From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs is releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Preview
In 2014, the lowly Buccaneers finished with the worst record in the league, guaranteeing themselves the first overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. The following season, their No. 1 quarterback (Jameis Winston), wide receiver (Mike Evans), and running back (Doug Martin) were an average 24 years old and by Week 8 had helped the team surpass the dreaded two-win mark from the prior year.
Tampa Bay lost its last four games (and its slim playoff hopes in the process), but strides had clearly been made. Finishing with a franchise-first top-five ranking in total offense, the Buccaneers will look to build on their 2015 campaign with a 2016 season that results in something other than a top-12 draft pick.
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston
Offensive coordinator-turned-head coach Dirk Koetter didn’t ask too much of Winston in his first year, as the stud rookie finished middle of the pack in pass attempts (14th with 535) and commanded an offense that ranked 21st in pace. Winston finished 22nd among quarterbacks in average DraftKings points per game (18.63), but there are signs that point to an inevitable uptick in production.
Tampa Bay averaged the seventh-most plays per drive and finished No. 9 in red-zone passing attempts, but somehow finished only 22nd in red-zone touchdown percentage. If they continue to pass that often in the red zone, even a few more receptions would help Winston immensely. He was additionally much more valuable over the second half of the season, averaging a +5.17 Plus/Minus at DraftKings.
In his first eight games, Winston averaged a respectable (albeit worse) +2.73 Plus/Minus.
While the Buccaneers will look to build on his second half efforts, note their schedule before the Week 6 bye. Tampa Bay opens the season on the road against Atlanta but is then forced to play four opponents (Arizona, Los Angeles, Denver, and Carolina) that finished with top-10 passing defenses in 2015, according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Even if the Bucs’ young stars are able to exceed their salary-based expectations in Week 1, they will likely be relatively safe fades till after the bye.
Mike Glennon
In 2013-2014, the Bucs hoped that Glennon (a third-round pick in 2013) would be the team’s quarterback of the future. In those two years, he even started 18 games, throwing 28 touchdowns to 15 interceptions in his starts. That’s not bad.
Of course, his 5-13 record as a starter was bad enough for the team to draft Winston. Glennon didn’t see one snap last year. If Winston were to miss time, the offense would likely suffer but Glennon could probably be good enough not to destroy the fantasy value of all the players on his team. Just most of them.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans
Evans experienced no learning curve in his rookie campaign two seasons ago, finishing with 1,051 yards and 12 touchdowns. Expected to build on both totals in 2015, Evans was a let down by many standards. Despite ending the year No. 10 in targets (148), he finished 30th in receptions (74) and 85th in touchdowns (three). He also led the league in dropped passes (11). Even though Evans should receive similar volume and experience positive mean reversion in 2016, last season did show that he is not yet elite.
In six games without teammate Vincent Jackson, Evans averaged 12.5 targets, six receptions, and 19.43 DraftKings points, pacing for 1,723 yards on the year. Over the last two seasons, Evans has averaged only 8.1 targets, 4.4 receptions, and 12.1 DraftKings points with Jackson, pacing for 1,077 yards on the season.
Based on these numbers, he’s only worth paying for at DraftKings ($7,400) and FanDuel ($7,900) in Week 1 if Jackson is suddenly expected to sit. As it stands, both will be on the field. Evans’ salary is entirely too high if he’s the player in 2016 that he has been the previous two years.
Vincent Jackson
As much as Evans has flourished without Jackson, Jackson has flourished without Evans. Over the last two seasons, V-Jax has averaged 11.5 targets, six receptions, and 97.5 yards in the two games that Evans has missed. Of course, Jackson has been an afterthought when both receivers have started, averaging 7.5 targets, 3.7 receptions, and 56.2 yards. The Buccaneers only have so many dependable options in their passing game, but it’s clear that Jackson plays second fiddle whenever Evans is available.
Fortunately, Jackson’s salary at DraftKings ($4,400) and FanDuel ($5,900) in Week 1 is more than reasonable. Opportunity trumps negative splits at that price. Per our Trends tool, Jackson consistently provided value last season when he was comparably priced on both sites. Even if he’s not the receiver he once was, he can still be a useful DFS asset if he’s cheap enough.
Adam Humphries
An undrafted rookie in 2015, Humphries was declared the Bucs’ starting slot receiver early in training camp this year. After Louis Murphy sustained an ACL tear in Week 7 last season, Humphries hauled in 25 catches for 246 yards and one score the rest of the way — about as much as anyone could ask from a 5’11” and 195 lb. rookie receiver whose best season in college was a 41-483-2 12-game campaign.
Ultimately, Humphries (the team’s primary punt returner) will have to produce in other ways in order to return value. There are only so many targets to go around in Tampa Bay, and Murphy and Humphries combined last year to receive only the fourth-most targets from Winston, only one of which was a touchdown. We’re already scraping the bottom of the barrel here.
