From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs is releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Pittsburgh Steelers Team Preview
The Steelers have built an offense featuring three players who could lead their positions in production in any given season. Ideally, they would also like it if Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell were healthy for an entire postseason run. Brown, for example, suffered a concussion against the Bengals in the Wild Card last season, promptly ending any chances he had of facing Denver in the Divisional Round. Lest DFS players forget, Brown torched the Broncos for 16 receptions, 189 yards, two touchdowns, and 49.9 DraftKings points in their Week 15 bout.
Importantly, though, the Steelers will be without wide receiver Martavis Bryant for the entirety of 2016. Although he’s not as impactful as any one of the Big Three, his absence is likely to have a trickle-down effect for every notable Steelers player.
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger
An MCL sprain took Roethlisberger out of action in Week 3, but he was his normal self before and after the injury. He averaged 27.85 DraftKings points and was the No. 2 quarterback through the first two weeks of the season. Once he returned in Week 8, he averaged 22.78 DraftKings points and was the No. 7 quarterback the rest of the way. He amassed 3,938 yards and finished with a career-high 68 percent completion rate and 76.8 QBR in only 12 games played.
Roethlisberger is tied with Russell Wilson for the fifth-highest salary ($8,500) among quarterbacks on FanDuel in Week 1. Despite Big Ben’s play last season, he has historically averaged 13.98 points when priced $8,500 or higher.
Martavis Bryant’s one-year suspension also dampers Roethlisberger’s outlook. With Bryant in the lineup over the last two seasons, Big Ben has averaged 336.3 yards and 2.1 touchdowns per game, pacing for 5,381 yards and 34 touchdowns over a full season. Without Bryant, the Steelers’ franchise quarterback has averaged 279.5 yards and 1.3 touchdowns, pacing for 4,473 yards and 21 scores.
Roethlisberger will be a useful DFS option at some point in 2016, but not while his salary prices him in the top-five at his position.
Landry Jones
Bruce Gradkowski’s hamstring tear all but seals the deal for Jones to enter 2016 as Pittsburgh’s backup quarterback. He played in two games as the Steelers No. 3 last season, recording 513 yards, three touchdowns, and a 58.2 percent completion rate. More importantly, Pittsburgh approached offense differently whenever Roethlisberger was out.
In 12 games that Big Ben started in 2015, Pittsburgh passed on 64.2 percent of their offensive plays, sixth-most over the course of an entire season. In four games with Michael Vick and Jones under center, the Steelers called run on 52.8 percent of their plays, No. 1 in the league. If Roethlisberger is out, avoid Pittsburgh’s quarterbacks altogether and make it a priority to roster the starting running back.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown
Fortunately for Brown, Bryant’s presence has little effect on his performance. All that matters for him is Roethlisberger’s health.
Over the last two seasons, Brown has averaged 12.2 targets, 8.8 receptions, 117.9 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game with Roethlisberger under center. When playing with Vick and Jones, Brown has averaged 7.7 targets, 4.2 receptions, and 58.7 yards per game. Last season, Brown averaged a -7.62 Plus/Minus at DraftKings whenever Roethlisberger was out. The results were much different once Big Ben returned from injury.
Brown’s peak 2015 salary implied that he would score 20.42 DraftKings points. With Roethlisberger, Brown averaged the production of someone priced beyond $13,000 — a non-existent price tag. As long as his starting quarterback is healthy, Brown is an obvious choice in cash games no matter the matchup.
Markus Wheaton
Ridiculed early into his career for his lack of size and inconsistency in catching the ball, Wheaton finished 2015 with career highs in receiving yards (749), touchdowns (five), and yards per catch (17.0). As an early third-rounder who starred with 4.02 and 11.16 20-yard and 60-yard shuttles at the 2013 NFL combine, Wheaton has taken a few seasons to find his footing, which he found in Week 11, when he hauled in nine catches for 201 yards against Seattle. That game also marked the beginning of the best stretch of Wheaton’s career.
Wheaton was the No. 17 receiver at DraftKings from Week 11 on, averaging 17.1 DraftKings points and a +9.71 Plus/Minus per game. Cemented as the No. 2 receiver in Pittsburgh, Wheaton is priced at $6,100 on FanDuel in Week 1, making him perfectly viable in tournaments — especially for someone looking to vacuum the 173 targets left vacant by Bryant and Heath Miller‘s absences.
Sammie Coates
Read any NFL news source and it’s clear that Coates has become 2016’s breakout training camp star. Picked in the third round of the 2015 NFL draft, he ‘merely’ averaged 20.9 yards per reception in three seasons at Auburn. Much like his closest comparable player — oddly enough, Martavis Bryant — Coates is a big-bodied receiver (6’1” and 212 lbs.) who flaunted strength and sheer explosion at the combine.
It doesn’t look like he’ll start for the Steelers in 2016, given how raw he is, but as someone who’s more athletically-gifted than almost anyone else on the team Coates is likely to get a real opportunity at some point to show what he can do.
Eli Rogers
Rogers is a twitchy slot receiver whom the Steelers signed as an undrafted free agent in 2015. He missed all of last season with a foot injury, but Pittsburgh was loaded at wide receiver then. With Bryant absent, the Steelers are expected to move Wheaton to the outside and start Rogers in the slot.
At 5’10” and 180 lbs., Rogers is comparable in size to Brown and Wheaton, and eventually the Steelers might want to bulk up their starting unit by using Coates, the bigger and more versatile receiver of the two. If his performance in training camp and preseason is any indication, Rogers might be around longer than expected.
