From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs is releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Minnesota Vikings Team Preview
The 2015 Minnesota Vikings, behind the league’s fifth-best scoring defense, finished the year at 11-5 and were a 27-yard field goal away from securing their first playoff win since 2009. ‘The Blair Walsh Project’ may no longer be an elite fantasy football team name, but the Vikings’ strong defense and ball-control offense should give them a good chance to repeat their success in 2016.
Vegas has set the Vikings’ 2016 win total at 9.5, which is nearly identical to the team’s 2015 expected win total of 9.8 (based on points scored and points against). As has been the case for the past eight years, Minnesota’s success will rest on the shoulders of Adrian Peterson. The workhorse (and confirmed ninja turtle) is now 31 years old but is fresh off winning his third career NFL rushing crown in 2015. Whether Minnesota will take a step forward in 2016 remains to be seen, but plenty of Vikings’ have the ability to swing your weekly fantasy matchups.
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater
Bridgewater was a big reason for the Vikings’ success in 2015. Yards, completion percentage, interceptions, and adjusted yards per attempt are just a few categories in which Bridgewater improved — but despite this improvement Bridgewater’s DFS value was absolutely brutal . . . as was the injury he recently suffered in training camp.
With a torn ACL and dislocated knee, Teddy Terrific is done for 2016.
Shaun Hill
Hill joined the Vikings in 2002 as an undrafted free agent out of Maryland. In 2006 he left the Vikings for the 49ers, where he pretended to have fantasy relevance for a few years. From there, he made his way to Detroit and then to Los Angeles St. Louis, starting at least eight games in each location, and then he returned to Minnesota last season. A professional backup, Hill has the saddest of ceilings, averaging only one touchdown per game in the eight starts he made with the Rams in 2014.
With a 16-18 career record, Hill is competent enough in #QBWinz to be a game manager who doesn’t destroy the team’s chances of competing in any given contest, but as the full-time starter he’s likely to sabotage the season. His presence on the field will likely drag down the productivity of the entire offense.
Running Back
Adrian Peterson
“All Day” returned to the gridiron in 2015 after being suspended for nearly all of 2014, and he quickly reclaimed his throne as the league’s most productive running back (on the ground). Peterson dominated throughout 2015, winning the rushing triple crown (most rush attempts, yards, and touchdowns). This dominance was especially on display when Peterson got to work outside the confines of the NFC North:
As our Trends tool shows, Peterson posted a solid Plus/Minus of +2.92 when facing non-divisional opponents in 2015. This is opposed to a Plus/Minus of -2.51 against the NFC North, which is intriguing considering that Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit all ranked 15th or lower in fantasy points allowed to running backs in 2015. All in all, Peterson finished 2015 as the fifth-best running back in terms of average DraftKings points per game.
At some point, Peterson will lose his battle with Father Time, but it’s tough to predict when that will be. Peterson led the league in evaded tackles in 2015, and there’s no reason to believe that his elite workload is going anywhere. The Vikings’ 474 run plays were the fourth-most in the league in 2015, and Peterson complimented his league-leading rush attempts with the third-most rushes inside the five-yard line.
If he’s healthy in 2016, Peterson will likely get the ball. A lot. Again. Especially with Bridgewater now out. Additionally, he has a very friendly second half of the season. From Week 12 on, each of Peterson’s opponents are ranked 15th or lower in 2015 running back fantasy points allowed, highlighted by bottom-10 finishers Dallas (Week 13), Jacksonville (Week 14) and Chicago (Week 17).
Jerick McKinnon
McKinnon is one of the most athletically gifted running backs in the league. With an estimated 155.7 SPARQ-x score (which rates a player’s Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction time, and Quickness), McKinnon finds himself in the 100th percentile among all running backs. It’s easy to see why this is the case, as McKinnon’s NFL combine numbers are elite across the board, highlighted by a 4.41-second 40-yard dash.
On the field, McKinnon has shown the ability to live up to these combine numbers. On 52 carries in 2015, McKinnon averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, and back in 2014 (with the opportunity to play more during Peterson’s suspension) McKinnon averaged 93.75 yards rushing in his four games with 15 or more carries. It’s easy to look at this raw ability and production and assume that, if Peterson were to miss time, McKinnon would be massively productive. That could happen, but maybe not, as third-string running back Matt Asiata is an experienced vulture who could eat away at McKinnon’s opportunities.
