From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs is releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Detroit Lions Team Preview
Any NFL team can have issues pop up during the season. Last season, the Detroit Lions ran into those issues immediately. They went 1-6 and ranked 20th in total offense through their first seven games. The rest of their resume to that point was comedic: 32nd in rushing yards, 31st in point differential, and first in turnovers.
It’s easier to debate the moment Detroit hit rock bottom than it is to find any highlights in those first few weeks. (The 42-17 loss to the Cardinals in Week 5 is still frontrunner for Worst Moment.) An entire makeover was needed.
The Lions’ offense had gone so far off the rails that waiting for their bye week — only one week away — was no longer an option. Rather than giving Matthew Stafford and the offense a full 14 days to learn an entirely new scheme, the Lions changed play-callers immediately. Joe Lombardi was dismissed in favor of 31-year-old Jim Bob Cooter, who had never called plays at the NFL level. Naturally, Detroit won six of its final eight games.
The Lions hope to build on their second-half performance this year, but a few untimely departures could halt what progress they made.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford
Stafford has gone consecutive seasons without missing a single start, ridding himself of the hypothetical surname “If He Stays Healthy.” Vitriol in the fantasy community has since been directed toward his overall performance, which has been inconsistent and lackluster at times. That held true through Detroit’s first eight games.
Despite a (barely) positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings, Stafford had horribly sub-average Consistency, failing to meet his salary-based expectations in 62.5 percent of his games. So he had one big game, two acceptable games, and then five games in which he broke your heart. He was so Staffordian. (Note: Cooter actually took over in Week 8, but we can’t really evaluate him in Week 8 because he had limited time to implement his new offense.)
Come to find out, that one change at the offensive coordinator position was apparently all Stafford needed. Once Detroit returned from the bye in Week 9, Stafford exceeded salary-based expectations in every start over his next eight games.
His quarterback rating in the second half of the season (110.1) was 26 points higher than in the first half. He also threw 19 touchdowns and two interceptions in that time, a significant improvement from the 13-11 he tossed in his first eight contests.
But Cooter can’t take all the credit. Cooter definitely installed a scheme that catered to Stafford’s strengths, but the Lions quarterback also benefited from an easier schedule in the second half. Four of his first eight opponents finished 2015 with top-five passing defenses according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Six finished in the top 12. Over his final eight games, Stafford faced New Orleans (32nd in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks), Philadelphia (27th), San Francisco (16th), Chicago (29th), and Green Bay twice (18th).
With Cooter calling the shots, Stafford paced for 4,352 yards and 38 touchdowns over a 16-game span. Those are lofty expectations for someone who has thrown for more than 30 touchdowns only twice in his career. And while there will be opportunities to stack the Lions’ offense — particularly in Week 2 against Tennessee, as their performance against Vontae Davis and the Colts’ defense in Week 1 will likely be a letdown — regression, especially without the retired Calvin Johnson, is imminent.
Wide Receivers
Golden Tate
Some might see Tate’s career-low 9.0 yards per reception last year as his outlook for 2016. Evan Silva’s take tends to make more sense: It was simply “a byproduct of Cooter making Detroit’s offense quicker hitting to cover up protection leaks.” If you’re curious as to why the Lions used two of their first three draft picks on offense linemen this season, look no further. Laken Tomlinson, their 2014 first-round pick, was extremely slow in his development. Right tackle LaAdrian Waddle was eventually cut, and left tackle Riley Reiff was about average — not exactly the review you’re looking to give your blindside lineman.
Tate’s performance in 2014 told a story that’s more relevant to his upcoming campaign. It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison since Detroit has since changed coordinators, but it’s no coincidence that Tate averaged 13.3 targets and 25.63 DraftKings points in the three games that Johnson missed that year:
Fast forward to 2015 when Johnson started in all 16 games. Tate regressed — but once Cooter was promoted there was a noticeable difference in Tate’s performance. Here are his first half/second half splits for the season:
If Detroit’s pass protection fails to improve or forces Tate to run routes closer to the line of scrimmage, that shouldn’t be a huge detriment. He has a good chance of being an undervalued cash-game play early in the season and a 100-reception receiver by the end of it.
Marvin Jones
Megatron was targeted 149 times last season, all of which are now unaccounted for since he retired in March. That isn’t the only reason Detroit made Jones the highest paid wideout of this offseason’s free agency class (five years, $40 million), but it certainly helped. Jones is now guaranteed a substantial role in the offseason. If he’s healthy, he should see no fewer than 100 targets this season at the bare minimum.
