It’s Week 17
This article looks at the fantasy implications for all playoff-relevant Week 17 matchups.
It examines the implications for all non-relevant matchups, too, so it’s your lucky day.
For some teams, this week is the most important of the season. For other teams, it means (almost) (literally) (less than) nothing.
In the NFL preseason, daily fantasy success hinges primarily on predicting how teams will distribute snaps. Given that Week 17 of the regular season is sort of the distant cousin to Week 4 of the preseason, we once again should focus on how snaps will be apportioned — and it’s likely that some teams will dispense playing time based on the relative importance of the week.
In this piece, I’m not presenting comprehensive predictions as to the allotment of playing time. Instead I’m running through the 32 teams and separating them based on where they are in the standings and whether they have anything at stake this week. And in some instances I’ll editorialize because I can’t f*cking help myself.
The Non-Playoff Losers
It might be weird to start this piece with the losers, but I figured that you’d read about them only if I put them at the top. Also, it’s still the holiday season, and some Hebrew born around this time a couple of thousand years ago once said something about the last being first. As it is in heaven, so let it be here in this fantasy football article.
Here are the teams who have no chance of making the playoffs. In some instances, individual players may be motivated to reach personal benchmarks or vulnerable coaches may be competing for their jobs — but in general these teams lack strong motivation to win or to use their best players. They might even have incentive to lose or to give live non-scrimmage pseudo-practice reps to developing players.
Not all players on the franchises in this section need to be avoided — but these teams constitute a large segment of the minefield that’s Week 17. Tread carefully.
Cleveland Browns (1-14)
In Week 16, first-year head coach Hue Jackson coaxed a win out of an 0-14 franchise. Now it’s time for them to ‘win’ again by losing on the road to the Steelers. A loss guarantees the Browns the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
San Francisco 49ers (2-13)
First-year head coach Chip Kelly is ostensibly coaching for his job — but 1) he has been all season, 2) it’s hard to call what he’s doing “coaching,” and 3) the 49ers are 2-0 against the Rams this season and 0-13 against everyone else. They haven’t had a reason to take a game seriously for a while.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
Last week, the coach-less Jaguars broke a nine-game losing streak by beating a Titans team competing for a playoff spot 38-17. That is so #JAX. The Jags are road underdogs, and quarterback Blake Bortles has never not been a dog as a visitor. Metaphorically, they’re right at home. This team’s been playing for nothing for almost a decade. What’s one more week?
Chicago Bears (3-12)
The heir apparent to Jeff Fisher’s throne of mediocrity, head coach John Fox is 9-22 in his two years in Chicago. He’s coaching for his job, QB Matt Barkley is auditioning for the 2017 role of starting interception tosser, wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is playing for a contract (with another team), and Cam Meredith is competing with the ghost of Kevin White to be the team’s No. 1 WR next year.
New York Jets (4-11)
Second-year head coach Todd Bowles’ job is seemingly safe, but he’s dealing with kidney and gallbladder issues, the WR group is all kinds of deceased, and the starting QB for this week will reportedly be backup-turned-starter-turned-backup-turned starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Apparently, rookie second-round death sentence Christian Hackenberg was under consideration. If Iron Lung had been named the Week 17 starter, a lot of people would’ve lost a lot of Coors Lite.
Los Angeles Rams (4-11)
It could be worse: The team could be in St. Louis, coached by Fisher, and quarterbacked by Case Keenum. Instead, the team’s in a new city and has no long-term fans, coach, QB of the future, and 2017 first- and third-round picks. It really could be worse. I mean, at least they’re the only team in Los Angeles.
San Diego Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)
In Week 17, the Chargers will likely play their last home game in San Diego ever. I expect them to handle themselves with the same professionalism they’ve displayed throughout the last few years as this relocation process has unfolded:
Yep.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-9-1)
This team’s been pretending for the last six years. What’s one more week? [Have I used that line already?]
Philadelphia Eagles (6-9)
First-year head coach Doug Pederson served as the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs for three seasons (2013-15). In those years, QB Alex Smith averaged 3,354.6 yards and 20.3 touchdowns per season. That might mean that Pederson sucks. It also might mean that he’s a miracle worker.
Carolina Panthers (6-9)
The Panthers went 1-5 before a bye in Week 7 thankfully afforded their season a chance to die in peace. They’ve been playing meaningless games since the last week of October. They’re 5-4 in that time.
