From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs will be releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Indianapolis Colts Team Preview
Through four seasons of the Andrew Luck era, it has become evident that there are two different versions of the Indianapolis Colts. Version 1 appears when the Colts face one of their division rivals: Luck and the Colts are 17-2 versus the AFC South since 2012. Version 2 appears against everyone else, against whom Luck and the Colts are 18-18.
In 2015, the world saw the previously unknown Version 3: The Colts without their star quarterback. Luck’s injury-ridden year ended in a 2-5 record in seven starts, yet somehow the Colts finished 8-8. What does it mean that the Luck-less Colts went 6-3 with the ageless Matt Hasselbeck starting? In all likelihood, nothing. While the Colts didn’t make the playoffs in 2015, going 6-3 without their starting quarterback would seemingly point toward their having a talented roster. In reality, the Colts’ expected record (based on their points scored and points allowed) had the team at just 6-10. Last year they overperformed.
The Colts’ Vegas win total has been set at 9.5 for 2016, and this appears to be based on the idea that the Colts will return to their 2012-2014 form. Luck started 16 games the first three years of his career, and the Colts finished 11-5 each time. Regardless of how the Colts’ 2016 season pans out, there are plenty of capable fantasy options in Indianapolis.
Quarterback
Andrew Luck
2015 was not a great year for Luck as a whole, but the beginning was especially troubling. According to our Trends tool, Luck struggled mightily during his first three games, failing to surpass his expected point total even once:
A brutal Plus/Minus of -4.31 was the result, quite the drop off for 2014’s No. 1 overall quarterback in terms of average DraftKings points per game. Luck’s shoulder injury forced him to miss the next two games of 2015, but upon returning in Week 6 he began to look more like his usual self:
A healthy Plus/Minus of +5.34 was even more impressive considering that Luck’s final four opponents allowed substantially fewer points to quarterbacks on average than his first three opponents. In simpler terms: Luck performed on average nearly eight points per game better against stronger competition in his last four games of 2015.
It appears that Luck is healthy for 2016, and he should resume his status as a weekly high-end QB1. Luck especially has a soft schedule in Weeks 4-7:
The Colts used literally half of their 2016 draft picks on the offensive line in the hopes of keeping Luck upright. Since 2012, Luck has led the league in hits taken with 375. If the Colts can keep Luck standing in 2016, he will likely be the QB1 he has been since he entered the league.
Scott Tolzien
The retirement of Hasselbeck has created a void that Tolzien has filled as Luck’s newest backup. This might be obvious, but it needs to be said: Tolzien isn’t Hasselbeck, who was a former starter and Pro Bowl quarterback in his own right. As Luck’s backup, Hass could help the starter prepare for games and be an adequate game manager in short stints if needed. Tolzien, meanwhile, is a guy who has barely been good enough to be a backup, and even though he will be 29 when the season starts he’s still relatively short on actual NFL experience: He has thrown just one pass in the last two seasons.
And in 2013, when he was throwing passes on a pseudo-regular basis as Aaron Rodgers’ injury fill-in, it wasn’t pretty. His 7.97 yards/attempt average in that span was encouraging, but his 1:5 TD/INT ratio would make Jake Delhomme blush and was especially egregious given the Packers’ offensive weapons. In 2015, Hasselbeck was 36th in average DraftKings points per game. That might be Tolzien’s upside if he ever needs to start in Luck’s place.
Running Back
Frank Gore
Let’s start with the good. During Luck’s encouraging final four games of the 2015 season, Gore looked like his younger self. He ran well and averaged a +3.39 Plus/Minus across those games with 100 percent Consistency:
Gore was more efficient with Luck on the field as well, posting an average yards per attempt of 4.1 with Luck and 3.4 without. Still, Gore ended 2015 with a career low 3.7 yards/attempt average. He finished the season tied (with Bilal Powell . . .) for 24th in DraftKings points per game among running backs. He accumulated a respectable 1,234 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns last year, but his campaign frankly reeked of latter-day Edgerrin James. Not every old running back who can still play 16-game seasons should.
Will a healthy Luck help make Frank somehow less mediocre? Maybe, but expecting Gore to ball out in 2016 goes against everything we’ve come to expect from 33-year-old running backs. Since 2000, zero running backs who are at least 33 years old have had over 1,000 yards rushing. Out of this group, only Emmitt Smith notched more than 200 carries in a season and only 10 running backs cracked the 100-carry threshold. Additionally, only three of these 10 running backs to have at least 100 carries also averaged over four yards/carry.
History doesn’t like Gore’s chances for success in 2016. Ultimately, if you like Gore, you’re hoping that his volume will outweigh his inefficiency. At least he looks like (for now) the Colts’ clear-cut starter, and sometimes opportunity is all successful fantasy running backs need. At least last year he was targeted 58 times in the passing game. His receiving capability alone gives him a reasonable floor each game, but his 25 percent touchdown rate on 12 carries inside the five-yard line from 2014 to 2015 speaks to his relatively low upside. Anything more than a mid-RB2 season on a points-per-game basis would be stupendous.
