From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs is releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
San Diego Chargers Team Preview
For the first time since 2003 the San Diego Chargers failed to win at least seven games last year. The 2015 Chargers’ 4-12 record tied for the third-worst mark in the league, and while bad teams typically benefit the next season from a high first-round pick the Chargers are currently without third-overall selection Joey Bosa, who has joined a long list of Chargers to holdout for a large chunk of training camp.
Personnel changes on the offensive side of the ball include the addition of ex-Browns receiver Travis Benjamin as well as arguably the best tight end in the 2016 NFL draft, Hunter Henry, brought in to replace Ladarius Green. Vegas has set the Chargers’ 2015 win total at 7.5, a mark that may be more in line with the actual talent on the team. With nine of the Chargers’ 12 losses coming by no more than eight points, San Diego’s expected 2015 win total (in terms of points for and against) was actually six.
The 2016 Chargers will need to prove that their underachievement in 2015 was a one-year blip on the radar, but regardless of the team’s future success there are plenty of fantasy options for us potentially to feast on this upcoming season.
Quarterback
Philip Rivers
Despite the Chargers’ struggles in the win column in 2015, Rivers had another great statistical season. His career-high 4,792 passing yards were partially the result of San Diego calling the most pass plays in the league in 2015, and overall Rivers finished the year as the league’s 12th-best quarterback in average DraftKings points per game.
Despite this success from a fantasy standpoint, the 2015 season revealed a few different sides of the occasionally feisty Rivers. Domination continued against Rivers’ non-divisional opponents, as he has recorded a Plus/Minus of +5.6 against them over the last two seasons. However, Rivers’ struggles against the loaded defenses in the AFC West also continued, giving him a two-year Plus/Minus of -1.3 within his division. This is understandable: The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs each boast great defenses, and the Oakland Raiders have continued to improve with the emergence of Kahlil Mack. Still, keep in mind that Rivers has transformed from essentially Carson Palmer to Brock Osweiler when facing divisional opponents. That’s a bad version of Rivers, and we see him basically six times per year.
The next version of Rivers to keep an eye on is the Rivers who doesn’t have stud receiver Keenan Allen. Now entering his fourth season, Allen has been Rivers’ No. 1 target since his rookie season and without him Rivers has suffered greatly. Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Rivers was a reduced version of himself after Allen was lost for the season in Week 8.
Without Allen, Rivers threw for nearly 90 fewer yards and almost a touchdown less per game. Allen is back and healthy for 2016, but if he were to miss significant time then Rivers’ fantasy value would be substantially diminished.
With a healthy repertoire of weapons, Rivers should maintain his weekly QB1/2 status. He should particularly thrive in three early dates against the Jaguars, Colts, and Saints (Weeks 2-4), who last year all had bottom-12 defenses (in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last year). The rest of the way won’t be easy for Rivers thanks to his tough division, but in the aggregate he should continue to be a top-15 fantasy quarterback in 2016.
Kellen Clemens
Clemens is now entering his third year as Rivers’ backup. Considering that Rivers has played on a torn ACL before (and has started every game for the past 10 years), it’s very likely that we will continue not to see much from Clemens. If we do catch a glimpse of him, we shouldn’t expect much: Clemens has thrown for multiple touchdowns in only two of his 21 career starts.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon
The Chargers’ 2015 first-round pick out of Wisconsin, Gordon combined a brutal 3.5 yards-per-attempt average with zero touchdowns as a rookie. It’s easy to think that 2016 will be the year that Gordon ‘gets it,’ but (barring a fairly drastic schematic change) the opportunities for Gordon to rack up fantasy points may not be there even if he establishes himself as a consistent runner.
Despite a 44-yard touchdown catch this preseason, Gordon is the Chargers’ clear second option at running back on passing downs . . . and goal line snaps. Gordon’s 2015 opportunity share (percentage of the team’s running back carries and targets) was just 47.5 percent. Considering that the other 52.5 percent consisted primarily of red-zone snaps and passing downs, Gordon’s PPR upside is very limited. He had just one carry inside the five-yard line in 2015.
Additionally, Gordon doesn’t have the type of athleticism that suggests that 2015 was assuredly a fluke. Gordon’s SPARQ-x rating of 121 is in the 72nd percentile among all running backs, and this rating is comparable to those of his backfield mates Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver. He’s playing with guys who are just as capable as he is.
