This fantasy preview is part of a preseason series by FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman. Other pieces in the series are available on our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
These aren’t your older brother’s 2004-07 Jaguars, who went 40-24 with head coach Jack Del Rio, quarterbacks Byron Leftwich and David Garrard, and running back Maurice Jones-Drew. These aren’t even your other older brother’s 1996-99 Jaguars, who were 45-19 with HC Tom Coughlin, quarterback Mark Brunell, running back Fred Taylor, and wide receivers Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell. The first coach in franchise history, Coughlin is now back in Jacksonville, serving as the executive vice president of football operations for a team that is 42-102 over the last nine years without a winning season in that span. For Coughlin, HC Doug Marrone, and the Jaguars, 2017 is about trying to get back to .500 — and maybe figuring out if Blake Bortles is good enough to avoid being the next Blaine Gabbert.
Play-Calling Tendencies
An offensive lineman out of Syracuse, Marrone spent a few years hopping around the league in the 1980s before transitioning to coaching in the ’90s. After a decade of traveling the college circuit as a tight ends and offensive line coach, Marrone returned to the NFL and served as the offensive line coach for the Jets for four years (2002-05) before moving to New Orleans, where he was Sean Payton’s ball boy ‘offensive coordinator’ for three years (2006-08). Marrone leveraged the success of the Saints into the HC job at Syracuse, taking over a team with seven straight losing seasons and a 26-57 record and getting them to a .500 record at 25-25 with two winning seasons and bowl victories within four years (2009-12). While at Syracuse, Marrone had Nathaniel Hackett as his OC for the 2011-12 seasons.
To the Buffalo Bills, who at that point had eight consecutive seasons of losing football, even just .500 sounded good, so they offered the HC job to Marrone, who accepted it. Hackett followed Marrone to Buffalo as the OC, presumably because he figured all upstate New York cities are the same. After a 6-10 campaign in his first year (2013), Marrone went 9-7 in 2014, leading the Bills to their first winning season in a decade. After the season, Marrone — in a career-defining move — opted out of his contract due to an obscure (and ingenious) clause that allowed him to leave the team (with his full $4 million base salary for the 2015 season) in the event of a change in ownership, which occurred following the death of owner Ralph Wilson in March 2014 and the sale of the team to Terry and Kim Pegula in October.
Although he hoped to find another HC job, Marrone reportedly didn’t interview well — and teams were turned off by the ‘disloyalty’ to his previous employers — so he joined Gus Bradley’s Jacksonville staff as the assistant HC/offensive line coach, and Hackett joined him as the quarterbacks coach. Under OC Greg Olson, the Jaguars were top-eight in pass/run ratio and top-10 in neutral pace for two seasons (2015-16), relying on the interception-prone Bortles to an alarming degree. After a Week 8 loss in which the Jags scored 16 points, Olson was fired and replaced as OC by Hackett. Following a Week 15 loss Bradley was fired and replaced by Marrone, who was named the official HC shortly after the season ended. Although there was some discussion about Chip Kelly joining the staff, Marrone decided to keep Hackett on as the OC.
For 2017, it’s likely that the Marrone/Hackett combo will have a fast-paced offense. Only once in Marrone’s seven years of affiliation with an NFL offense has it not been top-10 in neutral pace. Additionally, even though Marrone has said half-jokingly that he wants Bortles to throw the ball “zero” times per game, all but one of his NFL offenses have been top-12 in pass/run ratio. Of course, that outlier offense belonged to the 2013 Bills, who were first in the league in rush attempts thanks to running backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller as well as dual-threat quarterback E.J. Manuel. When Marrone talks about wanting to have a run-heavy offense, the 2013 Bills is probably what he has in mind. Even if the Jags experience negative game script, they’ll likely stay committed to the run as long as they can. After all, the run-heavy 2013 Bills were 6-10.
Jacksonville’s defense has on average ranked 28th in points allowed over the last two years — but last year under Todd Wash (a Bradley holdover returning to the team for his second year as defensive coordinator) it was sixth in total yards and fifth in passing yards. If the defense can keep contests competitive and Bortles can manage not to throw 17 interceptions (the seasonal average for his career), then the Jaguars really could be a top-five team in rushing attempts this year. Those carries might be horribly inefficient, but that’s another matter.