Arizona Cardinals (6-8-1)
Last week on the road, the eliminated 5-8-1 Cardinals ran their franchise workhorse RB 28 times into the run-stopping teeth of the Seahawks defense. Head coach and wide receiver whisperer Bruce Arians might coach this game as if it were his last. He’s been hospitalized twice this year, most recently for chest pains.
Buffalo Bills (7-8)
Head coach Rex Ryan has reportedly just been fired. Sure, he’s only 15-16 in his two years in Buffalo after the team went 63-97 the decade before he arrived — but anytime you can rid yourself of a near-.500 coach who is popular with his players and has three years left on his contract, you probably should.
The team has reportedly benched Tyrod Taylor and plans to start ‘veteran’ QB E.J. Manuel — not because the Bills are interested in Manuel but because they don’t want Taylor to get injured . . . not because they care about him but because they want to have the option of cutting him during the offseason and don’t want to owe him money if he suffers an injury.
#Chaos
Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
The Vikings are 2-8 since entering their bye week 5-0. Last week, players outright refused to follow the instructions of head coach Mike Zimmer. This team’s arguably been ready for the offseason for the last two-and-a-half months.
Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
The Colts have been no better than a .500 team ever since in the aftermath of a 45-7 defeat at the hands of the Patriots they started talking about QB Tom Brady‘s balls. But, hey, ‘The Deflategate Curse’ probably isn’t a real thing. Head coach Chuck Pagano and General Manager Ryan Grigson could very well be dead men walking — but hasn’t that always been the case?
New Orleans Saints (7-8)
For the third straight year, the Saints will miss the playoffs. At best, they’ll finish the season as a .500 team. Sean Payton is one of the longest-tenured head coaches in the league. He has won 100 games with the Saints, including a Super Bowl, and seems to be liked within the organization. Arriving in New Orleans in 2006, Payton not only revitalized QB Drew Brees‘ career. He helped the city find hope in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
He’s probably not coaching for his job, but if he senses that this week’s game might be his last for the Saints, he’s unlikely to go gentle into that good night — especially against the divisional rival Falcons who can clinch a first-round bye with a victory.
Denver Broncos (8-7)
[Insert here snide ‘heart of a champion’ dig.]Who could’ve foreseen the utter failure of a second-year, seventh-round selection who threw seven touchdowns to 11 interceptions as a college senior and had never attempted an NFL pass?
This week, the Broncos have the opportunity to show the Matt McGloin-led Raiders that victories don’t come easily without an actual starting QB. If the Raiders win, they will be the AFC West champions — maybe even the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Last year, the Broncos were AFC West champs and the No. 1 seed. They’re playing for pride.
Tennessee Titans (8-7)
One week ago, the Titans were a surging 8-6 team competing for the AFC South title. This week, the Titans are a non-playoff team with an old declining RB, a broken-ankled QB, and a massive ‘what happens in Jacksonville stays in Jacksonville’ hangover.
F*cking Matt Cassel is the team’s Week 17 starting QB. Other than a winning record at 9-7, the Titans have nothing to play for in a divisional game that means nothing.
Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
We’re nine years into the John Harbaugh-Joe Flacco experiment. Over the last five years, Harbaugh is an uninspiring 41-38. Of course, he also won the Super Bowl in 2012. Harbaugh’s job is seemingly safe. The Ravens always play tough, and they’re not likely to be lifeless in what could be WR Steve Smith Sr.‘s last NFL game — but they’re on the road playing against the division rival Bengals, who also have no real incentive to play hard.
The Ravens-Bengals game could underwhelm. It currently has a low Vegas total of 41 points.
On the Outside Looking In
While the six AFC playoff teams are set, the NFC bracket still has some open spots. Here are the two teams currently slated to miss the playoffs who nonetheless still have a chance to sneak in as a wild card.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
Playing at home at 1:00 PM ET against a division rival Panthers team that’s one year removed from a 15-1 record and Super Bowl appearance, the Bucs must win to keep their playoff dreams alive.
Of course, they have almost no chance of making the playoffs, as that would additionally require the following (per ESPN):
- Victories by the 49ers, Titans, Colts, and Cowboys — none of whom need to win
- A loss by the Packers, who are incentivized to win
- A tie by the Redskins, who are incentivized to win
But at least we can expect the Bucs to try to win, especially since they play early in the day, before some of the other requisite playoff dominoes have fallen.
