The 2016 Quicken Loans National
The U.S. Open was fun, but now we get the good stuff: The Quicken Loans National. [Editor’s Note: I also can’t tell if he’s being ironic.] This field is much weaker than the one we had to work with last week, but that shouldn’t shake up anyone who was playing any of the weeks leading up to last week’s major. The event returns to Congressional Country Club after a one-year hiatus in 2015. Although this course isn’t as difficult as Oakmont was last week, it has hosted three U.S. Opens in the past and is one of the tougher tracks on tour.
Tournament settings make Congressional a Par-71 that can stretch over 7,500 yards. The course features dogleg holes in both directions and tree-lined fairways, which will make accuracy important for some holes. Distance will also play a factor, but ball-striking statistics will probably be the most valuable DFS statistics this week. As always, making course-related adjustments to your Player Models is recommended.
Course History
This event was not played at Congressional Country Club last year, so our five-year course history will feature only 2011-2014:
And here are players who have had at least three top-25 finishes dating back to 2011:
Only three players in this field qualify for the list above. That number is lower than normal, but we are also dealing with only four years of data, so I wouldn’t take it as a knock against the validity of course history at this event: I would weigh it the same as you would any week.
Let’s take a closer look at the field this week.
$9,000 – $12,000
Rickie Fowler ($12,000) currently has the highest implied Vegas odds to win (6.7 percent), but his recent form has been horrendous, as shown by his missing the cut in his last three events. An argument for him could be that those three events — the Players, the Memorial, and the U.S. Open — are in much stiffer fields and under more challenging conditions. However, his Recent Adjusted Round Score (which adjusts for those things) is 1.5 strokes worse than his Long-Term Adj Rd Score. Although he has the talent to take down a tournament any week, his name alone should be enough for him to carry a high ownership in lower-stakes tournaments this week, so a closer look at a full Ricky fade could be warranted.
Jim Furyk ($11,300) is tied for the second-highest implied Vegas odds to win, which speaks more to the lack of field strength than to Jimmy’s game. I am a big-time Jim supporter — #TeamUglySwingForLife — but he will likely be too popular in guaranteed prize pools after his second-place finish at the U.S. Open last week.
Prior to his wrist injury, Furyk was the lesser Matt Kuchar — consistent, not very long, accurate, and . . . boring. He struggled a bit after returning from injury but seems to have found his swing. Through his last four events, he has hit 72.3 percent of his fairways and 70.8 percent of his Greens in Regulation, both of which are higher than his long-term averages.
Charley Hoffman ($10,500) is showing a solid form, having made three consecutive cuts, including a T37 at last week’s U.S. Open. He has excellent course history and has made the cut in each of his last five appearances at this event. He has hit only 50.9 percent of his fairways through his last four events, but he has managed to make up for his inaccuracy off of the tee by hitting 70.7 percent GIR through his last four appearances at Congressional CC. He is coming into this week not far from that mark, as he has hit 66.6 percent of his greens through his last three events.
Brendan Steele ($9,900) pulled together a top-20 finish at the difficult U.S. Open, where he hit 66.6 percent GIR — tied for 14th in the field. Steele’s 302.1-yard average Long-Term Driving Distance is the third-highest in this range of salaries, and he makes up for a modest 61 percent Driving Accuracy by hitting 69.2 percent GIR. He has played this event only three times but has made the cut in each appearance and finished T5 in 2014, the last time this event was held at Congressional.
$7,000 – $8,900
Charles Howell lll ($8,200) has turned it around through his last three events after missing his prior two cuts at The Players and Wells Fargo. His 85 percent Consistency on the year is the highest of any player in this range of salaries with at least four events on the year. His long-term and recent statistics don’t have many differences, but his Rec Adj Round Score is 0.4 strokes better than his long-term average. His history at this course is spotty, as he has missed the cut in two of his five appearances in this event. In his favor are seven Pro Trends, which is good for the most among players in this pricing tier.
Consistency, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Robert Garrigus‘ ($8,000) Course Adj Rd Score of 68.7 is the best of any player in the field with more than two appearances at this course. His average DD of 307.8 yards is the second-highest among golfers in this price range, trailing on Tony Finau’s average (309.2). Dating back to 2008, Garrigus has played at this course six times, with an average DD of 314.8 yards and 68.1 percent GIR. He made the cut in each of those six appearances and finished outside of the top 25 on only two occasions. He will approach this event on a streak of four-straight made cuts, and his Recent Putts Per Round of 28.4 is 1.2 strokes better than his long-term average. Chasing the hot putter is dangerous, but Garrigus did manage to make the cut here in 2013 even when he was averaging 32.3 putts per round.
Jason Kokrak ($8,300) finished T37 at the U.S. Open, shaking off some poor form that included three missed cuts and a withdrawal in his five prior events. He is long off of the tee, ranking forth in DD (306.3 yards) among players in this salary range. Of course, his 56.3 percent Long-Term DA off of the tee is concerning at a track where you run the risk of playing from the trees if you really spray the ball off of the tee. His inaccuracy could spell trouble this week, but he did manage to hit 38 of 56 fairways at Oakmont last week, which tied for sixth in the field.
$5,100 – $6,900
Chez Reavie ($6,700) has hit 71.4 percent of his fairways and 73.3 percent GIR through his last four events. You would think that striking the ball that well would result in some solid finishes, but Reavie’s game log tells a different story. He has missed three of four cuts during that time, due mostly to his poor scrambling (52.3 percent) and atrocious 30.4 PPR. His problems with the flat iron suggest that you should look away from Reavie, but his ball-striking alone is enough to make him worthy of some tournament consideration. His Long-Term PPR is 1.1 stokes better than it has been through his last four events, and he just needs to come back to his long-term form on the greens to really capitalize on his stellar accuracy of late. He is also only one of two players priced below $7,000 with five Pro Trends.
Patton Kizzire ($6,700) has met or exceeded his salary-based expectations in 13 of his 18 events over the past year (72 percent). He did miss the cut last week, but there weren’t many birdies to be had at Oakmont, and making birdies is a big part of why Kizzire has been able to score so well relative to his salary on DraftKings. His 14.9 birdies per tournament is the highest among players priced below $7,000 with at least two events played in the last 75 weeks. Despite a Long-Term DA of 57.4 percent, he has been able to hit 68 percent GIR, and his average DD of 296.1 yards should give him some birdie opportunities if his recent accuracy of 61.6 percent can hold.
A Major Victory
I am assuming that most of you watched the U.S. Open last week and saw the shot I am going to leave you with, but I am going to leave you with it nonetheless. Dustin Johnson’s approach shot on the 18th hole was spectacular. I couldn’t find a video of only that shot, but fortunately this video shows it within the first minute. It was an awesome showing by DJ last week, but I have the give him an F on the winning fist pump. For a second I thought it looked like he was going to roll the dice, but I was wrong. It was just a strange little shake of the fist for Dustin as he celebrated his first major victory. Hey, whatever floats your boat, DJ, but a roll of the dice would have been epic.
