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2017 NFL Fantasy Preview: Oakland Raiders

This fantasy preview is part of a preseason series by FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman with contributions from Ian Hartitz and Joe Holka. Other pieces in the series are available on our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.

The Oakland Raiders suffered one of the worst Super Bowl hangovers in recent memory. After losing Super Bowl XXXVII by 27 points at the hands of ex-head coach Jon Gruden and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Raiders spiraled into a black hole consisting of 14 consecutive seasons of sub-.500 football. The 2016-17 Raiders beat the Saints in Week 1 on a gutsy two-point conversion call by head coach Jack Del Rio and never looked back. A 12-4 regular season ended with a disappointing “what if” loss to the Texans in the Wild Card round, as franchise quarterback Derek Carr was forced to watch from the sideline due to a broken leg sustained during Week 15.

With the majority of their roster back from a season ago, 2017 is about the Raiders finding some success in January and attempting to earn Oakland one last Lombardi Trophy before they eventually leave for Las Vegas.

Play-Calling Tendencies

Del Rio played 11 years in the NFL as a linebacker before working as the Saints’ strength and conditioning coach from 1997-1998. Three seasons as Marvin Lewis’ linebacker coach in Baltimore led to Del Rio receiving the Panthers’ defensive coordinator position in 2002. Del Rio immediately spearheaded the league’s fifth-best scoring defense, and the Panthers were able to improve from 1-15 to 7-9 during his lone season in Carolina. The success landed Del Rio his first head coaching job with the Jaguars in 2003.

Del Rio entered a fairly comfortable situation in Jacksonville. Despite the team’s consecutive 6-10 records, he inherited a defense that had posted back-to-back top-10 scoring finishes, as well as a potential franchise quarterback in seventh overall pick Byron Leftwich. Del Rio and Leftwich stumbled to a 5-11 record in Year 1 but rode back-to-back top-seven scoring defenses to 9-7 and 12-4 marks the following two seasons.

Del Rio’s tenure in Jacksonville peaked when the team defeated the Steelers in Pittsburgh during the 2007 playoffs, but his teams never quite broke through to the next level. He was fired following three consecutive .500-or-worse seasons from 2008-2010 and a 3-8 start in 2011. Del Rio’s offenses ranked an average of 19.4 in scoring during his nine-year tenure, as the combination of Bill Musgrave, Carl Smith, and Dirk Koetter failed to consistently put together a competent unit.

Del Rio next served three seasons as the Broncos’ defensive coordinator, leading great run defenses (top-10 in yards allowed per rush in 2012-2014) that were opportunistic, averaging 25 takeaways per season. He missed out on John Elway’s memorable defensive free agent spending spree prior to the 2015 season, but the chance to become head coach of the Oakland Raiders was too much for Del Rio to pass up.

Del Rio’s seven wins in his first season as the Raiders’ head coach were as many as the team had during their previous two seasons. The defense improved from 26th to 12th in DVOA, but a still-young offense and 3-6 record down the stretch prevented the team from finishing above .500. A mediocre defense couldn’t hold the team back in 2016, as the Raiders bested their Pythagorean Expectation by a staggering 3.3 wins.

Offensive coordinator Musgrave was released during the offseason, replaced by last season’s quarterback coach Todd Downing, who enters his 17th season in the NFL. Downing has helped generate career seasons out of Matthew Stafford and Carr during his time as the Lions’ and Raiders’ quarterbacks coach, but helping lead EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton to a 9-7 record with the Bills in 2014 is unquestionably Downing’s most-impressive accomplishment to date.

Last season was the first time in 10 seasons that a Downing-coached offense didn’t finish in the top-14 in pass/run ratio. The 2017 Raiders offense returns most of the pieces that helped them rank as the 11th-best unit in DVOA a season ago, and while a potentially ineffective Marshawn Lynch could lead to a more-opportunistic passing game, the Raiders likely don’t plan on straying too far from the conservative and balanced West Coast offense and methodical pace (17th and 22nd in neutral pace over the past two seasons, per Football Outsiders) that helped them rank among the top-seven offenses in both yards and points per game (PPG) last season.

2017 Roster

The Raiders hope to have fixed their volatile right tackle situation from a season ago, and the addition of Beast Mode could lead to a more physical team identity in 2017:

  • QB: Derek Carr
  • RB: Latavius Murray/DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard –> Marshawn Lynch/Washington/Richard
  • WR: Michael Crabtree
  • WR: Amari Cooper
  • WR: Seth Roberts/Andre Holmes –> Roberts/Cordarrelle Patterson
  • TE: Clive Walford/Lee Smith –> Jared Cook/Walford/Smith
  • LT: Donald Penn/Menelik Watson –> Penn
  • LG: Kelechi Osemele
  • C: Rodney Hudson
  • RG: Gabe Jackson/Denver Kirkland
  • RT: Austin Howard/Watson/Vadal Alexander –> Marshall Newhouse/Alexander

Carr has improved in each of his first two seasons under Downing and now has his most talented offense to date. Washington and Richard were more efficient with smaller workloads compared to Murray, and the team hopes to unleash the 31-year-old Lynch behind arguably the best offensive line of his career. Cordarrelle Patterson will work as the team’s kick returner and take the departed Holmes’ handful of snaps as the No. 4 wide receiver. Cook’s ‘breakout’ season in Green Bay yielded a 30-377-1 line in 10 regular season games, but he’s still the most athletically-gifted vertical threat the team has had at tight end during Carr’s career.