Robert Turbin
Turbin’s four-year career has resulted in 281 carries for 1,127 yards. With 50 career catches, Turbin has shown that he has the ability to be a consistent, albeit underwhelming, three-down back. The elephant in the room is Turbin’s one career rushing touchdown, but this appears to have more to do with opportunity than talent, as Turbin has literally never had a carry inside the five-yard line. At 5’10” and 222 lbs., Turbin has the frame to score touchdowns, and a Luck-led offense is going to score points: 2014 saw Ahmad Bradshaw score eight touchdowns on just 128 touches.
Turbin has never been a game-breaking back (with a career long rush of just 26 yards), but he is athletic and probably possesses a higher upside than Gore. If Gore struggles, Turbin could become the Colts’ lead back.
Jordan Todman
There is a lot to like about Todman as an athlete. A 4.40-second 40-yard dash is great, but Todman’s elite jumps in his pre-draft workouts truly indicated the type of explosive player he has the potential to be. Five years after he was drafted in the sixth round as an early entrant, that potential is still there.
Todman has displayed his explosiveness on the field, posting three runs of 30-plus yards in his 115 career carries, and Todman’s 40 career receptions highlight his three-down ability. With more athletic upside than Turbin, Todman could at least be a very good change-of-pace back for the Colts. At best, he could be Devonta Freeman. That might seem ridiculous, but Todman was a workhorse in college, accumulating 3,162 scrimmage yards and 29 all-purpose touchdowns in his final 25 games at Connecticut. He almost certainly won’t be this year’s Freeman, but it’s possible.
Josh Ferguson
An undrafted rookie out of Illinois, Ferguson never totaled over 800 yards rushing in any of his five years in Champaign, so he’s unlikely ever to be a true lead back — but he was an excellent collegiate receiver, averaging 41.5 receptions for 373.3 yards across his four non-redshirt seasons. Additionally, over his final three seasons (35 games), he averaged 101.9 scrimmage yards and 0.74 touchdowns per game. He’s smaller and less of an athlete than Todman is, but he definitely has the ability to contribute as a very good third-down back.
Stevan Ridley
After fumbling away his role in New England and failing to impress with the Jets last year, Ridley signed with the Lions this offseason . . . and was just cut by the team this preseason. Naturally, the Colts signed him because they lack a proven workhorse back behind Gore. I know what you’re thinking: “What About Bob?” I know. It’s a really underrated movie.
It has been years since Ridley was a 1,200-yard, 12-touchdown back with the Patriots, but at least he has that season on his resume. Still, over the last two years he has averaged only 3.3 yards/carry. Even if he does stick to the roster as a potential insurance policy for Gore, he’s unlikely to be a three-down back: As a receiver, he might as well have the hands of Jaime Lannister.
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton
The entire Colts’ offense obviously benefits from having Luck on the field, but no one perhaps more so than Hilton. While Hilton finished 2015 as the 29th receiver in average DraftKings points per game, he was his typical top-20 self during Luck’s post-shoulder injury month-long stretch:
This encouraging (albeit small) four-game sample even includes Hilton’s one-reception, 15-yard ‘performance’ against Josh Norman.
As he has done in each of the last three seasons, Hilton is likely to see 130-plus targets in 2016, but he’s also just as likely to continue scoring a minimal number of touchdowns. Hilton has never scored more than seven touchdowns in a single season, and he has received just 11 targets inside the 10-yard line during the past two seasons combined.
Hilton’s explosiveness is great — he has five career games with over 150 yards — but his volatility also renders him an inconsistent fantasy option. Hilton had 10 games in 2015 with fewer than five receptions and six games with under 50 receiving yards. Hilton has proven himself to be worthy of weekly WR1 consideration — he had the 10th-highest DraftKings points per game in 2014 — and he should push his streak of 1,000-yard seasons to four this year, but don’t expect him all of a sudden to double his touchdowns and become a top-five option.
Donte Moncrief
Both Hilton and Phillip Dorsett stand at just 5’10” and weigh under 200 lbs., making Moncrief the only big-bodied wide receiver likely to see regular targets. In 2016, he has a great opportunity to emerge as the team’s go-to WR2. At 6’2” and 221 lbs., Moncrief combines his prototypical size with outstanding athleticism. After doubling his targets, receptions, and touchdowns in 2015, Moncrief is primed for a third-year breakout.
With Hilton and Dorsett serving as the smaller field stretchers in Indy, Moncrief ideally will complement them as the team’s primary receiver in the red zone, where he can use his size and leaping ability to maximal advantage. In 2015, despite receiving only 12 red-zone targets, Moncrief notched five red-zone touchdowns, the second-most in the league among receivers with 12 or fewer such targets. Also, five of Moncrief’s six touchdowns came during Luck’s first five starts of the season.
