2017-18 NBA Fantasy Preview

This has been perhaps the most eventful offseason in memory with unprecedented player movement, not just by volume, but by the caliber of superstar talent that changed hands. These previews will take stock of those moves and break down what they mean for each team on both a macro and micro level. Since daily fantasy NBA is perhaps the most value-driven and price-sensitive sport, and decisions often boil down to a player’s point-per-dollar ratio, the analysis here will focus less on who profiles as a cash-game or guaranteed prize pool (GPP) play and more on how notable players fit within their teams on a higher level and how that affects their outlook for this season.

Atlanta Hawks

The losses of Paul Millsap and Tim Hardaway Jr. will further stretch an offense that ranked just 27th in efficiency last season and was already thin on secondary playmakers. Without one of Millsap or Hardaway on the court, the Hawks’ Offensive Rating plummeted to 98.0, which would’ve ranked dead last by a significant margin. It’s no coincidence that two of Atlanta’s biggest recurring issues on that end of the floor — turnovers and finishing in the paint — aligned with Dennis Schroder‘s, as he’s led the team in usage rate in each of the last three seasons. This year, more than ever, the Hawks will go as he does. And things aren’t off to a great start: He was charged with misdemeanor battery and could face a suspension.

For the Hawks to even marginally improve on offense, Schroder will need to show significant growth in two areas: 1) off-the-dribble shooting and 2) getting to the line. He was stellar on catch-and-shoot attempts (59.8% eFG) and on zero dribbles (58.2% eFG) last season, but his efficiency fell off a cliff on pull-up jumpers (41.3% eFG) and when he was forced to take at least one dribble (47.0% eFG). On top of that, Schroder was one of five qualified starting guards with a usage rate north of 25.0 percent and free throw rate lower than .211. While his EuroBasket play was encouraging, he’ll need to translate that (and then some) or risk getting the Rajon Rondo treatment in an otherwise predictable offense void of shot creators.

Coach Mike Budenholzer tends to run a deeper rotation that varies from game to game, and he doesn’t mind riding his second unit late in games if they’re playing well. That makes it tough to confidently roster Hawks players in general, and particularly this season as Atlanta projects to be among the worst teams in the league; they’ll likely be behind early and often, and starters’ minutes could be curtailed if they’re behind by double digits heading into the fourth quarter. Schroder will profile as a GPP option on most nights but could enter the cash-game mix in certain situations, particularly when playing uptempo. In 22 games against top-10 paced teams, he consistently crushed value on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):

Taurean Prince is fully expected to take over the starting job vacated by Hardaway, and his defensive potential (1.6 steals and 1.0 block per 36 minutes) plus an expected usage bump makes him an intriguing target, particularly if he’s priced around or below $4,500 on DraftKings. He averaged 22.0 DraftKings points per game over the final 10 games of last season when he moved into the starting lineup. Dewayne Dedmon is worth monitoring as well, and though he’s moving from one of the league’s more efficient offenses in San Antonio to one of the least efficient in Atlanta, it’s tough to ignore the 23.7 DraftKings points he averaged in the 25 games in which he played at least 20 minutes last season. Schroder used the seventh-most possessions in the league as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, and Dedmon figures to be involved in a healthy amount of those play types this season as his roll man. Even better news is that Budenholzer is encouraging him to start shooting 3s.

Boston Celtics

It’s rare to see a team lock up a No. 1 seed with 53 wins, make it to the conference finals, and experience the churn that the Celtics did this offseason. In fact, it’s never happened before in league history. They’ll return just four players from last season — the fewest of any team — and will have to replace four of their starters. Further, they’ll have to deal with many inexperienced players: Five of the 14 players on their current roster have yet to play a single NBA minute.

If there’s a coach equipped to not only find a way to make all these players fit but get the most out of them, it’s Brad Stevens. It’s a next-to-impossible task even for him to expect that process to happen over the course of a month or two, however, particularly with a condensed training camp and preseason. It’ll take time for Kyrie Irving to adjust to the various play types and actions that Stevens will put him in. Irving isolated on 24.1 percent of his possessions last season, the sixth-highest rate in the league. For comparison, no Celtics player had an isolation rate higher than 9.1 percent. It’ll take time for Gordon Hayward to figure out his role, which, according to Irving, will be to “… run the floor, be aggressive, play defense, offensive rebound, attack the defensive glass, and do everything.” Basically, everything but score, initiate the offense, or handle the ball. Al Horford averaged 67.3 touches per game, a mark that trailed only Thomas’ and one he’s unlikely to replicate with Hayward in the fold.

This is a wait-and-see situation initially, although Irving is the best bet to hit the ground running in fantasy given he should dominate usage in a similar manner to how Thomas did last season. Irving’s per-36 averages over the past three seasons with LeBron James off the court were eerily similar to Thomas’ 2016-17 averages:

• Irving, per-36 without James (2014-17): 30.6 points, 6.3 assists, 3.3 turnovers
• Thomas, per-36 (2016-17): 30.8 points, 6.3 assists, 2.9 turnovers

It’ll be interesting to see how much slippage we’ll see from the Celtics defensively given they lost four of their six best defenders this offseason according to Defensive Real Plus-Minus and Defensive Rating. That doesn’t even include Avery Bradley either, who graded out poorly by most defensive metrics but passes the eye test. To make matters worse, they also lost their four best rebounders from last season. This isn’t necessarily a defense to target initially, but it’s one worth keeping an eye on at least given they played at an above-average pace (12th) and should remain one of the league’s worst rebounding teams.

Brooklyn Nets

Under new head coach Kenny Atkinson, the Nets played at the fastest pace of any team since the 1991-92 season, which produced mixed results given they ranked an abysmal 28th in offensive efficiency in the process. Turnovers were a major contributing factor, as they coughed it up at the second-highest rate, although it didn’t help they were without starting point guard Jeremy Lin for 46 games. Results aside, Atkinson made the team’s identity abundantly clear last season, and their moves this offseason only further cements their commitment to a perimeter-oriented attack that relies on ball movement.

Breakneck pace? A heavy diet of 3-point attempts? Smaller, interchangeable lineups? On paper, this has the makings of a potential fantasy gold mine. In reality, however, there’s cause for concern given no Nets player averaged more than 29.6 minutes per game last year; their reserves played more minutes (22.6) than any other team in the league. Factor in the Nets’ infusion of talent this summer and they could be too deep now for more than a select player or two to stand out.

