The 2016 Wyndham Championship
With Olympic golf in the rear-view mirror, the PGA Tour heads to Greensboro, NC, for the Wyndham Championship. The event is held at Sedgefield CC, a 7,127-yard Par-70 course that has seen a winning score of at least 17 under in four of the last five years. Sedgefield CC is the every-year host of this event, so we do have some course history. Per usual, we will take a look at the prior five years, but it is worth noting that the course made a minor change in 2012, when the greens changed from Bentgrass to Bermuda grass.
We have four players in the current field who have finished among the top 25 in at least three of the past five years.
This is a short course, so players should be able to make up for what they lack in distance with an ability to find fairways and Greens in Regulation (GIR). I wouldn’t punish someone for either recent or Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD), but there should be an emphasis on birdie-makers regardless if they score through accuracy, putting, or driving. Let’s dive into the field.
Player Breakdown
$9,000 – $12,200
Jon Rahm ($10,400) is coming into this event on a streak of three-consecutive top-25 finishes. There are definitely some reasons to fade Rahm in tournaments — he is a rookie and becoming super popular/highly owned — but it is difficult to ignore his recent results. Through his last four events (all of which have been on the PGA Tour), he has averaged 17 Adjusted Birdies (Adj Birdies) per tournament and has a Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) of 68.5. Although length shouldn’t be necessary this week, his 310-yard average DD and 62.5 percent Recent Driving Accuracy (DA) should help him find plenty of birdie opportunities. If he can continue to hit his GIR at a rate of 67.7 percent, he should be able to benefit from his LT Putts per Round (PPR) average of 28.5.
Webb Simpson ($10,200) gets the title of ‘Mr. Course History’ this week. His 68.7 Course Adj Rd Score is the highest of any player’s in the field with at least two starts at this event. His LT PPR average of 29.3 is middle of the pack, but he has struggled on the greens recently. Although he has averaged 30.1 PPR through his last three events, he still managed to finish among the top 40 in each tournament, including two major championships. A poor performance on the greens hasn’t hurt him much at this event in the past, as he has averaged over 30 PPR in two of his last five appearances here, but he has still managed to finish inside of the top 25. His 80 percent Consistency Rating on the year speaks to his cash-game viability, but keep in mind that his course history will likely lead to high ownership in large-field tournaments.
Kevin Na ($9,100) is currently tied for ninth on Tour with 34 rounds in the 60s this year, despite his LT DD average of only 278.8 yards. His lack of distance is yet to be a deterrent, and it shouldn’t hurt him at Sedgefield CC, where the average length of Par-4 holes is only 437 yards. Through his last 24 events, he has trailed only Jon Rahm (count of seven) with an average of 70 DraftKings points. He has two top-10 and four top-25 finishes in his last five events and an Upside Rating of 50 percent on the year. Dating back to January 2014, he has averaged 8.93 points above his salary-based expectations and has at least met those expectations in 42 of 63 tournaments.
$7,000 – $8,900
Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($8,900) leads all players in this pricing tier with an average of 74.3 percent Long-Term GIR. He finds greens at an elite rate, but his LT PPR of 30.9 is not helping him capitalize on his unbelievable amount of birdie opportunities. He played well at the Olympics last week, but there is no way of knowing how the travel will affect him and the other players making the trip from Rio to Greensboro. His putting and travel are understandable reasons to look elsewhere in cash games, but his 13.3 LT Adj Birdies per tournament is astounding considering his struggles on the green. He makes sense in tournament formats, as his 288.3-yard LT DD won’t put him at a disadvantage this week, and he should score very well if he can get on the right side of the flat iron.
Jason Dufner ($7,900) is similar to Cabrera-Bello in the sense that he hits a ton of greens, is not very long off of the tee, and averages only 0.7 more Adj Birdies per tournament. The biggest difference (aside from the $1,000 discount) is that Dufner is a slightly better putter. He has averaged an embarrassing 30.4 PPR through his last two events, but it is worth noting that both of those events were major championships. Though still not good, his 29.5 average LT PPR is 0.9 strokes better than that of his recent average. He has made nine straight cuts, and he should benefit from playing in a tournament with a weaker field than the fields that he has played in recently.
Jason Kokrak ($7,100) has made four consecutive cuts, including the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. His 306.6-yard LT DD is a top-10 mark in the field, and his recent GIR of 72.9 percent ranks second among golfers in this range of salaries. He is a bomber, and that is not what this course calls for, but that is exactly the reason he could go overlooked in tournaments. Through his last two events, he has managed (without sacrificing any distance) to find the fairway with 63.4 percent of his drives. His 29.7 LT PPR and lack of course fit is enough to eliminate him from cash-game eligibility, but his recent accuracy from the tee and solid ball striking make him worth a flyer in tournaments.
$5,000 – $6,900
Henrik Norlander ($6,600) has made each of his last nine cuts on and off of the PGA Tour. His last two events were last week’s John Deere Classic and the prior week’s Travelers Championship, where he finished T25 and T27. Norlander’s recent GIR (73.6 percent) and DA (73.2 percent) are both well above his long-term averages, and he hit an astounding 53 of 56 fairways (94.6 percent) at the John Deere Classic. His only appearance at this event was in 2013, when he finished 16th despite averaging 29.5 PPR. His 16.5 Adj Birdies per tournament is the highest of any player priced below $7,000, and he boasts a 76 percent Consistency Rating on the year, which is among the top 15 in the field.
Chez Reavie ($6,300) has missed the cut at two of his last four appearances at this event but is coming into this year’s tournament in solid form. His Recent GIR of 72.2 percent is 3.5 percentage points better than his solid LT average. Additionally, his Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.8 is tied for the best among players in this range of salaries and is 1.3 strokes better than his LT average. Currently carrying five Pro Trends, Reavie has an +8.5 Plus/Minus on the year that is ranked 10th in the field. Chez is sometimes a popular pick among the lower-priced players, but he could serve to differentiate a lineup that is heavy on course history due to his poor performances here in the past.
Flop Shots
I am leaving you with a video highlighting the top-10 golf shots from last year’s Wyndham Championship, which features a few Tiger Woods highlights from his brief time on Tour last season, including a pretty sick flop shot near the end. Enjoy.
Best of luck this weekend!