Four of five starters from PFF’s reigning No. 1 offensive line return. The combination of Osemele (first-team All-Pro), Hudson (PFF’s No. 3-ranked center), and Jackson (No. 23-ranked guard) gives the Raiders the league’s strongest interior and provides consistent space for Carr to step up in the pocket. Penn (No. 12-ranked tackle) ended his offseason holdout, and the newly-acquired Newhouse will compete with the former seventh-round pick Alexander at right tackle.

The Raiders allowed a league-high 7.3 net yards per pass attempt last season but managed to rank a respectable 20th in points allowed per game thanks to an opportunistic defense (ranked second with 30 forced turnovers) and consistent pressure on the quarterback (tied for fourth in pressure per drop back). Regression on those fronts could lead to trouble for a defense that didn’t do much to help their cause this offseason:

  • DE: Mario Edwards/Denico Autry
  • DT: Dan Williams/Justin Ellis –> Ellis/Darius Latham
  • DT: Stacy McGee/Jihad Ward –> Eddie Vanderdoes/Ward
  • DE: Khalil Mack
  • OLB: Malcolm Smith –> Cory James/Jelani Jenkins
  • MLB: Perry Riley/Cory James –> Marquel Lee/Tyrell Adams/James
  • OLB: Bruce Irvin –> Irvin/Shilique Calhoun
  • CB: Sean Smith
  • CB: David Amerson/Gareon Conley
  • SCB: D.J. Hayden/T.J. Carrie –> Carrie/Conley
  • FS: Reggie Nelson
  • SS: Karl Joseph/Nate Allen –> Joseph/Obi Melifonwu

Barring the much-anticipated return of the ultra-talented Aldon Smith, the Raiders defense shouldn’t be expected to take too big of a leap from a season ago. Still, they’ll continue to remain competitive as long as Mack plays like one of the league’s best players, as he ranked first among all edge rushers in PFF’s pass rushing productivity metric in 2016. Overall, Pro Football Focus graded the Raiders’ front seven as the 15th-best unit in the league going into 2017.

The Raiders spent each of their first two picks (Conley and Melifonwu) on their secondary and hope the added depth will help a unit that ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass last season. Amerson is currently in the concussion protocol, while Conley is expected to suit up for Week 1 despite spending most of training camp on the PUP list. Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.

Derek Carr, QB

Carr’s college performance and background were on par with a first-round caliber pick. He increased his yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, and quarterback rating during each of his three seasons as a starter while running prolific Fresno State offenses. Despite possessing NFL size, a big arm, and posting top marks among all quarterbacks in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and 20-yard shuttle, Carr fell to the Raiders with the 36th overall pick in the 2014 draft.

Carr has continued to improve each season in the NFL and does just about everything well — except deal with pressure:

  • Under pressure: 3/3 TD/INT, 70.0 QB Rating, 6.6 Yds/Att
  • Not under pressure: 25/3 TD/INT, 203.7 QB Rating, 7.1 Yds/Att

Luckily, Carr has arguably the league’s premier pass-blocking offensive line in front of him. He ranks seventh among the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks as a home favorite since 2014, averaging 22.06 DraftKings PPG with a +4.9 Plus/Minus, 100 percent Consistency Rating, and 8.4 percent ownership rate in large-field guaranteed prize pools (per our Trends tool). This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. Be sure to monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Raiders each week.

Carr is currently +800 and +1,200 to lead the league in passing yards and touchdowns, respectively — the fourth- and fifth-highest marks among all quarterbacks. He’s behind only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers to win MVP at +700. Carr was considered a frontrunner for the award before being injured last season, and he’ll certainly be in consideration again if the Raiders find themselves atop the AFC West. Carr’s completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, and quarterback rating have increased during each of the past two seasons. He’s one of just four quarterbacks along with Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Dan Marino to surpass 80 passing touchdowns during his first three seasons; another boost to his already-great numbers in 2017 would place Carr firmly in the conversation among the league’s best quarterbacks.

EJ Manuel, QB

Manuel has started 17 games for the Bills over the past three seasons. His career 58.3 completion rate and 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt don’t bode well for his ability to effectively run the Raiders offense for an extended stretch, and he offers little streamer value considering he’s never thrown for over 300 yards or three touchdowns in a game. If Manuel is forced to play this season, the value of Cooper and Crabtree would plummet, as the Raiders would likely turn to a run-heavy scheme to hide their deficiencies in the passing game and on defense.