What is clear is that the offense will run through Lin and D’Angelo Russell. Both will only improve under the tutelage of Atkinson, who is renowned for getting the most out of young point guards — most notably with Lin during “Linsanity” and Jeff Teague in Atlanta. Russell’s time in Los Angeles prepared him to take on a variety of roles: He seemingly shifted from starter to reserve, point guard to off-guard, and initiator to playing off the ball every other game. While Lin’s presence may be seen as an obstacle, it actually allows Russell to play off the ball, where he was far more effective last season. Of all half-court play types, the only one Russell finished lower than the 56th percentile in was as the pick-and-roll ball-handler:

• Handoff: 1.09 points per possession, 84th percentile
• Isolation: 0.95 points per possession, 75th percentile
• Cut: 1.38 points per possession, 75th percentile
• Off screens: 0.98 points per possession, 61st percentile
• Spot up: 0.98 points per possession, 56th percentile
• Pick-and-roll ball-handler: 0.76 points per possession, 41st percentile

It remains to be seen how the wing and frontcourt minutes will be distributed, with Rondae-Hollis Jefferson, DeMarre Carroll, and Allen Crabbe expected to play prominent roles. Atkinson has already said that Hollis-Jefferson could see some time at center given his 7’3″ wingspan. Hollis-Jefferson took over as the Nets’ primary power forward at the start of February and saw a sizable bump in his rebound rate from 11.7 to 15.5 percent as a result. That allowed him to exceed his salary-based expectations by an average of 5.29 FanDuel points with 74.3 percent Consistency over this final 34-game stretch.

Charlotte Hornets

Another year, another stop on the Dwight Howard revival tour. This time, however, he’s found his best stylistic fit so far under coach Steve Clifford, who served as an assistant to Stan Van Gundy during Howard’s prime years in Orlando. That said, Charlotte ran a post-up on only 4.7 percent of their possessions last season — the fourth-lowest rate — so Howard isn’t going to get the post touches he desires. Where his presence could pay dividends is in the pick-and-roll. Kemba Walker was the ball-handler in pick-and-rolls on a staggering 54.9 percent of his plays, and he led the league with 12.0 points scored per game off of them. Cody Zeller is a passable roll man (54th percentile), but Howard has been far more effective in that role in each of the past two seasons (83rd percentile last year, 71st percentile in 2015-16).

The biggest news here is the torn left elbow ligament Nicolas Batum suffered, which will sideline him for at least 20-30 games. The Hornets saw their offensive efficiency drop by 2.9 points per 100 possessions without him on the court, going from what would be the 12th-best offense to the 21st. Batum’s absence will be even more impactful given the already-shaky depth of Charlotte’s wing rotation. They’ll have to lean on Malik Monk, Treveon Graham, and Dwayne Bacon now; the first two have been sidelined for significant stretches this offseason due to injury. Jeremy Lamb, who Clifford was already raving about, is easily the biggest beneficiary and has already been named the starter. He averaged 31.6 DraftKings points as a starter last season and 31.1 points when he played at least 28 minutes.

Whenever Batum does return, it’s worth noting that his home/road splits have held consistently true during his two seasons in Charlotte. He’s averaged over six more FanDuel points at home (top) compared to on the road (bottom):

What’s just as striking is that the ownership differential was only 2.4 percent on average between the two samples; there’s still an edge here.

Chicago Bulls

Remember that time GarPax traded Gary Harris and Jusuf Nurkic for Doug McDermott? This is what they have left to show for it.

(The Bulls gave up the future rights to those Off-White 1s in the Jimmy Butler deal, which is why the tag is still on).

Cleveland Cavaliers

While the acquisitions of Isaiah Thomas and Dwyane Wade have dominated all the headlines this summer, arguably the Cavs’ most important player heading into this season remains a mere afterthought. More than figuring out Wade’s role or integrating Thomas into the offense, it’s imperative for coach Tyronn Lue to find a way to maximize the talent of Kevin Love — remember him? He was considered a top-10 player by some once upon a time when his role extended far beyond spotting up and being fed predictable looks in the post or on pick-and-pops.

Love showed some signs of life in the limited 363-minute sample when Irving was off the court last season. His usage rate jumped from 24.2 to 31.2 percent, he got to the line at a much higher rate, and, despite his significantly larger role, there was barely a difference in his scoring efficiency (54.5% eFG with Irving on, 53.2% eFG with him off). We’ll see how much Love can recapture his Minnesota form, but it’s at least encouraging that Lue plans to start him at the center spot from the outset alongside LeBron James and Jae Crowder. That will help open things up for a Cleveland offense that leaned too heavily on isolations (league-high 11.9 percent frequency) and should ease their transition to more of a motion offense predicated on ball movement and off-ball cuts. The latter is something Crowder excelled at last year, converting 79 percent of shots taken immediately after cuts, which ranked fourth-best among 137 players who attempted at least 50 such shots. If Lue can get Love consistent touches around the elbows, where he’s proven to be an excellent facilitator, this offense can be elite yet again.

The Cavs will be deeper this season than perhaps any Cavs team in recent memory, and it’s possible that by February the likes of Derrick Rose, Iman Shumpert, Jeff Green, and Channing Frye are out of the rotation completely (Rose if Lue decides to use Wade as the primary backup behind Thomas at the point). While Wade has proven he can provide just enough spacing via cuts to the basket or corner 3s (of which he’s converted at a 37.6 percent rate since 2010), Rose has shown no such inclination. Rose was a solid bargain at the veteran’s minimum but is a poor and potentially problematic fit within an offense that is at its best when the ball is in LeBron’s hands surrounded by capable shooters. His inability to space the floor is an even bigger issue now that Wade has been named the starting shooting guard ahead of J.R. Smith.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs haven’t had a rookie start more than 35 games for 22 straight seasons and counting, with the most recent being Jason Kidd in 1994-95. That streak is about to be broken in a major way this year: The future is now in Dennis Smith Jr. There hasn’t been this level of excitement around the team since they won a title, and for good reason. Smith is not only an immense talent but will inject some much-needed life into an offense that played at the league’s second-slowest pace last year and ranked just 22nd in efficiency. Coach Rick Carlisle has already talked about playing faster — a canned line we often hear from head coaches during the offseason — but one that he’s already followed through on by naming Dirk Nowitzki his starting center with Nerlens Noel off the bench. Carlisle proved he can have success playing uptempo as recently as 2014-15: Those 50-win Mavs were ninth in pace and third in points per game (105.2).

Carlisle has mentioned putting multiple point guards on the floor at the same time to not only speed up the pace but to add more playmaking in general as part of his flow offense. With the point of attack now tilting more toward the likes of Smith and Yogi Ferrell, it’ll be interesting to see what that will mean for Harrison Barnes, who subsisted on a heavy diet of isolations last season. He isolated on 24.5 percent of his possessions, the second-highest rate in the league. Barnes still hasn’t shown much of a feel in pick-and-rolls (42% eFG, 0.74 PPP), so talk of him being more involved in those play types should be taken with a grain of salt. He did prove adept at playing off the ball on spot-ups (75th percentile) and cuts (94th percentile), however. Either way, Smith’s arrival makes it highly unlikely Barnes will replicate his 25.5 percent usage rate from a year ago.

While there’s a lot to be excited about long-term, particularly with the Smith-Noel pairing, this is an offense that will undergo a significant shift in their offensive identity with a condensed preseason and with a rookie point guard running the show. There will be expected growing pains early on, and given Carlisle’s hesitance to trust rookies we’ll have to see how much leeway Smith will be given to play through his mistakes. The Mavs are deepest at both guard spots with a pair of experienced veterans Carlisle trusts in J.J. Barea and Devin Harris ready off the bench.

