From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs is releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Kansas City Chiefs Team Preview
Through the first five games of 2015, Kansas City was 1-4 and outscored by opponents 117-143. Oddly enough, the offense wasn’t the issue. Quarterback Alex Smith and the Chiefs’ new toy, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, connected for 483 yards in that time, while Kansas City averaged 23.4 points per game — the league average in 2015 was 22.8. The Chiefs took a huge blow in Week 5 when starting running back Jamaal Charles tore his right ACL and was announced out for the year. The Chiefs weren’t just stuck upstream without paddles. They were barely staying afloat.
From Week 7 on, Kansas City suffocated opposing offenses and leaned on rotational players to piece together an 11-game winning streak (playoffs included). Whereas its defense allowed 28.6 points per game through the first five weeks, it allowed only 12.8 over the final 10 games. Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West were godsends in the backfield, combining for 1,256 total yards and 11 scores in that span. It’s as if the Chiefs saw an advanced copy of Suicide Squad and decided to do the complete opposite: Start slow and make the rest matter.
Coaching blunders (and other issues) cost them a trip to the AFC Conference Championship, but in 2016 they should be back and ready to compete, this time with their best offensive player. All signs indicate that Charles will be ready to play by Week 1. And if that is the case, make no mistake about it: The Chiefs’ 9.5 win total is entirely too conservative for a team built to play far into January and maybe even early February.
Quarterbacks
Alex Smith
Last season, Smith posted career highs in passing yards (3,486), QBR (66.5), raw fantasy points (273), and total DraftKings points (281). There’s no denying that it was his best overall season in terms of fantasy production. But he walks a fine line in that his floor, albeit as safe as they come, is almost as high as his ceiling.
Since 2014, Smith has finished with single-digit DraftKings points only twice — something Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer have also accomplished. The latter two, however, have scored at least 25 DraftKings points on four and five separate occasions in that span. Smith has eclipsed the 25-point mark at DraftKings just once in the past two years.
Since head coach Andy Reid joined the team in 2013, Smith has been one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL. He was at his best in 2015, finishing with 5.2 attempts and 31.1 rushing yards per game. Only Cam Newton (8.25), Josh Freeman (8), Tyrod Taylor (7.43), and Russell Wilson (6.44) averaged more rushing attempts among quarterbacks. Smith’s 498 yards and two touchdowns on the ground accounted for 61.8 DraftKings points (3.86 per week). Without that extra production, Smith would’ve had a DraftKings points average similar to that of (gulp) Teddy Bridgewater (13.77 vs. 13.65). Whether it was simply a byproduct of opposing defenses honing in on Jeremy Maclin or Smith theoretically attempting to run from his hand demons, he amplified a dimension of his production profile that DFS players just hope will remain important to him in 2016.
Nick Foles
An actual bidding war took place between several teams to acquire the services of Foles last month, and the Chiefs came out ‘ahead’ (if that’s what we’re calling it). He has yet to come close to mimicking the 2,891 yards and unsustainable 8.5 percent touchdown rate he had with Chip Kelly in 2013, but at least he’s familiar with Andy Reid from their time spent together in 2012. For what it’s worth, Foles has also thrown for 170 yards and completed 73.3 percent of his passes through the first two weeks of the preseason.
If he had to start a couple of games in place of Smith in 2016, there’s a chance that Foles would look more like the Reid and Kelly quarterback of 2012 and 2014 than the Jeff Fisher abomination of 2015.
Running Backs
Jamaal Charles
‘Injuries’ and ‘Charles’ are almost synonymous with one another, which seems odd since he has failed to play at least 15 games only twice in his eight-year career. Additionally, he has already proven capable of bouncing back from injury. He missed 14 games in 2011 with a torn ACL, but was fully healthy the following year, finishing with career highs in rushing attempts (285) and rushing yards (1,509).
Charles is now a 29-year-old veteran recovering from an injury he was able to return unscathed from as a 25-year-old workhorse, but his numbers prior to injury in 2015 suggest that he isn’t hitting a wall anytime soon. He was on pace for 1,224 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns through Week 4, which would’ve finished third and first among backs at season’s end. Only three runners averaged more DraftKings points through Week 5 last season.
