From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs will be releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Cleveland Browns Team Preview
Except for a few recognizable names, forget everything that you learned about the Cleveland Browns last year. There’s now a new starting quarterback, an unfamiliar cast of receivers, one-half of Moneyball, and a brand-new head coach who has promised improved blocking and a commitment to running the ball. And he ain’t lyin’: the last four teams for which Hue Jackson called plays either as an offensive coordinator or head coach finished seventh, fifth, seventh, and fourth in rushing attempts.
The team photo might look different, but owner Jimmy Haslam didn’t bring on Jackson and Paul DePodesta, Cleveland’s new Chief Strategy Officer, expecting a Super Bowl in their first year. 2016 will undoubtedly have its fair share of struggles, but Browns fans can look forward to the beginning of a new era, DFS players can look forward to several soft defenses on their schedule, and Cleveland’s front office can look forward to drafting a franchise quarterback with the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft (probably).
Running Backs
Duke Johnson
As a rookie, Johnson was fourth among running backs last season with 61 receptions, behind Theo Riddick (80), Danny Woodhead (80), and Devonta Freeman (73). In fact, Johnson’s debut was so good that there’s legitimate reason to be skeptical about whether he can match last year’s totals. Fortunately, Cleveland’s new head coach may have already tipped his hand as to how he’ll use Duke.
In somewhat of an obvious approach, Jackson as Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator favored his lighter, pass-catching back whenever the Bengals trailed last year. In that situation, Giovani Bernard finished with 44 total opportunities (targets and carries), and Jeremy Hill, the more traditional back between the two, finished with 36 opportunities. When the Bengals led by seven points or more, Hill recorded 95 opportunities to Bernard’s 80. The Browns have overhauled their offense, but they’re still going to be playing from behind a lot. Get used to seeing Johnson’s name in cash game lineups, as his receiving ability and the Browns’ likely game flow should afford him a high floor each week.
Isaiah Crowell
Former head coach Mike Pettine bore the brunt of the blame for what went wrong in Cleveland the last couple of seasons. He did have numerous flaws, but something he did right was give one back the clear majority of the carries in the red zone. Crowell finished the year with 19 more red-zone carries than Johnson (29-10) and four more rushes inside the five-yard line (6-2). Although the distribution could change under Jackson this season, note that Hill — again, the bigger back between the two — received 10 more carries than Bernard inside the five-yard line last year (13-3).
At DraftKings, the pick to click is still Johnson, since he’ll receive one point per reception (PPR) there, whereas FanDuel scores only 0.5 PPR. Last year, despite receiving fewer overall opportunities and scoring fewer touchdowns, Duke averaged 10.27 DraftKings points per game, 1.47 more than Crowell. At FanDuel, however, they were comparable as producers.
In 2016, we will probably see more of what we saw in 2015. Johnson will likely see more targets and accumulate more yards, and Crowell will have more carries and touchdowns.
Terrell Watson
Expect Watson to be a thorn in Crowell’s side throughout the year, especially in goal-line situations. Watson isn’t as recognizable as the two backs ahead of him, but that’s because last year he was an undrafted rookie out of Division II’s Azusa Pacific, where he broke many of Christian Okoye’s team records. As a senior in 2014, he capped off a fantastic career with 2,153 yards and 29 touchdowns rushing on 359 carries in 11 games.
The Bengals (and Jackson) showed interest in Watson as early as his pro day last year, and after spending all of 2015 on Cincy’s practice squad he was signed by the Browns in the offseason after Jackson joined the team. The coach clearly likes what he sees in Watson, which is understandable, given his collegiate production and size (6’1” and 236 lbs.). If Crowell struggles or suffers an injury, Watson is in a prime position to become an immediate DFS asset as the early-down grinder. His Hill impersonation could be very underrated.
Quarterbacks
Robert Griffin III
This is a friendly reminder that Griffin was a disaster the last time we saw him play. That was back in 2014, when he threw only four touchdowns in seven starts. The good news is that Jackson is a bit of a maniac when it comes to offensive personnel. If he didn’t mind running read-option with Andy Dalton last season (and he didn’t), just imagine what he’ll do with RG3. Unfortunately, young (and suspended) receivers are going to make it tough for Griffin to develop any consistency.
Although his QBR in 2014 reached a career-low 34.29, Griffin’s 7.9 yards per attempt would’ve been tied for the fifth-best mark of the season — if he had thrown enough passes to qualify for consideration. So . . . that’s kind of positive? He’s far removed from his rookie campaign, but once first-year receiver Corey Coleman gets up to speed and prodigal son Josh Gordon returns from his suspension then RG3 might be able to provide some unexpected value. Maybe those three witches could brew some Baylor magic in that cauldron.
