It’s been a solid month since we have had a true full field event, which included some of the top players in the world, so it will be nice to get a little appetizer before next week’s main course. This week the Houston Open will host four of the top 15 players in the world, including current world number one, Dustin Johnson.
As I noted in my course preview article, the event will turn to a new course this year, which will have us working to figure out the best player qualities that fit at Memorial Park Golf Course. It’s a group effort as Matt Vincenzi broke down the stats he believes will matter the most as we look for the best fit in Houston and Landon Silinsky provided his favorite DFS cash game plays.
Note: As I was writing this the PGA TOUR uploaded a new scorecard for the week, which will make the course play to a Par 70. The two holes that were changed were the first and the 14th, each going from a Par 5 to a Par 4. The result from my perspective will make scores more reasonable, but also favor the bombers even more than I was doing initially.
In addition to my typical Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and Ball Striking weighting, I will be also be looking heavily on the birdie makers as I put together my favorite picks for the week. I do think we will still see good scoring as there isn’t much trouble throughout the course, but as I noted,
it will favor the bombers even more with a longer distanced Par 70. I’ll also take a look at players that play a bit better on the bermudagrass surfaces the players will see on and around the greens at Memorial Park, to help dial in on the guys that will feel most comfortable around this track.
Now let’s get onto my picks for the week!
Tony Finau ($10,900 DK/$11,500 FD)
I really had an internal struggle here as I am tempted to play Brooks Koepka at a lower price on DraftKings, as I think he will also have the lowest ownership of the top tier. FanDuel makes the decision much easier with Finau further down the board.
Ultimately, although I am concerned about win equity with Finau at this top price, I am much more comfortable with where I believe his game is coming into this week and he is simply the better overall fit for what I am looking for at Memorial Park. I know I haven’t mentioned World No. 1 DJ yet, but he is a full fade from me and if he wins off of his break due to COVID, then I’m willing to take that loss.
Finau came back to tournament play at the ZOZO after testing positive for COVID, prior to the Shriners. In most cases we have seen this year, players have taken a bit to get back into form, but Finau promptly posted an 11th place finish at Sherwood Country Club.
He is one of the top players in the field in Par 4s longer than 450 yards, and a great scorer on Par 5s. Finau ranked 17th in overall Birdie or Better Percentage last season, and is notably long off the tee, setting up to be simply the exact type of player I am targeting this week in Houston.
Tyrrell Hatton ($10,300 DK/$11,700 FD)
There may not be a player that is hotter in golf right now than Tyrrell Hatton. He’s gone through a stretch with a win on the European Tour, straight to Vegas where he finished third at the CJ Cup, and then finally, and understandably, lost some steam on Saturday at the ZOZO. Hatton presumably has had some time to recharge his proverbial batteries and now turns to a course that should be a great fit for his game.
The Englishman is a player that prefers the bermudagrass putting surfaces he will see this week in Houston, and has the length and scoring ability to contend throughout the weekend. Hatton finished fourth in Birdie or Better Percentage last season, and is one of the best iron players in this field. It would not surprise me to see Tyrrell Hatton holding the trophy come Sunday evening.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,600 DK/$11,300 FD)
As you will see tomorrow in our GolfBet Staff Picks article, Scottie Scheffler is my pick to win this week. I believe he is set to breakthrough, and this course looks like a solid fit for the Texas native. Similar to Finau, Scheffler spent some time away from the game as he also tested positive for the virus leading into the US Open.
However, he took some time to find his form again and addressed that in his interview on Tuesday of this week, while also saying he felt like he figured it out going into the ZOZO.
Scheffler is in the same mold of my other picks this week as he is a top end scorer and someone I think is better suited for lower scoring events. He is also long off the tee, scoring well in this field in on Par 5s and the long Par 4s he will face this week at Memorial Park. It’s still early this week but as of Tuesday night, he appears to be about half as owned as the current chalk, Russell Henley, who is just below him in pricing on DraftKings.