More concerning than Charles’ health is that Kansas City now realizes what it has behind him in terms of depth. But Charles will still be the featured back in 2016 and shouldn’t be forgotten just because the Chiefs could potentially lighten his load. He costs $8,000 at FanDuel in Week 1 but has had no issues exceeding expectations at that price over the last two seasons.
While most DFS players will be concerned about his health in Week 1, likely limiting exposure to him in the process, it would not be shocking to see those who trust him win a few tournaments early in the season.
Charcandrick West
West is an average runner and noticeably less explosive than Ware. Still, the Chiefs entrusted West with 34 targets and a team-high 160 carries in Charles’ absence. He was at his best in a three-game stretch in Weeks 7-10, when he produced 412 total yards and four scores, averaging 25.73 DraftKings points per game in the process. Coincidentally, those three games were the only contests in which he received 20 carries all year. If volume is the key to his success, don’t expect him to get touches with Charles now healthy. He’ll probably be first in line, however, to lead Kansas City’s backfield in carries if Charles were to miss any time (again).
Spencer Ware
West may have received the bulk of touches once Charles went down, but it was Ware, the Chiefs’ bruising goal-line runner, who turned in a more efficient performance, especially inside the five-yard line. Ware received seven carries inside the five last season and scored on five of them. West scored twice on six carries from that territory. Ware’s salary also never exceeded $5,000 at DraftKings. Although it would likely be West’s show in the instance that Charles is injured, Ware might see some regular goal-line work even when Charles is healthy. Both West and Ware, however, have limited upside as long as all three running backs are healthy at the same time.
Knile Davis
After scoring eight touchdowns in 2014, Davis was arguably the worst back in the league at rushing the bell in 2015. Not only did his 28 carries result in an average gain of 2.6 yards, but he produced only one run of double-digit yards all season. Needless to say, Kansas City failed to find any team that would trade for him. He’s the Chiefs’ problem so long as he remains with them until Week 1, but they’ll probably find some unhappy suitor by then. A dynamic athlete, he’s in the final year of his first contract.
Wide Receivers
Jeremy Maclin
By simply signing Maclin to a five-year, $55 million dollar deal last offseason, the Chiefs morphed their receiving corps from a fantasy wasteland that couldn’t catch any touchdowns to a group of receivers that relied on Maclin for any sort of production. He acted as a magnet for Smith, recording a team-high 26.9 percent of Kansas City’s target share, and leading the team in receptions (87) and receiving yards (1,008). Once DraftKings dropped his salary below $6,000, he became mandatory in lineup construction there:
With no notable additions in their passing game, Maclin should easily average 8.2 targets per game again, if not more. He remains eligible in cash games every week, especially when his salary offers a substantial discount.
Chris Conley
The Chiefs continue hunting for field-stretching playmakers to start opposite of Maclin, hence Conley was moved from the slot to the outside this season. He caught only 17 passes as a rookie in 2015 but has the most upside of any Chiefs receiver because of his 6’2” and 213 lb. frame and blazing 4.35-second 40-yard speed. He also flashed potential in his final year at Georgia, averaging 18.3 yards per catch and converting 22.2 percent of his receptions into touchdowns.
The problem with Conley — in addition to the fact that he was never dominant in college and was probably over-drafted — is the guy throwing the ball to him. Smith simply prefers to throw the ball closer to the line of scrimmage and so Conley’s deep speed is basically wasted. Football Outsiders went as far as to name a stat after him. Conley did play in 70 and 60 percent of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in their two postseason games, though, so there’s still some hope that his snaps could lead to targets in 2016.
Albert Wilson
Like the rest of Kansas City’s receivers, Wilson is fast. He ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at the combine in 2014, which also explains how he averaged seven yards per carry during his time at Florida Prep and Georgia State. Unlike the rest of the Chiefs’ wideouts, though, Wilson (5’9″) is significantly smaller. That’s why Kansas City opted to move him to the slot this year, placing the much larger Conley outside.