Josh McCown
Contrary to belief, Cleveland’s quarterback competition wasn’t a competition at all. RG3 has been named the starter, despite McCown’s honorable job as a starter between Weeks 3 and 8 last season.
If the time ever comes when he’s needed, how the receiving options are used probably shouldn’t change much. McCown targeted Gary Barnidge on 21.9 percent of his passing attempts last season, connecting with him on 50 percent (six of 12) of his total touchdowns thrown. Jackson kept Cincinnati from drowning with A.J. McCarron under center. He’ll have no issues working his magic with McCown if he needs to do so.
Cody Kessler
Efficiency is Kessler’s key attribute and it might ultimately allow him to succeed in the terrifying instance that he’s needed to start some games this season. He doesn’t stand out physically, and he didn’t record elite numbers in his last two seasons at the University of Southern California, but the third-round rookie entered the draft with a school-record 67.5 career completion percentage and 88 touchdowns to only 19 interceptions in his three years as a starter. As he did in college, Kessler will need to keep his turnovers to a minimum in the NFL if he doesn’t want Cleveland to draft his replacement next year. That Jackson thought enough of him to draft him with a top-100 pick is in his favor.
Wide Receivers
Corey Coleman
Last season, Coleman turned an unbelievable 20 of his 74 receptions into touchdowns for Baylor, winning the Biletnikoff Award with one of the greatest collegiate campaigns of all time. Running a 4.37-second 40-yard dash at his pro day in March, Coleman has elite athleticism to match his gaudy collegiate production and should immediately produce in a manner commensurate with the 15th overall pick that the Browns used to selected him in the draft.
Of course, Coleman will still have a learning curve. He’s a product of Art Briles’ spread offense and will need to familiarize himself with the NFL route tree. He might especially struggle during the first four games of the season as Josh Gordon serves his suspension, but after Gordon returns Coleman should be able to learn his craft with less defensive attention focused on him. It’s anybody’s guess as to how targets will be split between Coleman and Gordon, but as the season goes on Coleman should increasingly emerge as a playmaker for the Browns and DFS players.
Josh Gordon
After much deliberation from the league offices, Gordon appears set to return in Week 5. He’ll have to avoid failing a drug test until then, but at least everyone now knows where Gordon stands. If Gordon has problems in the interim and isn’t reinstated in Week 5, that will be disappointing for the Browns. For us, it will basically be normal. If he returns, it’s very possible that his ownership and the expectations for him will be high. He already has the 18th-highest positional salary on DraftKings for the Week 1 main slate . . . and he’s not expected to play.
Gordon hasn’t played since December of 2014, and he has already run into injuries in training camp. He led the league in receiving in 2013, but that was when Cleveland led the NFL in attempts and his 2014 campaign was disheartening, as he was 44th among wide receivers with an average of only 11.46 DraftKings points across his five games played. In an ideal world, he will return and either be a top-tier receiver again or facilitate Coleman’s breakout by alleviating pressure from opposing defenses. In the real world, Gordon might fail to provide DFS value as he simultaneously hinders Coleman’s development.
Terrelle Pryor
Amazingly, Pryor is currently the Browns’ No. 2 wide receiver. The former quarterback is entering his second season as a receiver with the team, and he apparently seems to have taken to his position. At his pro day five years ago, Pryor ran an unreal 4.38-second 40-yard dash at 6’5” and 232 lbs., so he definitely has the physical tools to dominate at the position.
At the same time, he’s a 27-year-old freak athlete who in his five-year career has turned nine targets into two receptions and 64 scoreless yards. The NFL has a very specific name for that type of athlete: Arena league part-timer. Under normal circumstances, Pryor probably wouldn’t make the Browns’ final 53-man roster. But the Plain Dealer has noted that Jackson has a soft spot for Pryor, designing plays specifically for him. Unfortunately, there are only so many targets to go around in Cleveland. Even if Pryor averages three targets per game in the first month of the season, he’s not likely to be serviceable for DFS, especially after Gordon returns.
Rashard Higgins
There’s no question that Coleman is the most explosive rookie that Cleveland drafted, but Higgins (selected in the fifth round) was also a big producer in college. Hailing from Colorado State — whence real men hail, we’ve been told — Higgins led the nation in 2014 with 1,750 yards and 17 touchdowns receiving as a sophomore. As a junior he played with a new quarterback in a new offense and unsurprisingly regressed, but he still managed to accrue 1,061 yards and eight touchdowns in 12 games before declaring for the draft as an early entrant.
