This season of golf is jam-packed with big golf tournaments and it continues this week with the second major of the calendar year, the fourth of six since September. The top players in the world all travel to Kiawah Island this week to tee it up at the PGA Championship on The Ocean Course. The Pete Dye Design was made famous with the 1991 Ryder Cup, then was the feature course in the 2012 PGA Championship which Rory McIlroy won by eight shots.
As we turn into another Major week, it means another Milly Maker on DraftKings. This week 177,708 entries will battle it out for a prize pool of just over $3M and a $1M top prize. I will start the week by looking back at the Millionaire Maker winning lineup from THE PLAYERS. The field for THE PLAYERS is much more similar to that of the PGA Championship as ownership naturally spreads out with 150+ players, where as something like The Masters only has 90 contestants with a large number that can be crossed off from the start. This review is often a good way to take a look at what it takes to bring down the biggest prize in DFS, and obviously it starts by having the winner.
THE PLAYERS was won by well-known DFS Player BigT44. He of course had Justin Thomas in his lineup, but it was the others that he built around Thomas with, and how he structured it that set him apart from others. None of the players in the winning lineup were more than 17% owned, which was where JT landed on the week. His other higher=owned players were Bryson DeChambeau and Corey Conners.
Conners was one of the more popular value plays at $7,400 and 13% ownership, but he was able to eat that chalk by getting contrarian with his last three players. All three of those players checked in at less than 7% ownership, as Jason Kokrak, Sergio Garcia and Brian Harman were lower-owned options on the week. That low ownership combined with all three finishing inside of the Top 10 in the field, is the exact combo needed to take down a big tournament like this. BigT’s lineup checked in at just under 60% total ownership, and left $900 on the table nearly ensuring no duplicates from the very start.
As I always highlight during these events, the quickest ways to get leverage and to avoid duplication is by leaving money on the table and limiting your total lineup ownership certainly under 80% if not lower.
Now let’s get to this week on Kiawah Island. The expectation is that this one will play far differently than we have seen compared to what we’ve seen at the other majors and even some PGA Championships. I personally expect single digits under par to be in play for the champion, with a number of players failing to break even.
In this case, it will change the dynamic of DFS golfer we want to target as birdies will be hard to come by, bogeys will be important to avoid and par may be fairly good. It will also make finishing position all the more important this week as it will be difficult for players to outscore their finishing spot with birdies, streaks, and bonuses like we see in standard events.
I tend to think this lends itself to a more balanced build, where jamming in the high priced players loses some value because of the lack of scoring holes on this course. As of now, my plan is to focus on one big name, and plug in the guys I like without having to dip down too low.
Top Tier
Jordan Spieth $10,100
There is no avoiding Jordan Spieth for me this week. He ranks as the top player for me in nearly everything I am looking at and he’s arguably underpriced based on recent performance. I know he will be popular as is always the case, but I am hopeful a few go another direction as the length of the course continues to be talked up.
Spieth hits the mark in nearly every category I am looking at this week, and obviously he has the short game to save par when needed on this course. One of the more encouraging things I saw from him last week in Texas was more accuracy with his tee shots allowing him to be in position to score. He is the winner this week for me, taking home the career grand slam and outlasting the rest of this elite field on a difficult ocean-side test.
Xander Schauffele $9,600
Another value in my eyes for DFS this week is with Xander Schauffele. He consistently shows up at major championships, and puts himself in position for high finishes. We are all waiting for the inevitable breakthrough win, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him grind out a victory this week.
Xander has proven to be able to compete in all types of tournaments from the par grinds like we expect this week to scoring fests. He comes in with good form and in a position to be in the conversation heading to the weekend.
Mid-Tier
Daniel Berger $8,700
One player that I really like this week just outside of the big names is Daniel Berger. He is a ball-striking, green-hitting machine that has enough of a short game to get around when he does happen to miss the putting surface on approach.
Berger played fantastic golf last week at the Byron Nelson, but simply couldn’t make enough putts to put himself into real contention going into the final round. He was able to fire an 8-under round on Sunday to finish in a tie for 3rd, and while those scores aren’t likely available this week, it shows how dialed in he is with his game.
Berger also has great history around Pete Dye and coastal tracks adding to his narrative this week. He falls in a range that will be interesting from an ownership perspective, but either way, I will have my fair share.
Tommy Fleetwood $8,200
This is a range where I am prepared to load up my lineups starting with Tommy Fleetwood. He hasn’t had a great start to the new year, but he started to show a little bit of promise at the Wells Fargo a few weeks back.
He now comes to a place that has historically played to the strengths of internationals like himself, and his ball striking will be set to hold up in the winds and firm conditions at The Ocean Course
Louis Oosthuizen $8,000
Everything I said at the end of my blurb on Fleetwood also applies here to Oosty with the big difference being that he has been in great form. He finished 8th at the Valspar a few weeks back as he gained more than five shots on the field on approach and to my surprise he’s actually the leader in strokes gained putting on TOUR this season.
The South African seems to always step his game up on the biggest stages, and the layout of this course and the anticipated conditions should be a great fit for him this week.
Shane Lowry $7,800
I could go on and on in this range with Hatton, Ancer, Niemann, etc. but instead I’ll finish the range with a player I expect to get a bit overlooked. The reigning Open Champion has proven he can do it on the big stage, under all the conditions in his native Ireland and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see him on the leaderboard again this week.
He has two recent Top 10 finishes this year at Dye tracks at The Players and RBC Heritage. He’s historically played well on Pete Dye courses and I think we see that again for the PGA Championship.
Value Plays
Matt Wallace $7,400
You should be seeing a trend of internationals and specifically Europeans by now. I am buying into the vibe that they have an advantage this week and Matt Wallace is another that fits the mold.
He’s a grinder by nature and has finally been showing his full talent of late on the PGA TOUR. He’s a four time winner in Europe and we may look back at this pricetag later this year and wonder how he was priced in this range for a Major.
Charley Hoffman $7,300
Back to an American really quick, but he’s one that is in fantastic form and is known for his success in windy conditions. Hoffman has been one of the best players on TOUR over the past month and seems to have found the groove in his game.
I love the way his skillset matches up with this course, and I don’t think he will be as effected by the elements as some of the other players will this week.
Sleepers
Ryan Palmer $6,900
Another Texan with some experience and success in the wind is Ryan Palmer. He has also had a number of good results this year on TOUR and is long enough to compete at The Ocean Course. His biggest issue has always been his putter which I think could be helped by the paspalum greens this week.
I am willing to take some shares at the price with a high comfort level Palmer will pay it off if he can just make the weekend.
Charl Schwartzel $6,800
I’m late to the part on Schwartzel who has had a resurgence in his game over the past several weeks. He has four straight Top 30 finishes including at 3rd at the Byron Nelson last week. Schwartzel is another player that knows how to navigate the conditions in store for this week, and his form has shown that he should be ready at the very least to have a weekend tee time.
