From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs is releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Carolina Panthers Team Preview
Controversial offseasons are normally left for those teams that don’t go 15-1 and make the Super Bowl. That clearly wasn’t the case for the Panthers. Josh Norman, one of the game’s best defensive backs, had his franchise tag rescinded prior to April’s NFL draft. While Carolina attempted to replace him by drafting three cornerbacks, Norman left for Washington (and $75 million dollars) in free agency. Carolina’s defense led the league with 24 interceptions last season but will be hard-pressed to mimic that kind of production without Norman as well as Charles Tillman and Roman Harper, the first of whom retired this offseason and the second of whom returned to New Orleans presumably to end his career. Last year, that trio combined for six interceptions and 30 pass deflections.
While that’s a void the Panthers will need to fill, their loss could be a DFS player’s gain. Last season the Panthers averaged the ninth-fastest offensive pace in the first half of games. That pace plummeted to 29th overall in the second half, likely because they led after halftime in 12 of 16 games and were playing slower in order to protect their leads, which would also explain why they finished with the highest second-half time of possession. If the loss of key defensive players leads to closer contests, Carolina’s offense, which already ranked eighth in offensive plays per game in 2015, could average even more plays this season.
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton
The days of preserving Newton are long gone. After two seasons as the offensive coordinator, Mike Shula finally embraced Newton’s athleticism en route to seeing his quarterback finish with MVP honors and career highs in rushing attempts (132) and passing touchdowns (35). Newton had a hand in 83.3 percent of Carolina’s offensive touchdowns and scored 30 DraftKings points on six separate occasions.
As is almost always the case when a player goes above and beyond his career averages, there are variables from Newton’s MVP campaign that likely won’t carry over to 2016. The one that stands out the most is his 7.1 percent touchdown rate through the air, which is 2.0 percentage points higher than his previous career high. He also scored on 80 percent of his carries inside the five-yard line. His previous high when attempting double-digit rushes in that area was 57.1 percent.
Newton averaged a +3.05 Plus/Minus at FanDuel, but his salary, which never fell below $9,000 after Week 13, eventually made it tough to build a confident lineup around him. At DraftKings, however, he averaged a +7.07 Plus/Minus, as quarterback salaries were depressed. If DraftKings once again keeps salaries low at the position, Newton will continue to be a cash-game option at DraftKings each and every week.
Derek Anderson
As far as backup quarterbacks go, Anderson is one of the best. He has started only two games in five seasons with Carolina, but the Panthers know that he’s more than capable if he’s ever needed. In 2014, the most recent season in which he received a reasonable amount of playing time, he threw for 701 yards and five touchdowns, completing 67 percent of his passes. Carolina grip on the NFC South title would be weakened if Anderson ever needed to start for an extended period, but he at least still has the ability to keep receivers relevant for fantasy.
Running Backs
Jonathan Stewart
As the workhorse for a team that led the NFL in rushing attempts, Stewart presumably should have finished among the league’s most productive backs just by sheer volume. On the contrary: Stewart averaged the second-most carries per game but finished only 20th in DraftKings points per game. A lot of that had to do with his inability to score. Stewart received the second-most red zone carries among running backs but finished the year with as many touchdowns (six) as Jeremy Langford, Ryan Mathews, and Spencer Ware — three backs who averaged half as many carries.
I know what you’re thinking. That many carries and only six touchdowns rushing? Regression! But Stewart hasn’t scored more than six rushing touchdowns since 2009, and the reason for that is apparent. While the Panthers tend to lean on Stewart to get to the goal line, they use all three of their running threats — Newton, Stewart, and Mike Tolbert, someone Rotoworld once referred to as “The Tub of Goo” — in goal-to-go situations. Stewart finished with 34.6 percent of Carolina’s carries inside the five-yard line last season, 34th among backs. Newton, on the other hand, recorded 38.5 percent, while Tolbert finished with 23.1 percent. Expect a similar timeshare in 2016.
