From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs is releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
San Francisco 49ers Team Preview
It has now been roughly three-and-a-half years since the San Francisco 49ers lost to the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII. Since this narrow defeat the 49ers have gone through quite a bit of change. A new stadium, two new head coaches, and numerous early retirements are obviously all big deals in their own right, but perhaps the single biggest change in San Francisco has been the deterioration of Colin Kaepernick as a quarterback. Kaepernick’s stock couldn’t have been higher, as at least one writer speculated that Kaepernick could finish his career as “one of the greatest quarterbacks ever.” How the mighty have fallen: It appears that Blaine Gabbert will take over Kaepernick’s role as the 49ers’ starting quarterback in 2016.
Chip Kelly is the new coach in town after Jim Tomsula‘s lone season ended in a disappointing 5-11 record. Kelly inherits one of the league’s worst rosters, a sad reality that is evidenced by the 49ers’ 5.5 Vegas win total, tied for the lowest mark in the league. With such a grim outlook for their 2016 season, the 49ers will need some Kelly-induced magic to produce some points, as the talent pool is pretty shallow.
Quarterback
Blaine Gabbert
At some point in the offseason, people started to believe that Gabbert performed well during his eight-game stint as a starter in 2015. In reality, Gabbert was the No. 24 DraftKings quarterback in points per game and the 49ers had a rough time on offense with Gabbert behind center. The team surpassed 20 points in just one of Gabbert’s eight starts (albeit against the Monsters of the Midway), solidifying the 49ers’ status as the worst scoring team in football at just 14.9 points per game.
Gabbert’s mediocre level of play in 2015 was in fact better than what we had come to expect from the former top-10 pick, so he at least was ‘good’ in that sense. Even though Gabbert posted five of his seven career-best single-game passing yardage totals in 2015, the problem is that Gabbert continued his career trend of not being able to put points on the board. Gabbert has never thrown more than two touchdown passes in 35 career starts. He has thrown fewer than two touchdowns in 29 of these starts.
Gabbert posted a nice Plus/Minus of +4.00 on DraftKings in his 2015 starts, but this is more a result of his brutal average expected points total of just 13.97. Kelly did turn Nick Foles into a great quarterback once upon a time, but Sam Bradford‘s 30th-ranked finish in DraftKings scoring demonstrates that Kelly’s quarterback whispering methods may not work on all passers. Gabbert should be a fantasy option in Week 9 against the Saints’ historically bad pass defense. Otherwise, don’t expect him to be anything more than an inconsistent play in guaranteed prize pools.
Colin Kaepernick
Barring a major change, Kaepernick will be the 49ers’ backup quarterback to start 2016, as he would be costly to release for the team. Once a single pass away from winning a Super Bowl, Kaepernick now looks like a guy who barely belongs in the league. In his audition for the 2016 starting job in Week 3 of the preseason, Kaepernick accumulated 14 yards passing on six attempts. Despite having all the talent in the world, Kaepernick has seemingly lost the ability to play the quarterback position. He has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 10 of his last 15 starts.
Kaepernick’s running ability would have made him a dream match in Kelly’s offense as recently as two years ago, but Kaepernick seems unlikely at this point to regain his status as one of the league’s most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks. Kaepernick combines his struggles throwing the ball downfield with inaccuracy in the red zone. His 6.6 yards/attempt average was 31st in the league in 2015, and a completion percentage of just 44.7 percent in the red zone was good for 33rd. Kaepernick has a chance to see action at some point in 2016 , but his chances at regaining his prior form aren’t great, given that the 49ers play six games per year against the stingy pass defenses of the NFC West.
Running Back
Carlos Hyde
A popular breakout pick this year, Hyde may not be as great as we remember. Yes, Hyde’s 2015 season-opening 168-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Vikings was awesome and showed how great he can be when everything is clicking. The problem is that Hyde has essentially been a nonexistent fantasy option the rest of his career, totaling over 55 rushing yards just one additional time in 21 career games, resulting in a career average of just 7.59 fantasy points per game. Because of Hyde’s inconsistent workload and lack of a receiving presence, he has totaled over 20 touches just three times in his career.
It’s easy to say that Hyde should undoubtedly get more opportunity in Kelly’s fast-paced offense that loves to run the football, but what happens when that offense can’t stay on the field? If preseason snap totals mean anything, the 49ers could be looking at a lot of games in which they are not only playing from behind but also struggling to move the ball with a below-average offense. Hyde has had no more than 10 carries in 14 of his 21 career games and has averaged nearly four fewer carries in those games that the 49ers have lost. He has caught more than two passes in a game just twice in his career. And this is all before considering that Hyde’s career average of 4.06 yards per carry isn’t anything special.