The problem with Higgins is that he’s not an athlete, as evidenced by his 4.64-second 40-yard dash at 196 lbs. at the combine. Despite his smooth route-running skills, his odds are long of being a DFS asset this year. The next time an unathletic late-round receiver who regressed in his final college season makes a substantial NFL impact as a rookie will be the first time it happens. At best, he has early-career Davone Bess upside.
Andrew Hawkins
As the veteran of Cleveland’s receiving corps, Hawkins is expected to open the season as the primary slot receiver. If he stays healthy, he maybe could approach 100-plus targets, as he did in 2014, especially if Gordon is never reinstated, but there are a lot of contingencies upon which the possibility of Hawkins’ potential success is based. Hawkins has already struggled with hamstring issues in training camp, and he missed eight games last season due to multiple concussions. One way or another, the odds are low that Hawkins reaches the 824-yard mark of 2014.
Jordan Payton
Another fifth-round rookie, Payton averaged 1,029.5 yards over his final two seasons at UCLA and converted 12 of 145 receptions into touchdowns. With decent size at 6’1” and 207 lbs., Payton displayed good athleticism at the combine, running a 4.47-second 40-yard dash, suggesting that he might eventually be more than just the possession receiver scouts expect him to be. At the moment, though, he’s just an intriguing depth receiver who wasn’t horrible in college.
Taylor Gabriel
Like a handful of the receivers listed above, Gabriel is competing to be Cleveland’s No. 3 receiver. No matter who wins, the position is unlikely to return any fantasy value. Gabriel is known for running a wind-aided 40-yard dash in under 4.30 seconds at his pro day two years ago, but he has yet to turn that speed into a successful professional career. The fact that Rotoworld hasn’t blurbed about him since January 3 is telling.
Tight Ends
Gary Barnidge
Prior to last year, Barnidge had never recorded more than 13 receptions or two touchdowns in any season. Then, at the ripe age of 30, he somehow finished with career highs in targets (125), catches (79), receiving yards (1,079), and touchdowns (nine). The Bengals targeted their tight end (Tyler Eifert) eight times inside the 10-yard line with Jackson calling plays last year, so Barnidge still has a chance to see premium targets. Still, he’s almost sure to regress.
For one, he will be playing without McCown, who was responsible for six of Barnidge’s nine receiving touchdowns last season. In the seven games that McCown started and didn’t leave with an injury, Barnidge averaged 6.1 receptions, 86.1 yards, and a +14 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. He averaged four catches, 48.8 yards, and a +3.04 Plus/Minus in all other contests. Even if RG3 is good for Cleveland’s passing offense as a whole, he’s unlikely to be as good for Barnidge as McCown was.
Connor Hamlett
Barnidge has been recovering from sports hernia surgery in camp, and so in his place the second-year Hamlett has flourished. At 6’7” and 259 lbs., the Oregon State product has the size to be a contributor in the red zone as both a blocker and a receiver, and he did manage to catch 104 passes in his final three collegiate seasons, but last year he saw no playing time, as he was shuffled around three different practice squads. That he’s the team’s No. 2 tight end shows the extent to which Cleveland’s depth lacks depth. He might not even be a decent Horatio, much less a Prince of Denmark.
Seth DeValve
DeValve is an athletic freak who actually played wide receiver at Princeton last season. Originally expected to go undrafted, DeValve was selected in the fourth round in a move that basically said, “Hi, NFL — we just DePodesta-ed you.” DeValve’s presence is further proof that Jackson intends to be creative with his offensive personnel, since the 6’4” and 240 lb. rookie has the ability to play numerous positions. The coaching staff is much higher on Hamlett right now, but DeValve has the potential to be a really good player for the Browns. He has some second-half Will Tye upside.
Two-Minute Warning
After winning only three games in 2015, the Browns are projected with a league-low 4.5 win total this season. Their schedule isn’t a walk in the park by any means, but the team has enough talent (albeit barely) to dream of winning five games. Unfortunately, that’s the best-case scenario. Realistically, Cleveland will fall behind often and lack an aerial offense capable of keeping up with opponents. It’ll all be worth it once the Browns are grooming Deshaun Watson next season. Till then, rewinding Game 7 of the NBA Finals might be the best way for the entire city of Cleveland to spend Sunday afternoons this fall.
