door on contenders with an emphatic eagle on the 72nd hole at Pebble Beach. He also has four other top-10 finishes in that stretch, including a third-place finish on a corollary Pete Dye course at the RBC Heritage.
I love the win equity I get with a player like Berger at a cheap price, and he’s admitted to having a chip on his shoulder after being left out of The Masters last fall. Count me in to be well above the projected 9-12% ownership for Berger.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,700 DK/$10,500 FD)
There was no player more disappointed to see the 2020 PLAYERS cancelled more than Matsuyama. He shot an opening-round 63 to take what he thought would be a two-shot lead into Friday at TPC Sawgrass. I was lucky enough to cash his first-round leader bet but left behind some heavy ownership on him. I will happily jump back in this year.
Matsuyama hasn’t had the best results to start the new year, but he seems to have found something over the past two weeks. He gained two shots on approach at the WGC Workday and was able to dial in both ball-striking aspects last week at Bay Hill, where he gained 5.3 strokes on the field in that category.
I’ll roll the dice that he’s found the key parts of his game from tee to green and hope that the putter can be hot enough to keep him around the first page of the leaderboard this week.
Tommy Fleetwood ($7,900 DK/$10,200 FD)
I’ve been on the Fleetwood bandwagon the past couple of weeks, and I’m definitely not jumping off now as he starts to show some form. He gained 4.7 strokes on the field with his irons last week at the API after gaining 1.8 on a tough field at the WGC Workday. Fleetwood seems to have found that most important aspect of his game, and the key factor for the week at TPC Sawgrass, which can have him in position to match or improve on the top-10 finishes of his last two appearances at THE PLAYERS.
My go-to this week will be leaning heavily on the best ball strikers and when Fleetwood is on, he’s arguably one of the top players in the world in that category. I’ll be happy to jump in on him again, this time at a below average price.
Will Zalatoris ($7,600 DK/$9,600 FD)
We may need to check in on Zalatoris to see if he is some sort of robot, because the kid has played six straight events on TOUR with THE PLAYERS making it seven. He’s not just showing up, he’s playing at a really high level, gaining 6.5 strokes ball striking on the field at the WGC Workday and seven at the API. Those are just silly numbers for a player still making his rounds for his first season on TOUR and playing nearly every event as a debut.
It’s fair to wonder if he will ever slow down, but you have to believe that the hype of an event like this will carry him through the week regardless. He certainly carries the game we want at TPC Sawgrass, even if it will be his first tour around it in tournament conditions, and the price tag is simply too good to pass up.
Abraham Ancer ($7,500 DK/$9,400 FD)
I’m in on Abraham Ancer this week across all markets because he is the epitome of the type of player I am looking for at TPC Sawgrass, and the prices are good all around. This is usually a combination when I’m left holding the bag, but he’s showing great form and has a 12th place finish in the books from his debut at this event in 2019.
Ancer has gained more than a stroke on the field on approach in the last five events he’s played and has matched it up well off the tee in three of those, as well. He will look to replicate that this week and at this price tag, he has as much upside as anyone in the field. I’ll eat what looks to be about 13% ownership on Ancer this week, and I’m confident in his ability to pay this off.
Value Plays
Corey Conners ($7,400 DK/$9,200 FD)
The story of last week was Canadian Corey Conners, who took a two-shot lead into the weekend at Bay Hill. He stumbled a bit on the way home as DeChambeau took control but all in all, it was a great week for Conners.
I expect him to bring that fantastic ball striking with him to Sawgrass and if he can keep the putter on the plus side this week, he can be a name on the leaderboard once again. I’ll be watching ownership on him because if it starts to creep past 15%, there are certainly enough guys around to go elsewhere.
Cameron Davis ($7,100 DK/$8,700 FD)
Quite simply, Cameron Davis may be my favorite point-per-dollar play this week at THE PLAYERS. He is a player that many have been on throughout the year because of his scoring upside in DFS. Many got burned last week as he missed the cut after an ugly first round dug too big of a hole to climb out.
I am willing to look past that in part because I dodged that bullet, but also because he seems to be a better fit on shorter tracks like TPC Sawgrass. I’m jumping on while others seem to be jumping off, knowing that his upside is tremendous if he can make the weekend since he tends to score in bunches.
Sleepers
Keegan Bradley ($6,900 DK/$8,600 FD)
Many may be surprised to see me skip over one of my stalwarts this season in Chris Kirk, but he’s past the point of sneaking up on anyone this week at up to 12% ownership. To my surprise, Keegan Bradley actually rates out better for me this week.
Bradley has quietly had a strong run of golf himself, which continued with a tie for 10th last week at the API. He has found his familiar ball-striking form and managed to roll the ball into the cup enough to compete over the last several weeks. I’ll take him over Kirk at a fraction of the ownership and allow it to be a spot for me to be different in my lineups.
Emiliano Grillo ($6,700 DK/$8,500 FD)
Another player that can really strike it but gets caught up with a poor putter is Grillo. He too has been pairing all aspects of the game together enough to compete in recent weeks with three top-25 finishes in his last four events. I am willing to take a shot or two on the Argentinian, who has made the cut at this event three straight years, including a tie for 11th in 2017.
Pictured above: Jon Rahm
Credit: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images
