From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs will be releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Tennessee Titans Team Preview
It took only seven games before the Titans organization had seen enough. Following a season in which their head coach at the time, Ken Whisenhunt, had ‘led’ the team to a 2-14 record and been allowed to keep his job, the Titans promptly lost six of their first seven contests in 2015. It was the 16th loss in 17 games for Tennessee, including 12 straight against AFC opponents. Whisenhunt’s .130 winning percentage to that point was the third-worst NFL coaching record since 1970, per STATS LLC. Change was long overdue. In Week 9, Mike Mularkey replaced Whisenhunt on an interim basis.
Of course, the Titans seemed to forget that Mularkey was supposed to be only a fill-in. In January, they officially made him head coach.
Familiar faces — vets and rookies alike — join the Titans this season, but their offense is still the third-youngest unit in the league. Winning only three games in 2015, the Titans should probably be satisfied if this season they are merely able to develop their young players while also staying competitive.
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota
An MCL sprain kept Mariota from playing in Whisenhunt’s final two games as head coach, but his first three performances of the season showed why Tennessee drafted him:
More importantly, it brought attention to the start of a noticeable trend. In the five games in which Tennessee ran at least 70 offensive plays (including Weeks 2 and 3), Mariota averaged a +12.09 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. If we factor out Week 15, when he played only 19 snaps before leaving with another MCL sprain, Mariota averaged a +0.87 Plus/Minus in all other contests. That’s why the Titans are intriguing in Weeks 3-8: Four of their six opponents in that stretch finished 25th or worse in opponent plays per game last year.
Mularkey has also shown no hesitation in saying that the Titans will employ a smash-mouth, run-first offense, which most think will damage Tennessee’s game script (and rightfully so). Fortunately, last year Mariota averaged four rushing attempts per game under Mularkey’s tutelage. In his first five games with Whisenhunt, he carried the ball 10 times total. With his capability as a runner, Mariota could do very well in those weeks when game flow goes his way.
Matt Cassel
Let’s not sugarcoat this: 2010 was a long time ago. For Cassel, it might as well be a career ago. For five seasons, Cassel hasn’t resembled even a replacement-level quarterback. If he’s needed, the Titans would be forced to abandon all ‘exotic’ personnel packages. Last season, he showed un-Cassel-like competency in throwing for 299 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles — but they were pretty bad against everybody, finishing 27th in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks. In his seven other 2015 appearances, he averaged only 5.85 yards per pass attempt.
Given how DraftKings has once again depressed quarterback salaries this year, even a terrific matchup for Cassel probably wouldn’t be enough to make him preferable to other low-priced quarterbacks who, you know, actually got playing time in college.
Running Backs
DeMarco Murray
How running backs have performed following a year in which they received 370-plus carries was something first studied by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders in 2004. Back then, only 24 runners had qualified, and summarizing the effects was simple: “A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson.” The study was revisited in 2007 — then with three more relevant case-samples — and the results were the same. In other words, how Murray fared in Philadelphia last season (read: poorly) isn’t shocking, as he was only one year removed from recording 392 rushing attempts with Dallas.
Some say Philadelphia’s offensive scheme is to blame for Murray’s performance. In his last three seasons with the Cowboys, Murray rushed for 480 yards on 100 carries in shotgun formation. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry in that situation, which is good, but he was running behind a superior offensive line in a system that didn’t use shotgun all the time. His 100 shotgun carries account for only 13 percent of his total attempts in that span.
In Philly, behind on offensive line that wasn’t great, Murray ran the ball 156 times from shotgun formation, which accounted for 46.7 percent of his carries. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Offensive lines and offensive systems matter.
His best years are behind him, but there’s hope for Murray if the Eagles’ scheme in fact was a source of his struggles: 46 percent of Philadelphia’s rushing attempts came in shotgun formation, whereas last year Tennessee ran the ball from shotgun on ‘only’ 24 percent of their carries.
Of course, all of this analysis could be relatively moot by Week 6: There are other runners on this team very desirous to give Murray the Ryan Mathews treatment.
Derrick Henry
En route to winning the Heisman Trophy last season, the second-round rookie Henry led the nation in attempts (395), rushing yards (2,219), and touchdowns (28). Murray will initially be the Titans’ workhorse, but one can only imagine how long that will last. If Murray proves to be ineffective, Henry — who ran a 4.57-second 40-yard dash despite his 6’3” and 247 lb. size — would be the first back called on to replace him.
No matter: Henry will still receive his fair share of touches in the event that Murray has a bounceback year. The Titans are reportedly set on a hot-hand approach at running back — that, on top of what’s sure to be a system in which they use three different backs situationally anyway. Even if Henry never becomes the hot-hand back, he could still be the goal-line back. And if that’s all he is, that might be enough. Ironically, a Murray bounceback could actually benefit Henry if he’s getting the regular opportunity to do his 2008 LenDale White impersonation. One way or another, a season of double-digit touchdowns for Henry is possible.