Marshawn Lynch, RB

Beast Mode is back. Lynch ranked among the top-25 running backs in average yards after contact in 2015, although injuries forced him to miss nine games, and a lack of explosion (just one run of 20-plus yards) led to an average of only 3.8 yards per carry – Lynch’s lowest mark since joining the Seahawks in 2010.

Now 31 years old, Lynch is expected to fill Murray’s role as the team’s power back. No one in the league has broken more tackles than Lynch since 2013 (245, the next closest is 179), an absolutely ridiculous accomplishment considering Lynch played a total of seven games from 2015-2016. We’ve seen versions of Lynch that are more than capable of filling this role at an elite level; the question is whether or not that version of Lynch still exists, and if this role will lead to a consistent 15-touch workload.

It’s also fair to question how effective Lynch will be without the benefit of a dual-threat quarterback:

  • Lynch with Russell Wilson: 17.1 DraftKings PPG, 4.53 YPC, 0.71 TD/Gm (55 games)
  • Lynch without Wilson: 12.8 PPG, 3.99 YPC, 0.49 TD/Gm (72 games)

Lynch’s tackle-breaking ability is unparalleled, and he’s also an underrated receiver and pass blocker. On what is expected to be one of the league’s best offenses, even a minimized role centered on red zone and fourth-quarter touches could help Lynch provide fantasy value, but he offers a very low floor at a lofty DRAFT ADP of 31. Del Rio has not made his adoration for Lynch a secret, and while there are plenty of red flags regarding Lynch’s ability to immediately regain his status as a top-10 running back, Lynch will get a chance to prove he’s still Beast Mode in his hometown and with arguably the most talented offense of his career.

DeAndre Washington, RB

Washington’s talent was so apparent in college that he forced Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury to actually run a semi-balanced offense. Overall, Washington averaged 1,654 total yards and 10 touchdowns during his last two seasons while posting the third-best elusive rating in the 2016 draft class. Standing just 5’8″ and weighing a mere 204 pounds, Washington’s production and elite athleticism (84th percentile SPARQ-x score, per PlayerProfiler) convinced the Raiders to select him with a fifth-round pick in the 2016 draft.

Washington didn’t disappoint as a rookie, combining great efficiency (5.4 yards per carry) with big-play ability (8.1 percent of runs went for 15-plus yards). During the two games Murray missed, Washington averaged 12 touches and 50.5 yards per game. While he out-touched Richard during this two-game stretch, Washington still finished with eight fewer touches than Richard on the season. Washington’s athleticism theoretically gives him more upside than Richard, but it seems likely the Raiders would split reps between their two second-year backs if Lynch is forced to miss an extended period of time.

Jalen Richard, RB

Richard, like Washington, is 5’8″ and weighs less than 210 pounds. Unlike Washington, Richard fails to impress as an athlete, demonstrating a brutal combination of agility (4.95-second 20-yard shuttle) and straight-line speed (4.60-second 40-yard dash at his pro day). He’s literally in the bottom percentile as a SPARQ-x athlete. Richard didn’t gain over 1,000 yards until his final season in college, and yet he was every bit as effective as Washington as a rookie.

Richard averaged a robust 5.9 yards per carry. He posted a better Juke Rate and Elusive Rating (PlayerProfiler metrics) than Washington, and he averaged 10 touches for 54.5 yards during Murray’s two-game absence. Washington has worked ahead of Richard in the preseason, although Richard would seemingly receive plenty of touches if Lynch were to miss time.

Amari Cooper, WR

For the past two seasons, Cooper (262 targets) has been the second banana to Crabtree (291 targets). Entering his third season and still just 22 years old, Cooper will look to finally fully capitalize on the talent that helped him average 76 receptions, 1,154.3 yards, and 10.3 touchdowns – including a ridiculous season-long 124-1,727-16 receiving line as a junior – during three dominant seasons at Alabama. All the former No. 4 overall pick needs is more fantasy-friendly opportunities.

Cooper has converted zero of his seven career targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns; Crabtree has cashed in on six of his 14 opportunities. Cooper hasn’t had an issue with contested catches, pulling in 13 of 18 contested targets last season compared to a 12 of 15 mark from Crabtree. Regardless if Crabtree continues to out-target Cooper in the red zone, Cooper has plenty of room for positive touchdown regression considering his big-play ability (21 receptions of 20-plus yards compared to 10 for Crabtree last season) and how his 11 touchdowns rank just 13th among the 18 wide receivers since 1992 to accumulate at least 250 targets in their first three seasons.

