The PGA TOUR heads to Minnesota this week for the 3M Open, as some of the top players in the world go back across the pond following the season’s final major. The field will be headlined by World No. 2 Dustin Johnson who is looking for his first win stateside since the November Masters. He will be joined at the top by names such as Patrick Reed, Louis Oosthuizen and Tony Finau.
While the strength of the field certainly drops off from there, it is crunch time for the players on the bubble for this year’s FedEx Cup Playoffs. There are only three TOUR events remaining for golfers to find their way inside of the Top 125 in the standings to ensure their card for next season by qualifying for the first playoff event. This will certainly add some extra motivation to the week.
On the DFS side, we are back to the standard $15 Flop Shot with an $800,000 prize pool and a top prize of $200,000. This has become the regular and main GPP week in and week out for PGA DFS, showing just how much it has grown over the season.
Top Tier
Dustin Johnson ($11,300)
I am starting at the very top as I believe this is a course and field where DJ could simply dominate. He will be popular and rightfully so as he is currently projected around 25% ownership, and I will look to take a stand well above that, likely in the 60-70% range.
This is a weak field, on a course that values DJ’s length off the tee. It also helps that the bigger names in this field haven’t won much in the past — Finau and Oosthuizen especially. I’m planting my flag heavily at the top, and will get different with some other picks down the board.
Cameron Davis ($9,200)
We saw Cameron Davis break through a few weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic to capture his first win. I will go right back to Davis here on a course that seems to set up in a fairly similar fashion to Detroit Golf Club, and look for him to get in the mix once again. He’s always had a lot of raw talent, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few more wins over the next few years after that confidence-boosting breakthrough.
Mid-Tier
Dylan Frittelli ($8,300)
One of the most shocking results across the pond at the Open Championship was the Top 5 finish put together by Dylan Frittelli. Despite what the announcers tried to continually tell us, it was not his first major in that position as he had a similar finish at the November Masters won by DJ, but it was surprising this go around considering his form.
The South African came into the week off of three straight missed cuts, and really seemed to lack form for that type of field. Still, he put it all together for a strong finish, and comes back stateside at a price around mid-level in a much weaker tournament. Many are going to say he can’t continue to play that well, or will come off of the high of that competition for a letdown this week, but that is all fabricated. I will take the ownership of 5% or less this week, and look for him to play well on a course that sets up very similarly to his lone TOUR win at the John Deere Classic.
Ryan Moore ($7,800)
There are a few courses each year where you can throw out just about everything Ryan Moore has done to date, and just blindly play him. One of those is TPC Deere Run for the John Deere, and he backed that up with a runner-up finish two weeks ago. Another seems to be coming together here at TPC Twin Cities where he posted a 12th place finish in 2020, and I believe is primed to be in contention throughout the weekend. Moore is clearly in a stage of his career where he is picking his spots on TOUR, and I believe he not only has the game to contend this week, but has a shot to win.
Lanto Griffin ($7,700)
Another player that caught my attention last week at Royal St. George’s was Lanto Griffin. He had a very respectable T33 finish in the Open, and I was most encouraged by his iron play, which will be key this week in Minnesota. We know that Griffin has the ability to compete at the top level of this game, and he is starting to come into the form that could have him contending this week, especially in this field. I am buying that recent form with the expectation that he will give himself enough chances to take advantage of his elite short game, and possibly contend for his second win on TOUR.
Value Plays
Kyle Stanley ($7,300)
Since I am going fairly contrarian in the middle, I can afford to eat what I see as good chalk with Kyle Stanley. He is the perfect style of player for this course as he is long enough off the tee, and one of the best iron players in the field. Stanley simply seems too cheap for this field based on his skill set, and if he happens to have a hot putter this week, he has a very high ceiling to payoff this price.
Pat Perez ($7,100)
A few weeks ago, Pat Perez was chalk at a higher price tag for the John Deere Classic, which has a similar setup to this week. He is now $600 cheaper, and projecting to be owned around 5% which is about a third of the ownership he had two weeks ago.
What really has changed? Not much. It’s simply one missed cut and an overreaction despite the lower price tag. I’ll happily go back here for a player that has made the cut both years he has played this event, and if he matches the T23 he posted last year, he will return the necessary value.
Sleepers
K.H. Lee ($6,600)
As players continue to grow on TOUR we often find some unique fits to a player’s game that can’t necessarily be explained, but it just seems to hit every week. This year it has become K.H. Lee on TPC courses. His first win was back in May at TPC Craig Ranch. His top finish before that was a second at TPC Scottsdale. He was in contention before firing a final round 80 a few weeks back at TPC River Highlands. I’m back in on Lee this week on the TPC theory, with some added baby swag as he became a dad a few weeks go. Outside of these narratives, he’s now a TOUR winner and a player that has flashed plenty of upside to where he really shouldn’t be at this price tag in weak field like we will see at the 3M.
Michael Gellerman ($6,100)
If you want an opportunity to grab two of the big names up top, you may need to go really low and into the range where we see Michael Gellerman. He was starting to roll a bit before an admittedly ugly missed cut last week at the Barbosol. In diving into that further he still had his ball striking as he gained 4.6 strokes in that category across two rounds but gave 4.8 back on the greens. Gellerman has made the cut at this event in his one appearance and gained 4.4 on the greens that week. I am willing to take a shot that he’s comfortable putting at TPC Twin Cities and with his ball striking game in great form, he is worth a shot at near the minimum.