Seth Curry is without a timetable for a return due to a stress reaction in his left tibia, so it’ll be interesting to see what the Mavs’ backcourt rotation looks like from the outset. Ferrell is expected to get the first shot at the starting job with Barea and Harris providing depth, but we could see Carlisle return to more traditional lineups with Nowitzki and Noel up front alongside Wesley Matthews and Barnes on the wing.

Denver Nuggets

If the Nuggets aren’t at or near the top of your League Pass rankings this season, you’re clearly doing it wrong. Things really started clicking for them in mid-December once Nikola Jokic entered the starting lineup and Gary Harris returned from a foot injury. From that point forward, they led the league in offensive efficiency while playing at the league’s sixth-fastest pace over the final 57 games. Only the Golden State Warriors generated more points off cuts, a testament mostly to Jokic, who at 22 is already one of the best passing big men this league has seen. His 28.8 percent assist rate was the highest single-season mark ever among players listed at 6’10” or taller (min. 2,000 minutes).

As if they didn’t already have enough playmaking up front, they went ahead and signed Paul Millsap. He’s of a similar ilk to Draymond Green — a heady, floor-spacing big who can make smart reads and play multiple positions. Atlanta’s offense fell off considerably over the past three seasons without him, from a 105.9 Offensive Rating with him on the court to a 100.4 rating with him off. Millsap’s addition will only help Harris, who had the highest Consistency Rating among all Nuggets players on both DraftKings and FanDuel and has developed into one of the league’s best off-ball players. He finished in the 92nd percentile on spot-ups and in transition last year while averaging an impressive 1.39 points per possession off of cuts.

For all the hype around Jokic, he fell short of his salary-based expectations more often than not on FanDuel over the final three months of last season and didn’t fare much better on DraftKings. He was aggressively priced on both sites, and at one point his salary hit $11,000 on FanDuel and just short of that on DraftKings ($10,800). Even factoring in some natural improvement, it could be tough to roster the Joker with much regularity in cash games if this trend carries over to this season.

One of the biggest position battles heading into the season involves Jamal Murray, who’s battling it out with Emmanuel Mudiay for the starting point guard job. Murray appears the favorite to win out, and though his rookie season was a bit of a mixed bag (11.9 PER, -0.3 VORP, 104th of 159 qualified guards in TS%), he’s still just 20 years old and appears primed to make a significant jump in his second year. Playing alongside Jokic and Millsap is ideal given he isn’t a traditional playmaking point guard and was very effective off the ball on catch-and-shoot opportunities (54.7% eFG) and cuts (70th percentile).

Detroit Pistons

While the Pistons have won 81 games over the past two seasons — the most they’ve won in back-to-back seasons since 2007-09 — they still don’t have a single playoff win to show for it since Stan Van Gundy took over as head coach and president of basketball operations. A lot of that falls on Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond, who will be owed a combined $127.4 million over the next three years. That’s a major problem considering Detroit was 16.4 points better per 100 possessions with both on the bench last season.

Jackson was a shell of himself due to lingering knee tendinitis that sidelined him for the first 21 games and led to an eventual shutdown that extended into the summer and lasted 16 weeks. His progress through the preseason has been encouraging as he continues to work his way into game shape, and the hope is that he’ll be cleared for a normal load of about 30 minutes for the season-opener. Either way, Jackson enters this season with more questions than answers surrounding his status and comes with major minutes downside with Ish Smith looming. For what it’s worth, Smith handily outplayed Jackson in the preseason.

While Jackson’s inconsistent play could be explained by an injury that sapped his explosiveness, Drummond suffered mostly from a lack of effort and energy, particularly on the defensive end. His insistence on posting up has been a total failure, as he shot just 41.9 percent from the post last season, which ranked in the 20th percentile. That Drummond was more efficient from the free throw line (0.74 points per possession) than on post-ups (0.73 PPP) tells you all you need to know about the state of his post game. Perhaps offseason surgery to repair a deviated septum will help his overall energy level and endurance, but he remains better suited for GPPs, as he also comes with minutes downside. Drummond averaged just 6.7 minutes per game in the fourth quarter last year, which was only the eighth-most among Pistons players.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope led the Pistons in minutes per game in each of the past two seasons, which bodes well for Avery Bradley, who is likely to do the same. The concern here is with his rebounding, which will likely drop as he moves from a Boston squad that ranked 27th in rebound rate to a Detroit one that rebounded at a top-five rate. No guard has finished with a rebound rate higher than 7.7 percent over the past three seasons when sharing the court with Drummond, which could be a potential bad fantasy omen for Bradley, who recorded a career-high 10.1 percent rebound rate last year.

And finally: As the NBA season gathers, my Boban Marjanovic watch begins.

Golden State Warriors

While they’ll face more competition with Oklahoma City, Houston, and Boston reloading this summer, there’s little reason to expect any sort of significant drop-off from the Warriors. They quietly had one of the best offseasons, re-signing all of their key free agents while adding a couple more floor-spacers to their bench in Omri Casspi and Nick Young. Golden State will also reap the benefits from a revamped schedule that provides added rest between games, fewer back-to-backs, 4,000 fewer miles traveled, and, in turn, less incentive to rest their key players. Only two of their 15 losses last season came when their starters and Andre Iguodala all played.

The downside of having the league’s No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense is that it led to quite a few blowouts. Draymond Green was rested for the entire fourth quarter 19 times last year, while Stephen Curry sat out of 25. Curry averaged just 6.0 fourth-quarter minutes, which was 10th-most among Warriors players. Conventional wisdom suggests targeting their starters in games with close spreads, but that didn’t have much predictive value relative to their salary-based expectations in the regular season:

A few actionable trends emerge when comparing the Warriors’ Plus/Minus values to the point spread:

• As a favorite by at least 14.5 points, Klay Thompson lived his best life with a +9.08 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 81 percent Consistency. #ChinaKlay
• Iggy excelled in close games (favored by six or fewer points), leading the team in Plus/Minus and Consistency on DraftKings and FanDuel.
• Curry exceeded his salary-based expectations just 36 percent of the time when favored by six or fewer points, while Green had the lowest DraftKings Plus/Minus (-4.7) among regulars in those situations.

Houston Rockets

When your biggest concern heading into the season is how James Harden and Chris Paul will adjust to playing with each other, life is pretty good. Yes, there could be a bit of a feeling-out period, as both players ranked in the top-seven in time of possession and less than 12.7 percent of their shot attempts were catch-and-shoots. That said, that doesn’t mean they aren’t adept at playing off the ball too; they just haven’t had to as much in years past. Harden and Paul have a combined 61.0 effective field goal percentage over the past three seasons on catch-and-shoot jumpers, plus having their minutes staggered and coach Mike D’Antoni’s offensive ingenuity should help alleviate some concerns. There are a number of ball-dominant duos in the league that have had success (Kyrie and LeBron, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan).

With Paul in the fold, it’ll be interesting to see if Harden’s minutes come down at all. He played through three different ailments toward the end of last year and leads the league in total minutes played over the past three seasons with 9,053. Keeping Harden fresh and 100 percent heading into the playoffs will be a priority given he looked like a shell of himself in the conference semifinals against the Spurs, which culminated in a 39-point blowout to end the series. Perhaps getting added breathers while playing off the ball when Paul initiates the offense will serve as enough rest.

