This fantasy preview is part of a preseason series by FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman with contributions from Ian Hartitz and Joe Holka. Other pieces in the series are available on our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
Last year marked the eighth straight season the Titans failed to make the playoffs. Still, the team’s nine wins were four more than they managed over the previous two seasons combined. New head coach Mike Mularkey’s “exotic smashmouth” offense was as effective as anyone could have hoped, and the defense consistently took away the opponent’s run game. An 8-4 record down the stretch wasn’t enough to earn a playoff berth, and franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota broke his leg during the season-ending Week 16 loss to the Jaguars, but 2016 was a good year. For the Titans, 2017 is about progressing as a team and making the playoffs.
Play-Calling Tendencies
Mularkey played nine years as a tight end for the Vikings and Steelers before retiring in 1991. After a year off, he made his coaching debut as the offensive line coach for Concordia College. Mularkey left after one season to take a quality control position with the Buccaneers in 1994 before being promoted to tight ends coach the following season. He left Tampa Bay to coach tight ends under Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh from 1996 to 2000 and was promoted to offensive coordinator in 2001, holding that position till 2003. Mularkey managed to spearhead back-to-back top-10 scoring offenses with Kordell Stewart and Tommy Maddox during his first two seasons running the offense, thanks in large part to consecutive top-10 rushing efforts led by Jerome Bettis. The offense sunk to 19th in scoring during a disappointing 6-10 campaign in 2003, but Mularkey was subsequently hired as the Bills HC.
In Buffalo, Mularkey once again utilized a run-heavy offense on his way to a successful 9-7 first season, but things fell apart in 2005 as the Bills finished 5-11 behind the fifth-worst offense in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). After his dismissal from Buffalo, Mularkey joined Miami for the second year of the Nick Saban era and the only year of the Cam Cameron era, serving as OC in 2006 and then being demoted to tight ends coach in 2007 as Cameron decided to call plays. Joining the Falcons in 2008, Mularkey oversaw the development of first-round rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. With Mularkey as OC, the Falcons were top-10 in scoring in three of four seasons.
Slowly but surely, Mularkey put more on Ryan’s plate, as he averaged 442.5 pass attempts during his first two seasons compared to 568.5 attempts in 2010-2011. Still, Mularkey’s quarterbacks have averaged just 6.87 yards per pass attempt from 2000 to 2016, and his running backs 4.14 yards per carry. Both marks rank in the bottom half of offensive coordinators with at least 2,500 pass and 2,000 rush attempts over the past 16 seasons, per PFF’s Scott Barrett.
Following his successful tenure with the Falcons, Mularkey went 2-14 in one season as the Jaguars HC in 2012 before promptly being canned. The Titans hired him to coach tight ends in 2014, and in 2015 he was given additional responsibilities as the assistant HC. Once Ken Whisenhunt was fired after his 1-6 start, Mularkey was named interim HC, and evidently his 2-7 record in that role was enough to earn him a full-time shot at the job in 2016.
Mularkey immediately rebranded the Titans into what he dubbed an “exotic smashmouth offense.” After finishing 28th in rush attempts in 2015, the Titans ran the ball more than any other team last year except for the Cowboys, Bills, and Patriots. This helped protect Mariota (for most of the season), although the Titans took plenty of chances when they did decide to pass. Overall, Mariota last season outgunned several slingers in Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Derek Carr with his 4.1 deep-ball attempts per game.
Titans OC Terry Robiskie learned his brand of offense from the likes of Mike Shanahan and Norv Turner, but he’s been #TeamMularkey for the better part of the last 10 years. Robiskie was Mularkey’s wide receivers coach in Miami and Atlanta before becoming the Titans OC in 2016. The Titans moved at a bottom-eight neutral pace last season (Mularkey’s lowest mark in six seasons), but they could feasibly speed things up in 2017 thanks to new weapons at receiver and another year of maturity from Mariota, who worked at a blistering pace in college under the tutelage of Chip Kelly.
Don’t expect the Titans to get away from their power-running identity, but the team wouldn’t have signed Eric Decker or drafted Corey Davis with the fifth overall pick if they didn’t want to boost the passing game. Look for the 2017 Titans to have a bit more balance than they did last season and potentially a slightly faster pace.
