The 2018 NFL Draft Prospect series breaks down draft-eligible players, highlighting their college production as well as their NFL potential. Daily fantasy players should know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. The draft will be held at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, from April 26-28.
This piece is on Texas linebacker Malik Jefferson, who has declared early for the draft. For the total list of all players leaving school early, see our underclassmen tracker.
Junior | 6’3″ and 236 Pounds | Projection: Rounds 1-2
Combine numbers: 40-yard: 4.52 sec | bench reps: 27 | 3-cone: DNP | 20-yard shuttle: DNP | vertical: 36 in | broad: 125 in
The No. 4 overall high-school recruit and Butkus Award winner enrolled at Texas with an overwhelming amount of expectations. While Jefferson didn’t return the Longhorns to their glory days, he started for three seasons and earned Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year honors in 2015 and the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year award in 2017. The combine confirmed his status as one of the draft’s freakiest specimens at linebacker, but it’s unclear if his instincts and production will help him become the Longhorns’ first linebacker selected in the first round since Brian Orakpo in 2009.
It’s rare to find a prospect with the physical ability to compete both in the trenches and in open space from the moment he steps on campus. Jefferson’s status as a three-year starter in the Big 12 is even more impressive considering his performance in big games:
- Notre Dame (2 games): 15 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1 sack
- Oklahoma (3 games): 24 tackles, 3 TFL, 3 sacks
- USC (1 game): 11 tackles, 2 TFL
After averaging 60.5 tackles during his first two seasons on campus, Jefferson exploded for 110 stops with a career-high 10 tackles for a loss with new defensive coordinator Todd Orlando in 2017. Still, his highs come with some lows, as Jefferson missed at least 10 tackles in every year of college (Pro Football Focus), and he never recorded an interception. The top recruits in the country regularly carry unrealistic expectations, but Jefferson largely had a very productive career by a normal athlete’s standards.
Of course, Jefferson isn’t a normal athlete. He has the mentality of a bone-rattling safety and the speed of a wide receiver in an NFL-ready body. Jefferson flashes as a sideline-to-sideline problem-causer at times, and his pure athleticism makes him a consistent terror on blitzes.
The problem is that Jefferson doesn’t look fantastic when he’s not able to run freely to the ball. He wasn’t working with the nation’s best defensive line at Texas, but he lacks both the instincts to get past blockers and the technique to disengage. While you can’t teach Jefferson’s blend of athleticism and size, it’s also hard to teach exceptional instincts and a nose for the ball.
The good news for Jefferson is that his aforementioned combine performance and high school pedigree could be enough to convince a team that he simply wasn’t being utilized correctly in college. After all, his career numbers stack up reasonably well against the draft’s first-round off-ball linebackers from 2015-17:
- Haason Reddick (4 seasons): 149 tackles, 47 TFL, 17.5 sacks, 1 INT, 5 PD, 4 FF
- Jarrad Davis (4 seasons): 201 tackles, 20 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 1 INT, 9 PD, 2 FF
- Reuben Foster (3 seasons): 211 tackles, 23 TFL, 7 sacks, 0 INT, 9 PD, 0 FF
- Darron Lee (2 seasons): 146 tackles, 27 TFL, 11 sacks, 3 INT, 5 PD, 3 FF
- Shaq Thompson (3 seasons): 232 tackles, 15 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 5 INT, 8 PD, 2 FF
- Stephone Anthony (4 seasons): 254 tackles, 34.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 3 INT, 7 PD, 5 FF
- Jefferson (3 seasons): 231 tackles, 26 TFL, 13 sacks, 0 INT, 5 PD, 2 FF
Jefferson isn’t a perfect linebacker at this stage of his career, but he possesses high-level gifts that could make him an immediate contributor if he’s used properly. Having as many alpha athletes as possible isn’t a terrible way for a team to increase its talent level, and Jefferson fits the mold of an alpha even if he’s unlikely to be anything for fantasy owners to sweat about in the near future.
Photo Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