2017 Roster
There hasn’t been much turnover for the offense, which might be less than ideal:
- QB: Blake Bortles
- RB: T.J. Yeldon/Chris Ivory –> Leonard Fournette/Yeldon/Ivory
- WR: Allen Robinson
- WR: Marqise Lee –> Lee/Dede Westbrook
- WR: Allen Hurns –> Hurns/Westbrook
- TE: Julius Thomas/Marcedes Lewis –> Lewis/Mychal Rivera
- LT: Kelvin Beachum –> Branden Albert –> Cam Robinson
- LG: Patrick Omameh/Chris Reed/Tyler Shatley –> Omameh
- C: Brandon Linder
- RG: A.J. Cann
- RT: Jeremy Parnell
The No. 4 overall pick, Fournette is likely to supplant Yeldon and Ivory as the lead back sooner rather later, despite his recent preseason foot injury. Hurns played in only 11 games last year and was overtaken on the depth chart by Lee, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in the team’s first preseason game. It’s possible that the fourth-rounder Westbrook could steal some snaps from Hurns and Lee throughout the year in three-receiver sets. In February the Jaguars traded the disappointing Thomas to the Dolphins for a seventh-round pick. The ancient Lewis is expected to start with Rivera (formerly of the Raiders) playing in 12-personnel packages.
Although the Jags return four starters from last year’s offensive line, continuity is almost all the line has going for it. Linder was Pro Football Focus’ No. 5 center last year with an 86.0 overall grade, but otherwise the line is weak. Last year the Jags were 27th with 3.73 adjusted line yards per carry (Football Outsiders), and they have uncertainty at left tackle. After the Jags traded a 2018 seventh-round pick for Albert in February, Beachum was expendable and he left via free agency, signing with the Jets — and then (within the last month) Albert retired, was placed on the “left team” list, was told he needed to return his signing bonus, unretired, was placed on the reserve/retired list, and then was released. With Albert gone, the second-round rookie Robinson is expected to start at left tackle. Even though Marrone is a former line coach, this unit is suspect.
While the defense hasn’t experienced much turnover, the changes are significant:
- DE: Yannick Ngakoue/Dante Fowler
- DT: Malik Jackson
- DT: Abry Jones/Sen’Derrick Marks –> Jones/Sheldon Day
- DE: Tyson Alualu/Jared Odrick –> Calais Campbell
- OLB: Telvin Smith
- MLB: Paul Posluszny
- OLB: Myles Jack/Dan Skuta –> Jack
- CB: Jalen Ramsey
- CB: Prince Amukamara/Davon House –> A.J. Bouye
- SCB: Aaron Colvin
- SS: Jonathan Cyprien –> Barry Church
- FS: Tashaun Gipson
Since tearing his ACL in the 2014 season finale, Marks started only three games for the Jags before his release in March. His rotational snaps will be taken by the 2016 fourth-rounder Day. Replacing the mediocre Alualu/Odrick duo is the veteran free-agent acquisition Campbell, a two-time Pro-Bowler with experience as a tackle and edge player on the line. Although Ngakoue and Fowler had poor overall PFF grades of 42.9 and 55.5 last year, the front seven is still PFF’s 14th-best unit entering the season.
The secondary was a strength last year, finishing fifth in yards, touchdowns, and net yards per attempt, and it will probably be better this year. Selected No. 5 overall last year, Ramsey impressed as a rookie, allowing a passer rating of just 76.6 (PFF). Amukamara and House have been replaced by Bouye, who last year with Houston was one of the top cover cornerbacks in the league. Coming off a career year in Dallas, Church will be a competent replacement for Cyprien, who was a great run defender but mediocre cover man. PFF ranks this unit as the league’s sixth-best secondary.
Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.
Notable Players
For a team whose last winning season came in the presidency of George W. Bush, the Jags have some guys who aren’t total JAGs.
Blake Bortles, QB
Bortles is the quintessential garbage quarterback, and the Jaguars know it. Although they exercised his fifth-year option for 2018, they have seemingly gone out of their way this offseason to call attention to their desire to limit his (negative) impact on the offense. Since he entered the league in 2014, no quarterback has more than his 140 sacks; only Philip Rivers (52) has more than his 51 interceptions. Not once in his three NFL seasons has he completed even 59.0 percent of his pass attempts. Out of all 23 quarterbacks to average at least double-digit starts over the last three years, Bortles is last with a 79.6 quarterback rating, 6.05 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), and of course 11 #QBWinz.
