While we don’t have a cut this week and just a current 69-player field in Baltimore, this will be the last normal event of the season. Next week will get into some dynamic pricing as players start at different positions on the leaderboard, but we will take that on when it comes.
As I have stated throughout the year, these no-cut events are ones where ownership matters even more than a standard tournament. Everyone should get four rounds barring a withdrawal, which makes the scoring opportunities equal for all across 72 holes. It will also make scoring ability that much more important, as finding birdies or better, streaks and bogey free rounds can vault someone ahead in DraftKings scoring even if they are behind them on the final leaderboard.
This week, we get the $15 Flop Shot on DraftKings, with a stout $250,000 for first place from a $1 million prize pool. The eventual winner will have to beat 78,431 other entrants, which will be our focus this week.
Now, let’s check out the plays.
Top Tier
Jon Rahm — $11,700
It just seems silly to start lineups with anyone other than Rahm. He has been the best player on TOUR for an extended period of time this summer, with COVID-19 being the only thing that has slowed him down. I’d be surprised if he truly falls short of 20% ownership as is currently projected, and he will be much more than that in Single Entry and 3 Max contests. However, I won’t overthink it.
Rahm tops our Fantasy Labs Model Rankings by a good amount, plus he’s the most likely player to win as shown by his odds that are as short as +550 at some books. There are plenty of other ways to get different down the board this week. Lock him in a majority of your lineups and don’t look back.
Viktor Hovland — $9,100
The bottom of this tier provides a strong opportunity to get a bit different from the field. Viktor Hovland is hovering right around 10% projected ownership in most spots, as Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay eat up ownership above the Norwegian. This isn’t to say I am off of them because I certainly will have my share of Bryson in particular, but Hovland is an equally good play that provides leverage.
He made headlines Monday in the final round of The Northern Trust for the wrong reasons as he had to play the final 10 holes without a putter after slamming it against his back and breaking it. Naturally, that led to an ugly day on the greens where he lost more than three strokes putting, and appears to have turned others sour on him. I’ll happily take advantage here on a course where he can use his length to his advantage, plus a guaranteed four rounds will give this birdie maker ample opportunity to outscore his finishing position.
Mid Tier
Scottie Scheffler — $8,900
For many of the same reasons I like Hovland, I will be looking to add Scheffler. He has been a monster in many high class field events this season, and he will look to do that again here. Scheffler is also a long-hitting scoring machine that, regardless of his finishing position, will have many chances to post high-scoring DraftKings rounds.
Scheffler quietly posted Top 10s in the each of the last three major championships, and has shown time and again to be ready to compete with the stars. We’re still waiting for him to breakthrough for that first win, but he’s right there and at this price he doesn’t have to be first to pay it off.
Joaquin Niemann — $8,100
Wash, rinse and repeat. Niemann is nearly the same mold of the others, though he doesn’t quite have some of the finishes. He does have a TOUR win though that was back in a fall swing event in a weak field at the Greenbrier. He will have to step it up this week to contend with the big boys, but he has the elite ball striking and total driving game that I am looking for to be successful.
The biggest issue with this Chilean has always been his short game, but he has greatly improved on the greens and bentgrass is clearly his favorite surface. Niemann will just need to hit greens in regulation this week to give himself a chance as his atrocious game around the green is a concern. I am certainly happy to look past that in DFS as he can in bunches and has shown an ability to compete in birdiefests if it goes that direction, which is valuable at this price.
Value Plays
Erik Van Rooyen — $7,500
It seems the breakthrough win at the Barracuda has vaulted EVR forward with the comfort of knowing his TOUR status going forward. He has been really solid in his he’s guaranteed for four rounds. He has shown an ability to score, making birdies and eagles, but also to have a blowup double bogey or worse that can knock him outside of the cutline.
Thankfully, we don’t have to worry about a missed cut for EVR, and can buy him with confidence at single-digit ownership and let his scoring carry the way. If he happens to get in contention once again that is just gravy at this price, as I am buying his birdie making ability more than worrying about finish position.
Jhonttan Vegas — $7,100
This play is unlikely to sneak past many, as Vegas will likely see double-digit ownership, but it’s fully merited. Outside of his missed cut in Jersey City, N.J.,last week, he had been really steady with Top 15 finishes in four of his last five events. Yes, many of those were weaker fields, but he is someone that can compete with the elite when on his game.
Vegas is a long hitter that can score quite a bit as well, which seems to fit this course narrative.I’m not as worried about eating the chalk here as it just doesn’t take much to outscore this price across four rounds. I’ll go in here unless we see him creep past 15% or so ownership.
Sleepers
Sebastian Munoz — $6,700
In this range, I want birdie makers. They are all going to have faults, so I’ll just go with the guys that I know can post a bunch of birdies even if it may also be matched by bogeys. Munoz is a great fit to that mold and he ranks as the best play in our ratings on Fantasy Labs for players below $7,000. He also has the upside to be a name near the top of the leaderboard even in this field. The only concern here would be ownership where he could creep to double digits, and if he does you may want to split out some shares to win equity values like Marc Leishman at the same price.
Aaron Wise — $6,300
Maybe I just believe in Wise more than others, but this was the name and price that jumped out to me when I thumbed through pricing upon release. He has plenty of talent, and while he doesn’t have quite the length I want off the tee, he’s still middle of this pack in distance
Wise has also flashed some form of late in top level fields after a T21 at the Northern Trust; Top 10 at Memorial; Top 20 at the PGA; and, a ninth-place finish on a comp course at the Wells Fargo. I’m crazy enough to think he could have his name in the mix, and certainly can score enough if the short game cooperates to blow away this price tag. He’s the free square for me at the BMW and opens up a ton of things at the top of the board.