Carr was one of four quarterbacks to target his wide receivers on over 70 percent of his red zone passes last season, and reports of “that dog coming out of Cooper” in training camp certainly paint a promising picture for a Year 3 jump. Only seven receivers have managed to accumulate more yards than Cooper during their first two seasons since 1992, and the top-10 receivers on the list to play at least 13 games the following year went on to average an 83-1,231-10 line. Of course, Cooper could once again wind up as the second-most targeted receiver in a Raiders offense with plenty of weapons, but even this worst-case scenario has a proven floor of 130 targets. Cooper has high-end WR1 upside at his 20.4 DRAFT ADP with a pretty solid floor.

If you want to create Carr-Cooper stacks this season, do it with our Lineup Builder.

Michael Crabtree, WR

Crabtree’s production doesn’t necessarily need to suffer for Cooper to thrive. Crabtree received a team-high 21 red zone targets last season and should command 120-plus targets for the third consecutive season barring health. He’s finished ninth, 17th, and seventh among all wide receivers in combined receptions, yards, and touchdowns, respectively, over the past two seasons.

Cooper was a better receiver than Crabtree last season in terms of most efficiency metrics (yards per target, catch rate, target premium, etc.), but Crabtree posted superior red zone and target distance opportunity marks. In 32 games with Cooper, Carr targeted Crabtree more often on 18 occasions. Crabtree’s current DRAFT ADP of 45.8 sits behind the likes of Allen Robinson, Alshon Jeffery, and Sammy Watkins. There isn’t anything wrong with those receivers, but only Demaryius Thomas, Julian Edelman, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and A.J. Green have commanded a higher percentage of targets per snap over the past two seasons among receivers with at least 100 targets.

Seth Roberts, WR

Roberts was one of just nine receivers to join the 20/20 club (at least 20 targets inside the 20-yard line) last season, but he also joined Brandon Marshall as the only receivers from the group to score five or fewer touchdowns. It’s fair to question how on earth Roberts obtained this remarkably fantasy-friendly workload considering his 397 yards were the fewest among the 24 receivers with at least 15 red zone targets (no one else had fewer than 580 yards). Roberts never gained over 1,000 yards in two seasons at the University of West Alabama (Division II) and has surpassed 60 yards in just two of his 12 games with five-plus targets. Roberts’ underwhelming combination of physical traits, production, and opportunity outlook make him little more than the occasional GPP flyer with a fully healthy Raiders offense.

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR

Patterson is a speed demon (4.42-second 40) with springs (37-inch vertical) and great size (6’2″ and 216 pounds). He didn’t play football in 2009 while at North Carolina Tech but exploded for 32-379-6 rushing and 61-924-15 receiving lines as a freshman at Hutchinson Community College. Patterson balled out at Tennessee to the tune of 1,086 total yards and eight touchdowns, once again demonstrating the ability to beat defenses as a rusher, receiver, and returner. The Vikings’ first-round selection in the 2013 NFL draft displayed this all-around ability again as a rookie, scoring seven touchdowns (not including two kick returns) on just 57 offensive touches.

Patterson has scored a total of four touchdowns in the three seasons since despite never missing a game. He’s never demonstrated the ability to function as a complete receiver and managed a league-low 4.8 target distance last season. He’ll provide a boost to the team’s kick return game, but Patterson will take over for Andre Holmes as the team’s No. 4 receiver — a role that yielded a combined 58 targets over the past two seasons. The idea that Patterson has Black Swan upside is better in theory than reality.

Jared Cook, TE

The exciting part about Cook’s presence on the Raiders isn’t necessarily his own production. Cook has surpassed 100 yards in just four of his 117 career games and hasn’t averaged over 10 DraftKings points per game since 2014. Clive Walford averaged just 51 targets over the past two seasons as the team’s receiving tight end, but Walford isn’t in the same stratosphere as Cook when it comes to the ability to stress a defense vertically down the seam. His individual production didn’t necessarily show it, but Cook helped unlock the Packers offense last season:

  • Aaron Rodgers with Cook (10 games): 7.95 yards per attempt
  • Rodgers without Cook (six games): 6.54 yards per attempt

Forcing the defense to respect a vertical threat in the middle of the field opens up the offense for everybody else. Blocking tight end Lee Smith will take up plenty of snaps, but forcing safeties to respect the middle of the field is good news for the Raiders’ outside receivers. Carr also isn’t quite in Rodgers’ stratosphere as a quarterback, but he’s certainly an upgrade over the barrage of incompetent arms that sucked the life out of Cook’s first seven seasons with the Titans and Rams.

2017 Futures

The Raiders currently boast a win total of 10 with a lean on the under (-150). At +160, +600, and +1,000 to win the AFC West, AFC, and Super Bowl, respectively, Vegas has identified the Raiders as one of the league’s top contenders. Warren Sharp gives the Raiders the league’s 12th-toughest schedule, although they benefit from the fourth-easiest schedule over the first nine weeks of the season. A lot went right for the Raiders last season, including an unsustainable 9-2 record in one-score games and a +16 turnover differential. Even an improved offense could have a tough time dragging a likely mediocre defense to another double-digit win season in 2017.

