From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs will be releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Green Bay Packers Team Preview
While nothing in football is a sure thing, Aaron Rodgers has made the Green Bay Packers’ offense about as consistently great as any offense in the league. Since taking over for Brett Favre in 2008, Rodgers oversaw a unit that never ranked lower than 10th in points per game over a seven-year stretch, including two seasons in which the Packers led the league in scoring.
Then 2015 happened.
Averaging 23 points per game, the Green Bay Packers finished 15th in scoring, as they had an inconsistent running game and consistently poor pass protection. The fact that a 10-6 season (that included a playoff win) was viewed as a disappointment speaks to how high the expectations are year in and year out for a Rodgers-led team. These high expectations are still there for 2016.
As one of just five teams with a 2016 line of 10.5 wins, the Packers are expected by Vegas
to regain their status as one of the NFL’s best teams. Additionally, Rodgers is the favorite to win the NFL MVP award according to most sports books, and this is due partially to the return of No. 1 wide receiver Jordy Nelson, who missed 2015 with a torn ACL. The Packers may be expected to regain their NFC North Division title, but how do we expect their players’ fantasy seasons to go?
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers
Hail Marys aside, 2015 was a year to forget for Rodgers. Whether his struggles were due more to the absence of Nelson or the 46 sacks he endured — the third-highest total of Rodgers’ career — he struggled for most of 2015. Career lows in both completion percentage (60.7 percent) and adjusted yards/attempt (7.1) highlighted these struggles.
Despite these subpar numbers, 2015 still revealed how great Rodgers can be. The problem is that this greatness was jammed mostly into the Packers’ 6-0 start. A blistering 15-2 TD/INT pace turned into a 16-6 TD/INT finish over the Packers’ final 10 games. Although the injuries that Rodgers reportedly dealt with would explain a lot, in hindsight we can also see just how tough of a schedule Rodgers had to face. With five games against defenses ranked sixth or higher in average fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, Rodgers didn’t have an easy go of it. But looking past this 16-game stretch of average football, we can see why Rodgers is still the odds-on favorite to take home the 2016 NFL MVP.
Even if we include Rodgers’ 2015 campaign, he’s the second-best fantasy quarterback ever. Only Cam Newton has averaged more fantasy points per game among quarterbacks with at least 16 career starts. Before 2015, Rodgers’ end-of-season positional rank in fantasy points per game was consistently unbelievable: 2nd in 2014, 5th in 2013, 2nd in 2012, 1st in 2011, 2nd in 2010, 1st in 2009, and 2nd in 2008 in his first season as a starter. Now where specifically in 2016 could Rodgers regain his form as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks ever?
All defensive rankings are in terms of average fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks in 2015. While these rankings will of course change in the new NFL season, Rodgers does appear to have a much easier slate in 2016. Based on this schedule and the return of Nelson, expect Rodgers to get back to being one of the best fantasy quarterbacks of all time sooner rather than later.
Brett Hundley
A second-year quarterback out of UCLA, Hundley was elite at the 2015 combine, finishing as a top performer in literally every event. In addition to entering the NFL as an exceptional athlete, Hundley was also a rare prospect in that he developed an understanding of a complex offense under former Atlanta Falcons head coach Jim Mora. Of course, the problem with Hundley is that his next NFL pass will be his first. He’s unlikely to live up to former backup Matt Flynn’s performances in lieu of Rodgers, but Hundley is a great runner — he rushed for 30 touchdowns in three collegiate seasons — and he has a strong arm. He has more upside than the usual backup quarterback.
Running Back
Eddie Lacy
The yearly offseason speculation of Eddie Lacy’s weight has made its presence felt once again, and it doesn’t help Lacy’s case that as he has seemingly becomes larger each season his production and usage have decreased every year since his rookie campaign. Lacy has missed just two games in his career, yet he recorded 97 fewer rush attempts in 2015 than in 2013, and after receiving 44 and 55 targets in 2013 and 2014 Lacy saw only 28 last year.