Hyde is talented, and Kelly’s system did help Ryan Matthews average over five yards per carry last year. Still, Hyde is stuck on a bad team that expects to play from behind often in 2016. If Kelly does decide to ride the 6’0″ and 230 lb. Hyde, he could emerge as a RB2, especially in good matchups — but he will always carry a lot of risk with him.
Shaun Draughn
Now on his sixth team in as many years, Draughn has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over the course of his career and has never totaled over 60 yards rushing in a single game. However, Draughn put together a decent stretch of football in the second half of 2015 as Gabbert’s go-to check-down option, averaging over four receptions and 73 scrimmage yards per game in Weeks 9-15, giving him a respectable Plus/Minus of +4.06 during this stretch:
The problem with Draughn is simply that he may not be that good of a football player. Plenty of running backs could seemingly put up Draughn’s 2015 stat line with the same opportunity. Draughn has just one career touch of 30 yards or more on 105 career touches, and Draughn’s SPARQ-x score of just 109.3 (35th percentile among all running backs) highlights his lack of upside. Still, Draughn has shown that he can gobble up receptions from Gabbert as the 49ers three-down back. If Hyde were to miss some time, Draughn would likely be a cheap, high-floor option. Also, more people would go through the effort of learning how to pronounce his last name.
Mike Davis
Davis totaled 58 yards on 35 rushes in 2015. That is beyond terrible. While Davis enjoyed success at South Carolina, totaling 3,195 scrimmage yards in three seasons, his sad SPARQ-x score (nearly identical to Draughn’s) makes it tough to project Davis for a bounce-back second season. For what it’s worth, Davis showed some burst in Week 1 of the 2016 preseason . . . before losing two fumbles the following week. Davis needs to show a lot more than he has thus far in his short NFL career before he can be viewed as any type of fantasy option.
DuJuan Harris
In two games with the 49ers in 2015, Harris averaged 13.5 carries and 4.5 receptions for 118.5 scrimmage yards per game. Again: There are plenty of running backs in the NFL who are capable of accumulating decent yardage totals with 15-plus touches per game. During the rest of Harris’ 28 career games, he has never gained more than 73 yards rushing, and Harris had just five career receptions before ‘exploding’ for eight checkdowns in Week 17 of 2015. Even if Week 17 is an outlier, Harris conceivably has more upside than Draughn or Davis have, thanks to his strong measurables, highlighted by a 4.44-second 40-yard dash. Harris may be the 49ers’ second-best back on the roster, but for now he is fourth in line to receive touches.
Wide Receiver
Torrey Smith
One of the best deep threats in the league throughout his five-year NFL Career, Smith brought his big-play ability to the 49ers in 2015 with a league-leading 20.1 yards-per-reception average. Unfortunately, Smith caught only 33 passes last year (four for touchdowns) and finished the year 67th among all wide receivers in DraftKings points per game. Smith was largely an afterthought in the 49ers offense, which is odd given the success he enjoyed when targeted even just five times per game:
Smith is just 27 years old, and by all accounts still possesses the same ability that allowed him to average nearly 900 yards receiving and 7.5 touchdowns per year through his first four seasons in the league. The problem is that no receiver can be expected to match those totals on just 62 targets. Kelly’s No. 1 wide receivers have typically been good for over 16 PPR fantasy points per game, so there is some hope for Smith — but it’s not a good sign that he has been completely ignored in the offense through the preseason.
Smith has received just one target in three preseasons games, and Gabbert finished 2015 as the 33rd quarterback in deep ball attempts per game. Perhaps the 49ers’ preseason target share doesn’t mean anything, but even then Smith will open 2016 with five straight matchups against teams that last year ranked in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. If Smith can establish himself as Gabbert’s go-to receiver (which seems unlikely at this point), he will have a nice stretch of bottom-10 defenses in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers in Weeks 6-9.
Bruce Ellington
Based on his career totals of just 19 receptions and 215 yards receiving, you wouldn’t think that Ellington has the best chance to lead the 49ers in receiving, but this may be the case. We’ve touched on Gabbert’s deep ball troubles, which (when combined with a bad 49ers’ offensive line) means that there’s a good chance the passing attack will rely on short passes to receivers in space.
While Ellington’s 5’9″ and 197 lb. frame isn’t ideal, his 4.45-second 40-yard dash and explosive jumps and shuttle times are. Ellington averaged 15 yards per reception at South Carolina and scored 16 touchdowns on just 106 receptions. He never quite put together an amazing collegiate season, failing to total over 800 yards from scrimmage in any of his three seasons, but Ellington’s ability to make impact plays has been obvious enough to warrant high praise from Kelly.