——

In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Raiders Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.

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The Oakland Raiders suffered one of the worst Super Bowl hangovers in recent memory. After losing Super Bowl XXXVII by 27 points at the hands of ex-head coach Jon Gruden and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Raiders spiraled into a black hole consisting of 14 consecutive seasons of sub-.500 football. The 2016-17 Raiders beat the Saints in Week 1 on a gutsy two-point conversion call by head coach Jack Del Rio and never looked back. A 12-4 regular season ended with a disappointing “what if” loss to the Texans in the Wild Card round, as franchise quarterback Derek Carr was forced to watch from the sideline due to a broken leg sustained during Week 15.

With the majority of their roster back from a season ago, 2017 is about the Raiders finding some success in January and attempting to earn Oakland one last Lombardi Trophy before they eventually leave for Las Vegas.

Play-Calling Tendencies

Del Rio played 11 years in the NFL as a linebacker before working as the Saints’ strength and conditioning coach from 1997-1998. Three seasons as Marvin Lewis’ linebacker coach in Baltimore led to Del Rio receiving the Panthers’ defensive coordinator position in 2002. Del Rio immediately spearheaded the league’s fifth-best scoring defense, and the Panthers were able to improve from 1-15 to 7-9 during his lone season in Carolina. The success landed Del Rio his first head coaching job with the Jaguars in 2003.

Del Rio entered a fairly comfortable situation in Jacksonville. Despite the team’s consecutive 6-10 records, he inherited a defense that had posted back-to-back top-10 scoring finishes, as well as a potential franchise quarterback in seventh overall pick Byron Leftwich. Del Rio and Leftwich stumbled to a 5-11 record in Year 1 but rode back-to-back top-seven scoring defenses to 9-7 and 12-4 marks the following two seasons.

Del Rio’s tenure in Jacksonville peaked when the team defeated the Steelers in Pittsburgh during the 2007 playoffs, but his teams never quite broke through to the next level. He was fired following three consecutive .500-or-worse seasons from 2008-2010 and a 3-8 start in 2011. Del Rio’s offenses ranked an average of 19.4 in scoring during his nine-year tenure, as the combination of Bill Musgrave, Carl Smith, and Dirk Koetter failed to consistently put together a competent unit.

Del Rio next served three seasons as the Broncos’ defensive coordinator, leading great run defenses (top-10 in yards allowed per rush in 2012-2014) that were opportunistic, averaging 25 takeaways per season. He missed out on John Elway’s memorable defensive free agent spending spree prior to the 2015 season, but the chance to become head coach of the Oakland Raiders was too much for Del Rio to pass up.

Del Rio’s seven wins in his first season as the Raiders’ head coach were as many as the team had during their previous two seasons. The defense improved from 26th to 12th in DVOA, but a still-young offense and 3-6 record down the stretch prevented the team from finishing above .500. A mediocre defense couldn’t hold the team back in 2016, as the Raiders bested their Pythagorean Expectation by a staggering 3.3 wins.

Offensive coordinator Musgrave was released during the offseason, replaced by last season’s quarterback coach Todd Downing, who enters his 17th season in the NFL. Downing has helped generate career seasons out of Matthew Stafford and Carr during his time as the Lions’ and Raiders’ quarterbacks coach, but helping lead EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton to a 9-7 record with the Bills in 2014 is unquestionably Downing’s most-impressive accomplishment to date.

Last season was the first time in 10 seasons that a Downing-coached offense didn’t finish in the top-14 in pass/run ratio. The 2017 Raiders offense returns most of the pieces that helped them rank as the 11th-best unit in DVOA a season ago, and while a potentially ineffective Marshawn Lynch could lead to a more-opportunistic passing game, the Raiders likely don’t plan on straying too far from the conservative and balanced West Coast offense and methodical pace (17th and 22nd in neutral pace over the past two seasons, per Football Outsiders) that helped them rank among the top-seven offenses in both yards and points per game (PPG) last season.

2017 Roster

The Raiders hope to have fixed their volatile right tackle situation from a season ago, and the addition of Beast Mode could lead to a more physical team identity in 2017:

  • QB: Derek Carr
  • RB: Latavius Murray/DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard –> Marshawn Lynch/Washington/Richard
  • WR: Michael Crabtree
  • WR: Amari Cooper
  • WR: Seth Roberts/Andre Holmes –> Roberts/Cordarrelle Patterson
  • TE: Clive Walford/Lee Smith –> Jared Cook/Walford/Smith
  • LT: Donald Penn/Menelik Watson –> Penn
  • LG: Kelechi Osemele
  • C: Rodney Hudson
  • RG: Gabe Jackson/Denver Kirkland
  • RT: Austin Howard/Watson/Vadal Alexander –> Marshall Newhouse/Alexander

Carr has improved in each of his first two seasons under Downing and now has his most talented offense to date. Washington and Richard were more efficient with smaller workloads compared to Murray, and the team hopes to unleash the 31-year-old Lynch behind arguably the best offensive line of his career. Cordarrelle Patterson will work as the team’s kick returner and take the departed Holmes’ handful of snaps as the No. 4 wide receiver. Cook’s ‘breakout’ season in Green Bay yielded a 30-377-1 line in 10 regular season games, but he’s still the most athletically-gifted vertical threat the team has had at tight end during Carr’s career.