With just two touchdowns on 165 career carries, McKinnon’s fantasy potential is limited due to his inability to find the end zone. It’s not as if McKinnon has gotten tons of opportunity and proven himself to be terrible. In 2014, he received exactly zero carries inside the five-yard line, compared to 12 for Asiata. It’s clear that McKinnon is the superior runner (career 4.9 yards per carry for McKinnon compared to just 3.6 for Asiata), but a split backfield in Minnesota would seemingly leave McKinnon short on red-zone opportunities and potentially passing downs (McKinnon had 41 targets compared to Asiata’s 63 in 2014). McKinnon’s physical gifts still make him THE handcuff to have in Minnesota, but his ceiling is limited as long as Asiata is around.
Matt Asiata
Asiata’s 63 receptions over the past two seasons might suggest that he’s an elusive running back. He’s not. From 2014 to 2015, Asiata has as many 20-yard rushes as I do, and his 4.81-second 40-yard dash is young Peyton Manning slow. Asiata’s fantasy value revolves around his coach’s decision to use him as a receiver and goal-line back, and while it may be tough to get your mind around this the possibility exists that Asiata is Minnesota’s No. 2 back, not McKinnon.
With consistent receiving work and nine touchdowns in 2014, Asiata was able to overcome his putrid 3.5 yards/attempt to be the 20th-best back in terms of average DraftKings points per game. McKinnon finished 2014 as the league’s 41st-best running back in this same category. Even if a running back lacks explosion and consistency, he can still be a valuable player if he scores touchdowns and gets receptions — much more valuable than a running whose primary source of production is rushing yards.
There is the possibility that the Vikings’ view on McKinnon and Asiata has changed since 2014, but for now Asiata still holds plenty of value as a touchdown-dependent option if Peterson misses time.
Jhurell Pressley
Chances are you’ve never heard of Pressley, but that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t know who he is. One of college football’s most explosive running backs over the past few seasons, Pressley used his 4.38-second 40 time to lead the country in yards per attempt as a junior with an incredible 9.5 yards/carry in 2014. Averaging 1,028 scrimmage yards and 11.5 touchdowns over his final two seasons, Pressley never totaled 150 touches in a collegiate season, and he caught only 18 passes in his career. A change-of-pace back with enticing measurables but no proven receiving ability, Pressley will need a lot to go his way to make a fantasy impact in 2016.
Zach Line
We’ve already talked about one big-and-slow guy in this backfield. Why not another one? Line is a fullback . . . but so was Peyton Hillis before he randomly became a star in 2010. Line is not athletic, but he’s more athletic than Asiata and almost certainly a better player. In the NFL, he has converted both of his goal-line carries into touchdowns and he has turned his 12 targets into seven receptions, 103 yards, and another touchdown. More importantly, at Southern Methodist, he was the team’s lead back for three straight seasons. Never did he have fewer than 208 carries, 1,224 yards rushing, and 10 touchdowns in any of those seasons. As a senior, he actually had 33 receptions.
If Peterson got injured, and if the team didn’t want to use McKinnon as a receiver or on the goal-line, and if Asiata weren’t getting the job, then Line could probably do better than anyone thinks. He proved in college that he can play well in a system that runs almost exclusively out of the shotgun. I know that all of this sounds ridiculous, but much crazier things have happened.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs
The Vikings’ 2015 fifth-round draft pick, Diggs didn’t find the field until Week 5, and what followed was pure domination. The first wide receiver ever to record at least 85 receiving yards in his first four NFL games, Diggs posted an unreal Plus/Minus of +10.40:
While expecting this hot streak to last would have been wishful thinking, Diggs still disappointed for the rest of 2015. After recording two 100-yard performances and scoring two touchdowns in his first four games, Diggs failed to top even 70 yards in a game the rest of the season, and he scored just two more touchdowns in his final 9 games.
Despite this falloff, there is reason to believe Diggs can regain his dominance as the Vikings’ No. 1 receiver in 2016. Five of Diggs’ six best fantasy performances in 2015 came when he received at least nine targets, a mark that Diggs could see regularly if can seize a portion of the targets that belonged to Mike Wallace last year and also hold off first-round rookie Laquon Treadwell.
Diggs is a bit undersized at 6’0” and 195 lbs., and while Diggs’ combine numbers are good the truth is that Treadwell is the best receiving prospect the Vikings have had since . . . I won’t say his name but you know who I’m talking about. Part of the reason Diggs wasn’t able to post bigger touchdown numbers in 2015 was his nonexistent presence inside the 10-yard line — he was targeted there just once on the season — and the arrival of the massive Treadwell certainly won’t help Diggs get more red-zone targets.
Diggs has shown how great he can be, but unless the Vikings’ offense becomes much more pass-happy Diggs will need to gain a greater share of the team’s targets to make much of a fantasy impact in 2016. Even if Minnesota comes out and decides to feature Diggs as the WR1 he has (briefly) shown he can be, he will always be just a couple of bad games away from losing a devastating share of targets to Treadwell.