Eagles’ slot receiver Jordan Matthews was targeted 100-plus times in each of his first two seasons with Kelly. Even though Matthews and Ellington are very different breeds of slot receivers, Ellington could possibly receiver that type of usage in 2016 . . . if he can stay healthy. Ellington has already dealt with ankle and hamstring issues this offseason, and his readiness for 2016 has come into question. If Ellington can stay on the field, Ellington (not Smith) could emerge as the 49ers’ leading receiver. On an offense that figures to be playing from behind often, Ellington could have a high weekly floor.
Quinton Patton
The 49ers’ projected trio of starting receivers (Smith, Ellington, and Quinton Patton) has combined for six yards receiving on one reception through three preseason games. Patton did manage to turn a swing pass/lateral into a three-yard ‘rushing’ touchdown in the Week 3 preseason game against the Packers, but that has been his only touch of the preseason.
Patton was more productive last year than he had been in 2013 and 2014, but it’s hard to get too excited about a guy who has never surpassed 70 yards receiving in a game. At 6’0″ and 204 lbs., Patton isn’t an exception athlete by any means but at least he has the versatility to play all three receiver positions. Still, he seems unlikely to make a fantasy impact in 2016 unless he receives regular targets as a dependable possession receiver.
DeAndrew White
Alabama’s former No. 2 receiver behind Amari Cooper, White at least has the speed (4.44-second 40-yard dash) to make up for his smaller stature (5’11” and 193 lbs.). White recorded just two receptions in 2015, but his five passes for 65 yards this preseason actually make him the most “productive” 49ers wide receiver under Kelly thus far. Not only is this sad, but it also shows just how unclear the 49ers’ depth chart currently is.
White never totaled over 550 yards receiving in a single college season, but he could feasibly replace Ellington as the 49ers’ slot receiver if needed to play as an injury fill-in. Even if White earns a consistent role in the offense, don’t expect anything more than the occasional decent week.
Aaron Burbridge
The Big Ten’s 2015 wide receiver of the year, Burbridge caught 85 passes for 1,258 yards and seven touchdowns in his senior campaign at Michigan State. Burbridge’s average size (6’0″ and 206 lbs.) combined with average measurables partially explains his sixth-round selection in the draft. It’s also worth noting that Burbridge never totaled more than 400 yards receiving before his breakout senior year.
Still, Burbridge has ‘held his own’ this preseason, picking up a whole seven yards on two receptions.
After Jerome Simpson was released by the team, it appears as though Burbridge will make the 49ers’ roster. I hope that he likes special teams.
Tight End
Vance McDonald
The undisputed superstar of San Francisco’s 2016 preseason with six receptions for 94 yards, McDonald may be the 49ers’ undisputed top fantasy option as well. His 475 yards in three seasons don’t necessarily point toward a breakout season, but he was productive in 2015 when given even a little bit of opportunity:
Four games is a very small sample, but McDonald put up 11.7 points per game when he received at least five targets, an average that would have ranked McDonald 11th among all tight ends in DraftKings points per game last year.
McDonald had only seven targets in the red zone in 2015, but he managed to convert three of them into touchdowns. On a team with so many question marks at receiver and quarterback, the 6’4″ and 267 lb. McDonald could wind up as the 49ers most productive receiver. McDonald’s SPARQ-x score of 129.6 is good for the 93rd percentile among all tight ends, and McDonald has shown flashes of this elite athleticism on the field. If Ellington misses time, McDonald could pile up targets as Gabbert’s check-down option thanks to Hyde’s minimal impact as a receiver. McDonald is potentially the only 49er with a real chance to finish 2016 as a top-10 player at his position.
Garrett Celek
Brent Celek‘s younger brother has yet to total over 200 yards in a season. He has never played in more than 13 games in a season during his four-year NFL career. Celek could see a higher number of snaps, due to the team’s subpar wide receivers and Kelly’s propensity to use two-tight end sets, but Celek’s next game with 50 yards will be his first.
Two-Minute Warning
With very few positives on the entire roster, it would be downright shocking for the 49ers to post a winning record in 2016 and borderline incredulous for them to have an above-average offense. Gabbert-led offenses have scored fewer than 20 points in 27 of his 35 career starts, and the 49ers’ bevy of underwhelming options doesn’t seem poised to turn this offense around.
The 49ers might be just as bad this year as they were last were — only at a faster pace.
