The PGA TOUR stays in Florida for one last event as part of the “Sunshine State” Swing, turning from the best field of the year to one of the worst to this stage of the season. None of the Top 10 players in the world will tee it up, and the highest ranked player — Daniel Berger — is dealing with a rib injury, leaving his status in limbo.
The weak field won’t bring any weaker than normal prize pools on the DFS side, as DraftKings has gone back to the $15 Flop Shot with a $200,000 first prize. If anything, the field of lesser known players might provide us with an edge when it comes to finding the diamonds in the rough.
As always, you can quickly get up to speed on this week’s tournament in my preview article, as well as the key stats for the week from Matt Vincenzi. Landon Silinsky has put out his favorite cash game plays on Fantasy Labs as well.
Let’s get into the picks.
Top Tier
Sungjae Im ($11,000 DK/$11,800 FD)
I’m not going to try to take a stab at the top tier for ownership in this article, just because it will change drastically if Daniel Berger, currently project for 33% ownership, backs out. That move will likely see his ownership sway heavily to In and Joaquin Niemann, but might also effect Lee Westwood and Adam Scott.
My plan this week is to start my lineups with one of the top end players who I know will be chalky like Im, then get my leverage elsewhere. Im is the defending champion of this event, which I generally veer away from playing, but in a field like this, he’s definitely in play. He started to show signs at The Players of getting out of the slump he’s been in on approach, but gave most of that good play away in one bad round where he lost 4.1 strokes on approach on Saturday. He will need that ball striking to payoff the price tag, but he’s certainly in a class above most of the field this week.
Joaquin Niemann ($10,400 DK/$11,300 FD)
The top-end player that rates out the best for me, outside of Berger, is Niemann. He appears to be a great course fit with his elite ball striking, and I won’t get caught up in his two performances at PGA National, as he’s turned into a different caliber of player over the last year.
Outside of a blip at The Genesis Invitational, Niemann has been on point with his ball striking, gaining strokes in both categories in four of his five events to start the new year. I expect him to bring that play with him this week and to be able to put himself in contention at what looks to be a discounted price with him as the fourth player on both sites.
Adam Scott ($10,100 DK/$11,200 FD)
One spot that does look like a leverage opportunity, regardless of what happens with Berger, is in playing Scott. He’s currently projected at less than 10% ownership, which is just crazy in this field. I know he has been simply bad off the tee for a couple weeks in a row, and he acknowledged as such in a Tuesday interview. My play here on the Australian is about his immense upside in a watered down field, where if he can find it off the tee, he immediately becomes one of the favorites to win.
Chris Kirk ($9,000 DK/$10,500 FD)
It’s difficult to pay this price tag on Kirk or my other stalwart of the DFS season, Cameron Tringale, but they have both earned it. These guys rank second and third for me respectively in my overall model, and Kirk gets the play here as he comes in off being in the final few groups on Sunday at The Players. He would fall out of contention there, but it was really one of the few bad rounds of his stellar early season. I’ll continue to ride Kirk, and his ball striking that has gained more than three strokes on the field in three consecutive events.
Mid Tier
Doug Ghim ($8,800 DK/$9,800 FD)
I’m a little bit torn on this play, but in this field I can’t ignore what Ghim has done in six of his last eight rounds on TOUR. The issue is his Sunday struggles have taken him from one of the final tee times to a finish outside of the Top 25 in back to back weeks. We quickly lose reliability in this field, so I’ll go back to Ghim this week and hope he has learned some from those final round issues and can keep himself in contention throughout the weekend.
Matt Wallace ($8,500 DK/$9,700 FD)
My pick to win this week is Walace, in part because he is undervalued in the betting markets and he appears to be underappreciated in DFS. I really like the set up for Wallace this week as he is a grinder, with a great short game, and that is the type of mindset you need around PGA National. He comes into the week in good form off a solid finish at another tough course at the API, and I have to believe he’s got a bit of a chip on his shoulder after missing out on The Players. Wallace appears to be someone we can get some leverage on, and I really think he has the most win equity in this price range.
Dylan Frittelli ($8,200 DK/$9,900 FD)
Another leverage spot this week comes with the South African Frittelli. He briefly put himself in contention at The Players last week before eventually finishing a respectable 22nd. His performance generally hinges on the status of his irons, and he was able to gain more than four strokes on approach over an elite field last week at TPC Sawgrass. I will look to continue to ride that hot hand into the Honda Classic where he had an 11th place finish back in 2018.
Kevin Streelman ($7,700 DK/$9,200 FD)
Streelman is one name I was pleasantly surprised to see flash as a great value for me this week, and our FantasyLabs Model likes him too. He missed the cut last week at The Players, but that was due to a poor performance on the greens. He actually gained 2.8 strokes on the field with his ball striking during his two rounds, and that is the type of form I am looking for this week.
Value Plays
Matt Jones ($7,400 DK/$9,100 FD)
I like Jones, but really not because of any of the numbers I see from a strokes gained perspective when it comes to ball striking. He is a short game Houdini that just simply gets it done on and around the greens. If he does have a solid week ball striking, that is when he really has a shot for a high finish. I really like the Australian this week for his ability to grind out par and manage any of the difficult winds they may face. Jones is a player that should be a fairly safe pick to find the weekend, and everything else can be upside.
James Hahn ($7,300 DK/$8,700 FD)
Hahn checks in as my longshot pick this week after a run of really good play for him to start the new year. He has gained 3.9 strokes or better on approach in three of his last four events, and has two Top 15 finishes in that stretch as well. It is difficult to find good form this far down the board, but Hahn certainly checks that box and is one of the better fits in my key PGA TOUR stat of Ball Striking, which is evaluated by a combination of Total Driving and Greens in Regulation.
Ryan Moore ($7,300 DK/$8,900 FD)
After a bit of a hiatus, Moore has come back to our golfing lives and seems to have found a little bit of form. He was able to make the weekend last week at The Players despite struggling with his irons to start the week. Moore would finish the weekend gaining more than two strokes with his ball striking over his final 36 holes, showing some good momentum into the new week.
Chez Reavie ($7,000 DK/$8,400 FD)
The strong ball striking of Reavie has finally returned after he was searching to find it at the start of the new year. He now has a run of four straight tournaments gaining strokes on the field in both ball striking metrics. Despite his good play tee to green, he missed the cut last week at TPC Sawgrass as he lost over 6 strokes to the field putting. This will be a new event to his schedule, but it sets up as something that can suit his controlled play tee to green.
Sleepers
Jim Furyk ($6,900 DK/$8,300 FD)
Furyk may not actually qualify as a sleeper being that he is getting some attention for ownership this week, but it makes a lot of sense. He plays a similar fairways and greens game to Chez Reavie just above, though he has the added factor of some solid course history. We generally know what we will get out of Furyk week in and week out, which provides some rare safety in the bottom tier this week.
Cameron Percy ($6,900 DK/$8,000 FD)
Take everything above about Furyk and just change the name to Percy and half the ownership. He’s also Australian which seems to be a bonus on the winds around this track.
Bo Hoag ($6,600 DK/$7,500 FD)
Now we are digging deep. Hoag has had a great star to the new year making six of his last eight cuts, and a couple of Top 20s mixed in those results. His ball striking has been good, even in last week’s missed cut, and he seems to be a fit for PGA National. I’ll buy in on him for a sleeper at this event.