2017 Roster
The Titans have returned most of their offensive starters from last season, with the exception of some needed turnover at wide receiver:
- QB: Marcus Mariota/Matt Cassel
- RB: DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry
- WR: Rishard Matthews
- WR: Tajae Sharpe –> Eric Decker
- WR: Kendall Wright/Andre Johnson/Harry Douglas –> Corey Davis/Taywan Taylor
- TE: Delanie Walker/Anthony Fasano –> Walker/Jonnu Smith
- LT: Taylor Lewan
- LG: Quinton Spain
- C: Ben Jones
- RG: Josh Kline
- RT: Jack Conklin
The Titans will feature the same backfield as last season, although it wouldn’t be surprising if Henry, the team’s 2016 second-round pick, earned a more consistent week-to-week role. Matthews is tentatively still the No. 1 receiver, but the free-agent acquisition Decker and first-round rookie Davis (and maybe even third-rounder Taylor) will also be heavily involved. Walker will continue to demand a good amount of Mariota’s attention, and the Titans could utilize a (talented) wide receiver by committee approach if no single receiver emerges as the No. 1 option.
The starters on the offensive line missed just a combined four games last season. Conklin, the team’s No. 8 overall pick in 2016, was a first-team All-Pro at right tackle, while Lewan (eighth), Spain (15th), Kline (24th), and Jones (eighth) all earned top-25 PFF grades at their positions. Overall, only the Bills averaged more yards before contact than the Titans (3.05), and the Titans ranked among the top-12 offensive lines in adjusted line yards over both left end/tackle and right end/tackle.
On defense, the Titans return most of their unit from last year, but they have attempted to fix their leaky secondary with established playmakers and high draft picks:
- DE: DaQuan Jones
- DT: Al Woods/Austin Johnson –> Johnson/Sylvester Williams
- DE: Jurrell Casey/Karl Klug
- OLB: Derrick Morgan
- MLB: Wesley Woodyard/Sean Spence –> Woodyard
- MLB: Avery Williamson
- OLB: Brian Orakpo
- CB: Jason McCourty –> Logan Ryan
- CB: Perrish Cox –> LeShaun Sims
- SCB: Brice McCain –> Adoree’ Jackson/McCain
- FS: Kevin Byard/Rashad Johnson –> Byard
- SS: Da’Norris Searcy/Daimion Stafford –> Johnathan Cyprien/Searcy
Casey will continue to anchor a defensive line that last season allowed just 3.8 yards per rush, the sixth-lowest mark in the league. Williams started 48 games for the Broncos at nose tackle over the past four seasons and will rotate in with Johnson, eating up interior blockers to provide one-on-one matchups for Morgan and Orakpo, two of PFF’s top-30 pass-rushing edge defenders last season. Williamson and Woodyard will continue to hold down the middle of PFF’s 19th-best front seven heading into 2017.
The Titans were the second- and third-worst defense in average DraftKings points per game (PPG) and Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers last season. Ryan and Sims are an upgrade over McCourty and Cox, and the team’s other first-round pick Jackson will look to take McCain’s slot corner job. Cyprien inked a four-year $25 million deal this offseason, but PFF still calls the Titans’ secondary just the 20th-best unit heading into 2017.
Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.
Notable Players
The Tajae Sharpe-hype train was rolling this time last year. It’s funny how quickly everything can change. Your 2017 Titans:
Marcus Mariota, QB
Mariota improved his passing yards, yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), touchdown/interception ratio, and quarterback rating during each of his three seasons as the starting quarterback at Oregon. His junior season in 2014 culminated with 4,454 yards, 42 touchdowns, four interceptions, and one Heisman Trophy.
When he was a draft prospect, it was fair to question if Mariota was a result of Chip Kelly’s (and later Mark Helfrich’s) high-powered spread offense, although he’s naturally gifted with great speed (4.52-second 40) and agility (6.87-second three-cone). Selected in 2015 with the No. 2 pick behind Jameis Winston, Mariota was quick to challenge NFL defenses as a rookie, posting the 11th-highest average target distance among all quarterbacks in 2015 and averaging a strong 7.4 AY/A. In his second season he was even better, posting a 26/9 touchdown/interception ratio in 15 games.
Over the last 25 years, only Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger, Nick Foles, and Russell Wilson have posted better AY/As than Mariota among quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts in their first two NFL seasons of playing time. Although he hasn’t thrown the ball as often as others, Mariota has made his attempts count, especially in the red zone. Overall, he’s completed 60 of his 94 red-zone attempts with 33 touchdowns to zero interceptions. While Mariota is patient in the money area, his average of 8.0 completed air yards per attempt was tied for the fourth-highest mark in the league last season: Mariota is consistently asked to make tough throws down the field and he has does so well.
Only one of 12 quarterbacks to rush for at least 600 yards in his first two seasons since 1992, Mariota is a dual-threat player who’s provided consistent value as a daily fantasy option. Overall, he’s averaged 19.41 DraftKings PPG, a +2.8 Plus/Minus, and a 69.2 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). While many quarterbacks are significantly better at home, Mariota’s actually been a little better on the road, averaging 20.14 DraftKings PPG with a +4.1 Plus/Minus on a 3.5 percent ownership rate in large-field guaranteed prize pools. This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. It’s possible that sharp players this year will exploit the ownership discount Mariota has traditionally offered on the road.
Monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Titans every week, and study our DFS Contests Dashboard throughout the season to see how contrarian a Titans stack makes your tournament rosters. Consult our Correlations Matrix to get a sense of Mariota’s best stacking partners, and use our Lineup Builder to stack Mariota with his receivers.
Mariota possesses lethal efficiency, but the Titans’ 504 pass attempts were the fifth fewest in the league last season, and Mariota’s rushing totals have come on just 94 attempts. Still Mariota could see a bump in volume this year, as Mularkey increased Ryan’s load significantly in his third year, increasing his pass attempts from 29.5 to 35.7. Mariota’s potential lack of passing volume hurts his chances at a top-five positional finish, but his average draft position (ADP) of 94.1 in DRAFT best ball leagues still gives him plenty of upside as a late-round quarterback. With new additions on offense and the potential for more pass plays, Mariota offers upside at +4,000, +3,300, and +3,300 odds to throw for the most yards and touchdowns and win the Most Valuable Player award.
DeMarco Murray, RB
After Murray ran for a league-high 1,845 yards and 13 touchdowns with the Cowboys in 2014, he was paid handsomely to work as Chip Kelly’s lead back in Philadelphia. That didn’t work out. Murray averaged a career-low 3.6 yards per carry and had fewer than 15 carries in 10 of 15 games. Last year, though, Murray revitalized his career in Tennessee, gaining 1,664 total yards and 12 touchdowns on 346 touches. He made good use of his workhorse role, ranking fifth among all running backs in evaded tackles (PlayerProfiler) and ninth in yards after contact per game.
Still, it’s been Murray’s ability to handle large workloads that has truly stood out. He’s averaged 273.8 carries and 63 targets per season over the last four years — with four different offensive play callers. Last season Murray ranked third (behind only David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell) among all running backs in percentage of team running back snaps and targets. While the presence of Henry and the potential of a more pass-happy offense hurts Murray’s chances of challenging for the rushing title, most running backs dream of the type of workload Murray has, and he proved last season he’s more than capable of taking advantage of it.
Derrick Henry, RB
The Titans selected Henry in the second round of the 2016 draft, but Murray’s resurgence stalled the complete debut of the former Heisman winner. A complete specimen, the athlete to whom Henry is most comparable is Von Miller. With his size (6’3″ and 247 lbs.) and speed (4.5-second 40), Henry broke Alabama HC Nick Saban’s tendency to use a running back by committee and handled a whopping 395 carries as a junior. Henry managed to break the Crimson Tide school-rushing record with 2,219 yards, and his three-year 17/285/3 receiving line demonstrated his potential to work as a three-down back.
During the second half of last season, the Titans began taking carries away from Murray on a per-game basis and giving them to Henry:
- Murray, Games 1-8: 20 attempts, 94.5 yards per game, 0.75 touchdowns
- Murray, Games 9-16: 16.6 attempts, 66.4 yards, 0.38 touchdowns
- Henry, Games 1-8: 5.3 attempts, 23.0 yards, 0 touchdowns
- Henry, Games 9-16: 9.1 attempts, 41.1 yards, 0.63 touchdowns
Murray continued to work as the team’s go-to receiving back during the second half of the season, but Henry turned their 75/25 carry split into a 60/40. If Murray were to miss an extended period of time, Henry would get the chance to play as the workhorse behind PFF’s No. 1 overall offensive line from 2016. Considering Henry allowed zero sacks, zero hits, and just one pressure in 39 pass block snaps last season, he won’t need to leave the field often on passing downs if Murray misses any time.
Rishard Matthews, WR
After playing as a rotational receiver for the first seven games of the season, Matthews emerged as the No. 1 option in the second half of the year. Signing with the Titans last offseason, Matthews had a slow start to his career as a seventh-round pick by the Dolphins in 2012. Although Matthews had a good senior season at Nevada (91-1,364-8 with a punt return touchdown), he entered the NFL as an uncertain commodity because of an uneven pre-draft process: At the combine he was chunky (6’0″ and 217 lbs.) and slow (4.62-second 40), but at his pro day a month later he was slimmer (209 lbs.) and much faster (4.46-second 40), having a workout that some scouts called “as good a workout as they’ve seen from a receiver.” Longtime NFL executive Gil Brandt predicted that Matthews would be selected with a second-round pick.
He wasn’t, and in his first three seasons he did little in the NFL, breaking the 50-yard mark in only four games. In 2015, though, in his last year with Miami, he progressed, turning 60 targets into a 43-662-4 line in his first 10 games before being placed on injured reserve due to multiple fractured ribs. Although he didn’t pick up right where he left off, eventually Matthews found his way. In Games 1-7, he never played more than 70 percent of the snaps. In Games 8-16, he never played less than 80 percent. From that point on, only eight receivers averaged more DraftKings PPG than his 17.18.
