The American Express played out nearly as expected with low scores available at every turn, leaving champion Si Woo Kim with over 144 points on DraftKings and a must-have in lineups. If you had him in any lineup, you had a chance to cash, as just 3.3% of lineups got all six players past the cut. It fell below 3% when Charley Hoffman unexpectedly withdrew on Saturday morning.
Overall, the optimal lineup of the week would have spent the full $50,000 on DraftKings, but only had an overall lineup ownership of about 60%, while the winning lineup in the main GPP had about 77% lineup ownership.
This week highlights a couple of things for us — first around the obvious importance of getting all of your players through the cut, but also how keeping lineup ownership down can help you take advantage of weeks like this where the chalk mostly failed (see Scheffler, Scottie).
This week the TOUR heads to Torrey Pines for an event that will be completely different from everything we have seen to start the year. Thee rounds will be played at Torrey Pines South, which is a huge track at 7,765 yards that puts a premium on distance, but it will also play tough and feature poa annua greens.
We are likely to see a winner this week in the 10-15 under-par range rather than the 23- and 21-under of the last two weeks. It will be more of a grind than a scoring-fest from the 2021 U.S. Open site, making the types of players to target quite different from the first few weeks of the new year.
I highlight the stats I will target in my tournament preview, and Matt Vincenzi’s “stats that matter” article is a great reference.
Use the FantasyLabs Models to build optimal lineups, find correlations and much more.
Top Tier
Jon Rahm ($11,300 DK/$12,100 FD)
It’s really hard to ignore what Jon Rahm has done in his first few trips to the Farmers Insurance Open. He has finishes of 2nd/5th/29th/1st in his first four years in the event. The win in 2017 was his first career victory, and since then it’s been clear that the courses at Torrey Pines fit his eye. Last year, he finished runner-up to Marc Leishman, but actually outscored him from a DraftKings perspective, which is quite the feat.
Rahm is a clear No. 1 in my model, checking every box that I am looking for. He ranks in the Top 30 in the field over the past 24 rounds in every stat category I am looking at, and is one of the best putters in the field on poa. While I know he will be popular in DFS this week, especially on FanDuel where he is priced below Rory McIlroy, I am willing to eat that chalk for a guy that is highly likely to be a top 5 finisher, if not the winner. I’ll look to differentiate with other plays in my Rahm lineups.
Xander Schauffele ($10,400 DK/$11,600 FD)
The biggest difference between the rest of the players above $10,000 on DraftKings this week will be around their course history at Torrey Pines. Many will flock to Tony Finau, and rightfully so as outside of finding a win, his record at the Farmers matches up quite well with Rahm. Xander on the other hand has missed the cut in four of his last five trips to his home course and should be the lowest-owned of the group.
It seems to be a bit of an anomaly with Schauffele as he is a top player in the world, with a skillset that suits these courses, but he certainly is lacking results. I will take the ownership discount and leverage that he will provide in this price range as he ranks third overall for me this week. Xander ranks in the top five in the field all of the scoring categories I’m looking for including both Birdie or Better Percentage and Bogey Avoidance. I’ll take my chances that this is the year he puts it together at Torrey Pines.
Matthew Wolff ($9,100 DK/$10,500 FD)
My pick to win this week is Matthew Wolff. He had a bit of an odd week last week at the American Express, but I love that he got four rounds in the books and showed good progress with his ball striking over the weekend. He is heading to Torrey Pines for his second Farmers Insurance Open and will look to build upon his 21st place finish at the event in 2020.
Wolff is a bomber in every sense, but he combines it with an elite iron game and a preference for poa greens, a lethal combination around these courses. I fully expect Wolff to be in the mix all weekend, and while his ownership won’t be extremely low it should be held in check by those around him and for me, his price and upside makes him a core play.
Mid-Tier
Cameron Smith ($8,600 DK/$9,700 FD)
Clearly the sites are onto the track record of Australians at the Farmers Insurance Open because they priced them all right here in the same range. While everyone else goes to Scott (I will some too) and Palmer (might X him out), I will go to a couple of lower-owned options around them. Based on my model and the data I am using, I don’t feel like I am sacrificing anything by these moves either.
Cameron Smith has had a solid start to the year, following his second place finish at The Masters. He also has a great track record around Torrey Pines, making the last four cuts here, including two Top 20 finishes. He ranks 11th overall in my model, which makes him a good value for me at the price, and I believe he is ready for a true breakout season. I will be sprinkling many players in this range in my lineups as I think it is littered with solid plays, but I’ll certainly look to take advantage of what I think will be single-digit ownership on Smith by Thursday.
Billy Horschel ($8,200 DK/$9,600 FD)
The name I was most surprised to see popping in my model this week was Billy Horschel. In my mind, he wasn’t a name that I thought I would see as a fit at Torrey Pines, but his course history backs it up. He’s made the cut each of the past five years at the Farmers and has two top ten finishes in that span.
Horschel should be someone to go under the radar this week, but he has as much upside as anyone in the price range. Similar to Smith, he will be someone I expect to get at single-digit ownership and provide me leverage in lineups with players like Rahm.
Talor Gooch ($7,600 DK/$9,200 FD)
There are a bunch of good plays in the price range just below $8,000 on DraftKings. I could’ve gone a number of different directions with this pick and thought about both Gary Woodland and Corey Conners here. I am going to avoid Cameron Davis altogether. I dug in on him and despite his length off-the-tee, his best results are consistently at shorter courses that turn into birdiefests. I’ll plant my flag against him there, which will open up some of the other guys in this range.
Talor Gooch was a target of mine at the very beginning of the week, and I think they priced him just high enough to avoid too much ownership. He checks in at 16th overall in my model, which makes him one of the best price-per-dollar plays on the board for me. I love targeting Gooch during the West Coast Swing has he has huge splits showing preference for the poa greens in California, and has a third place finish in this event from 2019.
Value Plays
John Huh ($7,000 DK/$8,800 FD)
When I get into value plays, I try to find guys that appear a bit mispriced or that give me one stat to really lean on. John Huh falls in the former category, as he should be in the mid-$7000s on DraftKings.
Huh comes in after shaking the rust off in a 21st place finish at The American Express, and will be on a more traditional course fit for him at Torrey Pines. He’s made the cut in each of his last five trips to the Farmers, and that alone will provide value at this price point, but he’s also flashed upside in those appearances with two Top 25s. He’s showing good form and heading to a course he likes, but my only concern is if he continues to gain steam in ownership and into the double digits I’ll likely pivot some shares to Cameron Tringale.
Kevin Streelman ($6,900 DK/$8,400 FD)
Another player that fits the underpriced mold is Kevin Streelman. I was frustrated as he torpedoed a couple of my lineups last week with an ugly +4 round on Friday to miss the cut, but I try not to let that play into the next week. He still shows as a great fit this week at the Farmers, ranking 34th overall in my model.
I’m going back to Streelman at a low price and low ownership, leaning on his strong tee-to-green and especially approach play to carry him to the weekend.
Wyndham Clark ($6,800 DK/$7,900 FD)
One of my favorite price-per-dollar plays of the week is with Wyndham Clark. He is in the bottom price tier, but he has a couple of stat categories for us to lean on for him this week. He ranks No. 6 in this field in Driving Distance over the last 24 rounds, and is in the top five in putting on poa greens.
A made cut is all we need from Clark, and everything on top will be added value. The things he does really well are what we want at Torrey Pines, making him a favorite click for me when I have to dip down low.