Dexter McCluster
McCluster clearly has a role as the change-of-pace back in the Titans offense. For Murray’s sake, it also helps that 20 of Tennessee’s 87 carries from shotgun (22.9 percent) were given to McCluster last year. He never received more than 10 carries in any game last year — he averaged five attempts before a broken wrist cut his season short — yet there was still value to be had when he led the Titans’ backfield in snaps.
Between Week 2-7, McCluster averaged 44.3 percent of Tennessee’s backfield snaps and a +5.28 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. In all other contests, he averaged 7.21 DraftKings points and ‘only’ a +1.71 Plus/Minus. If there’s ever a matchup in which he’s likely to see a lot of snaps, he could be an undervalued and contrarian double-dip marvel, as he additionally returns punts.
Antonio Andrews
Bishop Sankey had toiled away as Tennessee’s starting back for the first five games of the season before his inefficiencies finally got him benched. The Titans had no choice but to replace him with Andrews, who averaged 13.5 carries per game for the next seven weeks. He admittedly didn’t do any better, exceeding salary-based expectations in that span just because his salary was so low. Still, Andrews has a chance to stick with Tennessee since, unlike Sankey or David Cobb, he contributes on special teams.
In a ‘there’s no way this actually happens’ best-case scenario for him, Andrews serves as a goal-line and third-down back. He’s a big guy who’s actually pretty good at catching the ball. That would be good for him, and bad for almost everyone else.
David Cobb
The second-year back spent the first half of 2015 on Injured Reserve with a calf injury. Over the second half of the season, Cobb averaged 2.8 yards per carry on 52 attempts. One year after selecting Cobb with the 138th pick, the Titans saw fit to draft a better version of him in Henry with the 45th selection. He’ll be lucky if he makes the roster.
I don’t know why I’m even still talking about him.
Bishop Sankey
Like Andrews and Cobb, Sankey will spend the entire preseason trying to convince the Titans to keep him as one of four backs — and that’s if they keep even four. In all likelihood, he’ll be showcasing his skills on another NFL team in September. Fortunately for him, it only takes one suitor to look past his subpar blocking and roll the dice on an athletic specimen who just two years ago was the first running back selected in the draft as an early entrant with a 2,000-yard, 20-touchdown campaign on his college resume.
Wide Receivers
Dorial Green-Beckham
You’re 5,000 candles in the wind.
Rishard Matthews
Matthews left Miami in order to sign a three-year, $15-million dollar deal with Tennessee. Little did he realize that DGB would be traded, inevitably cementing his role as Tennessee’s likely No. 1 wideout. He lacks the raw athleticism of most top wideouts, but he was still athletic enough to stud it up (relatively) for the first 10 games of 2015. With a salary that always seemed too low, he was one of the league’s most consistent receivers last year:
Had broken ribs not ended his season in Week 11, it’s reasonable to think that Matthews’ Plus/Minus would’ve remained strong throughout the season. For now, he brings consistency to a receiving corps that has lacked it the last two years.
Tajae Sharpe
A fifth-round rookie from Massachusetts, Sharpe ran with the first team throughout organized team activities because he was reportedly the “most consistent receiver on the team” — which might be true but is incredibly sad. He was still a starter when training camp opened, so the whole ‘Sharpe is a starter’ thing seems to have been sincere, especially now with DGB exiled. There’s no denying that he was a good college player — as a senior he led the nation with 9.3 receptions per game and in his final two seasons he averaged over 100 yards per game — but he wasn’t much of a touchdown scorer, which is what you tend to get with a guy who is under 200 lbs. and runs a 4.55-second 40-yard dash.
Apparently he has a very high football IQ and is a smooth route runner, but we’re talking about a fifth-round rookie from a non-major conference who caught only 0.5 touchdowns per game in his final two seasons. That we’re even talking about him shows the extent to which this receiving unit has turned over and potentially has problems.
With a path to playing time, Sharpe may be a tournament option early in the year, but unless he actually becomes the team’s No. 1 receiver he’s not at all an option in cash games, given the Titans’ expected run-pass ratio: They just traded their 2015 second-round receiver for a backup offensive lineman, for crying out loud.
Kendall Wright
Although it seems like a mirage, Wright is only two seasons removed from hauling in 94 catches for 1,079 yards. With eight missed games in the last two seasons, Wright hasn’t proven that he can stay healthy, and he’s also not a consistent player. He enters 2016 as Tennessee’s primary slot receiver, but that still might not result in a wealth of action for Wright, as the Titans look to become more of a power-running team that employs dual tight-end sets. It doesn’t help that last year he was targeted only 42 times from Mariota, who relied on three other receivers more. And his hamstring injury isn’t helping him either.
