From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs is releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
New York Jets Team Preview
Last year, Ryan Fitzpatrick was a (relative) quarterbacking revelation. The unlikeliest of heroes produced career numbers across the board. He was more than everything the Jets could’ve hoped he would be. That said, it’s pretty easy to see how Fitzpatrick (and the Jets) could regress in 2016.
It’s a nice narrative: Under the hard-nosed first-year head coach Todd Bowles and old-school spread-the-field offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, the Jets were able to find their inner greatness, go 10-6, and just miss the playoffs in 2015 — and of course they will be plenty motivated to make the playoffs in 2016.
But that narrative is weak. The Jets’ 2015 schedule goes a long way toward explaining the revival they experienced last year, when they faced only one defense (Houston) that finished top-10 in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Their next toughest matchup came against the Patriots defense, which finished No. 12 in DVOA.
It won’t be so easy this season. Before they reach their bye in Week 11, the Jets face five defenses that finished top-10 in DVOA last season, four of which finished top-seven. They also lack any depth behind the playmakers they’ve emptied their piggy banks for in the last two seasons. If key offensive starters get injured this year, their lack of proven depth will likely be a problem.
Knocking off New England atop the AFC East is their dream, but the Jets will probably face a stark reality in 2016.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick
No one has ever accused Fitzpatrick of being efficient, but he was pretty good last year. The Jets finished third in red-zone touchdown percentage, due in part to Fitzpatrick’s 23 touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. His erratic completion percentage (59.6) ranked 29th among quarterbacks, but the ‘Amish Rifle’ still managed to set career highs in passing yards (3,905) and passing touchdowns (31).
With the exception of exiting early against the Raiders in Week 8, Fitzpatrick played every offensive snap in 2015 — something he hadn’t done for any team since 2012. He exceeded salary-based expectations in 13 of his 15 full games. From Week 9 on, only Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson averaged more DraftKings points (in fewer games):
The obvious take on Fitzpatrick is that he can’t possibly produce such numbers again. It’s possible that the Jets might pass the ball more in 2016, as running backs Matt Forte and Bilal Powell are both strong receivers, but it’s rather unlikely. As a play caller, Gailey throughout his career has tended to be rather balanced, and last year the Jets preferred a balanced approach, passing on 58.2 percent of their offensive plays (20th in the league).
Additionally, the Jets played at a pace last season that was much faster than Gailey’s offenses typically use. Maybe Gailey has decided that he likes the faster pace. But it’s very possible that the Jets are slower than they were last season.
In Week 1 against the Bengals, Fitzpatrick is priced just inside the top-20 at DraftKings ($6,500, No. 18 QB) and FanDuel ($7,300, No. 17 QB). Cincinnati intercepted more passes (21) than they allowed for touchdowns (18) last season and limited opponents to the fourth-lowest red-zone touchdown percentage. In other words, Fitzpatrick might not be the best option in Week 1.
Geno Smith
While Smith doesn’t impose any sort of threat to Fitzpatrick’s job, he’s clearly the Jets No. 2 quarterback. He’s also probably competent enough to keep their offense flowing if Fitzpatrick misses any time. Last preseason, Smith was slated to be the starter till he was sucker-punched by IK Enemkpali and Wally Pipped by Fitzpatrick.
Last year, Smith saw action in only one game — the Week 8 contest that Fitz exited early because of an injury. In that game, he completed 64.3 percent of his 42 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns. It was only one game, but it — when paired with Gailey’s history with quarterbacks — suggests that Geno could be a playable option if Fitzpatrick misses any games this season.
Running Backs
Matt Forte
Forte’s consistency has been exemplary since entering the league in 2008. He has started at least 12 games and recorded 200 carries plus 44 receptions in every season. While an MCL sprain sidelined him in Weeks 9-11, nothing he did last season suggested that the 30-year-old workhorse has lost a step. He averaged 4.1 yards per carry in 2015 — his career average is 4.2 YPC — and he had 14.25 DraftKings per game post-injury.
Chris Ivory’s departure leaves 247 carries, 30 catches, 1,287 total yards, and a league-high 85 percent share of New York’s carries inside the five-yard line available. While Forte inked a three-year, $12 million dollar deal with the Jets this offseason, he won’t instantaneously pick up where Ivory left off. New York also signed Powell to a similar contract this offseason (three years, $11.25 million dollars). They will likely be used as a tandem.
