This fantasy preview is part of a preseason series by FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman with contributions from Ian Hartitz and Joe Holka. Other pieces in the series are available on ourFantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
The New York Giants may have a new team identity with an elite defense that led them to the playoffs in 2016 for the first time since 2011, but that doesn’t mean head coach Ben McAdoo will stop attacking through the air on offense. The offensive line was surprisingly strong in pass protection, finishing second in adjusted sack rate, but the line struggled in run blocking with the ninth-worst adjusted line yards. With the additions of wide receiver Brandon Marshall and tight end Evan Engram, the Giants will rely on quarterback Eli Manning to progress as a passer and move the offense. For the Giants, 2017 is about getting back to the playoffs and advancing past the Wild Card round.
Play-Calling Tendencies
The first stop in McAdoo’s NFL coaching career was in New Orleans as the quality control coach for the Saints (2004), who at the time employed Mike McCarthy as offensive coordinator. A year later McAdoo was hired by McCarthy as the assistant offensive line and quality control coach for the San Francisco 49ers. When McCarthy accepted the head coaching job for the Green Bay Packers in 2006, McAdoo went with him, this time as tight ends coach, a position he held from 2006 to 2011. In 2012 he was promoted to quarterbacks coach, working with Aaron Rodgers for two seasons.
McAdoo’s first shot as an OC came in 2014 when he joined Tom Coughlin’s New York Giants. Under McAdoo, the Giants went from 24th to 13th in neutral pace, 28th to 13th in offensive points scored, and 19th to seventh in total passing yards in the transition from former OC Kevin Gilbride. Unsurprisingly, the offensive volume also increased considerably from 19th and 27th in passing and rushing attempts in 2013 to ninth and 10th in 2014. In 2015 the offense progressed further, finishing sixth in scoring as Manning set career highs in pass attempts (618), passing touchdowns (35), and quarterback rating (93.6).
After a second consecutive 6-10 season Coughlin was fired, and McAdoo was hired as the Giants HC in 2016. The team returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2011 thanks to an 11-5 record, but McAdoo’s play-calling ability was put into question after a slow offensive start. Whether McAdoo’s enhanced responsibilities or just putrid quarterback play was to blame, the Giants offense regressed to 26th in scoring even though they led the league in neutral pace with 28.7 seconds per play. In fact, in each of the last two years the Giants have been top-five in neutral pace and top-12 in pass/run ratio.
In 2017, it seems likely that McAdoo’s offense will play fast and throw often, which makes sense given the team’s strong receiving weapons and poor run-blocking offensive line. Even if the defense keeps the team in positive game script, they’ll likely pass frequently. After all, the Giants have finished in the top 10 in pass attempts in each of the past three seasons under McAdoo.
2017 Roster
The Giants added a few weapons at key skill positions, but the offensive line is still a major concern:
- QB: Eli Manning
- RB: Rashad Jennings/Paul Perkins/Shane Vereen –> Perkins/Vereen/Wayne Gallman
- WR: Odell Beckham Jr.
- WR: Victor Cruz –> Brandon Marshall
- WR: Sterling Shepard
- TE: Will Tye/Larry Donnell –> Evan Engram/Rhett Ellison
- LT: Ereck Flowers
- LG: Justin Pugh/Marshall Newhouse –> Pugh
- C: Weston Richburg
- RG: John Jerry
- RT: Bobby Hart/Newhouse –> Hart
Even after moving on from Jennings, the backfield underwhelms. Perkins — who last year had a 44.0 percent Success Rate (Football Outsiders) — is expected to function as the lead back with competition from Vereen and the fourth-round rookie Gallman. After being released by the Jets, Marshall landed back in New York with the Giants, his fifth team in nine years. With Victor Cruz gone, Marshall is slated to be the No. 2 receiver in a high-volume offense. After getting next to nothing from the tight end duo of Tye and Donnell, the Giants drafted Engram 23rd overall and signed Ellison, who ranked as the 27th-best run blocking tight end in 2016 (Pro Football Focus). With his draft position, college production, and 87th percentile SPARQ-x athleticism (PlayerProfiler), Engram has a chance to make an impact as a rookie.
On defense, Steve Spagnuolo’s dominant unit is largely unchanged:
- DE: Jason Pierre-Paul
- DT: Damon Harrison
- DT: Johnathan Hankins –> Jay Bromley
- DE: Olivier Vernon
- OLB: Jonathan Casillas
- MLB: Kelvin Sheppard/Keenan Robinson –> B.J. Goodson/Robinson
- OLB: Devon Kennard
- CB: Janoris Jenkins
- CB: Eli Apple
- SCB: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
- SS: Landon Collins
- FS: Andrew Adams/Darian Thompson
Bromley, Goodson, and Robinson were all on the team last year and know the defense, so the impact of the departures of Hankins and Sheppard should be minimized. Last year the Giants were top-10 in defensive hurries and net passing yards allowed per attempt, and they held opponents to the second-fewest rushing yards. The Giants trailed just the Denver Broncos (13) in passing touchdowns allowed (15), and they enter 2017 with PFF’s top-ranked secondary. In 2016 they finished second and fourth against the run and the pass in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and they’ll likely be a top unit again this year.
Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.
Notable Players
The Giants offense this year will likely be what it was last year: Some runs that go nowhere and a lot of OBJ slant routes.
Eli Manning, QB
After having one of the best seasons of his career in 2015 — when he was second in the league with 35 passing touchdowns and 4,426 passing yards, averaging 20.22 DraftKings points per game (PPG) — Manning was likely to regress in 2016.
That said, Manning did better last year than many people realize. His touchdown rate of 4.3 percent was the third worst of his career, but Manning outperformed his career averages in efficiency with a 63.0 percent completion rate and 2.7 percent interception rate. Three of Manning’s four best seasons in completion percentage have been with McAdoo, who seems to have rejuvenated Manning:
- 2011-13 (with Kevin Gilbride): 59.5 percent completion rate, 3.5 percent interception rate, 18.71 FanDuel PPG
- 2014-16 (with McAdoo): 62.9 percent, 2.4 percent, 21.33 PPG
Because of the pace, passing volume, and play calling, McAdoo clearly helped Manning. However, it’s also possible that Manning’s reemergence has less to do with McAdoo and more to do with Beckham, who broke out as a rookie in 2014. On a per-game basis, Eli’s been much better with Beckham than without him over the last three years:
- With Beckham (43 games): 270.74 passing YPG, 2.1 percent interception rate
- Without Beckham (5): 241.6 YPG, 7.5 percent
With just 6.7 yards per attempt (the NFL’s fifth-lowest mark) last year, Eli could underwhelm this season — but he still has OBJ to help turn short passes into long gains, and now Marshall could potentially help turn longer passes into touchdowns. If Manning maintains his level of performance and has some positive regression with his touchdowns rate, he could find his way back into a top-five campaign.
Right now Manning has an average draft position (ADP) of 127.1 in DRAFT best ball leagues. There are probably stronger pivot plays at quarterback in that range, such as Andy Dalton (121.4) or even Carson Palmer (134.2). In daily fantasy sports, recency bias made him one of the top traps early in 2016 at an elevated price. He was unprofitable to roster, as he averaged 15.02 DraftKings PPG with a -4.52 Plus/Minus and 9.0 percent ownership rate over the first five games. From then on his price dropped considerably, but Eli was still a -0.75 Plus/Minus player with a putrid 45.5 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). His ownership also dropped to less than four percent, but even that might’ve been too high.
This year, however, he might warrant some speculative exposure as a contrarian option given his increased arsenal and depressed ownership. FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. Be sure to monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views this team on a weekly basis. If you want to stack Manning with OBJ, Marshall, Shepard, or Engram, do it with our Lineup Builder.
Paul Perkins, RB
A fifth-round rookie out of UCLA last year, Perkins has decent size (5’10” and 208 lbs.) and the potential to be a three-down workhorse according to his coach. In his two final collegiate seasons, Perkins averaged 129.2 YPG and 1.0 touchdown per game from scrimmage. Last year, though, Perkins disappointed. Not until Week 14 did Perkins cross the 12-carry threshold, and as a lead back Perkins was pathetic, averaging just 70 total YPG and 8.25 DraftKings PPG on a healthy 16.0 touches across the final month of the season. On the year he was 68th at the position with 0.26 fantasy points per snap and a poor 28.2 elusive rating (PFF). Via my Rushing Expectation methodology, Perkins’ efficiency as a runner and receiver last year was in the 31st and second percentile of a 60-player sample. Nevertheless, Perkins has some volume-based upside at his 81.6 DRAFT ADP — if he can keep his starting job and earn some goal-line touches.
Shane Vereen, RB
Playing just five games last season because of torn (and re-torn) triceps, Vereen is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league when healthy. From 2013 to 2015, only Matt Forte (220), Darren Sproles (166), and Danny Woodhead (161) had more than Vereen’s 158 receptions. Although Vereen wasn’t efficient last year — 31st and sixth percentile as a runner and receiver (Rushing Expectation) — in 2015 Vereen was much better, finishing eighth with 6.3 yards per touch and ninth with 1.12 fantasy points per opportunity (PlayerProfiler). If he stays healthy and the Giants focus on quick passes this season (as they’ve done in the preseason), Vereen could lead the backfield in snaps played and maybe even scrimmage yards. Over the last four years he’s averaged 55.1 scrimmage YPG.