Kenny Bell
Tampa Bay’s fifth-round pick in the 2015 NFL draft, Bell missed all of last season with an injury. He’s athletic for his size (6’1″ and 197 lbs.) but he did relatively little in college at Nebraska. Fifth-round players who didn’t produce in college or play as rookies tend not to do much, and Bell has had a bad trainign camp. Right now, he’s reportedly behind some other receivers who somehow might matter more to the team than he matters.
Running Backs
Doug Martin
Martin’s true identity as an NFL player lies somewhere between his 558-yard campaign in 2014 and his 1,673-yard 2015. Finishing second last year in carries (288) and yards rushing (1,402), Martin averaged almost 5.0 yards per carry (4.9). Even with Charles Sims stealing targets for 16 games, Martin was still one of the few true No. 1 backs in the league. Tampa Bay signed him to a five-year, $35.7 million dollar contract in the offseason. He’s likely to be featured again.
Martin’s weekly attempts (20.75) made his floor as safe as any running back’s last year, but his salary eventually reached a point where he was clawing for upside each and every week. At FanDuel, for instance, Martin spent seven games priced under $7,000. He averaged a +7.18 Plus/Minus in those games. In the nine games in which his salary exceeded $7,000, he was barely able to meet expectations.
Martin costs $7,200 at FanDuel in Week 1. His inevitable workload makes him a relatively safe cash option, but his ceiling at that price makes him a strong candidate to fade in GPPs.
Charles Sims
Sims threatened Martin’s role as Tampa Bay’s workhorse when the latter was sidelined with a sprained ankle and knee in 2014, but it turns out that the two runners can coexist as standalone DFS options. Martin out-snapped Sims 624-427 in 2015, but Sims still managed to score double-digit DraftKings points in eight of 16 games, finishing second on the team in targets (70). Sims averaged a +5.09 Plus/Minus at DraftKings last season, but his salary never exceeded $4,000 in that time. This season, he costs $4,400 in Week 1.
Four of the first five defenses the Bucs face this year finished last season with top-10 DVOAs in both pass and rush defense. Sims is unlikely to take Martin’s job, but in the games in which Tampa Bay struggles, falls behind, and opts to pass the ball more, Sims will likely be the more valuable player of the two.
Mike James
James was waived by Tampa Bay in Week 4 last season since he was fourth on their depth chart behind Bobby Rainey. Now back with the team, James is in the lead for the No. 3 job, but that’s not worth much. Although the No. 3 backs in many systems are niche players who see regular (even if few) snaps, the Bucs tend to rely almost exclusively on the their two best runners. James is long removed from that prominent four-game stretch in 2013 when he rushed for 283 yards on 57 carries and hauled in nine catches for 41 yards.
If Martin and Sims are injured, then James probably has the ability to be a capable injury fill-in, but otherwise he’s unlikely to do much except cheer from the sidelines.
Tight Ends
Cameron Brate
Brate signed as an undrafted free agent in 2014. He doesn’t have the ceiling of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but Bucs beat reporters swear that Brate has slowly become one of Winston’s favorite targets in training camp. He has reportedly shown “great chemistry with Winston and been one of the most consistent pass-catchers in training camp.” He’ll start the year as Tampa Bay’s No. 1 tight end.
On the one hand, being the top tight end might mean that he’s discounted. On the other hand, he and ASJ simply might cannibalize each other. It’s not an ideal situation.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
The longer Brate holds off ASJ, the likelier it is that ASJ will never overtake him. Having missed 16 games in his first two seasons, SJ is running out of time. Two years ago he was a coveted prospect with great athleticism. Now, he’s dangerously close to becoming the bust on whom the Bucs wasted a high second-round pick.
It’s promising that ASJ has turned his nine targets within the opponent’s 10-yard line into five receptions and four touchdowns, but ultimately he’s a guy who has averaged 2.6 receptions and 34.9 receiving yards per game over his first two seasons. That’s actually not horrible, but it’s not what the Bucs were hoping to get out of the pick they invested in him.
Two-Minute Warning
The Buccaneers’ 7.5 win total is hopeful for a young and upcoming team with promising pieces on both sides of the ball, but they drew the short end of the stick in terms of scheduling. Beyond the aforementioned murderer’s row they face in their first five weeks, Tampa Bay then has to travel to Kansas City in Week 11, host Seattle in Week 12, and make its way to Dallas in Week 15 — not the ideal start or finish for an offense led by a second-year quarterback.
Still, the team’s primary offensive weapons all have the ability to return value on a regular basis if they aren’t priced too high. If their salaries have dropped after their tough opening stretch, the skill position players for the Bucs could be ideal GPP targets throughout the middle of the season.