Stewart was also an afterthought in Carolina’s passing game. His 16 total catches last season were 64th among running backs and inevitably every week limited the likelihood of his reaching his Upside. When Stewart was implied to score double-digit DraftKings points, he averaged a +0.14 Plus/Minus, barely meeting expectations. When he was implied to score single-digits, he crushed.
Carolina didn’t add anyone notable to the backfield this offseason. If Stewart plays at least 13 games for the third consecutive year, then 220-plus touches are a safe bet. In order for him to provide outsized value on a regular basis, his salary will need to stay low or his touchdown total will need to increase unexpectedly, but Stewart’s consistent and heavy volume should at least make him a solid cash-game option in softer matchups.
Cameron Artis-Payne
Selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft, Artis-Payne was taken to shore up Carolina’s backfield depth. Though stocky and just average as an athlete, ‘CAP’ mustered over 1,600 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns in his final season at Auburn. As a productive college player drafted out of the South Eastern Conference, CAP entered his rookie season looking like a guy who could be very productive if (and when) Stewart missed some games.
When Stewart was sidelined in Weeks 15-17, Artis-Payne did lead the Panthers backfield in carries each game — but he was far from a workhorse. Rather, he split significant carries with Fozzy Whittaker and ‘The Tub of Goo,’ who combined for 24 carries, which might not seem like a lot but is proportionally substantial compared to the 33 carries that CAP got. (And of course Newton was getting his usual allotment of carries as well.) When Stewart is out, the Panthers prefer to use a committee, and that probably won’t change in 2016.
Fozzy Whitaker
Whitaker logged 88 more snaps than Artis-Payne (111-23) until the final three weeks of 2015, finding work primarily as a smaller, change-of-pace and third-down complement to Carolina’s bigger backs. He also saw 217 snaps last year as a core special teams player. He’s likely to make the team again this year because of his versatility, but he has been out of college for four years and not once has he gotten double-digit carries in a game. Fozzy is unlikely to make a fantasy impact in 2016 even if he is presented with something that looks like opportunity.
Mike Tolbert
As Carolina’s primary fullback, Tolbert makes an impact on most plays without actually touching the ball. He notably rushed for 59 yards on 10 carries as the No. 2 back in Week 17 last year, but otherwise he tends to be used primarily in short-yardage situations.
Although Tolbert hasn’t been a huge vulture on the goal-line over the past couple of years — scoring only four touchdowns across that time — he has the capability to be a much greater nuisance than he is. From 2010 to 2013, he averaged 114.50 carries and 33.25 receptions for 717.50 yards and 8.75 touchdowns per season.
If Stewart suffers an injury and the Panthers decide to use Tolbert as much more of a workhorse on the goal-line and in short-yardage situations, he could effectively become the team’s No. 1 DFS back.
Wide Receivers
Kelvin Benjamin
Benjamin recorded 1,008 receiving yards and led the Panthers with nine receiving touchdowns as a rookie in 2014. His sophomore campaign ended before it even began, as Benjamin suffered a torn ACL in the preseason. Now healthy, Benjamin is likely top open Week 1 as Carolina’s No. 1 receiver — but that doesn’t mean that he’ll immediately be worth rostering.
While his rookie season was impressive, Benjamin’s results don’t tell the whole story. Anderson was responsible for two of the five games that Benjamin finished with 90-plus receiving yards. He also had 11 drops and the third-lowest catch rate (50.3 percent) among the 68 receivers to have at least 50 receptions. And this year he’ll be fighting Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn, Jr., for targets, as neither was on the team in 2014.
Benjamin’s salary peaked at $7,900 on FanDuel and $6,600 on DraftKings in 2014. Unless his salary decreases in 2016, he will be too risky to roster as a regular cash-game option.
Devin Funchess
A 6’4” and 232 lb. physical specimen with 33.5″ arms, Funchess was selected early in the second round of last year’s draft. Although he played tight end as a junior in his final season at Michigan, the Panthers drafted him as a wide receiver and planned to use him alongside Benjamin. When Benjamin was lost before the season, there was the hope that Funchess would be able do in 2015 what Benjamin had done in 2014. That didn’t happen.