And, this goes without saying, but the injury to Bridgewater doesn’t help Diggs’ chances of seeing more targets.
Laquon Treadwell
I was not talking about Patterson. I was talking about Randy Moss. Treadwell is the best receiving prospect the Vikings have had since Moss.
Widely considered the No. 1 wide receiver in the 2015 NFL draft, Treadwell fell a bit in the first round to the Vikings at pick 23. This fall had to do with Treadwell’s speed — he clocked a 4.65-second 40-yard dash at his pro day — as well as potential injury concerns after Treadwell broke his leg in gruesome fashion during his sophomore season.
While these are fair concerns for Treadwell, he is an exceptional and young player. Treadwell’s 6’2″ and 221 lb. frame gives him an excellent chance to dominate in the red zone, and his collegiate production at Ole Miss was great. Treadwell returned from his leg injury in time to play his entire junior season last year, which he finished with 82 receptions, 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Treadwell’s lack of straight line speed shouldn’t be a massive concern as the Vikings don’t throw the ball deep much anyway, and the early returns on Treadwell are very promising. Sure, preseason stats don’t mean much, but it’s still a good sign to see Treadwell lead the team in receptions in Week 1 of the preseason. Treadwell isn’t as fast as Alshon Jeffery, but he’s a similar player. If Treadwell can be even a lesser version of Jeffery in the Vikings offense, he could lead the team in touchdowns.
Of course, Treadwell has seen little action in the preseason since the first game. He will likely struggle early in the season to see the field but could be a guy who gets some run in the second half.
Jarius Wright
Now in his fifth NFL season, Wright has made up for his small stature (5’10” and 182 lbs.) with big-play ability. Wright’s 14.3 career yards/reception is a top-40 mark in the NFL since 2010 among all receivers with at least 100 receptions, which is unsurprising, given his combine speed. In a more pass-happy offense Wright could perhaps carve out a fantasy-friendly role, but as it stands Wright has scored just sever career touchdowns, and his step back in nearly every statistical category in 2015 doesn’t bode well for 2016. Even if the Vikings’ receiving corps suffers injuries, Wright’s small size and lack of touchdown potential will likely limit his ceiling as a fantasy option.
Charles Johnson
Johnson has already made waves in 2016, as a preseason 49-yard touchdown against the Bengals demonstrated how Johnson is able to pull away from defenders with his elite speed. Johnson was a bit of a disappointment last season, but when he has gotten opportunity he has produced. In just four career games with seven or more targets, Johnson has averaged 4.5 receptions for 78.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. His combination of speed and size (6’2” and 215 lbs.) makes him the receiver most likely to benefit from an injury to either Diggs or Treadwell, but even then Johnson would need to get more involved in the red zone: Johnson has just two red-zone targets in the past two years.
Cordarrelle Patterson
It seems like just yesterday that C-Patz was making filthy touchdown runs that displayed his combination of speed and strength, but at this point expecting Patterson to be anything more than a return ace is wishful thinking. Patterson had two targets in 2015 — and he was healthy for the entire season. It’s looking more and more likely that the athletic 6’2” and 215 lb. Patterson just isn’t a good NFL wide receiver. In a best-case scenario, he could be used as a bigger 2015 Tavon Austin. Of course, Austin himself isn’t a very good wide receiver.
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph
In Kyle Rudolph’s second NFL season he scored nine touchdowns. That was in 2012. In the three seasons since then, Rudolph has scored just 10 touchdowns. At 6’6” and 259 lbs., Rudolph has the size to dominate in the red zone and score 10 touchdowns in a seasons, but even at this best he’s likely to be nothing more than a guy who scores touchdowns and doesn’t get a lot of receptions and yards. Last year in 16 games he had a 49-495-5 stat line. He was held under 15 yards receiving in seven games. Finishing 2015 as just the 24th-ranked tight end in average DraftKings points per game, Rudolph will need a change in the Vikings’ offensive philosophy in order to become a TE1.
Mycole Pruitt
While Pruitt’s size (6’2” and 251 lbs.) and production (89 yards as a rookie) are concerning, a 4.58-second 40-yard dash highlights the athletic ability Pruitt possesses. Pruitt won’t offer any fantasy value as long as Rudolph is healthy, but he does have some raw ability and consistently produced at Southern Illinois. Whereas Rudolph isn’t a yardage accumulator, Pruitt was seemingly built to be the type of tight end who can produce all over the field because of the unique matchup he presents.
Two-Minute Warning
The Minnesota Vikings will likely (again) be a good football team in 2016. Peterson will once again be the heart and soul of the offense, but there are sporadic matchups throughout the year that will afford the Vikings the opportunity to exploit teams that ranked poorly last year in fantasy points allowed:
With Bridgewater out, this team belongs to All Day all day.