Clint Capela said he’d like to average 28 minutes per game this season after finishing at 23.9 last year, which is very realistic given Nene Hilario is coming off a ruptured groin injury and will have his workload limited throughout the season. In the 29 games in which Capela played at least 25 minutes, he averaged 31.1 DraftKings points per game. Among all players who used at least 3.0 possessions per game as the roll man in pick-and-rolls, he finished with the highest field goal percentage (60.1%). Add another pick-and-roll maestro to the mix in Paul, and Capela’s outlook improves even further.

Indiana Pacers

Only two teams (Sacramento and Boston) lost more in weighted usage this summer than Indiana, who will not only have to adjust to life without Paul George but also have to come to grips with the fact they turned him into Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis. Oladipo will have as good an opportunity as any to turn back the clock and replicate his 2014-15 numbers in Orlando when he posted a career-high 25.1 percent usage rate. He hasn’t proven to be much more than a volume scorer at this point, as his career 52.7 true shooting percentage is well below league-average (55.2%). He’ll be a fantasy-relevant player regardless: He’ll see more than enough usage to cover for his inefficiency. Oladipo will be leaned on even more than usual early in the season with Glenn Robinson III expected to miss three to four months following ankle surgery.

Oladipo’s splits last season with and without Russell Westbrook on the court were notable:

• With Westbrook on (per-36): 16.1 points, 2.4 assists, 2.2 free throw attempts, 18.9% usage rate
• With Westbrook off (per-36): 20.9 points, 4.3 assists, 3.6 free throw attempts, 29.5% usage rate

Enough burying the lede — we’re really here for all of the Myles Turner. He has a legitimate chance at averaging one 3, one steal, and two blocks per game this season — something that’s never been done before in league history, let alone by a 21-year-old. What’s most encouraging is that Turner managed to be an even more efficient scorer with George off the floor last season, and that was with a 2.8 percent bump in his usage rate. That shows he’s up to the task of taking on more of the offensive burden, which remains a concern for Thaddeus Young, whose true shooting percentage dropped by almost 10 percent with George off the court. The only blemish on an otherwise stellar sophomore season for Turner was a post-All Star break decline that was likely tied to fatigue as his minutes rose. He should be more equipped to handle the rigors of a full season heading into this year as he continues to add to his frame.

Speaking of frames, Al Jefferson reportedly lost 400 pounds since last season (there may be an extra 0 in there somewhere) . . .  so that’s a thing.

Los Angeles Clippers

There may not be a team with a wider range of outcomes than the Clippers this season. Losing CP3 is reason enough: There’s no one in the league that dictates an offense to the extent he does, and it’s not just a matter of usage. It’s no coincidence that his teams have finished above league-average in pace just twice. It’s because Paul is always methodically probing opposing defenses with the ball in his hands looking for weaknesses and mismatches, while at the same time maneuvering his teammates in a way to best exploit those weaknesses. Paul has gotten the most out of his teammates for years now; it comes as no surprise that J.J. Redick and DeAndre Jordan have consistently seen their scoring efficiency dip over the past three seasons without him on the court.

Coach Doc Rivers will lean on Blake Griffin to initiate more of the offense now in Paul’s absence. Griffin’s assist percentage jumped from 21.5 to 29.4 with Paul off the court last season while his true shooting percentage actually increased slightly. He’s proven to be the exception in needing Paul to facilitate his offense. Even more notable is the Clippers played at a top-five pace (101.26) when Griffin was on the court without Paul, as opposed to a bottom-11 pace (97.79) when the two shared the court. That enabled Griffin to average 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in that split. Given a reasonable projection of 35 minutes, that comes out to 44.5 DraftKings points per game, which would’ve ranked 12th last year behind guys like Durant, Curry, and Lillard.

While we can forecast the production of Griffin and Danilo Gallinari with relative confidence, it’s not quite as easy with Jordan. Griffin and Gallo have proven they can succeed outside systems, whereas it’s tough to parse how much of Jordan’s success was directly attributed to Paul’s presence. What kind of an adjustment period will there be playing alongside a new backcourt returning just one player? Will those lobs still be there when he’s running pick-and-rolls with Griffin instead? These are a few of the many questions surrounding this team, and ones we likely won’t get the answer to until the season tips off. One thing we do know is that Milos Teodosic is already one of the league’s best passers and will make late-night NBA Twitter fun as hell.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers’ cup continues to runneth over with young talent, but the question remains: Can we trust any of them? There seemed to be little rhyme or reason to coach Luke Walton’s maddeningly inconsistent rotations last season. Their bench ranked second in the league in minutes per game (21.3), and before Lou Williams was traded no guard averaged more than 27.4 minutes; nine players averaged between 20-28 minutes. Walton seemed to prefer making hockey substitutions and had no issue keeping his full second unit on the floor late in games when they were playing well.

Early indications are that we’ll see a lot of the same carryover to this year. Walton has already made his priority clear: “Our emphasis is going to be defense, defense, defense, and guys that are committed to playing defense are going to have a better shot than guys who aren’t giving the same effort on defense. We’re going to try different lineups, different groups together, but they’ve been in here working so hard all summer, they’re just excited that it’s here finally. They get to do it for real now.” Don’t be surprised to see a starter get the quick hook if they miss a defensive assignment or two.

Lonzo Ball lived up to to the hype during Summer League and was all that we expected: an exceptional passer with a natural feel of the game and grasp of space who struggled to shoot outside and consistently break defenses down in the half court. What stuck out just as much this offseason as anything he did on the court was Walton saying he’ll keep a close eye on Ball’s minutes this year, as they don’t want to overuse him as a rookie. We saw how former No. 2 overall pick Russell was handled last year with his minutes and role in constant flux; we’ll just have to hope Ball won’t face a similar fate.

For a record 72nd straight year, every player in the league came into camp in the best shape of their lives and dropped 20 pounds. Julius Randle actually looks the part though. The early returns have been promising, but he’s facing a potential logjam at power forward with Larry Nance Jr. and Kyle Kuzma behind him. Kuzma, in particular, has looked like the best player whenever he’s stepped on the court this summer; Walton will have no choice but to give him minutes if he’s able to keep up this level of play.

With all the hype around Ball and Kuzma, Brandon Ingram has gotten a bit overlooked. He made big strides as a scorer after the All-Star break, upping his effective field goal percentage from 40.9 to 50.4 percent despite significantly higher usage. Ingram’s added strength and improved jumper paid dividends in the second half, as he shot 67 percent in the restricted area (52.4% pre-break) and 47 percent from mid-range (31.6% pre-break). He’ll look to build upon that this season, hopefully extending his range beyond the 3-point line, and he’ll need to continue to be better off the ball with Ball expected to initiate most of the offense.