For him to reach 1,000 yards again, it would take a lot of targets, which he is extremely unlikely to see even if other receivers ahead of him on the depth chart don’t play well.
Justin Hunter
Hunter burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2013 with four touchdowns on 18 receptions. He has since added only four touchdowns to that total over the past two seasons. Now approaching the final year of his rookie deal, Hunter is really just hoping to remain healthy for an entire 16-game schedule — a feat he’s yet to accomplish. He’s tall, fast, and a great leaper, and he averaged 19.67 yards per catch as a rookie, but last year he averaged only 12.0 and his touchdown total has declined each year of his career.
In order to have any value this season he’ll need to stay healthy and be crowned Tennessee’s No. 4 receiver. By no means is that guaranteed.
Harry Douglas
We already mentioned Wright, so let’s talk about another random 1,000-yard receiver who doesn’t score touchdowns: Douglas is amazingly still on this team, which makes some sense because he previously played under Mularkey and offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie in Atlanta, so he’s at least familiar with the offense. Unfortunately, Douglas will play in 2016 as a 32-year-old 170 lb. receiver with declining speed and no real role in an offense that doesn’t intend to throw the ball a lot. That last year he received four targets inside the 10-yard line is both unbelievable and catastrophic. Insofar as he serves only to keep other receivers from achieving fantasy value by stealing their targets, he has negative DFS value.
Andre Johnson
Last year, Johnson played 16 games for the Colts and opened the season as the No. 2 receiver. Eventually, he was taken of the field in favor of undrafted unathletic slot man Griff Whalen, whom Rotoworld once referred to (in 2013) as ‘a catch-and-fall specialist.’ Naturally, he outplayed Johnson. Unfortunately, Johnson has just enough left in the tank to steal targets from other receivers without actually being useful himself.
In any other 2016 scenario, Johnson doesn’t make the team out of training camp and retires. But we’re talking about the Titans, who kept more tight ends than wide receivers on their 53-man roster last year. He’ll probably start for them till he’s 42.
Tight Ends
Delanie Walker
Last season truly was a historic one for Walker. Not only did he lead his position with 94 catches, but he also became only the ninth tight end in NFL history to record 90 receptions in a season. He even meshed with Mariota, accounting for 26 percent of the rookie’s completions (60:230), 26.5 percent of his yards (747:2,818), and 21 percent of his passing touchdowns (4:19). No tight end proved to be as valuable: He reached his salary-based expectations in 93.3 percent of his 2016 contests.
Unfortunately, all fairy tales must end. He could certainly be Mariota’s favorite target once again in 2016, but he’s highly unlikely to piece together back-to-back career years.
Walker, who turns 32 before the season starts, was only the second tight end in NFL history to have 1,000 yards receiving at the age of 31, the other being Tony Gonzalez. When Gonzo did it, he was a reliable pass catcher on his way to the Hall of Fame. When Walker did it, he accumulated 27.1 percent of his career receiving yardage — which is absurd considering that he has a 10-year career.
Additionally, Walker has a highly unsustainable red-zone catch rate. Over the last two seasons, 55 players have received at least 17 red-zone targets, but only Walker (14-of-17, 82.3 percent) averaged a catch rate greater than 71 percent. Prior to last season, he had caught merely 14 of his 31 red-zone targets (45.1 percent) since joining Tennessee. Finally, if the team runs as much as it wants to run, Walker might end up being used more as a blocker than an actual receiver.
For 2016, it’s much likelier that he looks like the guy who had the 63-890-4 stat line in 2014 than the 94-1,088-6 line last year.
Craig Stevens
Stevens is a run-blocking specialist who saw only 16 targets last season. He should start alongside Walker this year in two tight-end sets, and he finished 2015 tied with Rob Gronkowski as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 tight end in run blocking. He was re-signed this offseason and called a “cornerstone player” by general manager Jon Robinson, so Stevens is actually important to the Titans, but he has no DFS value whatsoever.
Two-Minute Warning
If the Titans do intend on using an outdated ground-and-pound approach, they’re set up nicely to do so (beyond the fact that they shouldn’t). They begin the year against the Vikings, who ranked sixth in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to running backs last season, but then their schedule eases up, as they don’t face another top-10 foe in Opponent Plus/Minus until they host the Packers in Week 10. All signs point to Tennessee establishing themselves as a running offense.
Of course, their defense, which finished 30th overall in Weighted Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average, will need to improve across the board if they’re hoping to compete, no matter what their offensive scheme is. Then there are the issues that Pro Football Focus addressed when they ranked the Titans’ offensive line 25th. Mariota isn’t going to get a lot of help. Even so, if he can play a full season, the Titans are likely to surpass last year’s win total of three games. That’s still a long way away from having a wealth of players who are actually useful in fantasy.
