The 2016 PGA Championship
Only two weeks removed from the Open Championship, we are back with the fourth and final major of the year — the PGA Championship. This event rotates from course to course, so we won’t be able to work with any course history this week. Unlike the Open, the PGA Championship doesn’t necessarily utilize the same “type” of course. Two weeks ago, looking at event history made sense because the Open Championship tends to feature courses with certain similarities. This week, not so much.
So What Now?
If you are someone who relies heavily on course history, then you are probably wondering what to do. I think that the natural place to fall back on is course fit.
This year’s host, Baltusrol GC, typically plays as a Par-72, but two of the Par-5 holes have been changed to Par-4s for this event, leaving the course with 478-yard and 501-yard Par-4s on the front nine. The 10 original Par-4s play at an average distance of 439 yards. The back nine will now feature the only two Par-5s, which come in at a whopping 649 yards and a more-normal 554 yards. The course also features four Par-3s, with all but one — the 196-yard fourth hole — being over 200 yards.
Bombers who can keep the ball in play and golfers with solid ball striking, specifically from around 200 yards, should be able to navigate the course well. With that being said, in major championships we should be targeting primarily one specific type of golfer — the good one. Since 2011, only two golfers ranked outside of the top 100 in the Official World Golf Rankings have won a major championship. In Fact, 18 of the past 25 golfers to win a major ranked among the top 25 in OWGR when entering the tournaments.
At FantasyLabs, the overall quality of a golfer is measured by Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score), which is average strokes per round after being adjusted for the difficulty of the course and strength of the field. This metric is a focal point in most Player Models but is especially worthy of your attention this week, along with the distance and ball striking statistics.
Also, keep in mind that some golfers’ recent form statistics will include the difficult U.S. Open and Open Championships, which were both heavily affected by weather.
Player Breakdown
$9,000 – $11,700
Dustin Johnson ($11,600) currently has the highest Vegas-implied odds to win (11.1 percent), and for good reason. His second-place finish at last week’s Canadian Open is his sixth consecutive top-10 finish. Through his last four tournaments, Dustin has driven the ball an average of 325.7 yards and hit 68.8 percent of his Greens in Regulation (GIR) and 59.8 percent of his fairways. His Recent Adjusted Round Score (Recent Adj Rd Score) of 66.4 would be the best in the field if it weren’t for Henrik Stenson‘s ($10,500) complete domination at the Open. Impressively, Dustin’s recent play has been strong despite the fact that he has recently fallen slightly short of his stellar Long-Term Putts Per Round (LT PPR) average of 28.2. Rostering DJ will leave you with an average of only $7,680 to fill out the remaining five slots in your lineup, but he still warrants serious consideration in cash games, as his 55 percent Upside comes along with a 95 percent Consistency. Same story, different week.
Rory McIlroy ($11,400) is one of four players in the field who has a LT GIR over 70 percent and an average Driving Distance (DD) over 300 yards. He is currently tied with Dustin Johnson for the most Pro Trends (13) in the field and Jason Day for the second-highest Vegas-implied odds to win (10.0 percent). Through his last three events, he has averaged 29.9 PPR, which is a solid reason to lean toward Dustin Johnson at only $200 more in cash games. However, Rory’s elite ability to hit GIR and his distance off the tee combine to make him an excellent tournament option. If deciding between the two, I’m taking the good putter in cash games and the bad putter in tournaments.
Sergio Garcia ($9,400) is in excellent form, and his Recent Adj Rd Score of 66.9 is the third-best in the field. His four consecutive top-five finishes include a fifth-place finish at both the U.S. Open and Open Championships. His 70.6 percent LT GIR and 300.9-yard DD are both among the best in the field, and although his 29.7 LT PPR is poor he has still managed 15.7 adjusted birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
Bubba Watson ($9,000) is another intriguing option at the bottom of this range of salaries. His LT numbers in both DD (312 yards) and GIR (69.2 percent) are impressive. Although his recent GIR has dropped to 61.6 percent through his last three events, two of those events were the U.S. Open and Open Championships. Sergio’s superior recent form might sway you toward him in cash games, but it is worth noting Bubba’s 82 percent Consistency on the year before you write him off as tournament-only play this week.