Gordon has the second-best NCAA season of all time in terms of total rushing yards, so it’s clear the guy knows how to run the football. The question is if a beastly Wisconsin offensive line may have had more to do with Gordon’s success than San Diego thought. Gordon’s spot in the backfield is far from secure, and with six fumbles in 2015 it may not take long for Gordon to find himself in the coach’s dog house. If Gordon does become ‘the guy’ in the Chargers backfield, he’ll have nice matchups against New Orleans, Atlanta, and Miami (Weeks 4, 7, 10), all of which last year had bottom-six defenses in average fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Danny Woodhead
Woodhead finished 2015 as the 13th running back in DraftKings points per game. His ability to finish 2016 with similar production will likely depend on the development of Gordon and on whether he remains the Chargers’ go-to third-down and red-zone back. If he continues to be used in a similar role, he could especially thrive in high-scoring games, as he did last year:
In those situations Woodhead has displayed remarkable Consistency, in part because of his work as a receiver. Last year Woodhead was targeted 106 times, 34th in the league among all players. He was targeted more than the No. 1 wide receivers on some teams were.
Woodhead has now scored at least six touchdowns in four of his five seasons in which he has played 15 or more games. As long as he remains the red-zone back, he’s a good bet to score at least six touchdowns this year. Gordon’s involvement will dictate how big of a weapon Woodhead will be in the Charger’s offense, but his combination of receiving skills and red-zone opportunity makes Woodhead a weekly consideration as a RB2.
Branden Oliver
Oliver may be the most complete back on the Chargers. It’s tough to knock Woodhead as a pure runner since he has never had more than 15 carries in a game, but Oliver’s ability as a three-down back has been apparent when he has received double-digit carries in games:
Oliver is shorter and slower than most running backs, but his limited usage over the last two years has been positive: He has caught 49 of his 60 career targets and turned two of his three carries inside the 5-yard line into touchdowns. Oliver won’t touch the field much unless Gordon or Woodhead misses some time, but Oliver has the proven ability to be a valuable fantasy back if given touches.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen
Allen suffered a kidney laceration in Week 8 of 2015, which in addition to sounding incredibly painful put an end to what was looking like a career year for Allen. With 89 targets through eight games, this pace would have given Allen the 4th-most targets in the league stretched over the whole season. Given that Allen’s 75 percent catch rate was also top-five mark in 2015, it’s not a stretch to say that Allen was on the verge of becoming a top-five fantasy WR last year.
A 2015 Plus/Minus of +5.79 demonstrates Allen’s DFS value, but Allen may never have the touchdown numbers that most top-tier receivers have. Allen has had just 12 targets inside the 10-yard line during his three-year career, a mark that five receivers passed in 2015 alone. Allen has produced 16 touchdowns in 37 career games, so it’s not like he’s incapable of finding the end zone. It’s just that Allen has been given fewer opportunities than you’d expect.
As the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in the most pass-happy offense in the NFL, Allen will be a weekly WR1 with a very high floor thanks to his high-target numbers. Allen could especially feast at the beginning and end of the 2016 season against an array of bottom-10 defenses in points allowed to wide receivers:
Travis Benjamin
After a quiet first few years in the league, Benjamin became potentially the first NFL player (other than Josh McCown) actually to benefit from Johnny Manziel’s existence. Benjamin was red hot to start 2015, posting a Plus/Minus of +7.42 through the Browns’ first eight games. This production (which was good for an average of 16.51 fantasy points per game) really fell off in the second half, though, as Benjamin posted a -0.5 Plus/Minus with just 9.59 fantasy points per game.
Still, Benjamin finished 2015 as the league’s 32nd wide receiver in average DraftKings points per game, and this was mostly due to Benjamin being one of the league’s more explosive receivers. Benjamin’s 14.21 yards-per-reception average was the 17th-best mark among all wide receivers with at least 50 receptions in 2015. That average could be even higher in 2016 as Benjamin fills the big-play receiver void in the Chargers’ offense left by the retired Malcom Floyd.
