Free agency begins at 4:00pm ET on March 14, but legal tampering and verbal agreements have already been flying in hot. We’ll break down each fantasy-relevant free agency move throughout the week. After starting with Tuesday’s five most impactful free agent commitments as well as the league’s new-look receiver groups, let’s check out the running back groups that have changed significantly in the last few days.
Tennessee Titans
2017 backfield: DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry
2018 projected backfield: Dion Lewis and Henry
The D-train featured-back era lasted less than a week before the Titans decided to bring in Lewis to replace Murray. A committee approach is likely, and Lewis seems to be on the fast track for lead-back duties. Henry had fewer than 10 carries in 19 of his 31 games over the past two seasons, and Lewis’ more-polished three-down ability is seemingly a better fit in new offensive coordinator Matt LeFleur‘s system than Henry’s haunted runaway shopping cart style of running.
Even the most devoted Henry truther can see that Lewis is a talented back. He was one of just five running backs to eclipse 100-plus DraftKings points during the final month of the season, and he was No. 1 overall back in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating and Football Outsider’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Still, Lewis missed 18 games in 2015-17 and was rarely asked to work as the Patriots’ three-down back for extended stretches.
2018 outlook: It seems unlikely that LeFleur and the Titans will use Lewis as their undisputed No.1 back given his aforementioned injury concerns. Giving 5’7″ and 193-pound backs 20-plus touches per game isn’t a recipe for long-term success. The team’s new-look scheme will undoubtedly use a rotation, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Lewis fill Murray’s fantasy-friendly No. 1 role as the offense’s passing-down back.
- Murray per-game averages 2016-17 (31 games): 15.4 rushes, 3.7 targets, 0.6 rushes inside five-yard line
- Henry per-game averages 2016-17 (31 games): 9.2 rushes, 1.0 targets, 0.4 rushes inside the five-yard line
San Francisco 49ers
2017 backfield: Carlos Hyde and Matt Breida
2018 projected backfield: Jerick McKinnon and Breida
Hyde joins career journeymen Terrance West and Ben Tate as the only running backs to receive 50-plus carries and average fewer than 4.0 yards per carry under Kyle Shanahan since 2012. His 59 receptions last season were more than he totaled in 2014-16, but Hyde ranked 48th among 55 qualified backs in yards per route run. Despite playing all 16 games and joining Todd Gurley as the only backs with 15-plus rushes inside the five-yard line and 50-plus targets, Hyde was last season’s RB13 in average DraftKings points per game.
Next season’s 49ers will be led by the second coming of Ladainian Tomlinson when it comes to athleticism. While McKinnon’s on-field production won’t be mistaken for LT’s, he has routinely proven himself as one of the league’s most-versatile and dangerous backs in the open field.
Expect Shanahan to figure out creative ways to unleash the former collegiate quarterback all over the field to exploit mismatches in space. Despite splitting reps with Latavius Murray in the wake of Dalvin Cook‘s season-ending injury, McKinnon ranked among the league’s top-eight backs in both receptions (43) and receiving yards (381) from Week 5 on in 2017.
2018 outlook: McKinnon’s four-year deal makes him the league’s fourth-highest paid back, so it’d be surprising if Shanahan doesn’t find a way to get the SPARQ-plug 15-plus touches per game. Breida doesn’t have McKinnon’s size or polish, but he’s in a similar stratosphere athletically and ranked among the league’s 20 top backs in yards per touch last season. Shanahan hasn’t historically had an issue with keeping two backs plenty involved in the offense.
- RB1 season-long averages with Shanahan, 2015-17: 244 carries, 66.7 targets
- RB2 season-long averages with Shanahan, 2015-17: 103.3 carries, 38.3 targets
Cleveland Browns
2017 backfield: Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson
2018 projected backfield: Johnson and Hyde
Crowell is a former five-star recruit with three-down ability, but he’s taken his talents to the Jets. Hyde is now expected to fill in as the Browns early-down and goal-line back, although the depth chart may not be finalized, as Saquon Barkley was the odds-on favorite to be the first-overall pick following the NFL combine. Either way, the Browns were one of just six teams to operate out of the shotgun on 70-plus percent of their plays last season, which could prove to be beneficial for Hyde (per Evan Silva).
- Hyde from the shotgun: 4.9 YPC, 25% of runs went for first downs
- Hyde from under center: 3.3 YPC, 17% of runs went for first downs
Due to Hyde’s aforementioned inconsistency as a passing-down back, Johnson should remain heavily involved as a receiver. The league’s RB11 in point-per-reception scoring in 2017 converted his 93 targets into a team-best 74-693-3 line. Overall, Johnson has been a top-eight back in yards per route run in each of the past two seasons. His career average of 4.2 yards per carry demonstrates that he’s capable of being more than just a scat back.
2018 outlook: Despite being a top-three back in yards per touch during each of the past two seasons, Johnson was out-touched by Crowell in 27 of their last 32 games. Johnson’s minimum of 73 rushes and targets over the past three seasons isn’t likely going anywhere, which means that Hyde could approach Crowell’s three-year averages of 196.3 rushes and 39 targets per season. The Browns probably don’t need another back at this point, and both Hyde and Johnson carry value with the potential for double-digit touches per game in an offense no longer completely devoid of talent.
Honorable Mention
- The Giants signed Jonathan Stewart to join Wayne Gallman and Paul Perkins. Stewart and Perkins averaged 3.4 and 2.2 yards per carry last year, while Gallman showed flashes of three-down ability and ranked 13th among all running backs in Elusive Rating. They should get to run behind an upgraded offensive line that has added former Patriots left tackle Nate Solder, but it’s tough to be optimistic about any of the team’s committee backs on an offense that hasn’t scored 30-plus points in 33 consecutive games.
- Bilal Powell has been stuck in a committee for the entirety of his seven-year career. The Jets’ decision to sign Crowell in the wake of Matt Forte‘s retirement speaks magnitudes about how they feel about Powell as a featured back. Crowell and Powell figure to form a three-headed committee with second-year back Elijah McGuire for what is shaping up to be a below-average offense. It’d behoove the Jets to give Powell most of Forte’s targets (44 per year since 2016), as Crowell ranked 53rd out of 55 eligible backs in yards per route run last season.
- LeSean McCoy is again positioned to work as one of the league’s few true volume backs in 2018. Still, he’ll have a new backup, as the Bills have released 32-year-old plodder Mike Tolbert in favor of Chris Ivory, who is a legit handcuff option given that he’s averaged 14.5 DraftKings points per game in his 30 career games with 15-plus carries. Ivory could threaten Shady as a goal-line vulture, although McCoy has ultimately led the Bills in rushes inside the five-yard line during each of the past three seasons despite the presence of bruisers such as Karlos Williams, Mike Gillislee, and Tolbert.
Photo Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