Wilson logged the second-most snaps among Kansas City’s wideouts last season but will likely be viable only if Maclin were out for an extended period of time. A versatile playmaker in college, Wilson could be an important weapon for the the Chiefs if they simply decided to give him more opportunities to touch the ball.
De’Anthony Thomas
Thomas was a multi-faceted weapon in three seasons at Oregon, bursting onto the scene in 2011 with 1,200 yards from scrimmage and 16 total touchdowns. He averaged 8.4 yards per touch in his sophomore season, scoring 16 touchdowns for the second consecutive year. He played in 10 games in 2013 before exiting for the draft.
A running back-turned-wide receiver, DAT was selected in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and has generally underwhelmed since then as a part-time specialty player in the mold of Dexter McCluster. While DAT was a special talent in college, it doesn’t look good for him that the Chiefs this year drafted Tyreek Hill in the fifth round, as Hill is basically just another, younger version of Thomas.
Demarcus Robinson
Robinson had major character issues throughout his career at Florida, which was ultimately why he fell to the fourth round in April’s draft despite being an immense talent. Then again, for an immense talent, Robinson was never productive: In his final season of college, he had only 47 receptions for 520 yards and two touchdowns. He’s also not particularly athletic, running only a 4.59-second 40-yard dash at 6’1″ and 203 lbs. at the combine.
In the end, fourth-round wide receivers with limited college production and athleticism do one thing a lot as rookies if they’re lucky: Special teams.
Tyreek Hill
If Kansas City were to cut ties with De’Anthony Thomas, Hill would step in immediately as a part-time niche player and return man. Because of his off the field problems, the Chiefs immediately had to defend their selection of him in the fifth round this year, but Hill does have the talent to make this pick work out from a football perspective. As a track star at Oklahoma State he set school records for the indoor 60 and 200 meter dashes.
Hill also has a knack for big plays, recording four return touchdowns and four plays of 60-plus yards in 2015. In other words, his potential ceiling is high enough that his role needs to be monitored throughout the preseason.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce
Maclin is renown for hogging a majority of Kansas City’s targets while Kelce is renown for “The Quan.” What mini-Gronk should be known for is back-to-back 860-yard seasons with the Chiefs. Now entering his fourth-year with Smith under the helm, Kelce’s rapport with his quarterback has quietly allowed him to finish as the TE7 and TE9 over the past two seasons. What’s more is that he was as consistent as any tight end (or Chiefs receiver) when Charles was healthy last season:
Kelce’s targets also increased from 87 in 2014 to 103 last season. He barely made the cut for top-15 in red zone targets among tight ends, but his additional targets overall should offset the lack of red zone looks he received.
If Kelce experiences even a slight bump in red-zone usage this season, he could become a true top-tier tight end.
Demetrius Harris
Kansas City brought back Harris on a three-year, $6.3 million deal this past offseason. He appeared in every game but caught only seven passes for 74 yards and a touchdown last year, so the Chiefs didn’t resign him for his overall numbers. Rather, they are interested in his potential. Harris played basketball while attending the University of Milwaukee, and he currently stands 6’6″ and weighs 237 pounds. He only logged 337 snaps to Kelce’s 923 in 2015, but Harris has intriguing athleticism and upside that Kansas City hopes it one day will leverage. The same can’t be said for James O’Shaughnessy.
Two-Minute Warning
Kansas City finished 2015 ranked 26th in offensive plays per game and 12th in rushing attempts. A typical assumption would be that they’ll yet again play a slow-and-grueling pace and lean on the ground game this upcoming season. In their first four games with Charles, though, the Chiefs notably called pass on 58.6 percent (143 of 244) of their offensive plays, nearly five percentage points more than their 2015 average (54 percent).
If they choose to play uptempo and pass more, then Smith, Maclin, and Kelce might be much more useful than DFS players anticipate. Perhaps as useful as Charles. Either way, they’ll all likely be eligible in postseason DFS, too.