Lacy was disappointing in 2015, especially in the first half as our Trends tool shows:
A brutal Plus/Minus of -7.74 on DraftKings in the Packers’ first eight games of 2015 shows the extent to which Lacy was underperforming expectations. In the second half of the season — after his salary had dropped — Lacy was able to perform reasonably well with a +3.07 Plus/Minus, but his early-season performance ‘accomplished’ two items: 1) It doomed his entire campaign to a -2.70 Plus/Minus on 33.3 percent Consistency, and 2) it highlighted the extent to which Lacy perhaps should not be expected to be a workhorse.
If Lacy is able to regain a feature role this season — if he is actually fed the ball — then he could perhaps return to his former self. When he has been given enough opportunities, he has displayed a knack for producing at an efficient level. Lacy had 15-plus carries five times in 2015. In those games, he posted five of his seven best yards/carry averages on the season. Maybe as Lacy gets the ball more, he gets better. Of course, it’s also possible that in those games Lacy was getting the ball more because he was running well, which might have less to do with him and more to do with the defenses he was facing. Either way, Lacy’s yards/carry average was under 3.5 in eight of his 15 regular season games. That is unacceptable and might prevent him from getting workhorse carries in 2016, especially since James Starks proved himself to be a more-than-competent committee back last year.
When Lacy is at his best, he’s one of the better running backs in the entire NFL. In 2014 Lacy averaged 2.82 yards after contact, good for third in the league. He will get a chance to earn the Packers’ primary running back job in 2016, but unfortunately for Lacy’s fantasy outlook that job is likely to be less important than it was in 2013 and 2014.
James Starks
Lacy was the Packers starting running back in 2015, but on a per-snap basis Starks actually saw more game action. Overall Lacy was No. 1 in total touches with 207, but Starks was close behind with 191. This gap in touches has decreased in each of the past two seasons, and there isn’t any reason to believe that the Packers will revert to a single-back system this year. While it’s unfortunate that the presence of Starks limits Lacy’s upside, the truth is that Starks has earned his touches. Since Lacy joined the league in 2013, Starks has been the more efficient runner, averaging 4.43 yards/carry on 322 carries while Lacy has averaged 4.29 yards/carry across his career.
Starks took his performance to another level at home in 2015, posting a very high Plus/Minus of +7.55 on DraftKings:
Overall Starks finished 2015 with a Plus/Minus of +3.19, in large part thanks to this excellence at home. His hot first half (+4.78 in the first eight games) also made it really easy for the Packers to give him consistent work throughout the campaign.
In the Packers’ playoff games against Washington and Arizona, Lacy received only one more touch than Starks. Assuming that the Packers’ offense returns to its top-10 scoring ways, both Starks and Lacy will be potential weekly fantasy options. And if one of the runners emerges as the clear lead back, he will instantly be a top-10 fantasy option. Of course, the last three years tell us that this scenario isn’t likely.
At worst, Starks will be a reliable second running back for the Packers and salary-based replacement-level DFS asset in 2016. At best, he’s likely to serve as the team’s receiving back and a regularly undervalued weekly DFS option. Starks doesn’t have Lacy’s sheer upside — his highest touchdown total in a season is four, compared to 13 for Lacy — but he does have the capacity to earn enough snaps both to make himself an above-average fantasy runner and to cap Lacy’s upside.
John Crockett
With just nine carries as a rookie in 2015, Crockett is an unproven fantasy option and will only be a factor if either Starks or Lacy is injured. However, the North Dakota State product was a top combine performer in both the vertical and broad jump, proving to be more explosive than his 4.62-second 40-yard dash indicates. With solid hands out of the backfield, Crockett has the potential to be a three-down back, which he was in college. In 2014, he carried his school (and quarterback Carson Wentz) to a national championship in the Football Championship Subdivision, rushing 368 times for 1,994 yards and 21 touchdowns in 16 games, adding 30 receptions for 397 yards and an additional score.