Four of five starters from PFF’s reigning No. 1 offensive line return. The combination of Osemele (first-team All-Pro), Hudson (PFF’s No. 3-ranked center), and Jackson (No. 23-ranked guard) gives the Raiders the league’s strongest interior and provides consistent space for Carr to step up in the pocket. Penn (No. 12-ranked tackle) ended his offseason holdout, and the newly-acquired Newhouse will compete with the former seventh-round pick Alexander at right tackle.

The Raiders allowed a league-high 7.3 net yards per pass attempt last season but managed to rank a respectable 20th in points allowed per game thanks to an opportunistic defense (ranked second with 30 forced turnovers) and consistent pressure on the quarterback (tied for fourth in pressure per drop back). Regression on those fronts could lead to trouble for a defense that didn’t do much to help their cause this offseason:

  • DE: Mario Edwards/Denico Autry
  • DT: Dan Williams/Justin Ellis –> Ellis/Darius Latham
  • DT: Stacy McGee/Jihad Ward –> Eddie Vanderdoes/Ward
  • DE: Khalil Mack
  • OLB: Malcolm Smith –> Cory James/Jelani Jenkins
  • MLB: Perry Riley/Cory James –> Marquel Lee/Tyrell Adams/James
  • OLB: Bruce Irvin –> Irvin/Shilique Calhoun
  • CB: Sean Smith
  • CB: David Amerson/Gareon Conley
  • SCB: D.J. Hayden/T.J. Carrie –> Carrie/Conley
  • FS: Reggie Nelson
  • SS: Karl Joseph/Nate Allen –> Joseph/Obi Melifonwu

Barring the much-anticipated return of the ultra-talented Aldon Smith, the Raiders defense shouldn’t be expected to take too big of a leap from a season ago. Still, they’ll continue to remain competitive as long as Mack plays like one of the league’s best players, as he ranked first among all edge rushers in PFF’s pass rushing productivity metric in 2016. Overall, Pro Football Focus graded the Raiders’ front seven as the 15th-best unit in the league going into 2017.

The Raiders spent each of their first two picks (Conley and Melifonwu) on their secondary and hope the added depth will help a unit that ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass last season. Amerson is currently in the concussion protocol, while Conley is expected to suit up for Week 1 despite spending most of training camp on the PUP list. Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.

Derek Carr, QB

Carr’s college performance and background were on par with a first-round caliber pick. He increased his yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, and quarterback rating during each of his three seasons as a starter while running prolific Fresno State offenses. Despite possessing NFL size, a big arm, and posting top marks among all quarterbacks in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and 20-yard shuttle, Carr fell to the Raiders with the 36th overall pick in the 2014 draft.

Carr has continued to improve each season in the NFL and does just about everything well — except deal with pressure:

  • Under pressure: 3/3 TD/INT, 70.0 QB Rating, 6.6 Yds/Att
  • Not under pressure: 25/3 TD/INT, 203.7 QB Rating, 7.1 Yds/Att

Luckily, Carr has arguably the league’s premier pass-blocking offensive line in front of him. He ranks seventh among the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks as a home favorite since 2014, averaging 22.06 DraftKings PPG with a +4.9 Plus/Minus, 100 percent Consistency Rating, and 8.4 percent ownership rate in large-field guaranteed prize pools (per our Trends tool). This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. Be sure to monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Raiders each week.

Carr is currently +800 and +1,200 to lead the league in passing yards and touchdowns, respectively — the fourth- and fifth-highest marks among all quarterbacks. He’s behind only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers to win MVP at +700. Carr was considered a frontrunner for the award before being injured last season, and he’ll certainly be in consideration again if the Raiders find themselves atop the AFC West. Carr’s completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, and quarterback rating have increased during each of the past two seasons. He’s one of just four quarterbacks along with Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Dan Marino to surpass 80 passing touchdowns during his first three seasons; another boost to his already-great numbers in 2017 would place Carr firmly in the conversation among the league’s best quarterbacks.

EJ Manuel, QB

Manuel has started 17 games for the Bills over the past three seasons. His career 58.3 completion rate and 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt don’t bode well for his ability to effectively run the Raiders offense for an extended stretch, and he offers little streamer value considering he’s never thrown for over 300 yards or three touchdowns in a game. If Manuel is forced to play this season, the value of Cooper and Crabtree would plummet, as the Raiders would likely turn to a run-heavy scheme to hide their deficiencies in the passing game and on defense.