$7,000 – $8,900
Dating back to the Masters, Lee Westwood ($7,900) has made seven consecutive cuts and finished outside of the top 15 on only a single occasion. His Recent Adj Rd Score of 68 ranks among the top 20 in the field, and with his 90 percent Consistency he trails only Matt Kuchar ($8,600), Martin Kaymer ($7,900), and Dustin Johnson among players with at least 10 events played this year.
J.B. Holmes‘ ($7,700) LT DD of 310.7 yards is the third-best in the field, and his 28.7 LT PPR is tied for third among golfers in this range of salaries. The problem with J.B. is that he tends to spray his driver, as shown in his LT Driving Accuracy (LT DA) of 53.6 percent. Additionally, he reaches GIR only 63 percent of the time. Due to his inaccuracy, he doesn’t make it into cash-game consideration, but he makes for a solid tournament option if you are taking the bomber angle this week.
Russell Knox ($7,500) missed the cut at the Masters earlier this season but has since made the cut in the Players, U.S. Open, and Open Championships. All three of those events offered difficult and somewhat unusual conditions as well as super-talented fields. During those tournaments, he averaged 65.5 DraftKings points and was priced at $7,600 in all three events. He is a supreme ball striker, as shown in his LT GIR and LT DA of 69.5 percent and 67.4 percent, but his 282.5-yard DD could hold him back on some of the longer holes. Note that he is ranked first on Tour this season in GIR from 200-plus yards (60 percent). With a focus on DD this week, Knox could come in at reduced ownership in tournaments.
Despite finishing 18th at the Open Championship, Charl Schwartzel ($7,300) is $500 lower than he was at that event. He has finished in the top 25 in each of his last six events, and his eight Pro Trends are the second-most of any player priced below $8,000. His LT DD of 298.4 yards is solid, but he hits the fairway only 58.1 percent of the time. However, his 68 percent LT GIR shows that he does have an ability to overcome some missed fairways.
I could go on forever in this range of salaries . . .
$5,500 – $6,900
Emiliano Grillo ($6,900) has made the cut in each of the three majors this year, including a 12th place finish at the Open championship two weeks ago. His 292.1-yard LT DD is far from the longest in the field, but he has let it loose to the tune of a 302.3-yard average through his last five events. As his distance has recently improved, his DA has dropped 6.5 percentage points, but he is still managing to hit 65.8 percent GIR. Additionally, he has been able to shave 0.5 PPR from his LT average.
Gary Woodland ($6,700) has averaged 15 adjusted birdies per tournament through his last three events, which is 2.6 birdies more than his LT average and has brought his Recent Adj Rd Score down to 67.8 during that time. His 305.8-yard LT DD is among the best in the field, but his LT PPR (29.4) and DA (57.2 percent) could cause some big numbers and should limit him to tournament exposure.
If I am going to take my chance on a golfer with distance and a bad putter in this pricing tier, it is going to be Brendan Steele ($6,000). Although he’s slightly shorter off of the tee (301.6-yard LT DD) than Woodland, he keeps his ball on the fairway more often (61.6 percent LT DA). His 29.7 LT PPR isn’t what I like to see when rostering a player, but at $6,000 he offers significant salary relief and could post a great number if he can get the flat stick working. He managed to finish 20th when he averaged 28 PPR at the Memorial Tournament.
Have A Day, Jason
Last year’s PGA Championship saw Jason Day win his first major, and I still remember how cool it was to watch him celebrate the win. I was going to leave you with a video that featured only four seconds of actual golfing and 47 seconds of Jason Day crying. I ended up settling on this video of final round highlights. It shows much more golf than tears.
Good luck this weekend and enjoy. It will be a long time until we have another major.