Moncrief’s role in the Colts’ offense is established (he averaged over 6.5 targets per game in 2015), and a full season of Luck could turn more of Moncrief’s targets into scores. With the departures of Andre Johnson and Coby Fleener freeing up 161 targets from last season, Moncrief is positioned well to gain target market share and make a run at double-digit touchdowns.
Phillip Dorsett
The Colts’ 2015 first-round pick figures to be a bigger part of the offense in 2016, but Dorsett will need to prove that he is more than just a fast guy who goes long. His rookie campaign of 18 receptions for 225 yards and one touchdown leaves much to be desired. Having entered the league as an assumed big-play receiver, Dorsett posted just one catch over 30 yards last year.
As Eleanor Roosevelt once (allegedly) said: “America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed.” Dorsett’s 2016 fantasy outlook is based on 1) the dearth of talent behind him on the depth chart and 2) his speed. At 5’10” and 185 lbs., Dorsett ran his 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds at the 2015 NFL combine. With opposing defenses focusing on Hilton and Moncrief and with so many 2015 targets up for grabs, Dorsett has the opportunity to put his game-breaking speed to good use this season, but even if he takes a significant step forward he is still likely to be a very distant third behind Hilton and Moncrief.
Quan Bray
Yet another 5’10” wide receiver, Bray was the Colts’ primary return man in 2015, actually leading the AFC in kick return average, which is really good for someone you’ve never heard of. Although the news out of training camp is that Bray is ready to be more than a return man, Bray underwhelmed as a receiver in his four years at Auburn, amassing only 853 yards and seven touchdowns in four years. Considering that he has zero receptions in his NFL career and that his college career was below average for an NFL player, Bray is highly unlikely to emerge as a DFS asset, even if he were to see increased playing time do to an injury to a receiver ahead of him. That he’s the No. 4 receiver to the most-coveted No. 1 overall pick of this generation is egregious.
Josh Boyce
Boyce is living proof that Tom Brady isn’t capable of turning any wide receiver into a contributing starter. Boyce’s two years in New England resulted in just nine receptions for 121 yards, which he followed up with a year of . . . no stats. In his penultimate season at Texas Christian University, he had 999 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns and in his pre-draft workouts he blazed his 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds, but Josh Docston he is not. At the same time, he’s also not any of the guys on the depth chart behind him, all of whom combine to have the same number of NFL catches as Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman.
Tight End
Dwayne Allen
When the Colts allowed Coby Fleener to walk in free agency, Allen’s 2016 fantasy outlook got a lot better. Luck’s aforementioned negligence of Hilton in the red zone is the result of his continuous decision to target his tight ends inside the 20-yard line. With eight touchdowns each in 2014, the Colts’ tight end duo tied for the team lead. Fleener, with 50-plus catches in each of the last three seasons, has always been the bigger receiving threat, but Allen still managed to convert six of his eight targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns from 2014 to 2015.
Allen’s numbers are bound to increase in 2016 due to the loss of Fleener. Still, Allen has played in only 27 of 48 possible games from 2013 to 2015, and his consistent trouble with injuries combined with the emergence of Moncrief and (potentially) Dorsett make Allen’s fantasy production very touchdown-dependent. At 6’3” and 255 lbs., Allen is the team’s largest regular receiver, but he’s still relatively undersized for a tight end. There’s also the underappreciated possibility that new No. 2 tight end Jack Doyle will steal a few more 2016 reps from Allen than people believe he will, making Allen’s fantasy outlook a bit of a low-ceiling mystery until the Colts’ offensive tendencies are defined more clearly.
Jack Doyle
At 6’5” and 254 lbs., Doyle is taller than Allen, but his production in three years with the Colts has been limited. When he did see action as the No. 3 tight end, he didn’t exhibit any explosive qualities, averaging 5.97 yards per reception, which ranks dead last among all tight ends to record a reception since 2013. Doyle’s fantasy impact in 2016 will likely be non-existent unless his new role as the No. 2 tight end results in his somehow receiving double-digit targets in the red zone.
Two-Minute Warning
In Luck’s great 2014 season, the Colts finished 6th in the NFL with 28.6 points per game. There’s no doubt of what Luck is capable of doing on the football field, and he may have his most talented set of weapons yet in 2016. Unless Gore is able to be the workhorse that so many 33-year-old running backs have not been, the Colts offense should throw the ball quite often. Hilton and Moncrief in particular are almost bound to register triple-digit targets from Luck.
Both the Colts and their fantasy players will live and die with Luck in 2016. There will be speed all over Lucas Oil Stadium, and this season will mark the first time that we get a sustained look at the Hilton-Moncrief-Dorsett trio, drafted by the Colts over the years with Luck specifically in mind. If Moncrief and Dorsett live up to their potential and draft pedigree, this triumvirate of wideouts could rival the best receiving units in the league. Still, more so than with any other team, with the Colts it all comes down to Luck.