Marshawn Lynch, RB

Beast Mode is back. Lynch ranked among the top-25 running backs in average yards after contact in 2015, although injuries forced him to miss nine games, and a lack of explosion (just one run of 20-plus yards) led to an average of only 3.8 yards per carry – Lynch’s lowest mark since joining the Seahawks in 2010.

Now 31 years old, Lynch is expected to fill Murray’s role as the team’s power back. No one in the league has broken more tackles than Lynch since 2013 (245, the next closest is 179), an absolutely ridiculous accomplishment considering Lynch played a total of seven games from 2015-2016. We’ve seen versions of Lynch that are more than capable of filling this role at an elite level; the question is whether or not that version of Lynch still exists, and if this role will lead to a consistent 15-touch workload.

It’s also fair to question how effective Lynch will be without the benefit of a dual-threat quarterback:

  • Lynch with Russell Wilson: 17.1 DraftKings PPG, 4.53 YPC, 0.71 TD/Gm (55 games)
  • Lynch without Wilson: 12.8 PPG, 3.99 YPC, 0.49 TD/Gm (72 games)

Lynch’s tackle-breaking ability is unparalleled, and he’s also an underrated receiver and pass blocker. On what is expected to be one of the league’s best offenses, even a minimized role centered on red zone and fourth-quarter touches could help Lynch provide fantasy value, but he offers a very low floor at a lofty DRAFT ADP of 31. Del Rio has not made his adoration for Lynch a secret, and while there are plenty of red flags regarding Lynch’s ability to immediately regain his status as a top-10 running back, Lynch will get a chance to prove he’s still Beast Mode in his hometown and with arguably the most talented offense of his career.

DeAndre Washington, RB

Washington’s talent was so apparent in college that he forced Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury to actually run a semi-balanced offense. Overall, Washington averaged 1,654 total yards and 10 touchdowns during his last two seasons while posting the third-best elusive rating in the 2016 draft class. Standing just 5’8″ and weighing a mere 204 pounds, Washington’s production and elite athleticism (84th percentile SPARQ-x score, per PlayerProfiler) convinced the Raiders to select him with a fifth-round pick in the 2016 draft.

Washington didn’t disappoint as a rookie, combining great efficiency (5.4 yards per carry) with big-play ability (8.1 percent of runs went for 15-plus yards). During the two games Murray missed, Washington averaged 12 touches and 50.5 yards per game. While he out-touched Richard during this two-game stretch, Washington still finished with eight fewer touches than Richard on the season. Washington’s athleticism theoretically gives him more upside than Richard, but it seems likely the Raiders would split reps between their two second-year backs if Lynch is forced to miss an extended period of time.

Jalen Richard, RB

Richard, like Washington, is 5’8″ and weighs less than 210 pounds. Unlike Washington, Richard fails to impress as an athlete, demonstrating a brutal combination of agility (4.95-second 20-yard shuttle) and straight-line speed (4.60-second 40-yard dash at his pro day). He’s literally in the bottom percentile as a SPARQ-x athlete. Richard didn’t gain over 1,000 yards until his final season in college, and yet he was every bit as effective as Washington as a rookie.

Richard averaged a robust 5.9 yards per carry. He posted a better Juke Rate and Elusive Rating (PlayerProfiler metrics) than Washington, and he averaged 10 touches for 54.5 yards during Murray’s two-game absence. Washington has worked ahead of Richard in the preseason, although Richard would seemingly receive plenty of touches if Lynch were to miss time.

Amari Cooper, WR

For the past two seasons, Cooper (262 targets) has been the second banana to Crabtree (291 targets). Entering his third season and still just 22 years old, Cooper will look to finally fully capitalize on the talent that helped him average 76 receptions, 1,154.3 yards, and 10.3 touchdowns – including a ridiculous season-long 124-1,727-16 receiving line as a junior – during three dominant seasons at Alabama. All the former No. 4 overall pick needs is more fantasy-friendly opportunities.

Cooper has converted zero of his seven career targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns; Crabtree has cashed in on six of his 14 opportunities. Cooper hasn’t had an issue with contested catches, pulling in 13 of 18 contested targets last season compared to a 12 of 15 mark from Crabtree. Regardless if Crabtree continues to out-target Cooper in the red zone, Cooper has plenty of room for positive touchdown regression considering his big-play ability (21 receptions of 20-plus yards compared to 10 for Crabtree last season) and how his 11 touchdowns rank just 13th among the 18 wide receivers since 1992 to accumulate at least 250 targets in their first three seasons.

