The Bryson DeChambeau Class…er, Rocket Mortgage Classic, tees off this week at Detroit Golf Club and as usual we have you covered in the lead up to the event. My tournament preview will prep you for the course itself and where I see the important holes throughout each round. Matt Vincenzi breaks down some of his favorite bets in his stats that matter piece, while Landon Silinsky gives us his favorite cash game plays on FantasyLabs.
I will personally be looking closely at players that are strong birdie makers, solid with their Par 5 scoring, and have a great approach game, especially within 150 yards. You can use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to find value and create your own models with dozens of filters.
We have seen nearly have of the approaches at this course through two years come from within that range, which is ultimately the wedge game for these TOUR players. This is a tournament that has averaged 24-under for the champion in it’s two years of operation, and there is no reason to think the winning score will be any lower this week in the soft conditions at Detroit Golf Club.
My focus for GPPs this week will be around the now standard $15 entry PGA TOUR $750,000 Flop Shot on DraftKings. They will offer $200,000 to first place with 58,823 entries. It will take some strong lineup building to take this down, and that’s the goal with this article this week. Let’s get right into the picks.
Top Tier
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,400 DK/$12,200 FD)
I am virtually all-in on Bryson this week. I just think this is a week to avoid overthinking the process. Ignore the fact that he may be 30% owned, and I will either fully lock him or he’ll be at least 70% owned across my lineups this week. This course is made for his style of play, and while the final results aren’t quite there for him in recent events, he has played pretty solidly since the U.S. Open. I don’t really have much else to add here, lock in the likely winner, then move on to find five guys who can differentiate you from the field.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400 DK/$11,900 FD)
It appears that one player in the five-figure range on DK who may get overlooked is the former Masters Champion, Hideki Matsuyama. I will look to pair Bryson with a number of players and I see enough value in the low range that I am just fine going down that low in this field. On FD, Hideki is the second-highest priced player and fourth at DraftKings, making it more of a play for me on the latter site. He’s finished T21 and T13 in the two years he’s played at Detroit Golf Club. Matsuyama is clearly in a different space with his game, likely still riding the high of his first major win, and his game is still in solid form. If I can get him lower-owned than those around him, he will be a featured second player for me in lineups this week.
Mid Tier
Kevin Kisner ($8,500 DK/$11,100 FD)
Another big discrepancy between the two sites comes with Kevin Kisner, who finally flashed some form at The Travelers. He is one of the higher priced players on FanDuel which will certainly help with ownership, but also puts him in a bit of a different tier. I am much more comfortable going to him on DraftKings.
There are varying levels of ownership being displayed at this point in the week, but I’d expect to see Kiz around 10% owned as he will not rate out well in statistical models. He is more of a play to rely on his strengths, around a short Par 72 course that has shown to be a bit of a putting contest in the first two years. He is obviously a very different player than Bryson, but the leaderboards show quite a mix of players being successful as most noted by Nate Lashley’s win in 2019. I’ll mix and match games this week, and certainly Kisner will be in that mix.
Brandt Snedeker ($7,700 DK/$9,800 FD)
This play is similar for me to Kisner above, as Brandt Snedeker is known as a solid putter. His other strength is with his short irons and both of those will be key this week at Detroit Golf Club. Sneds has been up and down and is arguably trending in the wrong direction, but this is a very different event than what he has played in recent weeks and I’m going back to him here, and even made him my longshot pick to win. He has gained more than nine strokes putting in six rounds at this course, and with his ability to make birdies and score on Par 5s, he has solid win equity and fantasy upside this week.
Seamus Power ($7,500 DK/$9,200 FD)
I am hoping ownership will be lower for Power since he was a late add to the field after Charley Hoffman withdrew. Power is coming in off of three straight Top 20 finishes, including a Top 10 at the Byron Nelson. He finished 12th at this event last year, and seems to be well suited for the course alongside his hot form. If he can continue to fall under the radar, he will be a separator for my Bryson lineups this week.
Value
Cameron Davis ($7,200 DK/$8,700 FD)
In a birdie-fest event where players are going to have ample opportunity to outscore their finishing position, I will always be interested in Cam Davis. The Australian is very volatile as he can run off birdie streaks and then find trouble for a double, but as long as he makes the weekend at this event, he will almost assuredly pay off his salary on both sites. He hasn’t had great finishes in recent play, which I hope will keep his ownership down a bit, and it’s an added bonus to see that he heavily prefers the bentgrass greens he sees this week.
Doug Ghim ($7,000 DK/$8,500 FD)
This feels like a missed price for Doug Ghim this week, but it could also be that I see him as a better player than most. He has been close, even in some big events like The Players this year, which really has me questioning his low price tag this week. I like Ghim better in low scoring events like we will see this week, especially one like Detroit Golf Club where there is little water for him to really get into trouble. I’m in on the former Longhorn this week and feel pretty good about it, which usually doesn’t go overly well.
Sleepers
Scott Piercy ($6,800 DK/$8,000 FD)
It was shocking to see Piercy in this range, where I expected to go with a few youngsters. Scott certainly doesn’t fit that mold, but he has sandwiched a couple of Top 20 finishes around missed cuts, and that is the realistic upside we want in this range. This will be his first trip to the Rocket Mortgage, but he is a birdie maker and a player who does well on Par 5s. If he can do that this week, he will score enough to be a solid DFS play just by finding the weekend.
Tom Hoge ($6,700 DK/$7,600 FD)
Back to the early season well for me with Tom Hoge, who is an excellent iron player. I often look for those standout categories for players in the cheapest price range, and for Hoge I know he will give himself chances to score and then we just need to putter to come through enough to be a factor. He is also a guy that just needs to play four rounds.
Vincent Whaley ($6,500 DK/$7,700 FD)
Whaley was a popular cheap play in recent tournaments, but when he finally missed the cut at the Palmetto and again last week, he has faded back into low owned territory. It certainly is concerning to see him lose more than two strokes on approach in three of his last four rounds, but he has the ability to contend in this event and field. I expect we see him back playing the weekend, and he has the birdie making and Par 5 scoring ability to be a nice piece of your lineups this week.