Washington Redskins (8-6-1)
The Redskins are playing at home at 4:25 PM ET against a division rival Giants team that is locked into the No. 5 seed and has no real incentive (other than spite) to play hard. Technically on the outside looking in, the Redskins amazingly (almost) control their destiny. If they beat the Giants, they will be the No. 6 seed — as long as the Packers-Lions game at 8:30 PM ET doesn’t end in a tie.
In Week 17, the Redskins are a team looking to win facing a team looking not to lose any players to injury.
On the Inside Looking Out
Right now two NFC teams are currently slated for the playoffs but at risk of losing their spots with a loss. As fate (or the NFL schedule) would have it, they’re playing each other this week.
Detroit Lions (9-6)
Currently the No. 6 seed, the Lions host the Packers, who hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Lions win, they will be the NFC North champions and maybe even the No. 2 seed (depending on what happens in the Seahawks-49ers and Saints-Falcons games). If they tie with the Packers, they will remain the No. 6 seed. If the Lions lose, they will need a Redskins loss to maintain a spot in the playoffs.
This is probably a non-story, but the possibility exists that third-year head coach Jim Caldwell might even be coaching for his job. If the Lions miss the playoffs, they would’ve gone .500 over the last two years and missed the playoffs each year — after Caldwell raised expectations in his first season by going 11-5 and taking the team to the playoffs.
For a multitude of reasons, the Lions are motivated.
Green Bay Packers (9-6)
After starting the season 4-6, the Packers have ripped off five straight wins as QB Aaron Rodgers has established himself as an MVP candidate and played like a top-two fantasy QB during that time. Per our Trends tool:
If the Packers beat or tie with the Lions, they’ll be the NFC North champions and perhaps the No. 3 seed. If they lose, they can still make the playoffs under two different scenarios:
- The Redskins lose, and the Bucs lose.
- The Redskins lose, and the Bucs win but fail to have the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over the Packers because one of the Seahawks, Texans, Jaguars, and Eagles win in Week 17.
If the Packers lose and the Redskins win, the Pack will miss the playoffs.
Like the other head coach in this game, Mike McCarthy may be sitting on a silently hot seat. He’s had perhaps the greatest QB of his generation for 11 years. He has one Super Bowl win, an 8-7 playoff record, and a habit of sabotaging his team with conservative play calling.
Week 17 counts for the Packers.
Playoff Teams With Something To Win
Across the AFC and NFC are six playoff-bound teams with a reason to play in Week 17.
Seattle Seahawks (9-5-1)
The NFC West champ and current No. 3 seed, the Seahawks play on the road against the 49ers at 4:25 PM ET. If they win, they will be the No. 2 seed with a Falcons loss. If they lose, they will drop to the No. 4 seed if/when either the Packers or Lions win.
They’re playing for a first-round bye and the hope of home-field advantage in the conference championship game if someone can beat the Cowboys in Dallas during the divisional round.
Atlanta Falcons (10-5)
The Falcons are like the Seahawks, except that they currently have what the Seahawks want: The No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. The NFC South champs are hosting the Saints at 4:25 PM ET. If they win, they lock up the No. 2 seed. If they lose (or tie), they could still be the No. 2 seed (depending on what the Seahawks and Lions do) — but they could also drop down to the No. 4 seed. They control their own destiny.
Miami Dolphins (10-5)
The Dolphins sort of have something to play for — but not really. The current No. 6 seed, the Dolphins (hosting the Patriots at 1:00 PM ET) will earn the No. 5 seed if they manage to beat the AFC East champs and then later in the day the Chiefs lose.
The Dolphins have contingent incentive to play hard and certain incentive not to do so: As bizarre as this sentence sounds . . . the team can’t risk an injury to Matt Moore.
Kansas City Chiefs (11-4)
At 4:25 PM ET, the Chiefs on the road will have the opportunity to send the Chargers packing on behalf of San Diego. Currently the No. 5 seed, the Chiefs can claim the AFC West and jump all the way up to the No. 2 seed with a victory and a loss by the Raiders, over whom they hold the tiebreaker by virtue of their two head-to-head wins. The Chiefs and the Raiders play at the same time, so the Chiefs will certainly be playing to win — especially since there’s a decent chance that the Raiders could lose.
If the Chiefs lose and the Dolphins win, the Chiefs would be the No. 6 seed.
Oakland Raiders (12-3)
At 4:25 PM ET, the Derek Carr-less Raiders will be playing on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions. If the Raiders win, they as the AFC West champs will have a first-round bye and even the No. 1 seed with a loss by the Patriots, who play earlier in the day. If the Raiders lose, they could drop all the way to the No. 5 seed with a Chiefs win.
