The PGA Course Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Trends Tool and metrics to highlight stats for the upcoming tournament.
The RSM Classic involves two courses: Seaside and Plantation. What’s unique about this tournament is that golfers play Seaside for three of their four rounds and Plantation for one round. For simplicity, I backtested just Seaside since that’s where the majority of this tournament will be held, as I don’t think the addition of the Plantation course will change my strategy.
Both of these courses play quite easy, but one thing to pay attention to closer to lock is the wind since both of these tracks can be affected by windy conditions.
Let’s dive in.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics in our PGA Models to discover those that have been the most valuable at Seaside, host of this week’s RSM Classic tournament. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 53.16 DraftKings points and a +6.25 Plus/Minus with a 52.9% Consistency Rating to the field.
Metrics that tested with at least a +1.50 Plus/Minus:
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation: +4.38
- Recent Scrambling: +3.53
- Recent Bogeys: +2.50
- Long-Term Birdies: +2.36
- Long-Term Eagles: +1.98
- Recent Driving Distance: +1.90
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +1.63
- Long-Term Bogeys: +1.62
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +1.52
Key metrics: Greens in regulation, birdie or betting scoring, par-4 scoring, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
DFS Breakdown for 2019 RSM Classic
Core Plays
It doesn’t get any more exciting than rostering Jim Furyk ($8,100 DraftKings; $10,200 FanDuel). He’s hit 69.5% of GIR over the last 75 weeks, and he rarely finds trouble off the tee, hitting 72.6% of fairways over the same time frame. Furyk is just an overall good ball striker, ranking third in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds. Overall, he has the fifth-best LT Adj Rd Score in the field, but he’s priced as the No. 21 golfer on DraftKings.
Unless I pay up for Billy Horschel ($11,000 DraftKings; $11,800 FanDuel), Scottie Scheffler ($9,200 DraftKings; $10,800 FanDuel) is the most expensive golfer I’ll be rostering. It is possible to fit both into the same lineup without much fuss, but I’m partial to a balanced build this week.
Scheffler has a solid floor and plenty of upside with 1.1 eagles and 15.4 birdies per tournament over the last 75 weeks. Additionally, he should crush the par 4s here with his field-best -2.8 adjusted strokes on them over the same time frame.
I’m going back to the Xin-Jun Zhang ($7,300 DraftKings; $9,500 FanDuel) well after he made the cut on the number last week. His ball-striking hasn’t been the best over the last few tournaments, but he’s still made the cut in all but one event since the fall swing started. And if he can progress to his long-term ball-striking form (70.6% GIR), he should be just fine this week.
Tournament Targets
Maverick McNealy ($6,800 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel) has made five-straight cuts in the fall swing and is averaging -6.3 adjusted strokes on par 5s over the last 75 weeks. However, given his sporadic approach game, he’s not someone I’d go crazy with exposure. I like him as a one-off three-entry max play or someone I’d have around 5% of in mass-multi-entry. Given he won’t be highly owned it won’t be hard to be overweight on him relative to the field.
Kyle Stanley ($7,200 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel) is a strong tournament play, who could potentially see lower ownership after he missed the cut last week. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 36 rounds, but as usual, he’s struggled with his putter, ranking 104th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He still hit 77.8% of GIR last week, so if his putter isn’t 100% terrible this week, he could at least make the cut.
Cameron Percy ($7,300 DraftKings; $9,300 FanDuel) has excellent long-term metrics, hitting 72.3% of GIR and averaging -2.8 and -5.7 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s over the last 75 weeks. All three metrics rank inside the top 15 this week. And over his last 36 rounds, Percy ranks 12th and 20th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach. Not bad metrics for someone this cheap.
Quick Hits
- Dylan Frittelli ($8,700 DraftKings; $10,500 FanDuel) put together a solid 11th-place finish last week and ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 36 rounds.
- I mentioned last week I don’t normally use Denny McCarthy ($8,600 DraftKings; $10,000 FanDuel) in cash games, but this week I may do so. He hasn’t missed a cut during the fall swing, and over the last six weeks, he’s hitting 70.8% of GIR.
- J.T. Poston ($8,400 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel) has missed just one cut since his win at Wyndham in August. He’s been steady overall, ranking eighth in Total Strokes Gained over his last 36 rounds.
- Lanto Griffin ($8,000 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel) finished 76th last week, but I like him this week if he can progress to his long-term form. Over the last 75 weeks, Griffin averaged 14.7 birdies per tournament and -1.3 and -5.7 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s.
- Rory Sabbatini ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,900 FanDuel) his 80.6% of GIR last week, but struggled with his putter. If he can turn things around with the flat stick, he should be an excellent play at this price tag. I also bet Sabbatini outright at +6000, for whatever that’s worth.
- Cameron Tringale ($7,200 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel) continues to churn out made cuts, missing the weekend just once his last 10 tournaments.
- Mark Hubbard ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel) was a core play for me last week, and I like him again as he ranks eighth in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 36 rounds. He’s been great at limiting bogeys, averaging just 7.0 per tournament over the last 75 weeks. Moreover, Hubbard has crushed par 4s and 5s, averaging -1.0 and -6.2 adjusted strokes on them over the same time frame.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage or where to bet on golf!
Note: Strokes Gained and efficiency data via Fantasy National.
Pictured above: Jim Furyk
Photo credit: USA TODAY Sports
