This offseason we’ll take a look at all 32 NFL teams’ most pressing needs heading into the 2018-19 season. Let’s start with just the second team in NFL history to finish a season 0-16: The Cleveland Browns.
The Browns enter 2018 with a new front office led by John Dorsey, who worked as the Chiefs general manager from 2013-2017. Former Browns President Mike Holmgren voiced his support of the hire, exclaiming Dorsey will “get it going” if he finds a quarterback and there are “no more analytics.” Tasked with helping Dorsey find a quarterback are head coach Hue Jackson (1-31 since 2016) and new offensive coordinator Todd Haley (Steelers OC, 2012-2017).
Dorsey and company can mold the team into whatever they desire given the resources at their disposal. The team’s only notable losses are running back Isaiah Crowell and franchise left tackle Joe Thomas. The Browns have signed Carlos Hyde and former Steelers tackle Chris Hubbard to help fill Crowell and Thomas’ respective roles. They have the second-most salary cap space in the league to complement 10 draft picks — including four of the first 35.
Need No. 1: Quarterback
DeShone Kizer recorded a league-high 22 interceptions as a rookie, and his average of 3.7 adjusted net yards per pass attempt was the 10th-worst mark ever among all quarterbacks to start at least 15 games in a season. Of course, Jackson’s quarterback-unfriendly scheme deserves plenty of the blame. A league-low 15.5 percent of Kizer’s passes came off play action, and only Russell Wilson threw a higher percentage of his attempts 20-plus yards downfield. Continuously asking a rookie quarterback to beat the defense deep, without any window dressing, is a recipe for disaster, and extended absences from left tackle Joe Thomas, and wide receivers Corey Coleman and Josh Gordan certainly didn’t help.
Backup quarterbacks Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler didn’t fair much better in limited action, and the Browns’ decision to chase A.J. McCarron at the trade deadline indicated their displeasure at the position. Kizer has been traded to Green Bay, while Tyrod Taylor was brought in from Buffalo to serve as a bridge starter for whoever they ultimately draft in the first round. FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman has discussed at length what the Browns could do with the No. 1 pick. While Saquon Barkley is the current favorite to be the first player off the board, there could be value in workout-warrior Josh Allen.
Telling Stat: The Browns have had 28 different starting quarterbacks since returning to Cleveland in 1999, with 2007 marking the only season in which they’ve had a top-16 scoring quarterback (Derek Anderson, QB6) or offense.
For more, see Allen’s player profile.
For more, see Barkley’s player profile.
Need No. 2: Secondary
The Browns weren’t entirely devoid of talent in the secondary. Cornerback Jason McCourty had mixed results shadowing some of the game’s best receivers: A.J. Green (twice: 5/63/1, 5/66/0), DeAndre Hopkins (2/19/1), Marqise Lee (5/45/0), Keenan Allen (10/105/1), and Davante Adams (10/84/2), but he was traded to the Patriots to essentially move up 14 spots in the later parts of the draft. McCourty’s counterpart Jamar Taylor fared far worse, ranking among the league’s bottom-10 corners in yards and quarterback rating allowed last year. Complicating matters for the entire defense is defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ reluctance to use former first-round pick Jabrill Peppers anywhere other than 20-30 yards off the line of scrimmage.
The Browns’ 27th-ranked defense in pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) allowed a league-high 102.2 quarterback rating on the season. Seemingly the only strong point of the secondary is in the slot, where nickelback Briean Boddy-Calhoun allowed a league-low 0.42 yards per cover snap among 55 qualified slot corners. Strong safety Derek Kindred also graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 8 safety against the run. The Browns could use upgrades at any of their secondary positions considering that they were bottom-five in pass DVOA against WR1s, TEs, and even RBs. So far, they’ve added Damarious Randall, T.J. Carrie, and Terrance Mitchell, PFF’s 81st-, 21st, and 94th-highest graded cornerbacks last season. Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick has often been the first defensive back off the board in mock drafts.
Telling Stat: The Browns have allowed a league-high 71 percent of opposing quarterbacks to surpass their salary-based expectations on DraftKings in Williams’ two seasons as defensive coordinator.
For more, see Fitzpatrick’s player profile.
Need No. 3: Running Back
Jackson’s response to Crowell’s team-best 59-yard run this season was, “No, me and you, all five of us could have run through that hole.” Crowell is a former five-star recruit with three-down ability, but his ongoing feud with Jackson may have helped push him to sign with the Jets. Crowell soaked up 206 carries compared to just 82 for Duke Johnson last season, but Johnson converted his 93 targets into a team-best 74-693-3 line. Overall, Johnson was the league’s RB11 in point-per-reception scoring, and an increase in usage on the ground wouldn’t be unwarranted considering the 5’9″ and 207-pound back has averaged a respectable 4.2 yards per carry in his three-year career.
The Browns spent a league-high $40.4M on their offensive line last season, but the retirement of their All-World left tackle could spell doom for the league’s 14th- and 22nd-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. Last year, Haley fed running back Le’Veon Bell an absolutely ridiculous workload to get the most out of his unique rushing and receiving abilities. The team’s decision to sign Hyde likely takes away an immediate featured opportunity for either back, but the offense theoretically boasts enough talent at the line of scrimmage and on the outside to assist an elite fantasy back.
Telling Stat: Johnson has ranked among the league’s top-three backs in yards per touch during each of the past two seasons. Crowell had more touches than Johnson in 27 of their last 32 games.
Honorable Mention
- Receiver: Coleman and tight end David Njoku have both flashed their first-round athleticism, but injuries and inconsistency have still plagued the pass game in general. Josh Gordon is one of just 11 receivers to average at least 75 receiving yards per game through the first four seasons of their careers. The addition of Jarvis Landry fills the slot role, but the pass-catching unit is mostly unproven elsewhere, and the receiver group’s average separation of 2.84 yards per target was the 10th-worst mark in the league last season (per NFL.com’s Matt Harmon).
- Defensive Line: All Myles Garrett did as a rookie was rack up seven sacks in 11 games while earning PFF’s 12th-highest grade among all edge defenders. Garrett will likely continue to line up across former third-rounder Carl Nassib, but 340-pound run-stuffer Danny Shelton was shipped to New England despite helping the Browns defense rank fourth in run DVOA. They were one of just nine teams with two or fewer players with 20-plus pressures last season, indicating that some pass-rush ability and depth is still needed.
Daily fantasy players should know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. The draft will be held at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, from April 26-28.
Our mock draft has the Browns selecting quarterback Josh Allen with the first overall pick in the draft and defensive end Bradley Chubb with the fourth pick. Check out Allen’s player profile as well as the FantasyLabs quarterback rankings.
Be sure to conduct offseason research yourself with our NFL tools!