Wide Receiver
Jordy Nelson
White Lightning is back. After missing all of 2015 with a right-knee ACL tear, the 31-year-old Nelson returns in 2016 . . . most likely. Having suffered a ‘hiccup’ in his left knee, Nelson is a bit of a mystery at the moment. If Nelson does return this season (he’s expected to), and if he’s close to his former self, then opponents will need to deal with Nelson’s unique blend of big-play ability and red-zone dominance.
Nelson’s career 15.27 yards/reception average is good for 21st in the NFL among all receivers to record at least 100 receptions since Nelson’s 2008 rookie season. What makes Nelson unique is that he has combined this big-play ability with consistent touchdowns, as Nelson is tied for ninth in the NFL with 49 touchdown receptions since 2008. As a point of comparison: Nelson has a higher yards/reception average than the deep-threat Mike Wallace and the same number of touchdowns . . . in 35 fewer starts.
In 2014 Nelson was the No. 4 overall wide receiver in DraftKings fantasy points per game, and Nelson is fed the ball in the red zone (sixth-most red-zone targets in 2014 and ninth-most in 2013). If his knees are right going into 2016 then he could propel the Packers offense back to its top-10 glory days.
Randall Cobb
At only 5’10” and 191 lbs., Cobb had 10 red-zone touchdowns in 2014. While this red-zone touchdown total was reduced to five in 2015, Cobb and Antonio Brown are beginning to prove that there are exceptions to the ‘bigger is better’ rule for wide receiver red-zone production. With and without Nelson, Cobb has been fed the ball in the red zone because he’s not your ordinary player.
Cobb functions primarily as the Packers slot receiver, but this is far from the only way he is utilized in the Green Bay offense. With 40 career carries, Cobb occasionally lines up in the backfield in a variety of packages, and with Nelson back in 2015 the versatile Cobb should once again be afforded the luxury of thriving as opposing defenses focus on stopping his teammate. Some wide receivers benefit from being No. 1 options, but Cobb is unique in that he is best-served as the Packers No. 2 receiver. Cobb received four more touches in 2015 as the Packers No. 1 receiver than in 2014 as the No. 2. Usage wasn’t Cobb’s problem last year. It was his role.
Cobb’s very respectable career 13.4 yards/reception average was reduced all the way to 10.5 in 2015. With the drop-heavy Davante Adams and the aging James Jones failing to pull much coverage away from Cobb, he struggled to make big plays despite a heavy workload. As one of the few small slot receivers to have an elite red-zone presence — he ranked in the top-10 in red-zone targets in both 2014 and 2015 — Cobb is ironically more of a WR1 with Nelson than without him.
In 2014, Cobb had a +4.11 Plus/Minus in 16 games. In 2015, he had a -1.48. Look for Cobb to return to the green in 2016.
Davante Adams
After Adams had 117 yards and a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys in the 2014 playoffs, many people were ready to anoint him as the next great Packers receiver. Exquisitely inefficient in 2015, Adams had a chance to break out but instead was forced to see the ancient Jones seize the No. 2 role and not horribly fail at it. Adams probably won’t do any better in 2016. Nelson is expected to return, and Adams will need to hold off postseason sensation Jeff Janis, whose two touchdowns against the Cardinals in the Divisional Round doubled Adams’ 2015 total.
With a career yards/reception average under 11, Adams hasn’t proven himself to be especially worthy of a top-three spot on the Packers’ receiver depth chart. At the same time, as the team’s No. 3 receiver as a rookie he had a positive Plus/Minus and last season his Plus/Minus, though, negative, was still better than Cobb’s. He still has potential as a DFS asset, and Packers general manager Ted Thompson has historically afforded his receivers drafted with top-100 picks plenty of time to develop. (Nelson didn’t break out till his fourth year. Jones, sixth year.) Still, Adams’ inability to be a consistent fantasy factor in 2015 is a major concern.