Floyd averaged 18.7 yards per reception in 2015, and while he didn’t have a consistent enough presence to make a weekly difference in fantasy Benjamin is entering his prime at age 26 and could easily beat Floyd’s 2015 totals of 561 yards and three touchdowns. While Rivers does seem to dink and dunk his way down the field at times, he still finished 2015 with the 16th-most deep ball attempts in the league. Benjamin may struggle to find a consistent role at first with Allen and Antonio Gates firmly established in the Chargers offense, but Benjamin does offer Rivers his best deep-ball threat in recent memory.
Dontrelle Inman
Inman took his first steps towards finding a role in the Chargers’ offense in 2015, securing 35 receptions for 486 yards and three touchdowns. More encouraging has been Inman’s production without Allen, as he has averaged 55 yards on four receptions per game when Allen has missed time over the past two seasons. When he has gotten targets, he has been productive.
Inman has nice size at 6’3” and 205 lbs., but he doesn’t have any combine feats or past production that truly jumps off the page. Inman could top his 2015 totals if Allen or Benjamin misses a bit of time, but don’t expect Inman to post many high weekly totals.
Tyrell Williams
Want a fast and large wide receiver? Look no further than Williams, a 6’4” and 208 lb. receiver with 4.40-second 40-yard speed and a higher SPARQ-x score than any of the other Chargers receivers have. Williams went to school at Western Oregon, a Division II program whose most notable alumnus is (in my opinion) ex-New York Giants tight end Kevin Boss. A torn labrum prevented Williams in his final year from putting up the incredible numbers we expect from a NFL receiver playing against Division II competition, but he at least was on the field at the end of last season and had the opportunity to score an 80-yard touchdown (on horrendous coverage). Also, Williams performed well in the Chargers’ second preseason game this year. If receivers ahead of him on the depth chart miss time, he could be a guy who has a few big games.
James Jones
The now 32-year-old Jones nearly doubled his 2014 average of 9.1 yards/reception last season with the Packers, going for 17.8 yards/catch and scoring eight touchdowns in the process. This helped Jones post a +2.47 season-long Plus/Minus. Brought into San Diego this offseason, Jones will look to replace Stevie Johnson, who suffered a season-ending torn meniscus. Pump the brakes on Jones replicating his 2015 campaign. It took until August 2nd for a team to sign him this offseason. Still at least Jones has proven that he can score touchdowns when targeted in the red zone. He might be just good enough at this stage of his career to limit the fantasy potential of a few receivers ahead of him on the depth chart.
Tight End
Antonio Gates
Despite missing five games in 2015 due to a suspension and injury, Gates’ per-game averages extrapolate to 81 receptions, 916 yards and seven touchdowns over a 16-game sample. Gates is now 36 years old but is just two years removed from a 2014 season that saw Gates post 12 touchdowns. This might seem like an unrealistic total for Gates in 2016, but Gates finished his 2014 as the NFL’s 5th-most targeted receiver inside the 10-yard line. With the 5’10” Benjamin replacing the 6’5” Floyd as the No. 2 wide receiver, Gates could see more targets in the red zone this year than he did last.
Gates has to slow down eventually, but I wouldn’t bet against him in the first half of 2016. After facing a Kansas City defense in Week 1 that last year was the best against tight ends in fantasy points allowed, Gates won’t face a defense ranked higher than 22nd in this category until Week 10.
Hunter Henry
If the four-year veteran Ladarius couldn’t dethrone Gates in 2015, don’t expect the rookie Henry to depose Gates this year. The Chargers’ second-round draft pick, Henry was widely considered the best tight end in the draft thanks to his receiving and blocking ability. At Arkansas, Henry played on one of the more physical running teams in the country, and he still managed to contribute on offense to the tune of 739 yards and three touchdowns as a senior. At 6’5” and 250 lbs., Henry has a bright NFL future ahead . . . just likely not until Gates retires.
Green averaged fewer than two receptions and 26 yards per game during his time in San Diego playing alongside Gates. Welcome to the NFL, Hunter.
Two-Minute Warning
The 2015 San Diego Chargers boasted the league’s 26th scoring offense and the 21st scoring defense. These ranks could flip in 2016 thanks to a full season of Allen and the departure of Pro Bowl safety Eric Weddle. Rivers is likely to throw the ball all over the field, and a worse defense could also ‘encourage’ the Chargers’ passing offense.
It’s hard to imagine the Chargers finding a way out of the cellar in the AFC West, but they’ll likely rack up plenty of yards through the air while they try. There will also probably be more angry Rivers moments.