Jones reportedly signed with Detroit because he was looking to “maximize his opportunity.” Although being in an offense sans A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert in theory should give him more opportunity to serve as the lead receiver, it’s far from guaranteed that Jones will emerge as Detroit’s top target, despite training camp reports to the contrary. Fortunately for him, his strengths and the Lions’ needs harmonize with one another.
In 2013, Jones averaged one touchdown for every eight targets, and for his career he has turned targets into scores at a high rate of 6.98 percent. For comparison, Green has a 6.37 percent touchdown rate. More importantly, nine of Jones’ 10 scores in 2013 came in the red zone, where he has made a living throughout his career. He has scored on 40 percent (12-for-32) of his red zone targets since entering the league. For comparison, Johnson scored on 29.6 percent (48-for-162) of his career red zone targets. If Jones can continue that kind of production, Detroit would have a much easier time transitioning from Johnson.
It wouldn’t affect Jones too much if Detroit’s offense was forced to scheme quick-hitting patterns again, either. He is good at accumulating yards after the catch. Last year, 37 percent of his total receiving yards were recorded once he caught the ball. last year, Megatron recorded only 25 percent of his yards after the catch.
If Davis does shadow Tate in Week 1, Jones would benefit immensely, as he would likely face Darius Butler, who finished 2015 as one of only three cornerbacks to allow at least 10 adjusted yards per target.
Anquan Boldin
Boldin was an acquisition that made all the sense in the world since Detroit lacked depth at his position. He ran 56 percent of his routes from the slot last season, slightly more than Tate (54.5 percent). If this signing solidifies the latter as an outside receiver, it should be noted that Tate averaged 14 yards per catch in that role during his final season with Seattle.
As a standalone option, Boldin can still be useful in the right matchup. He has seen fewer than 100 targets only once since 2003 and, prior to last year, had finished as a top-30 fantasy wideout in eight of the past 10 seasons. Boldin hasn’t missed more than two games in any season since 2008, so he’s a dependable player in terms of being on the field, but Boldin turns 36 in October and his numbers have been trending down each season since 2013. He might be a good soldier for Detroit this season, but he probably won’t be good.
T.J. Jones
Detroit’s acquisition of Boldin hit T.J. Jones‘ value the hardest. He went from being a shoe-in as Detroit’s No. 3 receiver to competing with Jeremy Kerley for the No. 4 spot. Jones won’t be an afterthought by any means (he’s currently listed as a kick returner and backup punt returner), but he won’t have any use in DFS until a spot ahead of him becomes vacant.
Jeremy Kerley
Signing Boldin affected T.J. Jones’ outlook, but at least he’s still getting reps in camp as an outside receiver. Whatever success Kerley has had in the NFL has come from the slot, where Boldin will spend the most time.
In 2012-2014, Kerley averaged 5.5 targets per game with the Jets. It’s no coincidence he ran an average of 75.5 percent of his routes from the slot in that time. But it ended last season when Eric Decker wound up running 68.1 percent of his routes from the slot. Kerley was always going to be fighting for snaps, but the acquisition of Boldin basically eliminates any chances he has of making an impact.
Tight Ends
Eric Ebron
Once Ebron went down in practice a few weeks ago, Twitter ultimately decided that he tore his ACL before the team officially released any news. It now appears he won’t miss significant time, and it’s easy to see why Detroit wants to feature him more in 2016. Not only did he efficiently record five touchdowns on eight targets inside the 20-yard line last season, but Ebron in his second year dramatically improved in numerous categories: Average targets, yards per catch, and average Plus/Minus, to name a few. He’s still one of the league’s worst blocking tight ends, but that might not matter on a team expected to pass often.
Ebron really made his presence felt in games that Brandon Pettigrew missed. In seven contests that Pettigrew started ahead of Ebron, the latter averaged 5.86 DraftKings points and a +1.11 Plus/Minus. In seven starts without Pettigrew, Ebron averaged 11.9 DraftKings points and a much improved +6.47 Plus/Minus. Pettigrew could potentially start the year on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, which would leave Ebron as a tremendous option in the first six games of 2016.
For him, the only question is whether the tight end-ish Boldin will steal targets that otherwise would’ve gone to him — especially in the red zone.
Brandon Pettigrew
Oft-injured, Pettigrew is a big question mark even when he’s healthy. Long gone are the days when he was targeted 100 times per season three years in a row (2010-2012). Last year, he had not one reception per game played. It’s possible that the team could cut him in order to save paying $5.3 million dollars towards its cap next year, but he will probably be a Lion this year: The team needs a blocking tight end, and that’s what Pettigrew does best.
Andrew Quarless
In 2013-2014, Quarless was targeted a combined 99 times — most of those targets were from Aaron Rodgers — and he turned those opportunities into 635 yards and five touchdowns. That’s not bad, but last year he was targeted once per game, and he played in only five games. He’s suspended for the first two games of the season. He’s decent veteran depth who will stay buried if all goes well.