The Raiders need this win. If they are to have a chance of reaching the Super Bowl, they must win to guarantee themselves fewer necessary playoff victories and maybe even home-field advantage if they know that the Pats lost in the early slate of games. This is the Raiders’ most important game of the year.
For what it’s worth, they’ve experienced some early heavy reverse line movement. The Broncos opened as 3.5-point favorites. As I write this on Tuesday afternoon, the game is now a pick’em even with just 42 percent of the betting public on the Raiders.
New England Patriots (13-2)
The AFC East champs play on the road at 1:00 PM ET against the division rival and playoff-bound Dolphins, who have little incentive to try. The Pats already have a first-round bye. They want more. If they win, they clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If they lose, they’ll drop to the No. 2 seed with a Raiders win. The Pats control their destiny.
Playoff Teams With Something To Lose
And at last we reach the other part of the Week 17 minefield.
Across the AFC and NFC are four playoff-bound teams with no real reason to compete in Week 17. Maybe they’ll want to give their starters playing time so that they can “stay sharp” or whatever bullsh*t line they’ll use to justify exposing million-dollar assets to the possibility of injury in what essentially are glorified exhibition games. Anyway . . .
Houston Texans (9-6)
Even though the Texans are locked into the No. 4 seed as the AFC South champs, head coach Bill O’Brien says that the team will “play to win” against the Titans — as if there’s any other way to play against the Titans after their exquisite choke job last week against the Jaguars. Anyway . . . new starting QB Tom Savage apparently will see some more ‘live practice’ in this mockery of an NFL contest.
RB Lamar Miller (ankle) missed last week’s game. The rational move would be to rest him one more week. I’m not sure how much rationality factors into this organization’s decision-making process.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
Listen, Terry. Not all of us can have a career 212:210 TD/INT ratio and make the Hall of Fame just because one of the greatest coaches in NFL history as well as two HOF WRs and a HOF RB bothered to drag us to four Super Bowl victories in six years. And by “us,” I mean “you.”
Anyway, Super Bowl-winning head coach-impersonating professional cheerleader Mike Tomlin has said (per our NFL News feed) that a number of core Steelers may rest in Week 17, as the team is locked into the No. 3 seed. Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Maurkice Pouncey, and maybe even Ladarius Green (concussion) seem unlikely to play significant (if any) snaps.
DeAngelo Williams (knee) is returning from knee injury: Even he might not play many snaps. If that’s the case then third-string RB Fitzgerald Toussaint could be a Week 17 volume-fueled home favorite superstar against the hapless Browns.
New York Giants (10-5)
The Giants are locked into the No. 5 seed as a wild card and have nothing to play for — except the privilege of beating the divisional rival Redskins and thereby keeping them out of the playoffs. That might not be tempting enough for first-year head coach Ben McAdoo to risk injury to key players. QB Eli Manning and WR Odell Beckham Jr. are likely to play reduced snaps.
Dallas Cowboys (13-2)
A f*cking decade ago, with a different head coach and an almost entirely different team, the Cowboys entered Week 17 as a locked-in 13-2 No. 1 seed — just as they are now. They didn’t compete to win the game (which they lost). They merely endeavored not to suffer any serious injuries. Many starters rested in the second half of the game.
The next week, QB Tony Romo went to Cabo with then-girlfriend Jessica Simpson, the internet exploded, and the week after that the Cowboys lost in the divisional round of the playoffs to the Giants, who went on to beat the undefeated Pats in the Super Bowl.
[Editor’s Note: That, by the way, is when the Romosexual movement died. Mama Lynn still blames Tony for how the 2007 season ended.]
The lesson that devil owner Jerry Jones learned from all of this is not that he hired the wrong head coach 10 years ago or that Romo was just an immature guy or that the Giants were simply better than the Cowboys when they played each other for the third time that season.
Instead, the lesson learned is that the Cowboys shouldn’t have rested their players in Week 17. Expect Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Dez Bryant, and even Jason Witten to see more playing time than they should unless a reliable beat reporter clearly says otherwise — and even then . . . who knows.
Also, expect Romo not to play one snap.
———
Do you know what happens when people try to fix the past by undoing their previous mistakes? They make new and different mistakes that f*ck up the future.
Do you know what happens to people who f*ck up the future? Eventually, one way or another, they die.
#CauseEffectBoom
Good luck this week.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players on teams herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
