The week after a major is usually one with a light field and very few big names, but we have a surprisingly strong contingent of players gathering at Colonial Country Club this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge. The field is headlined by Dallas native Jordan Spieth who has an impeccable history at this event with a win and two runner up finishes, as well as three other Top-10 finishes in eight appearances.
All of that leads to Spieth as the top man this week on the odds board and on both DFS sites. He is followed by two of the World’s Top 5-ranked players in Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa, both of which should be a fit for Colonial. Several others from the Top 20 in the world will also tee it up this week in Texas making for an interesting week in DFS.
We have you covered at FantasyLabs and Action Network for all of the lead up and stats to dial in on. My preview article covers the course and some of the players that have performed well at this event in the past. Matt Vincenzi dials things in on the stats that matter most this week, while Landon Silinsky makes his favorite cash game picks.
This week DraftKings goes back to what has become the standard, main GPP with the $750k Flop Shot with $200,000 to first and 58,823 $15 entries. FanDuel will over the PGA Eagle which is a $9 contest entry, $125k privepool and $25,000 to first. These will be our target contests for our GPP Plays this week. Now, let’s get to my favorite plays.
Top Tier
Jordan Spieth ($11,200 DK/$12,300 FD)
I have no doubt that as things shake out from an ownership perspective, Spieth will remain as one of the most popular plays, but it’s for all of the right reasons. This is a course he has historically torn apart with six Top 10s in 8 appearances. Sure, he was off with his putter last week at The Ocean Course, but historically he bounces back with big weeks on the greens when he putts poorly in his prior event.
This is also a place where he has historically putted so well, and seems so dialed in every year on these greens, it really lines up for a big week for Spieth back around his hometown. I just don’t see how I will get to a fade on Spieth and honestly I am more considering a flat lock on him than I am going underweight to the field in any way.
Collin Morikawa ($10,500 DK/$11,900 FD)
It came as a genuine surprise for me that when I went through all of the data, Collin Morikawa rated out as a clear number one for me in my model. He really laps everyone below him by a pretty sizeable number, which might tell you a little about how much (or little) I’m looking at putting.
This course seems to be a perfect fit for the 2020 PGA Champion, and that checked out last year as he made it to a playoff with Daniel Berger. His ball striking translates well to this course where he can simply pepper the fairways and greens without needing the extensive length that many other courses on TOUR require. The greens are also on the smaller side, which will give him ample opportunities to score when he is likely hitting the greens in regulation at a higher rate than others.
Pivot: While I love both Spieth and Morikawa, that will be the case for many others and if that results in Justin Thomas ($11,000 DK/$12,100 FD) being overlooked, then I will be sure to get exposure. He is another player that benefits from the driver being out of his hand, and his elite approach play can put him in contention as well. His downfall has been the putter, especially lately, but that can turn in any given week making him a player with a chance to win when it does.
Mid Tier
Justin Rose ($8,900 DK/$10,800 FD)
My first two plays are chalk, but I am willing to eat that up top and start a majority of my lineups with Spieth and Morikawa. The areas I will get different will be in using some of the player in the bottom of that tier and top of the next. My first play that is projected for single-digit ownership with Justin Rose. Many will point this week to the 11 strokes that Rose gained putting at the PGA, and how unsustainable that will be.
I don’t disagree there, but in three trips to Colonial, Rose has never missed a cut, has a win and a third place finish, and has never lost strokes putting on these greens.
He’s a guy that has a tendency to be streaky with his putting and he certainly turned that narrative at The Ocean Course. It appears we will see similar soft conditions to the year he won this tournament in 2018 by three shots, as it has been wet lately in the area and more rain is in the forecast. I’ll take some leverage with Rose on a course he clearly likes and has the upside to win.
Kevin Na ($8,400 DK/$9,700 FD)
If you are looking for someone in form and building momentum, Kevin Na is not your guy. He is however a guy that always seems to show up for this event regardless of his form leading up. Outside of his missed cut last year in the return from the COVID-19 break, Na had four consecutive made cuts and three Top 10s, including his 2019 win. He’s set to come in around 5% ownership and with all of the chalk in the $7,900-$8,200 range on DK, I’ll take some leverage with his course history.
Matt Kuchar ($7,600 DK/$9,600 FD)
One big stand I am going to take in DFS is on a fade of Chris Kirk. He is trending above 20% ownership and for me it seems his prior good form is starting to trend in the wrong direction. Instead, I will go to Matt Kuchar who has been playing well of late and his ability to hit fairways and greens should be a solid fit for Colonial Country Club. He should come in at less than half of the ownership to Kirk and he has shown lately to have just as much upside especially on a course that doesn’t yield a ton of birdies especially in the winds expected.
Value Plays
Joel Dahmen ($7,400 DK/$9,000 FD)
Dahmen is a player coming in with great form as he has dialed up back to back events of elite approach play. He gained over nine strokes with his irons in those tournaments, and now heads to a second shot golf course that allows him to take advantage of that play. The key is always with the putter for Dahmen, and hopefully the two strokes he gained on these greens in 2020 will carry over to another good week this year.
Doug Ghim ($7,200 DK/$8,600 FD)
I am back for more pain from the Ghim Reaper. He was ultra chalk last time out and failed everyone with a missed cut, which apparently has him basically unowned this week at the Charles Schwab. I’ll zig back in while others zag out on Ghim who still rates well for me and has really just been hurt by a bad putter. While he hasn’t made a cut at this event in two trips, he gained strokes on the greens in each tournament, and his ball striking is in a much better place than it has been at any other point in his career. I am back in on Ghim, as I expect him to bounce back at low ownership.
Sleepers
Michael Thompson ($6,600 DK/$7,800 FD)
There was a stretch earlier in the year where Michael Thompson was the low end chalk seemingly every week. HIs form faded a bit and everyone quickly bailed. He ranks as one of the top players in this price point for me this week and with his style of play, he should make a good fit at this course. He gained more than five shots on the field with his approach at the Wells Fargo and has a great putting history at Colonial. I will grasp onto those two things to see if he can get them combined this week for a solid finish in a range that lacks many options.
Vincent Whaley ($6,200 DK/$7,200 FD)
If there was ever chalk at the severe low end of these price ranges, it likely should be with Whaley. I’m not sure what the guy has to do to get an increase in his pricetag, but clearly eight straight made cuts and four Top 30 finishes isn’t enough to do it. I’ll buy in on what looks like a free square if he can continue his made cut streak, especially in lineups where I am jamming in multiple top end players.