Running Backs
Ameer Abdullah
Last year no rookie back was put in a worse position to start his career than Abdullah. As if competing for touches with the crumbling Joique Bell wasn’t sad enough, the emergence of Theo Riddick forced Detroit’s hand in creating a three-headed backfield — and somehow none of the guys in that trio of tragedy emerged as an efficient rusher. Abdullah’s stock inevitably bottomed out in Week 12 when he had an almost-minimum salary across sites despite being Detroit’s ‘lead’ back. It’s probably not a coincidence that he recorded an 80 percent Consistency at DraftKings from that point forward, a five-game stretch that was highlighted by his Week 15 performance against the Saints. He averaged 5.3 yards per touch in that span.
Running behind Detroit’s offensive line was hard. Worse was the amount of time Abdullah watched from the sidelines as Bell was used in goal-line personnel. After all, Bell led Detroit’s backfield with six carries inside the five-yard line last season. Abdullah ran the ball in that territory twice. With Bell now a free agent (and/or forcibly retired), Abdullah has a chance to get the bulk of the goal-line work. It’s not a certainty, though, that he doesn’t get vultured by Zach Zenner or (gulp) maybe even Theo Riddick.
Theo Riddick
Riddick may have recorded the quietest 80-catch season in league history. Ultimately, his performance in 2015 can be chalked up to being in the perfect place at the perfect time. For an offense that needed to get the ball out quickly, Riddick — a 5’10″ and 201 lb. change-of-pace savant who ran mostly underneath routes — was a godsend.
The Lions are reportedly interested in giving Riddick more carries, but why they would is anybody’s guess. He has averaged 2.9 yards per carry in three seasons with Detroit and has only 72 rush attempts compared to 157 targets. Basically, he’s a slot-caliber receiver who lines up in the backfield. If “more carries” is coach-speak for “giving him more snaps in general, and some of those will be carries,” that’s one thing. If it means “giving him the same number of carries and making more of those rushing attempts,” that’s something else entirely.
Riddick received the largest share of the Lions’ backfield snaps (34.4 percent) in 2015, but that likely won’t be the case if they take a modern, between-the-tackles approach on the ground this year. Still, he should see regular snaps and action as a receiver. On platforms that have points-per-reception scoring, he should be valuable even if volatile asset.
Zach Zenner
Zenner caught the eyes of many people when he led all players in rushing last preseason. Since he was a big and reasonably athletic rookie who was an all-American small-school superstar, there was some hope that he would be able to contribute right away. It took only 46 snaps before rib fractures and a collapsed lung ended his season in Week 6.
Zenner isn’t nearly as athletic as Abdullah, but he’s much bigger, which could potentially lead to his replacing Bell as the goal-line back this year. There’s also the chance that he’s simply the third back in Detroit’s offense and touches the ball only enough to impede the production of the two guys ahead of him. In Week 1 of the 2016 preseason, ZZ Top looked alright.
Dwayne Washington
Washington’s breakout in the preseason inevitably made Stevan Ridley expendable. A seventh-round rookie out of (eerily enough) Washington, the young back showed promise in college but also suffered from leg injuries. He’s no David Johnson, but Washington is a 6’2” and 226 lb. back with great athleticism for his size.
He led the Huskies in rushing in 2014 and then in 2015, with the emergence of true freshman stud running back Myles Gaskin, Washington rounded out his game and was one of the team’s leading receivers in limited action before his injuries derailed his campaign. In eight injury-impacted games, he still managed to accumulated 597 yards and seven touchdowns on 47 carries and 25 receptions.
Even though Washington has done well in training camp, returning a kick 96 yards for a touchdown in the first week of the preseason, he will likely be nothing more than a body on special teams during the season. If, though, he manages to see some snaps, he could surprise. His size, athleticism, and receiving ability gives him three-down upside.
Two-Minute Warning
The Lions passed on a league-high 65.6 percent of their offensive plays. It’s likely that they will pass a little less this year, and Stafford will be quarterbacking without Megatron for the first time in his career, so there’s no guarantee at all that he will play in 2016 like the Stafford who benefited from a cush schedule and Cooter’s scheme in the second half of 2015.
Vegas has Detroit listed with seven wins, a win total that assumes its second half performance was no fluke. That’s not a safe assumption by any stretch of the imagination. Fortunately, the Lions have the makeup to be DFS studs — cheap talent with high upside and a defense that will put its offense in high-scoring affairs. That doesn’t sound like a team that can compete in the NFC North, but it’s one that’s more than ready to take down a few GPPs in 2016.