Despite all of that, Bortles has been a top-eight DraftKings quarterback over the last two years, averaging 20.79 points per game (PPG). That’s what you get whenever you have a quarterback who doesn’t care about sacks and interceptions and is perpetually in comeback mode. The Jags haven’t been favored often with Bortles as a starter — in the last two seasons it’s happened only eight times (never on the road) — but he’s been his best when the Jags have been expected to win, averaging 22.71 DraftKings PPG with a +6.70 Plus/Minus and 75.0 percent Consistency Rating at a reasonable 6.7 percent ownership rate in large-field guaranteed prize pools.
This year FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. If we find once the season starts that the Jags are unable to run effectively and/or need to throw more to stay competitive, then it’s possible that Bortles will once again be worthy of GPP consideration when favored. Be sure to monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Jags each week. If you want to stack Bortles as a favorite with any of his upside receivers, do it with our Lineup Builder.
That said, Bortles will almost certainly have a reduced role this year. Over the last two seasons, only Drew Brees (1,300) and Rivers (1,239) have attempted more passes than Bortles (1,231). In Marrone’s two years in Buffalo, his quarterbacks ranked on average 18.5 (out of 32 teams) in pass attempts, which is why I’m avoiding Bortles at +500 to lead the league in interceptions. He has the highest implied odds in the field, but it’s unlikely Marrone and Hackett will allow Bortles to attempt enough passes to approach the league lead.
Still, given his past production and the possibility that the Jaguars will need to throw more than they want, Bortles warrants limited portfolio exposure at his average draft position (ADP) of 148.0 in DRAFT best ball leagues. After all, he was 12th in the NFL last year with his 35.0 percent completion rate under pressure (PlayerProfiler) — but PlayerProfiler also says the quarterback to whom Bortles is most comparable is currently the third-string quarterback of the Cardinals: Gabbert.
One way or another, this season for Bortles could be the worstles.
Leonard Fournette, RB
The No. 1 overall college recruit in 2014, Fournette lived up to the hype in his three seasons at Louisiana State, averaging 136.1 yards and 1.28 touchdowns from scrimmage on 20.5 touches per game across 32 contests. Blessed with elite size (6’0″ and 240 lbs.) and athleticism (4.51-second 40), Fournette even returned kicks as a freshman, averaging a respectable 26.0 yards per return with one touchdown. Still, he’s no Christian McCaffrey. He’s not a versatile all-around playmaker who lines up all over the field. In his two final seasons at LSU, Fournette averaged just 1.79 receptions per game (RPG), and he dropped an outrageous 16.7 percent of his catchable career targets (PFF). He’s an old-fashioned between-the-tackles grinder for the new era.
Here’s what I say about him in my piece on the top 100 NFL players:
Every team that spends a top-10 pick on a running back talks about wanting to rush the ball more — but Jacksonville’s offense is mediocre, its offensive line is subpar, and Fournette had only 34 receptions in his final two college seasons. Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden, Cedric Benson: All workhorse backs with 1,000-yard campaigns in their careers selected with top-five NFL picks — all disappointments as rookies. Fournette might be great someday, but maybe not this year.
Fournette’s offensive line could struggle to create running lanes for him, he might be replaced by Yeldon in passing situations more often than we anticipate, and the Jags could even use Ivory to spell Fournette in short-yardage and goal-line situations — especially since Fournette had his junior season cut short with an ankle injury and he’s missing preseason action now because of a foot injury. Although the team wants to run a lot with Fournette, it might choose to give opportunities in the regular season to the two veterans who haven’t missed any action in training camp.
Also, there’s the possibility that — given his draft status and production at LSU — Fournette isn’t taking the NFL as seriously as he should. He might be a “once-in-a-lifetime back” as Titans running back Derrick Henry says he is, but Fournette recently claimed that the NFL “was really easy” after playing in the Southeastern Conference. That doesn’t sound like a guy who’s coming into the NFL looking to earn his role. Additionally, Fournette said this after his first preseason game, in which on 12 snaps he had a mediocre 9-31-1 rushing line in addition to a 0.0 elusive rating, 0.89 yards after contact per attempt, and no missed tackles forced (PFF). If that’s what easy looks like, Fournette could struggle when he realizes the NFL is hard.