Zach Johnson ($8,600 DK/$10,600 FD)
I’ll be honest, this was not a name I expected to be writing up after doing my course analysis. Zach Johnson certainly doesn’t fit the length narrative I’ve been pushing, but in looking closer he is one of the best long Par 4 players in the field this week. He also comes in with great form having made the cut in each of his last five events, which includes four top 25 finishes and two top 10s.
ZJ finished eighth on a big course at the US Open and now he heads into a relatively long Par 70 track, which appears to be a surprisingly good fit for him. I was surprised to see his ownership projected north of 10% for the same reasons his name didn’t cross my mind initially, but he will still be a strong pivot from Doc Redman who is currently projected to nearly double ZJ’s ownership.
Brian Harman ($8,500 DK/$9,900 FD)
I know, I know this is another short hitter that doesn’t fit the mold. I’m surprised to see Brian Harman near the top of my list too, but just like ZJ he does it with a stellar long Par 4 performance. He also has a strong preference for bermudagrass, which only adds to the allure of Harman.
I’ll be using both ZJ and even moreso, Harman, to get different in my lineups in this price range on DraftKings. Ownership at this point in the week is clearly pooling around Redman, Si Woo Kim, and Cameron Davis, but these guys are distinct pivots to gain leverage.
Erik Van Rooyen ($7,700 DK/$9,300 FD)
Everything about Erik Van Rooyen’s trends heading into this week makes him a great play at under the average price on both sites. I am hoping that since we haven’t seen him stateside, he may slide through the cracks this week in Houston, despite a couple of strong finishes on the European Tour over the last month.
After finishing 23rd at the US Open in September, EVR went across the pond and finished 6th at the Scottish Open and 27th at the BMW PGA Championship. He is a player that seems to be coming into his own across both tours, and he is simply too cheap in this field. I’ll buy in despite some marginal ownership projected on the South African as I think he has as much potential win equity as anyone around this price range.
Aaron Wise ($7,400 DK/$9,200 FD)
It has been a while since Aaron Wise has made it on my radar for any PGA event. Wise had a promising start to his young career as he won the Byron Nelson in Texas in 2018, but he has really sputtered since that time. He’s had just one top 10 in the last two years, with a third in the alternate Bermuda event last fall, and came back from the COVID break missing the cut in six out of seven events. He has flashed a bit of form over his last three events with 17th at Sanderson Farms and a 26th back in Bermuda last week.
Wise’s game appears to be trending in the right direction and this should be a course that can fit his skill set as he does have length off the tee and a preference for bermudagrass. I’m buying in on the ability that I know is in there for the young player, and hoping that the good Texas vibes come back to him this week in Houston. He’ll also be a good pivot off of what appears to be heavy chalk around Sam Burns.
Matthew NeSmith ($7,000 DK/$8,300 FD)
I’ll put this out on the front end, I’ve got a soft spot for Matthew NeSmith. He’s a fellow Gamecock and someone I hope does well each week he tees it up. This week I think he is a valid buy especially at the pricetag as everything in his game has him trending as he finished 17th at Sanderson Farms then followed it up with an 8th place finish at Shriners.
Like many of the players from the southeast, NeSmith has a preference for bermudagrass greens, and that will be an added benefit for him this week.
Scott Stallings ($6,900 DK/$8,400 FD)
Another player that is simply trending is the right direction is Scott Stallings. He has had a solid three tournament stretch with a 6th at Sanderson Farms, though he’d miss the cut at Shriners, and bounce back with a 26th place finish in Bermuda. Stallings has done it with elite level approach play over the last several months and has good marks in scoring on longer Par 4s.
The fairly recent missed cut should keep the masses off of Stallings and really a made cut and a Top 30 type of finish will likely pay off this price on both sites. I really like him as a way to dip lower to be able to pay up for a couple of studs.
Photo credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images.
Pictured above: Tyrrell Hatton.