Wayne Gallman, RB
Even though the Giants drafted Perkins just last year, they evidently liked Gallman (6’0” and 215 lbs.) enough to draft him in the fourth round this year. In his two final seasons at Clemson, Gallman averaged 104.3 YPG and 1.1 touchdowns per game from scrimmage despite playing with a running quarterback in Deshaun Watson. With just 34th percentile SPARQ-x athleticism (PlayerProfiler), Gallman isn’t likely to have a large role early in the season, but if Perkins underwhelms as a runner Gallman will likely start to steal his early-down and goal-line carries.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR
As Freedman notes in his summer piece on the top 100 NFL players, only Randy Moss has more yards and touchdowns through his first three seasons than OBJ’s 4,122 and 35. A perpetual fantasy WR1, Beckham last year was top-five at the position with a 28.3 percent target share, second in red zone target share at 35.4 percent, and third in yards after the catch with 3.1 yards per target (PlayerProfile). Per Next Gen Stats, Beckham had a solid 2.77 average yards of separation per route. Beckham sprained his ankle in Week 2 of the preseason, but he’s expected to miss no more than two weeks with the injury. If he slips past his 5.7 DRAFT ADP, he’ll be a value.
Beckham is an elite touchdown scorer — but in comparison to Antonio Brown (+500) and Jordy Nelson (+600) he could be overvalued (+700) in the props markets to lead the league in receiving touchdowns. Since entering the NFL, he’s averaged a solid 0.58 targets per game (TPG) inside the 10-yard line. However, Antonio and Nelson have 0.77 and 0.93 TPG inside the 10 in that same span. That said, Beckham has still averaged 22.20 DraftKings PPG in his career, and he’s still likely to take multiple slant routes to the house in 2017 just to troll Adam Levitan.
Brandon Marshall, WR
An absurd 30.5 percent of Marshall’s targets were charted as ‘off target’ in 2016 — the fourth-highest mark in the NFL — so it’s possible that he could still be a good receiver with a better quarterback. No matter how bad Eli is, he’s better than the trio of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, and Geno Smith, who combined for a putrid 56.5 percent completion rate last year, which was the least productive non-rookie season of Marshall’s career in terms of receptions (59), touchdowns (3), YPG (52.5), and catch rate (46.1 percent). Just one year removed from a mammoth 109-1,502-14 campaign in 2015, Marshall has some upside as a touchdown producer given that he’s almost destined to experience positive regression with an average of 8.3 touchdowns per season over the last three years.
Sterling Shepard, WR
Leading all receivers last year with 801 snaps in the slot, Shepard is built (5’10″ and 194 lbs.) like a typical middle-of-the-field pass catcher. Although he caught eight touchdowns last year and scored on half of his 12 red-zone targets, his upside is capped with the target hog Marshall now on the team. Last year he went over 100 yards just once while finishing 54th in the league with 4.1 air yards per target. Barring a significant injury to Beckham, Marshall, or Vereen, he seems unlikely to exceed the 105 targets he got last year.
Evan Engram, TE
Behind the 2010 tight end class of Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, Dennis Pitta, and Jermaine Gresham, this year’s cohort has a chance to be the best of all time. Drafted 23rd overall, Engram was the second first-round tight end selected, after O.J. Howard (19th) and before David Njoku (29th). With Engram’s size (6’3″ and 234 lbs.) and athleticism (4.42-second 40), he’s likely to function as a hybrid wide receiver/tight end capable of stretching the field and asserting himself in the red zone, as evidenced by his 65-926-8 performance in 11 games as a senior. Of all draft-eligible tight ends, he was first last year with seven touchdowns and 2.61 yards per route run out of the slot, and he was also first with seven receptions of at least 20-plus yards. He offers little as a blocker — and rookie tight ends historically struggle to contribute — so Engram be limited for most of his first year, but in dynasty it’s almost impossible to overdraft any of the tight ends in this rookie class.
2017 Futures
The Giants currently have a 2017 win total of 9.0 games with a -115 over and -115 under. They’re also -130 to make the playoffs and even money not to. They exceeded their Pythagorean Expectation by 3.5 wins last season as they reached the playoffs for the first time in five years. That said, it’s fair to be skeptical of a team with an inconsistent quarterback and running game. That said, the NFL is a passing league, the Giants have the pass rush and secondary to disrupt opposing pass attacks, and their offense should be improved with the return of Vereen and the additions of Marshall and Engram. They look like a postseason team with nine to 10 wins.
The Giants are +1,800 to win the Super Bowl, +900 to win the NFC, and +600 to win the NFC East. The Giants hold the same odds to win the division as the Cowboys, who are primed for regression, without two linemen from last season, and likely to be without Ezekiel Elliott for six games. When they’ve had an NFL-caliber quarterback starting, the Cowboys have been the best team in the NFC East for the last three years, but with their defense the Giants could give the Cowboys problems, just as they did last year when they held Dallas to just 26 points total in their two games. Of course, until their offensive line shows that it can protect Manning and open up lanes for a running back, the Giants seem extremely unlikely even to make the NFC Championship.
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In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Giants Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
Ian Hartitz contributed research to this article.