He has the potential to be a top-five volume back this year, but Fournette carries a lot of risk at his 22.1 DRAFT ADP. If people prefer McCaffrey or Joe Mixon in rookie or dynasty startup drafts, I’m fine with that. Fournette is currently tied at +400 atop the field with McCaffrey and quarterback Deshaun Watson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. In the 36 years from 1967 to 2002, when the NFL was primarily a running league, the OROY was a running back 29 times. Since then, however, 10 of the 14 OROYs have been quarterbacks or receivers. Fournette might have the talent of Adrian Peterson or Todd Gurley (2007/15 OROYs), but I’m not betting on him.
T.J. Yeldon, RB
A 2015 second-rounder out of Alabama in the harder-than-the-NFL SEC, Yeldon has been productively disappointing in his two professional seasons with his 3.9 yards per carry, 6.9 yards per receptions, and five touchdowns. That said, he has turned 11.6 carries and 4.2 targets per game into 3.2 RPG, 66.5 scrimmage yards per game, and 11.1 DraftKings PPG. For a back with good size (6’1″ and 226 lbs.), Yeldon has strong pass-catching skills with a 75.5 percent career catch rate. He’s unlikely to accumulate touchdowns, but a 35-reception, 750-yard season for Yeldon is more than possible.
Chris Ivory, RB
After opening his career as a complementary back to Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram in New Orleans, Ivory has led his teams (Jets, 2013-15; Jags, 2016) in per-game carries each of the last four years, averaging 924.8 scrimmage yards and 5.25 touchdowns per season as well as 10.30 DraftKings PPG. What’s intriguing is that he’s been able to accrue this production while playing on only 42.1 percent of the snaps in his active games. It’s likely that Ivory won’t need to steal a lot of snaps in order to limit Fournette’s upside while having almost no upside himself.
Corey Grant, RB
A top collegiate recruit in 2010, Grant redshirted at Alabama for a year before transferring to Auburn, sitting out a season due to NCAA rules, and then playing as a depth and change-of-pace running back for three years (2012-04) behind Tre Mason and Cameron Artis-Payne. Still, he proved himself to be a versatile playmaker with touchdowns as a runner, receiver, and kick returner, and at his pro day he exhibited Tyreek Hill-caliber speed (4.28-second 40) in a Giovani Bernard-esque frame (5’9″ and 201 lbs.). Undrafted in 2015, Grant was a Week 17 superstar last year with an 18-122-1 rushing stat line in his one (meaningless) start. In Week 1 of the (meaningless) preseason he had an 8-120-1 rushing line. Grant might do nothing in the regular season, but he warrants $TRONG consideration in preseason DFS.
Allen Robinson, WR
On the one hand, in 2015 A-Rob had a top-five all-time receiving season for a 22-year-old wide receiver with his 80-1,400-14 stat line in 16 games. Over the last two years only Antonio Brown (347), DeAndre Hopkins (343), Julio Jones (332), Odell Beckham (327), Mike Evans (321), and Demaryius Thomas (321) have more than his 302 targets. Last year he had 36.9 percent of the Jaguars’ air yards on 24.1 percent of their targets. Over the last two years combined he’s been a top-20 fantasy receiver with 16.48 DraftKings PPG.
On the other hand, Robinson last year was 89th in the league with 1.32 fantasy points per target and 96th with a -20.1 Production Premium (PlayerProfile). He had a lowly 1.33 yards per route run (PFF) and 2.0 yards of separation (Next Gen Stats). Additionally, in Marrone’s five years as an HC or OC — including his three years with the 2006-09 Brees-led Saints — his No. 1 receivers have averaged 121.6 targets per season for a 72.8-949.4-7.6 stat line. Given the team’s desire to throw less, Robinson seems unlikely to do much better than that. He has 1,200-yard, 12-touchdown upside, but a 1,000-yard, eight-touchdown season is more realistic.
Marqise Lee, WR
Plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness for the first two years of his career, the former second-rounder from Southern California emerged as a reliable No. 2 receiver last year on the perimeter. Amazingly, Bortles was at his best in 2016 (in terms of AY/A) when targeting Lee:
- Lee: 105 targets, 6.5 AY/A
- Hurns: 76, 5.9
- Robinson: 150, 4.9
Of course, it’s possible that Lee’s success was partially due to the absence of Hurns, who missed five entire games and a significant portion of a sixth game to a concussion and hamstring injury. In his 10 games with a healthy Hurns, Lee averaged 10.71 DraftKings PPG; six games without Hurns, 13.05.