Ty Montgomery
At 6’0” and 216 lbs., Montgomery has a ceiling that might actually be higher than Cobb’s. A receiver who also played in the Stanford backfield and returned kicks and punts during his college years, Montgomery received action in 2015 as both a receiver (15 catches) and runner (three carries), scoring two touchdowns in his injury-shortened six-game rookie season. With a catch rate of nearly 80 percent, Montgomery is a backup with whom Rodgers has a (small) sample of success. Cobb has missed at least one game in three of his five seasons. If Cobb were to miss time, Montgomery’s demonstrated versatility would be put on display all over the field.
Jeff Janis
Janis had just four career receptions prior to his 145-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Cardinals in the 2015 playoffs, but — regardless of the news coming out of training camp — it may be hard to keep Janis off the field in 2016 after the catch. A third-year receiver out of Saginaw Valley State, Janis is fast, agile, and strong for a receiver but will need to prove that he’s not a one-game wonder. Having demonstrated the ability to make chunk plays down the field against an elite pass defense like the Cardinals (top-10 in average fantasy points against both opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers), Janis could be a perfect match for Rodgers’ ability to keep plays alive. If the stars were to align in 2016, Janis could do more than supplement Nelson. He could be the new Nelson.
Jared Abbrederis
In 2015, Abracadabra turned his 16 targets into nine receptions and 111 yards. Wisconsin’s longtime go-to wide receiver, Abbrederis offers relatively little upside but can play all three receiver positions and return kicks and punts. If he were to see significant playing time in 2016, that would be bad for the Packers, but he could provide DFS value as an accumulator of receptions.
Tight End
Jared Cook
It seems like every year Cook is dubbed as a potential breakout star thanks to his unreal combine numbers, yet Cook’s best season to date consists of just five touchdowns. Enter Rodgers. Cook’s starting quarterbacks have been the lemon parade of Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Locker, Sam Bradford, Austin Davis, and please don’t make me type any more names of bad quarterbacks. This is the reality of life as a Tennessee Titan or St. Louis Ram. #ThanksJeffFisher
But now Cook has Rodgers throwing the ball to him. Since Rodgers entered the league in 2008, the Packers’ tight ends have failed to inspire barring a couple of healthy seasons by Jermichael Finley and a couple of games by Richard Rodgers.
Still, what Finley did on the field in his five years as the Packers starting tight end when he wasn’t injured bodes well for Cook’s prospects as the go-to tight end in Green Bay. From 2009 to 2013, Finley averaged 63 receptions, 805 yards, and nearly 5.5 touchdowns per 16 games. Yes, these would all be career highs for Cook in 2016, but if there were ever a year for him finally to break out it’s this one.
Richard Rodgers
Rodgers the Lesser had himself a productive 2015 season, pulling in 58 catches and eight touchdowns, but he just isn’t a down-the-field target in the NFL. A 4.87-second 40-yard dash is consistent with Rodgers’ brutally low 8.8 yards/catch average in 2015, and Rodgers had just four catches the entire season of 20-plus yards, one of which was the Packers’ first successful Hail Mary of 2015. If we remove that 61-yard play from Rodgers’ total then his yards/reception average drops all the way to 7.9. Even if you don’t remove this fantastic catch from Rodgers’ 2015 output, his 8.8 yards/catch average is the third-worst average among all 126 tight ends to have at least 50 catches in a season since 2008. Rodgers is capable of being a touchdown-dependent fantasy option, but he possesses nothing close to Cook’s upside. (Then again, neither does Cook.)
Two-Minute Warning
The 2016 Packers’ offensive projection is contingent on whether you believe 2015 was an outlier. With Rodgers at quarterback, the Packers have one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. If fully healthy and weighing less than Trent Richardson, his receivers and backs will consistently be capable of producing top fantasy numbers on a weekly basis.
If nothing else, 2015 seemed to offer the blueprint for how to slow down the Packers offense. Pressuring the quarterback and stopping the run is a pretty great recipe for stopping any team, but this was especially true of the Packers last year. Having overachieved in 2015 (the team’s expected win total in terms of points scored versus points allowed was 9.2), the Packers are not a sure bet to return to their prior offensive dominance, but barring any team-crippling injuries their chances of doing well in 2016 look pretty good.