Memphis Grizzlies

This will continue to be a two-man show headlined by Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, perhaps more so than ever with the departures of Zach Randolph and Tony Allen. Both Conley and Gasol posted career-highs in usage rate last season and there’s little reason to suspect things will be any different this year. Gasol reinvented himself under coach David Fizdale and added elements to his game we hadn’t seen before, getting out in transition to lead fast breaks and attempting over four times as many 3s last season than he did in the previous eight combined. Even more impressive is that he hit 38.8 percent of them. Gasol and Conley continue to be masterful at running the two-man game, and Conley was within striking distance of the 50-40-90 club despite attempting over two more shots per game.

The Grizzlies have no choice but to continue to lean heavily on Conley and Gasol given how little they’ve gotten from Chandler Parsons, and we’ve gotten a glimpse of the toll it can take. They’ve missed a total of 77 games over the past two seasons, and it’ll be interesting to see if their efficiency suffers (likely) or if their overall play declines during the second half of the season (possible) under this heavy workload. With Ben McLemore already out with a fractured metatarsal and Parsons having undergone three straight season-ending surgeries, things could get ugly fast if Conley and Gasol are operating at less than 100 percent.

Miami Heat

Miami was . . . aggressive this summer, going on an obscene spending spree in excess of $194 million on Dion Waiters, Josh Richardson, Kelly Olynyk, and James Johnson. This was likely an overreaction after losing their players to a league-leading 328 games due to injury or illness last year. Either way, they’ll enter as one of the league’s deepest teams, and for that very reason it’s tough to have overwhelming optimism about the prospects of any single Heat player. We can point to highly-productive stretches from a number of them last year, but they come with a big caveat given Miami was rarely at full strength.

Hassan Whiteside remains the headliner here, tying Rudy Gobert for the fourth-most double-doubles (58) while finishing 16th in DraftKings points per minute (1.28) among qualifiers. He’s done well cutting down on his foul rate in each of the past three seasons but still fell victim to defensive lapses or a general lack of effort that got him benched during fourth quarters. Whiteside averaged 7.3 fourth-quarter minutes last year, which was fewer than reserves Tyler Johnson (10.2), Johnson (9.4), Richardson (8.4), and Wayne Ellington (8.3). He’ll need to get into the 34-36 minute range to become a cash-game option, which seems unlikely with the addition of Olynyk and the Heat selecting Bam Adebayo in the draft.

Either way, February 2nd: Whiteside vs. Joel Embiid. It’s going down.

With Rodney McGruder likely to miss three to six months due to a stress fracture in his leg, Richardson is a prime candidate to take over as the starting small forward. He showed nice statistical versatility down the stretch last year, averaging 1.9 3s, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes over the final 14 games.

Milwaukee Bucks

Only the Wizards will return a greater percentage of their regular season minutes, so the Bucks will lean on internal development to push for a top-four seed in the East this year. That’s a sensible approach for a team whose oldest starters are Khris Middleton (26) and Tony Snell (25). Milwaukee will continue to be led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was the only player in the league to lead his team in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks last season. He was also one of two players (Draymond being the other) to finish with 100 assists, 100 steals, and 100 blocks. This is a once-in-a-generation talent whose combination of length, handle, and court vision is unprecedented. And he’s only 22. Giannis still has plenty of room to get even better offensively, as he had the lowest field goal percentage from mid-range among players with at least 200 attempts last year (33.4%) and didn’t fare much better from beyond the arc (27.2%). As the league leader in combined steals and blocks, he’ll have even more value on FanDuel this season with steals and blocks now worth three points each.

Middleton missed the first three months of last season after undergoing surgery for a severe hamstring injury. He played well upon his return before falling off in the playoffs and will likely go overlooked to start the year after having a full summer to work his way back to 100 percent. Middleton’s per-minutes averages were largely in line with his 2015-16 numbers; the main difference was that he averaged 5.4 fewer minutes as the team eased him back from injury. He’s just two seasons removed from finishing in the top-50 in DraftKings points per game, and there’s little reason to think he won’t be able to get back to that point.

We’re all familiar with Giannis, Middleton, and reigning Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon, but perhaps the most intriguing young Buck to keep an eye on is Thon Maker. The Bucks went 20-11 to close the season once he became a full-time starter, and their projected lineup for the season opener (Brogdon, Snell, Giannis, Middleton, and Maker) outscored opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions in 223 total minutes. Maker’s emergence as a legit stretch center is crucial for a team that attempted and made the fewest 3s last season. His minutes upside is capped with the presence of Greg Monroe, but his per-36 averages (1.8 3s, 7.3 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 0.6 steals) are too good to ignore.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Jimmy Butler and coach Tom Thibodeau have been reunited and all feels right in the world again. The Wolves are poised to finally break a playoff drought that has spanned 13 seasons, although they still face two big questions: 1) how much can they improve defensively? and 2) will they have enough floor spacing? Swapping Ricky Rubio for Jeff Teague will help the latter — Teague shot 37.6 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s compared to 32.5 percent for Rubio — but their starting wing duo of Butler and Andrew Wiggins consists of two of the six players to take 1,000 shots with less than 20 percent of them coming beyond the arc. Take away Zach LaVine, too, who averaged twice as many 3s per game than any other Wolves player; this could be a recurring issue.

There are a select few big men who can terrorize defenses from the post and perimeter alike (DeMarcus Cousins, Marc Gasol, and Embiid come to mind), but none do it with the fluidity or precision of Karl-Anthony Towns. He was one of just six players with a usage rate of at least 25 percent to also post a true shooting percentage north of 61 percent. The others? Harden, Thomas, LeBron, Curry, and Durant. There’s concern that Towns will see his numbers dip with the addition of Butler, but he’s such a versatile scorer that he’ll be able to thrive without the ball in his hands as the roll man in pick-and-rolls or on catch-and-shoot jumpers. His efficiency was absurd after the All-Star break (59.7% FG, 43.4% 3P%), and that was without Butler (or LaVine, for that matter) attracting attention from opposing defenses.

While Towns and Butler shouldn’t see their production impacted significantly, Wiggins figures to take a sizable hit as a usage-driven scorer who contributes little else by way of peripheral stats. He lacks the versatility Towns does, as 76 percent of his jump shots came off the dribble last season. It’s encouraging that he had an effective field goal percentage of 58.1 percent on catch-and-shoot attempts, but he’ll have to add a lot more to his game in order to develop into a consistent threat away from the ball.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans looked like two totally different teams coming out of the All-Star break after trading for DeMarcus Cousins, struggling mightily out of the gate before putting together a stellar seven-game stretch in which they outscored opponents by 12.8 points per 100 possessions with Cousins and Anthony Davis on the floor. They’ll likely land somewhere in the middle of those two extremes this year, but it’s encouraging that they were starting to put the pieces together late. Associate head coach Chris Finch was largely responsible for their revamped offense, which has some Moreyball influences (heavy on 3s and layups) while emphasizing ball movement and quick decisions.