Powell shouldn’t see a massive uptick in rushing attempts, since New York prioritizes his pass-catching abilities. It’s plausible that Forte gets handed 220 carries. The real question is whether Forte will get New York’s goal-line touches. Unfortunately for Powell, he didn’t receive a single carry inside the five-yard line last season. Forte, on the other hand, has progressed in that area over the last four seasons. From 2008 to 2011, he scored on only 19 percent (eight-for-42) of his carries inside the five-yard line, but has since scored on 33.3 percent (11-for-33) of such carries. He will probably be the goal-line back.
And if Forte is getting 220 carries, goal-line touches, and something close to his usual number of receptions, he will likely be a regular option in cash games as long as his salary doesn’t get too high.
Bilal Powell
The Jets preferred to pass when Powell was their featured back last season, and it wasn’t due to game script: New York’s point differentials in those six games were +13, -7, -7, +3 (in overtime), +3, and +6 (in overtime). When the Jets passed, Powell benefitted. In the six games in which he logged a majority of the backfield snaps, Powell averaged 13.5 touches and a +10.85 Plus/Minus at DraftKings (+7.45 at FanDuel). He averaged 7.2 touches per game and a +1.69 Plus/Minus at DraftKings (+0.6 at FanDuel) in his five other contests.
Given his role as a pass-catching back, Powell always has a chance to meet value as long as his salary doesn’t increase dramatically.
Khiry Robinson
Robinson spent the last three seasons with New Orleans, where he was primarily used as its bruising red-zone back. Seven of his eight career touchdowns have been scored within 10 yards of the goal-line. In the last two seasons, though, a tibia fracture and strained forearm forced him to miss a total of 14 games. If he can stay healthy, there’s a chance that the Jets will attempt to save Forte some bruises by using Robinson in goal-line situations.
And if Forte were ever to miss time it’s not a given that Powell would automatically be the lead back. Robinson actually has a higher career yards/carry average than Powell (4.1 to 4.0), he’s built like a lead back (6’0″ and 220 lbs.), and on a small sample he has proven himself to be a very competent receiver (25 receptions on 31 targets for 7.1 yards per reception).
Robinson might be just a typical third-string back who almost never touches the ball. If things break right for him, he could be a workhorse who provides immense value.
Bernard Pierce
Pierce is suspended for the first two games of 2016. When he’s eligible to play, it’s debatable whether or not he even poses a threat to Robinson. Pierce’s best season came as a rookie in 2012, when he averaged 4.93 yards/carry. On the surface, that seems fine. But 120 of his 532 rushing yards (22.5 percent) came on only three carries, and 43.5 percent of his rushing attempts resulted in runs of no more than two yards. And that was him at his best. Four years ago. Robinson’s role is safe.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Marshall
No one envisioned the extent to which Marshall would burst onto the scene as a first-year Jets receiver. Following a season in which he failed to record 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since his rookie year, Marshall led New York in targets (173), receptions (109), and receiving yards (1,502), additionally chipping in a career-high 14 receiving touchdowns. In fact, only two receivers averaged more DraftKings points per game.
It’s hard to picture Marshall recording back-to-back 1,500 yards seasons (especially as a 32-year-old), but he’s certainly in the right situation to provide value. Not only do the Jets still lack any notable depth behind their top receivers, but Marshall (who costs $7,800 at DraftKings and $7,700 at FanDuel in Week ) opens the year priced behind several receivers he outperformed on a weekly basis last season: Alshon Jeffery, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, et al. Marshall also recorded a 75 percent Consistency at FanDuel in 2015, and when he dropped below $8,000 there he was basically solid gold:
Marshall averaged 10.8 targets per game last season, sixth-most in the league. While Marshall might see some slight regression in targets, even if Marshall simply slips back to his career per-game averages (5.8 receptions, 74.2 receiving yards, and 0.52 touchdowns) he should still be a weekly option in cash games.
Eric Decker
The Jets’ acquisition of Marshall last season turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Decker. Initially signed in 2014 to be New York’s No. 1 receiver, Decker was most often used on the outside that year. Despite his strengths as a slot receiver in Denver, he ran only 15.1 percent of his routes from there in 2014. With Marshall, though, Decker was allowed to run 68.1 percent of his routes from the slot last season. That’s not the only reason he was elected Mr. Most Consistent at DraftKings in 2015, but it certainly helped.