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Since being selected as the No. 7 pick in the 2009 NFL draft, Heyward-Bey has failed to eclipse 1,000 yards receiving in any season, exceeding the 700-yard mark only once. He logged 55 percent of his snaps through the first five weeks of 2015, but was immediately benched once Bryant returned from suspension (the first time). DHB averaged 9.98 DraftKings points in that span.
With Rogers healthy and Coates’ breakout looming, another insignificant year from Heyward-Bey is what everyone should expect. At least that’s something he’s accustomed to by now.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell
Bell’s suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy was recently reduced from four games to three. He’ll return in Week 4 on Sunday Night Football against the Kansas City Chiefs.
In the five games that Bell finished last season, he averaged 20.6 carries, 102.2 yards rushing, 4.8 targets, 24.6 yards receiving, and +4.24 Plus/Minus at FanDuel. Oddly enough, his Plus/Minus at DraftKings (+3.26) was lower in that span despite the site’s point-per-reception scoring. Basically, he was more valuable at FanDuel since he was never implied to score more than 14.42 points there. At his peak, he was implied to score 20.3 points at DraftKings.
Todd Gurley’s $8,900 salary is the most expensive among backs on FanDuel in Week 1. In fact, only two runners (Gurley and Adrian Peterson) reached the $9,200 mark on FanDuel at all last season. If salaries for the position stay in that general vicinity all year, Bell should be a viable option at FanDuel each and every week. Not counting when he exited early against the Bengals last season, he has averaged (over the last two years) a +4.35 Plus/Minus in nine games at FanDuel when his salary has been between $8,800 (his Week 1 cost in 2016) and $9,200.
DeAngelo Williams
Williams’ role on this team is one that needs no overthinking. In the five games in which Bell was fully healthy last season, Williams averaged 10.8 percent of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps and a -6.86 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. He recorded a total of 13 carries and two targets in that span. In 10 games without Bell, Williams averaged an 87 percent snap rate, 17.8 carries, 80.1 rushing yards, 4.1 targets, and a +9.43 Plus/Minus at DraftKings.
Without Bell in their first three games of 2016, the Steelers face only one front-seven unit (Cincinnati) that finished last year in the top 10 in rushing defense, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Their other two opponents (Washington and Philadelphia) finished 22nd and 28th. In Week 1, Williams costs $7,100 at FanDuel. His price will surely increase in Week 2, but that’s nothing to be concerned about.
Williams’ volume alone makes him an easy cash-game play in the first three weeks of 2016.
Fitzgerald Toussaint
From Weeks 13-16, Toussaint received six carries as Williams’ backup. Once Williams was ruled out with a sprained ankle and foot in the playoffs, Toussaint averaged 14.5 carries, 5.5 targets, and a 76 percent offensive snap share in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds. Even with all of that volume, he was unimpressive, accumulating only 159 yards and one touchdown on 40 opportunities.
Toussaint’s not explosive by any means, but he’s guaranteed a bulk of the work if Bell and Williams are both unavailable, which is probably worth something, in the same way that dirt and manure are technically worth something.
Tight Ends
Ladarius Green
Since Green signed a four-year, $20 million dollar contract with the Steelers this offseason, he has recovered ‘very slowly’ from offseason ankle surgery, all the while denying any reports of headaches and potential retirement. He currently has no timetable to return, but is ‘holding out hope‘ that he’ll miraculously be able to play in Week 1. In other words, there’s really no way of knowing his status for 2016 at this time.
What’s concerning for the Steelers is that they signed Green to replace Heath Miller, who retired as an 11-year vet this past offseason. Fresh off of a year in which he set career highs in targets (63), receptions (37), receiving yards (429), and touchdowns (four), Green was signed by Pittsburgh on account of his explosiveness, which the Steelers have lacked at tight end for years. If he’s able to appear at some point this season, his height (6’6”) and speed (4.53 40-yard dash) would presumably mesh well in an offense lacking Bryant. Right now, that’s a rather large ‘if.’
Jesse James
Miller soaked up a majority of Pittsburgh’s tight end snaps last season, logging 924 to James’ 181. As a result, James finished with eight catches, 56 yards, and one score in his rookie year. It looked as if he would be an afterthought again in 2016, but Green’s stint on the Physically Unable to Perform list (PUP) has allowed James to run as the No. 1 tight end throughout training camp.
Miller scored only five touchdowns in the last two seasons but finished second on the team in red-zone targets both years. James didn’t exactly show superb hands at Penn State, but his size (6’7” and 261 lbs.) alone makes him an obvious choice for red-zone looks. If the Steelers stick with him rather than go out and sign a veteran tight end, he could be valuable once he becomes comfortable in their offense.
Two-Minute Warning
Whereas the Steelers were forced to play the AFC West and NFC West last season, they’ve been gifted the mediocre NFC East this season. They also play the AFC East this year, but they fortunately will face New England and New York at home in Pittsburgh. They also will avoid traveling to Arrowhead Stadium, playing host to the Kansas City Chiefs. Favored in 13 of their first 15 games, the Steelers have been kindly blessed by the schedule gods this year.
Roethlisberger will likely experience negative passing regression without Bryant, but Pittsburgh can still exceed its 10.5 win total due to the strength (or lack thereof) of its competition. If the Steelers can keep the trio of Roethlisberger, Brown, and Bell healthy, then Week 17 won’t be the last time DFS players can roster them this season.