Carr was one of four quarterbacks to target his wide receivers on over 70 percent of his red zone passes last season, and reports of “that dog coming out of Cooper” in training camp certainly paint a promising picture for a Year 3 jump. Only seven receivers have managed to accumulate more yards than Cooper during their first two seasons since 1992, and the top-10 receivers on the list to play at least 13 games the following year went on to average an 83-1,231-10 line. Of course, Cooper could once again wind up as the second-most targeted receiver in a Raiders offense with plenty of weapons, but even this worst-case scenario has a proven floor of 130 targets. Cooper has high-end WR1 upside at his 20.4 DRAFT ADP with a pretty solid floor.

If you want to create Carr-Cooper stacks this season, do it with our Lineup Builder.

Michael Crabtree, WR

Crabtree’s production doesn’t necessarily need to suffer for Cooper to thrive. Crabtree received a team-high 21 red zone targets last season and should command 120-plus targets for the third consecutive season barring health. He’s finished ninth, 17th, and seventh among all wide receivers in combined receptions, yards, and touchdowns, respectively, over the past two seasons.

Cooper was a better receiver than Crabtree last season in terms of most efficiency metrics (yards per target, catch rate, target premium, etc.), but Crabtree posted superior red zone and target distance opportunity marks. In 32 games with Cooper, Carr targeted Crabtree more often on 18 occasions. Crabtree’s current DRAFT ADP of 45.8 sits behind the likes of Allen Robinson, Alshon Jeffery, and Sammy Watkins. There isn’t anything wrong with those receivers, but only Demaryius Thomas, Julian Edelman, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and A.J. Green have commanded a higher percentage of targets per snap over the past two seasons among receivers with at least 100 targets.

Seth Roberts, WR

Roberts was one of just nine receivers to join the 20/20 club (at least 20 targets inside the 20-yard line) last season, but he also joined Brandon Marshall as the only receivers from the group to score five or fewer touchdowns. It’s fair to question how on earth Roberts obtained this remarkably fantasy-friendly workload considering his 397 yards were the fewest among the 24 receivers with at least 15 red zone targets (no one else had fewer than 580 yards). Roberts never gained over 1,000 yards in two seasons at the University of West Alabama (Division II) and has surpassed 60 yards in just two of his 12 games with five-plus targets. Roberts’ underwhelming combination of physical traits, production, and opportunity outlook make him little more than the occasional GPP flyer with a fully healthy Raiders offense.

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR

Patterson is a speed demon (4.42-second 40) with springs (37-inch vertical) and great size (6’2″ and 216 pounds). He didn’t play football in 2009 while at North Carolina Tech but exploded for 32-379-6 rushing and 61-924-15 receiving lines as a freshman at Hutchinson Community College. Patterson balled out at Tennessee to the tune of 1,086 total yards and eight touchdowns, once again demonstrating the ability to beat defenses as a rusher, receiver, and returner. The Vikings’ first-round selection in the 2013 NFL draft displayed this all-around ability again as a rookie, scoring seven touchdowns (not including two kick returns) on just 57 offensive touches.

Patterson has scored a total of four touchdowns in the three seasons since despite never missing a game. He’s never demonstrated the ability to function as a complete receiver and managed a league-low 4.8 target distance last season. He’ll provide a boost to the team’s kick return game, but Patterson will take over for Andre Holmes as the team’s No. 4 receiver — a role that yielded a combined 58 targets over the past two seasons. The idea that Patterson has Black Swan upside is better in theory than reality.

Jared Cook, TE

The exciting part about Cook’s presence on the Raiders isn’t necessarily his own production. Cook has surpassed 100 yards in just four of his 117 career games and hasn’t averaged over 10 DraftKings points per game since 2014. Clive Walford averaged just 51 targets over the past two seasons as the team’s receiving tight end, but Walford isn’t in the same stratosphere as Cook when it comes to the ability to stress a defense vertically down the seam. His individual production didn’t necessarily show it, but Cook helped unlock the Packers offense last season:

  • Aaron Rodgers with Cook (10 games): 7.95 yards per attempt
  • Rodgers without Cook (six games): 6.54 yards per attempt

Forcing the defense to respect a vertical threat in the middle of the field opens up the offense for everybody else. Blocking tight end Lee Smith will take up plenty of snaps, but forcing safeties to respect the middle of the field is good news for the Raiders’ outside receivers. Carr also isn’t quite in Rodgers’ stratosphere as a quarterback, but he’s certainly an upgrade over the barrage of incompetent arms that sucked the life out of Cook’s first seven seasons with the Titans and Rams.

2017 Futures

The Raiders currently boast a win total of 10 with a lean on the under (-150). At +160, +600, and +1,000 to win the AFC West, AFC, and Super Bowl, respectively, Vegas has identified the Raiders as one of the league’s top contenders. Warren Sharp gives the Raiders the league’s 12th-toughest schedule, although they benefit from the fourth-easiest schedule over the first nine weeks of the season. A lot went right for the Raiders last season, including an unsustainable 9-2 record in one-score games and a +16 turnover differential. Even an improved offense could have a tough time dragging a likely mediocre defense to another double-digit win season in 2017.

——

In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Raiders Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.

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