Free agency begins at 4:00pm ET on March 14, but legal tampering and verbal agreements have already been flying in hot. We’ll break down each fantasy-relevant free agency move throughout the week, starting with Tuesday’s five most impactful free agent commitments.
QB Kirk Cousins
Old Team: Washington Redskins
New Team: Minnesota Vikings
It was clear early on in free agency that there was value in betting that Cousins would wind up in Minnesota, where he’ll benefit from at least nine dome games per season with one of the best receiving duos in the league. Cousins was a top-12 quarterback last season in almost any statistical category, and that was without DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed for all but six games. His body of work over the past three years is even more impressive, as Cousins has averaged the eighth-most yards per attempt among the 93 quarterbacks to make at least 50 starts over the past 25 years.
2018 outlook: Cousins is the Vikings’ no-questions-asked franchise quarterback, but he’ll need to prove he’s capable of taking a team to the next level in the postseason after compiling a 26-30-1 record in Washington. Cousins will benefit from the league’s sixth-best offensive line in adjusted sack rate. In fact, you could argue that, among this year’s free agent quarterbacks, Cousins is the largest beneficiary in terms of improved teammates and scheme.
Kirk Cousins is looking like free agency's biggest winner in terms of improved teammates/scheme.
Largest differences in average yards of separation from each free agent QB's old/new WR groups:
1. Cousins +11
2. TyGod +9
3. Keenum -16
4. Smith -21 https://t.co/mrp7pJYaYF— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 13, 2018
QB Case Keenum
Old Team: Minnesota Vikings
New Team: Denver Broncos
The Broncos quickly pounced on their Plan B option after it was clear Cousins would be taking his talents to Minnesota. Keenum ranked among the league’s top-five quarterbacks in total QBR, completion rate, and interception rate during his wildly successful 2017 campaign, but he was more of a game manager than game changer given that the Vikings’ ball-control offense ranked second in time of possession and just 22nd in pass plays. As indicated in the previous tweet, Keenum’s new teammates and scheme are less quarterback-friendly than what he had in Minnesota.
2018 outlook: Keenum has his work cut out for him. The Broncos need to upgrade what was the 29th-ranked offensive line in adjusted sack rate last year, especially since they are in a division with four of the league’s seven top edge defenders in total pressures. There should also be plenty of concern about his transition from a climate-controlled dome in Minnesota to the at-times brutal elements of Mile High Stadium.
Case Keenum playing 8 games a year in Denver might be a #bad idea.
Keenum hand size: 9.125 inches. NFL average (as of 2014): 9.6 inches.
Career indoors (22 gms) vs. outdoors (19 gms):
Y/A: 7.5 vs. 6.4
Cmp %: 64.1% vs. 59.4%
3+ TD gms: 4 vs. 1
300+ yard gms: 4 vs. 1— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 13, 2018
QB Sam Bradford
Old Team: Minnesota Vikings
New Team: Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are in a wide-open rebuild after the departure of head coach Bruce Arians and retirement of quarterback Carson Palmer. Still, the signing of Bradford sends a message that they aren’t quitting on 2018 just yet. It remains to be seen which version of the 30-year-old signal caller they’ll be getting:
- Bradford with Rams/Eagles (63 games): 60.1% cmp, 234.8 yards per game, 1.24 TDs, 0.83 INTs, 6.45 Y/A
- Bradford with Vikings (17 games): 71.8% cmp, 250.5 yards per game, 1.35 TDs, 0.29 INTs, 7.16 Y/A
Bradford ranks 27th and 29th in yards per attempt and touchdown rate among the 29 quarterbacks to start at least 50 games since 2010. Never known for his mobility, Bradford could struggle behind the league’s 25th-ranked offensive line in adjusted sack rate. That the Cardinals signed him to only a one-year deal and then added quarterback Mike Glennon suggests that the team isn’t sold on him as a long-term option.
2018 outlook: David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are good enough to give the Cardinals an average offense with plenty of guys under center. Bradford is better than all of Palmer’s backups were over the years, but it’s become impossible to have any sort of confidence in his week-to-week availability. He’s played in just 38 of a potential 80 games over the past five seasons.
WR Sammy Watkins
Old Team: Los Angeles Rams
New Team: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs last season boasted the league’s sixth- and fourth-ranked offense in scoring and Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), but they’ve since replaced Alex Smith with Patrick Mahomes and now Albert Wilson with Watkins. Mahomes will be the latest to benefit from the ‘Sammy Watkins effect‘, although it remains to be seen if there will be enough targets to feed Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, given that the Chiefs haven’t ranked higher than 17th in pass attempts since Andy Reid took over. Watkins ranked fifth and 22nd among all wide receivers in yards per route run in 2015 and 2016, although he fell to 68th last season.
2018 outlook: Reid’s current trio of receivers is arguably the most talented of his coaching career. Consistency is always a factor, but Reid’s four seasons with Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, and Brent Celek proved that his offense is more than capable of fairly distributing wealth.
- D-Jax, 16-game average (2009-12): 117.2 targets, 61.7 receptions, 1,126.7 yards, 6.1 TDs
- Maclin, 16-game average (2009-12): 115 targets, 69 receptions, 936.4 yards, 7.1 TDs
- Celek, 16-game average (2009-12): 95.8 targets, 60.2 receptions, 756.1 yards, 4.6 TDs
Kelce will be more involved than Celek was, but even 90-plus targets might be sufficient for receivers with the game-breaking abilities of Watkins and Hill.
WR Allen Robinson
Old Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
New Team: Chicago Bears
Robinson has played 43 games since entering the league in 2014. He’s established himself as one of the league’s finest contested-catch artists, but A-Rob has also already demonstrated severe highs and lows in yearly performance.
A-Rob had quite the ceiling/floor combo in JAX.
The good:
Most receiving TDs by a 22-year old in league history:
T1. Gronk – 17
T1. Moss – 17
3. Robinson – 14The bad:
1/8 WRs over the past 25 years to record fewer than 130 fantasy points with 150+ targets— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 13, 2018
Robinson’s 2017 ended in Week 1 thanks to a torn ACL. Still, the Bears have the cap room and need at receiver to warrant the risk of taking on a volatile 24-year-old coming off a serious knee injury. Even if A-Rob is unable to return to his 2015 highs, he offers an immediate red-zone weapon for second-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky. Overall, Robinson is one of just seven players with 12-plus red-zone touchdowns in a single season since 1995.
2018 outlook: A-Rob will step in as the Bears’ undisputed WR1 in their new-look offense run by former Chiefs’ offensive coordinator Matt Nagy and former Oregon Ducks head coach Mark Helfrich. Nagy boosted Hill’s involvement and production in the Chiefs offense to a considerable extent upon being handed play-calling duties in Week 13 of last season.
- TyFreak with Reid calling plays (11 games): 7 targets, 4.9 receptions, 66 yards, 0.36 TDs
- TyFreak with Nagy calling plays (5 games): 7.8 targets, 5.6 receptions, 108.8 yards, 0.6 TDs
Trubisky fed de facto No. 1 receiver Dontrelle Inman eight-plus targets in three of his eight games with the Bears. Barring injuries or a severe dip in performance, it’d be surprising if Robinson saw fewer than seven targets per game next season.
Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