Decker also had a knack for the end zone. Whereas Marshall led the Jets in targets and receptions, Decker led the league with 28 red-zone targets and finished fifth among receivers in average touchdowns per game, going so far as to have three different streaks of at least three games with a touchdown.
Like Marshall, Decker is likely to provide value, at least in Week 1. Priced at $6,900 on FanDuel and $6,600 on DraftKings to open the season, Decker was immensely valuable on FanDuel last year when he was priced below $7,000:
As noted earlier, the Jets’ Week 1 matchup against Cincinnati isn’t ideal. At his price, however, Decker still makes for a tremendous value across sites.
Quincy Enunwa
Enunwa logged 524 snaps for New York in 2015 as a hybrid tight end/wide receiver. Listed as the No. 3 wideout, Enunwa isn’t really that enticing right now. Last year, Fitzpatrick targeted Marshall and Decker on 50 percent of his passing attempts. Enunwa, on the other hand, recorded only 46 targets (8.2 percent). With second-year receiver Devin Smith expected to begin 2016 on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, Enunwa is likely to open the season with the first team in three-wide sets, and maybe his elite blend of size and athleticism will enable him to see some targets, but if Marshall or Decker ever miss time he’s very unlikely to see a large increase in targets.
Jalin Marshall
Most reviews from training camp say that the 21-year-old rookie’s playmaking ability at Ohio State is transitioning to the practice field. His 84-yard kick return in Week 1 of the preseason is a great example of his explosiveness. 34.6 percent of his punt returns in college also went for 15-plus yards. Marshall didn’t have great production in college and he declared for the draft two years earlier than he needed to and, unsurprisingly, went undrafted. It’s rare for anyone to be targeted 10 times in a preseason game, but Marshall was in Week 2. So maybe the team sees something in him. Of course, that he turned those targets into only four receptions for 37 yards doesn’t look great.
Kenbrell Thompkins
No one has made a better living on a six-game stretch three seasons ago than Thompkins has. He averaged 3.5 receptions for 53 yards and 0.6 touchdowns through Week 6 of 2013, but has since averaged 2.3 catches for 27.3 yards per game. He hasn’t scored since Week 6 of 2013, either. Feel free to forget his name immediately following this sentence.
Devin Smith
Smith is eight months removed from ACL surgery. While he’s expected to start the year on the PUP, there’s no guarantee he will be ready to return once eligible in Week 7. As a second-rookie, he averaged not even one catch per game last year. Rumor has it that recovering from injury while simultaneously developing as a slot receiver isn’t the best recipe for success.
Tight Ends
Jace Amaro
A torn labrum suffered during the preseason last year cost Amaro, the 49th pick in the 2014 NFL draft, the entirety of his sophomore campaign. Now healthy, Amaro will hope to flash the ‘nastiness’ that made the Jets draft him that high in the first place.
Amaro is only three seasons removed from a historic 2013 performance, finishing with an FBS-record 1,352 receiving yards (as well as seven touchdowns) in his final year at Texas Tech. If he can show any signs of progress thus far, then maybe he’ll find his way into a few DFS lineups this season. Fortunately for him, New York has very little competition at tight end.
Kellen Davis
There’s a difference between being a tight end and playing tight end. Exhibit A: Last year, Davis led the Jets’ tight ends in snaps. He played all 16 games. He was targeted 11 times for three receptions, one of which was a touchdown. It’s hard to say whether he was better or worse than fellow tight end Jeff Cumberland, who on 14 targets had five receptions for 77 scoreless yards.
It’s also hard to say whether those two guys are better than you and I.
Two-Minute Warning
The Jets are favored in five of their first 15 games. Their first 10 games are tough, but their schedule from Week 12 on — New England, Indianapolis, at San Francisco, Miami, at New England, Buffalo — offers elite offensive matchups in what should be a bevy of high-scoring affairs. By the time they get there in the season their season win total (8) will likely be in doubt, but at least their salaries along the way should decrease substantially. By the time they get to the shootouts, most of their offensive players will probably be priced to return value for the rest of the year. Misery loves company.