Here’s how Cousins and Davis fared playing with and without each other last season, with their pre-trade averages included:

• Cousins with Davis on (per-36): 25.0 points, 13.7 rebounds, 3.4 turnovers, 1.2 steals, 58.0% true shooting, 29.8% usage rate
• Cousins with Davis off (per-36): 29.0 points, 11.2 rebounds, 4.0 turnovers, 1.5 steals, 55.9% true shooting, 37.7% usage rate
• Davis with Cousins on (per-36): 22.3 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 53.3% true shooting, 27.4% usage rate
• Davis with Cousins off (per-36): 28.7 points, 12.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 58.5% true shooting, 33.4% usage rate

While Cousins saw improvement in some areas playing alongside Davis, namely rebounding and efficiency, Davis’ numbers dropped across the board when playing with Cousins. Davis more than made up for it when Cousins was on the bench, but it’s something to at least monitor. Should they end up sharing the court more often this season, it’s worth noting that Davis has displayed the greater downside of the two. All in all, in the 17 games they played together, both averaged north of 50 DraftKings points per game (Cousins 51.6, Davis 51.2). Those would’ve been top-five marks behind Russell Westbrook‘s, James Harden‘s, and LeBron’s. What we learned last year was even though the Pelicans went through some ups-and-downs as a team following the trade, any concerns about Cousins and Davis seeing a significant drop-off in value were vastly overblown.

Jrue Holiday will slide back to his usual starting point guard spot with Rajon Rondo sidelined four to six weeks after undergoing sports hernia surgery. While the general consensus is that this will be good for Holiday’s numbers, he was far more effective and efficient as a shooting guard last year following the trade for Cousins:

Jrue stats, post Cousins:

12 PG starts: 13.7ppg, 41% FG, 24% 3pt, 6.5 ast, 3.4 TO

10 SG starts: 14.8ppg, 44% FG, 40% 3pt, 7.5 ast, 1.7 TO

— Scott Kushner (@ScottDKushner) July 18, 2017

Holiday was already the biggest wild card on this team heading into this season, and that was before they signed Rondo. The biggest factor in his collapse after the All-Star break: 3-point shooting. He shot 50.3 percent inside the arc pre-break compared to 49.3 percent post-break but saw a 9.2 percent drop-off from beyond it. That was the biggest second-half decline among all players who attempted at least 100 3s before and after the break. Holiday struggled from the corners especially, hitting three of 16 attempts (18.8%). That seems like small sample size theater and could offer a potential buy-low opportunity given how badly he struggled down the stretch last year.

New York Knicks

After finishing with the league’s sixth-worst record, things only got worse for the Knicks in the offseason. They passed on Dennis Smith Jr. in the draft for Frank Ntilikina because he was a better fit for a system they’re no longer going to run, dropped $80 million on Tim Hardaway Jr. and Ron Baker, and then traded Carmelo Anthony for overpaid defensive sieve Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott, and a second-round pick. In summary, the Knicks are still the Knicks, and they’ll likely find themselves outside of the playoff picture again largely because of a defense that projects to be below league-average for the 16th time in the last 17 seasons.

This is officially Kristaps Porzingis‘ team now, and though his talent is unquestioned it remains to be seen whether he’s ready to take the jump and have the offense run through him. He struggled last season when having to create his own offense, shooting just 31 percent on isolations and 37 percent on post-ups. A whopping 74.7 percent of his made shots were assisted, and his effective field goal percentage dropped off considerably when having to take at least one dribble:

• No dribbles: 65.1% frequency, 54.6% effective field goal
• One dribble: 15.8% frequency, 47.4% effective field goal
• Two dribbles: 12.2% frequency, 40.8% effective field goal
• Three or more dribbles: 6.9% frequency, 38.2% effective field goal

It’s unreasonable to expect Ntilikina to be ready to navigate NBA pick-and-rolls as a 19-year-old rookie point guard, so a lot will end up falling on Hardaway’s shoulders. All of this isn’t meant to distract from the fact that Porzingis is still 22 and showed significant improvement as a 3-point shooter and as a finisher around the basket, but it is worth considering how high of an immediate ceiling he has stuck in an offense deficient on playmakers.

New York ranked ninth in offensive efficiency at the center position featuring the trio of Joakim Noah, Willy Hernangomez, and Kyle O’Quinn, which is a testament to how productive they were on a per-minute basis. With Kanter now in the mix, they’ll have three of the top-46 leaders in DraftKings points per minute (min. 15 MPG) at center in Kanter, O’Quinn, and Hernangomez. The challenge will remain the same as we try to figure out which of them will get the majority of the minutes on a given night.

Oklahoma City Thunder

And thus concludes the summer of Sam Presti, where he managed to turn Oladipo, Kanter, Sabonis, and McDermott into Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. Both George and Anthony are ideal fits alongside Russell Westbrook, as they’ve proven to be excellent in catch-and-shoot situations over the past two seasons: George has hit 40.8 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts from the 3-point line; Anthony has hit 40.7 percent of them. While the presence of Brad Stevens quells many of the concerns about the roster turnover in Boston, the opposite can be said about Billy Donovan here. Given how concentrated the Thunder’s usage figures to be between Westbrook, George, and Anthony, and how thin their bench is, it’s even more imperative that the trio’s minutes are staggered. It’s concerning that Donovan was generally opposed to doing it two years ago with Westbrook and Durant and didn’t do it all last year with Westbrook and Steven Adams.

It’s an uneasy feeling knowing that the value of the Thunder’s “Big Three” somewhat hinges on Donovan and his rotations, and until we get a better idea of how much they’ll play together and whether George or Anthony will get the early hook to anchor the second unit (it’ll likely be George), it’s tough to break the situation down in much more than generalities. All three are obviously going to take a usage hit with Westbrook coming off the highest single-season mark (40.8%) since at least 1996, though George and Anthony will benefit from perhaps the best looks of their career, as they’ve never been surrounded by this type of offensive firepower. Westbrook’s 2014-16 per-game averages are a decent starting point of what to expect, with his scoring and assists on the higher end. The offense will continue to run through him with the Anthony pick-and-roll one of its staples given Anthony’s ability to create mismatches with his size.

George’s ability to adapt to a supporting role is nowhere near as big a concern as it is for Anthony. George is coming off the most efficient season of his career, a scary proposition given the quality of his looks will only improve in Oklahoma City. He’s become a problem for opposing defenses from all three levels and showed noticeable improvement as a post threat and from the mid-range (46.3% FG). George’s versatility will serve him well as an off-ball threat when he’s on the floor with Westbrook and Anthony and as the primary option with one or both on the bench. Anthony is the wild card here, and whether the Thunder will be able to reach their full potential has a lot to do with how willing he is to accept his role on both ends of the floor. If things go south, he’ll likely be the scapegoat for that very reason.

“Melo, bully! Russ, bully! Paul George, bully! Steven Adams, bully! Roberson, he’s f*cking taking your cookies! Patrick Patterson, he’s open for 3! Abrines, the X-factor! Singler, he’s f*cking shooting 3s all day!” – that one Knicks fan after jumping on the Thunder bandwagon, probably.