While Matthews is likely to see Decker, Davis, and maybe even Taylor steal a portion of his targets — and it’s less than ideal that he had the league’s 10th-lowest average separation (2.2 yards) last year –Matthews is still discounted at his 126.2 DRAFT ADP.
Eric Decker, WR
Decker played just three games last year, although he continued to make a case for being one of the league’s most underrated receivers. In his three years with the Jets, while catching passes from Geno Smith, Michael Vick, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Decker averaged 15.34 DraftKings PPG with a +3.75 Plus/Minus and a 69.7 percent Consistency Rating while scoring a touchdown in 19 of his 33 games. Decker’s consistency comes from his ability to dominate near the goal line, as he converted 10 of his 25 targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns with the Jets. Early reports indicate Decker could work out of the slot for the Titans, and his size and jump-ball ability should immediately make him one of Mariota’s favorite targets close to the end zone.
Corey Davis, WR
The selection of Davis as the No. 5 overall pick came as a surprise to many. An ankle injury prohibited him from participating in any pre-draft workouts, but the Titans didn’t question his ability to stretch defenses vertically after what he accomplished at Western Michigan. Even as a true freshman Davis led the Broncos in receiving, and for his 50 career games he averaged a robust 105.6 yards and 1.04 touchdowns per game.
Davis benefited from playing against the sub-par competition in the Mid-American Conference, but even in eight career games against the Big Ten he averaged a solid 5.75-78.5-0.5 receiving line. Only 13 receivers have been drafted fifth or higher in the last 25 years. Excluding return specialist Desmond Howard, they averaged 7.7 targets per game as rookies. Davis might not be the No. 1 receiver right away, but as long as he’s healthy he should be a regular contributor.
Taywan Taylor, WR
Taylor was a complementary receiver during his first two years at Western Kentucky, but as a junior (86/1,467/17) and senior (98/1,730/17) he balled out. With peak Victor Cruz’s size (5’11” and 203 lbs.) and speed (4.50-second 40), Taylor has elite agility (6.57-second three-cone) and could be the team’s long-term slot receiver. At the same time, he’s more than capable of playing outside the numbers, as evidenced by his position-high 948 receiving yards on deep passes in 2016. Selected in the third round, he was third last year among all draft-eligible wide receivers with 3.92 yards per route run (YPRR, PFF). He likely won’t see more than a handful of targets as the team’s No. 4 receiver, but in dynasty leagues he’s a desirable player to roster.
Delanie Walker, TE
A small school wide receiver who displayed the size (6’1″ and 240 lbs.) and speed (4.54-second 40 time) of an athletic H-back/move tight end at the 2006 combine, Walker was drafted in the sixth round by the 49ers, who for the first seven years of his career used Walker as a do-it-all fullback, H-back, and second tight end behind Vernon Davis, who was also selected in 2006 — but with the sixth pick overall. With the 49ers, Walker never recorded over 350 yards or three touchdowns in a season. Since then, however, he’s averaged a 70.5-837.3-5.75 receiving line per year for four seasons. He’s one the best receiving tight ends in the league.
Still, he regressed some last season with two fewer targets per game than he had in 2015, when he was targeted on a league-high 20.6 percent of his snaps compared to 14.4 percent last season. Really, Walker is more of a slot receiver than a tight end. Walker averaged just 0.74 YPRR when lined up as a tight end compared to 2.01 when in the slot last season (PFF). Now 33 years old, Walker’s best seasons are probably in the past, but he still offers some value at his 84.2 DRAFT ADP.
Jonnu Smith, TE
Selected in the third round, Smith looks like the tight end of the future. With good size (6’3″ and 248 lbs.) and great athleticism (4.62-second 40, 127.0-inch broad), Smith was a strong college player at Florida International, finishing in the top two in receptions, yards, and touchdowns in each of his three final seasons. An all-around player, he allowed just five pressures on his 83 pass protection snaps (PFF). In his pre-draft NFL.com scouting profile of Smith, Lance Zierlein compared him to Walker. Smith probably won’t do much of note this year, but he’s a tight end to target in the later rounds of dynasty drafts.
2017 Futures
The years of Andrew Luck owning the AFC South have taken a temporary halt, and Warren Sharpe gives the Titans the sixth-easiest schedule for 2017. Mariota will be the best quarterback in the division as long as Luck is out with his shoulder injury, yet the Texans and Titans are tied with +200 odds to win the AFC South. It remains to be seen whether the Titans’ new-look secondary can hold opposing offenses at bay, but they couldn’t be in a better division to try.
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In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Titans Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