Only twice in his 39 career contests has Lee been targeted at least 10 times. Never has he had 100 yards receiving and a touchdown in the same NFL game. He’s in a contract year and cheap at his 187.2 DRAFT ADP, but his upside is limited.
Allen Hurns, WR
With a breakout 64-1,031-10 second-year campaign in 2015, Hurns joined Victor Cruz, Rod Smith, and Steve Watson as the only undrafted wide receivers since the 16-game season commenced in 1978 to have a 1,000-10 performance within their first three NFL seasons. In 2016, Hurns experienced some expected negative regression, and he also missed substantial time to injuries while struggling in his transition to the slot, where he played 64.9 percent of his snaps. Of the three starting receivers he’s currently the only one not slated to be a free agent next season, and Bortles has been most productive over the last three years when throwing to him (7.6 AY/A), but in Marrone’s offense Hurns looks like a player with 800-yard, six-touchdown upside. He’s replaceable — and the Jags have someone capable of replacing him.
Dede Westbrook, WR
Westbrook is one of a few fourth-round rookies who could crush in 2017. Last year at Oklahoma, Westbrook was a finalist for the Heisman and Paul Hornung awards, which respectively honor the best and most versatile players in the country — and he won the Biletnikoff award as the most outstanding receiver in college football. Despite his studliness, Westbrook fell to Day 3 in the draft because of off-field issues (à la Tyreek Hill last year), but as a player he was deserving of a Day 2 selection.
He’s old-ish for a rookie (24 in December) and also small (6’0″ and 174 lbs.), but Westbrook is an athlete (4.36-second 40, 120-inch broad). Some people think of Westbrook as a one-year wonder, but they’re wrong. Before transferring to OU, he tore up the junior college ranks as ESPN’s No. 3 JC receiver in 2014, when at Blinn College in eight games he had a ridiculous 76-1,487-13 receiving campaign as a 21-year-old redshirt sophomore. Over his last three college seasons, he averaged a per-game receiving stat line of 5.9-110.4-1.0 in 34 games. He’s not just a one-year guy.
Given his receiving production, big-play ability, versatility (101 yards rushing and a punt return touchdown in 2016), athletic profile, and draft range, Westbrook is 2012 T.Y. Hilton (minus Andrew Luck). An outside receiver who can play in the slot, Westbrook has the talent to become the No. 2 receiver in Jacksonville. He could push both Lee and Hurns for snaps.
Marcedes Lewis, TE
Lewis is the Jags version of Jason Witten: He’s been with the franchise longer than anybody else, and somehow he’s still starting games. In 2010 he had a Black Swan 10-touchdown campaign. In the six years since then he has 11 touchdowns. He’s the oldest 33-year-old human on the planet.
2017 Futures
In the futures market the Jaguars currently have a 2017 win total of 6.5 games with a -165 over and +135 under. They’re also +300 to make the playoffs and -400 not to. I would bet my soul that the Jags won’t make the playoffs, but there’s little upside in that wager. Some sharp money is on the Jags to win at least seven games — that’s how a team without even six wins in any season over the last six years is favored to go above 6.5 — but that line feels high.
Last year the Jags had a Pythagorean Expectation of 5.9 wins, and Warren Sharp (writing for Rotoworld) gives them the easiest schedule of 2017 — but the NFL is a passing league, and the Jags have a horrible (one might even say “Bortible”) starting quarterback. Running the ball doesn’t change the fact that Bortles is their quarterback. It just means he’s bad enough to make them think it’s somehow optimal to call plays that inherently result in fewer yards per play than passing plays. Given Marrone’s history of turning around Syracuse and Buffalo, I don’t want to bet against the Jags — but I also do. Why should I be optimistic about a team with a poor offensive line and quarterback? That the Jags drafted a running back with a top-five pick doesn’t make me trust their decision-making process in the first place.
The Jaguars are currently +10,000 to win the Super Bowl, +4,000 to win the AFC, and +550 to win the AFC South. The Jaguars haven’t won their division since Coughlin was HC. The AFC South didn’t even exist yet.
Here’s one trend to note: In his 34 games as HC, Marrone is 15-9 against the spread as an underdog, including a 2-0 record with the Jags at the end of last season. Marrone’s .625 ATS winning percentage as a dog might be indicative of what we’ll see this season: A team that overperforms low expectations but still loses a lot of games.
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In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Jaguars Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
Ian Hartitz contributed research to this article.