Orlando Magic

It’s still confusing why it took so long for the Magic and their coaches to come to the realization that Aaron Gordon is far more effective and better suited as a power forward. Things started to click when coach Frank Vogel finally made the switch after they dealt Serge Ibaka for Terrence Ross. Their new-look starting unit with Ross and Evan Fournier on the wing and Gordon at the four scored at a prolific rate — 112 points per 100 possessions, which would’ve ranked sixth among all lineups that played at least 400 minutes. It’ll be interesting to see how much of the second-half improvement they’re able to carry over, which included an uptick in pace — 98.42 (19th) pre-break, 100.77 (9th) post-break. That seemed to agree with Elfrid Payton in particular, as he posted top-30 value (38.2 DraftKings PPG) over the second half of the season and racked up five triple-doubles in 24 games.

Gordon’s continued evolution as a power forward remains the biggest thing to watch here, and he profiles as a prime breakout candidate given he’s finally been put in a position to reach his full potential:

• Pre All-Star break as a SF (per-36): 14.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 50.3% true shooting, 19.6% usage rate
• Post All-Star break as a PF (per-36): 18.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 58.1% true shooting, 20.8% usage rate

Philadelphia 76ers

It will be appointment viewing whenever Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are on the court together this year. Embiid averaged the fourth-most DraftKings points per minute last season as a rookie. Having Simmons there to initiate more of the offense will help with the turnovers, which were a rare blemish (5.4 per 36 minutes) in an otherwise dominant campaign. Embiid was one of two players to average 20-plus points and two-plus blocks last season — the other being Anthony Davis — despite averaging just 25.4 minutes per game. The usual disclaimers apply here with his injury risk and potential minute limitations, but there are few others that can match his ceiling on a given night.

Simmons has dazzled in the preseason, and his all-around game has been on full display. In five preseason games, he’s averaged 18.0 points, 9.8 rebounds, 8.5 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks per 36 minutes. Though he’s technically the Sixers’ starting power forward, he’s served as the de facto point guard with Markelle Fultz taking on ball-handling duties with the second unit. Simmons’ immense all-around upside and versatility is one of the reasons he’s moved ahead of Dennis Smith Jr. as the favorite to win Rookie of the Year: Simmons is currently +150 with Lonzo at +350 and Smith at +500. The usual disclaimers about his shooting apply here as well, though he’s shown that he can still fill it up even when his shot isn’t falling. Simmons is a legitimate triple-double threat every time he steps on the court.

Phoenix Suns

Beyond adding first-round pick Josh Jackson, the Suns were dormant this offseason and didn’t make any moves or additions of note. That doesn’t exactly bode well for their offense, which was dead last in effective field goal percentage outside of the paint (43.9% eFG) and 29th in assist percentage. They’ll look to Devin Booker to improve as a playmaker and have already said they believe he can up his assists per game from 3.4 to five or six this season. Coach Earl Watson said that while Eric Bledsoe is the point guard it doesn’t mean he’ll handle the ball when he’s on the floor. Watson played Booker at the point down the stretch last season when Bledsoe was benched for the final 15 games and reiterated that he likes the idea of having the ball in Booker’s hands.

There was definitely some give-and-take when the two shared the court last season:

• Booker with Bledsoe on: 44.5% field goal, 40.4% 3P%, 26.8% usage rate, 14.2% assist rate
• Booker with Bledsoe off: 38.3% field goal, 28.1% 3P%, 31.7% usage rate, 19.6% assist rate

Another player to keep a close eye on is Marquese Chriss. His minutes upside is a bit of a concern given his routine defensive lapses and foul rate (5.4 per 36 minutes), but the statistical versatility (1.4 blocks, 1.4 steals, 1.5 3s, 7.2 rebounds) is far too intriguing to ignore. Chriss is only 20, so we can continue to expect some ups-and-downs, but he’ll open as the starting power forward and offers further rebounding upside; he’ll see some minutes at center too with Alan Williams likely out for the season due to a torn meniscus.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers transformed into an unstoppable force after the All-Star break, going 14-5 and outscoring opponents by nine points per 100 possessions before Jusuf Nurkic went down with a fractured right fibula — the third straight year his season ended due to injury. During his 20-game stint with Portland, he averaged a +7.81 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating while garnering the third-highest GPP ownership. Nurkic’s presence opened up a whole new dimension to what was otherwise a fairly predictable two-pronged attack and presented a big challenge for opposing defenses looking to swarm Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. If he’s able to stay healthy — he claims to have shed 35 pounds this offseason — he’ll continue to be among the most sought-after centers in GPPs.

Portland’s roster is mostly unchanged save for the departure of Crabbe, who was second in the league in 3-point percentage last year. Transferring those attempts to Maurice Harkless (who stopped shooting 3s last season for fear of not receiving his contract bonus), Al-Farouq Aminu (who has made just 31.8 percent of 355 “wide open” 3-point attempts over the last two seasons), and Evan Turner (a career 29.8 percent 3-point shooter) will be detrimental to their floor-spacing. However, when Crabbe was on the court last season, the Blazers converted 36.3 percent of their 3-point attempts — the second-lowest mark on the team. Nurkic’s presence was much more instrumental for the team’s efficiency, resulting in 41.1 percent accuracy from downtown.

Lillard was nearly as valuable as Nurkic during the second half of the season, and Nurkic’s presence only amplified his productivity. He received more passes from Nurkic than any other Blazer after the All-Star break, shot 12 percent better inside the restricted area when sharing the court with him, and improved his field goal accuracy from 42.8 percent to 48.1 percent. Lillard took a slight usage hit, but both he and Nurkic improved their per-minute marks to 1.26 DraftKings points. Deploying both in a mini-stack is a viable GPP move based on their positive correlation.

Sacramento Kings

No team will return fewer minutes from last season’s roster than the Kings, and they were a nightmare to project after the All-Star break when veterans were rested regularly — news that wasn’t reported until well after lineup lock. Gone are Cousins, Rudy Gay, McLemore, Darren Collison, Tyreke Evans, and Arron Afflalo. They’ve been replaced by five rookies and veterans George Hill, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter, with the latter two having previously played for coach Dave Joerger.

Joerger is committed to running a 10-man rotation and pushing the pace; however, his unpredictable rotations and reliance on vets and former players (see: Barnes, Matt) could stagnate the growth of the rookies early in the season. With regard to minutes, Joerger doesn’t want an even split or a lopsided disparity between starters and bench players. He said, “I think as guys earn their minutes that somebody is going to be at 26-30 and somebody could be (around) 18.” In terms of how he’ll mix the rookies and veterans, Joerger appears to be leaning older in the short-term: “You want your older guys — if they’re going to lose minutes — they should be beaten out. The sophomore on a varsity team should have to beat the senior out, or work harder or just be better. So you want to give those older guys their due, their respect, and their credibility.”

Joerger has already confirmed vets will occasionally rest, just as they did last season. It will be difficult to rely on any Kings rotation players until injuries occur or players are ruled out for rest early enough to react. Hill appears to have the highest floor as the starting point guard and best player on the roster, and Willie Cauley-Stein led all returning Kings players with 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in 30.9 minutes per game following the Cousins trade. He had some explosive performances toward the end of the year, exceeding 30 DraftKings points in 12 of the final 26 games, and should garner serious consideration when Kosta Koufos is rested.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have finished with a top-five defense in 18 of the past 23 seasons, but it’ll be interesting to see how much their top-ranked unit from last year will slip (if at all). Gone are stalwarts Dewayne Dedmon and Jonathon Simmons: When both were on the court, San Antonio posted a Defensive Rating of 98.1. With both off the court, that number slid to 108.3. Even more concerning is the health of Kawhi Leonard, who will miss the season-opener and remains without a timetable for a return as he recovers from a right quad injury. Leonard is the linchpin of this team on both ends of the floor and was a large part of why they limited opposing small forwards to a -1.93 FanDuel Plus/Minus.

Coach Gregg Popovich caps his players’ minutes regularly, and Spurs starters averaged the third-fewest minutes per game last year (28.0). Only Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge averaged more than 30 minutes per game in each of the last two seasons, while Tony Parker and Pau Gasol both set career-lows last year. Spurs players can be removed from the game at a moment’s notice or not play at all without prior warning from Popovich. Outside of Leonard, they offer minimal assurance from night-to-night, and as a team they provided the ninth-lowest DraftKings Consistency Rating in 2016-17.

Parker’s absence early in the season due to a ruptured quad may create short-term value for potential interim starting point guards Dejounte Murray and Patty Mills, who both received starts when Parker sat last year. Mills led all Spurs players with a +6.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a 25.5 percent assist rate in eight starts and 11 reserve appearances, while Murray was more erratic and fell victim to Popovich’s unpredictable rotations when he entered the starting lineup.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors lost three of their most reliable reserves this summer in Patrick Patterson, Cory Joseph, and P.J. Tucker, which will force their youngsters into more meaningful minutes this season. If C.J. Miles wins the starting small forward gig over Norman Powell, they won’t have any bench players with more than three years of experience. Their starters could be in line for exorbitant minutes if the neophytes sputter, a long-term concern for the oft-injured Kyle Lowry, who has finished top-two in minutes per game in each of the last two seasons.

After seeing their 3-point attempt rate fall for three straight seasons, Toronto has averaged the second-most 3s per game (41.3) during the preseason. That’s almost twice as many as they averaged last regular season; the problem is they’ve converted just 29.8 percent of them. They’ve also focused on passing the ball more, which has led to a 63.6 percent assist rate — up from 47.2 percent last season. A revamped offense could potentially hurt the value of DeMar DeRozan, but if the Raptors continue to struggle from deep they may ultimately return to their isolation-heavy sets centered around DeRozan’s mid-range prowess.

Powell has proven more effective in the starting unit, shooting 49.8 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from deep, than coming off the bench, where his efficiency dropped to 41.2 percent overall and 27 percent on 3s last season. In the 23 games in which he was projected for at least 22 minutes last season, he averaged a team-high +5.72 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 60.9 percent Consistency Rating. However, with both Lowry and DeRozan off the court, Powell averaged 0.2 more DraftKings points per minute than when playing alongside them and led the team with a +8.1 percent usage rate differential. His cheap salary had a large hand in his value; if he ends up coming off the bench, fewer minutes alongside the Raptors’ All-Star duo should elevate his ceiling.

Utah Jazz

In the wake of Hayward’s departure, Utah’s offense will undergo quite the transformation, as many of their sets were run through him as the primary option. Swapping Hill for Ricky Rubio at the point could prove to be a shot in the arm for a Jazz squad that has ranked dead last in pace in each of the past three seasons. Rookie Donovan Mitchell confirmed that coach Quin Snyder is looking to play faster this season, and we’ve seen some progress toward that goal during the preseason where they’ve ranked 23rd in pace. Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here, however, as they’ll struggle to find consistent looks at times without Hayward and Hill, and they’ll continue to rely on their defense to pay the bills.

Health has been a perpetual concern, and Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors have been particularly snakebitten. A knee injury midway through last year hampered Hood’s productivity, and he seemed to be on a minutes restriction the rest of the way. Back and knee issues plagued Favors from start to finish and sapped his athleticism in the process. He managed to play at least 30 minutes just four times. Favors admitted to feeling healthier now than he has at any point over the last 18 months, and in the games that Hayward didn’t play last season he was a large beneficiary with a +4.3 usage rate differential.

Illuminating remarks this summer from general manager Dennis Lindsey painted Hood’s role this upcoming season in a positive light: “We think Rodney has the potential to be in that 18 points-per-game range . . . We didn’t want to bring in anyone who could get in the way of Donovan [Mitchell], Dante [Exum] and Rodney. We want them to develop.” Snyder added that he expects to run the offense through Hood and Joe Johnson late in games. For Hood’s part, he was far more effective (and efficient) as a scorer when Hayward was off the court last season:

• With Hayward on (per-36): 13.7 points, 1.4 free throws made, 48.1% true shooting, 20.1% usage rate
• With Hayward off (per-36): 22.2 points, 3.0 free throws made, 57.1% true shooting, 28.2% usage rate

When Hayward has been off the court over the past two seasons, Hood has led the Jazz with a +4.8 percent usage rate differential. Barring injury, which has already been an issue for him this preseason, he’ll likely emerge as Utah’s go-to scorer following Hayward’s decision. The burning question is whether Hood can do it consistently and when defenses are focused on stopping him. He’ll have every opportunity to prove so.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards will return a league-leading 87 percent of their regular season minutes from last year and added a capable backup point guard in Tim Frazier, whose style of play is the antithesis of CBA-bound Brandon Jennings. Questions linger about the health of their two other additions, however, as neither Jodie Meeks nor Mike Scott played more than 36 games last season; Meeks was limited to 39 over the past two seasons. The Wizards will likely continue to lean heavily on their starting unit, which averaged the second-most minutes per game (33.4). Their starters, with the lone exception of Marcin Gortat when Ian Mahinmi is healthy, offer a consistent floor well suited for cash games given their significant workloads.

Markieff Morris will miss the beginning of the season after undergoing sports hernia surgery in September, creating a void at power forward that Jason Smith or Scott will attempt to occupy. In the six games Morris missed last season, Kelly Oubre averaged 27.2 minutes per game in an increased role, but it was Smith who led the team with a +9.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus in just 22.6 minutes per game. The Wizards have an absurdly easy schedule to start the year, playing just four of their first 14 games against teams who made the 2017 playoffs — including a game against the lottery-bound Hawks. Whoever wins the starting power forward job will likely deserve immediate recognition as a value play until their price normalizes or Morris returns.

When Morris was off the court last season, John Wall led all Wizards players with a +4.8 percent usage rate differential while averaging 1.33 DraftKings points per minute. In 59 games against opponents with a winning percentage of .450 or less over the last two seasons, Wall has exceeded his salary-based expectations 64 percent of the time with a +5.18 DraftKings Plus/Minus — the sixth-highest mark over that span. Look for him to feast during the Wizards’ early stretch of games while Morris is sidelined.

This could very well be the year Bradley Beal finally joins the 50-40-90 club.

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In researching for this piece I consulted John Schuhmann’s One Team, One Stat series at NBA.com, used analysis from Zach Lowe and Kevin Pelton at ESPN, and relied on data from NBA.com and the FantasyLabs Tools.

JJ Calle contributed research to this article and did the heavy lifting on the final six previews.