Funchess showed his youth early in the season, as he was outsnapped by Ginn, Corey Brown, and even second tight end Ed Dickson. And he was horribly inefficient, catching only seven of 21 targets in Carolina’s first seven games. For whatever reason, that’s when his struggles ended. Funchess averaged 10.48 DraftKings points and a +3.46 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over the next nine games.
If Benjamin struggles to start 2016, Funchess will have the massive opportunity to emerge as Newton’s No. 1 receiver. As a rookie he actually had more yards and touchdowns per target than Benjamin and was only 21 whereas Funchess was 24. Even if Benjamin plays well, it’s still possible that Funchess could develop into a very strong No. 2 who syphons targets away from Benjamin.
Ted Ginn, Jr.
It’s not a coincidence that Ginn’s most productive seasons have come with Newton and the Panthers. As a deep-ball specialist who thrives by using his 4.38-second 40-yard speed to take the top off of defenses, Ginn has recorded 15 of his 21 career touchdowns and averaged 16.1 yards per catch in two seasons with Carolina. The return of Benjamin and emergence of Funchess will negatively impact his touchdown total, but his role is safe.
In the Panthers first 2016 preseason game, Ginn logged as many snaps as Benjamin in Carolina’s base offense. As long as Ginn sees regular snaps, he has the potential to be a very volatile though valuable tournament play, even if he doesn’t see many targets per game. In two of his multiple-touchdown games last season, he had only three targets. Of course, he also scored three or fewer DraftKings points in four games. He’s for guaranteed prize pools only.
Corey (Philly) Brown
Brown has progressively gotten better in two seasons with the Panthers, but his volume and role are concerning. Despite playing in 14 games last season and leading Carolina’s receiving corps in snaps, Brown never received more than six targets in any given game. Even as a starter, he finished with only 447 yards receiving. If he failed to stand out with that much playing time last year, his outlook for 2016 is awfully bleak with Benjamin returning to steal a lot of snaps.
Brenton Bersin
Other than the fact that 1) he ran with the first-team offense in the Week 1 game of the preseason and 2) he has a name that rhymes with ‘person,’ he’s not that intriguing to us. In his four years since college, he has played in only 24 games. In those games, he has only 22 receptions. He’s tall (6’3, to be exact) — but so are lots of people not in the NFL.
Tight End
Greg Olsen
Olsen was at his best in 2015. He joined Rob Gronkowski as the only tight ends to record 1,000 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons, and he set career-highs in targets (124), receiving yards (1,104), and yards per reception (14.3). He did it all for the Panthers, including moving the sticks with a team-high 52 catches that resulted in first down and recording 12 receptions that led to a gain of 25-plus yard. Needless to say, he was fantastic. Still, there’s reason to believe that he’ll regress this year.
Olsen’s 20 red-zone targets last season were the most he has recorded since 2009. This year, he’ll have to fight for those looks between a 6’5” receiver with 35-inch arms (Benjamin) and another who is 6’4” with a wingspan of more than 82″ (Funchess). Funchess recorded 12 red-zone targets and five touchdowns alongside Olsen last year, but the two have yet to share the field together with Benjamin. Seeing as how Benjamin received 18 red-zone targets to Olsen’s 16 in 2014, one can assume only that all three will receive their fair share of looks.
In 2012 and 2013, Olsen finished as a fantasy TE6 and TE7. With increased volume over the last two seasons, he has finished as a TE4. Regression wouldn’t mean a dramatic drop off, but it may affect whether he can meet salary-based expectations if he’s priced in the top-five at his position. It’s better to take a wait-and-see approach with him at the beginning of the season.
Ed Dickson
Olsen and Dickson combined for 98.4 percent of snaps logged by Carolina’s tight ends. Dickson took part in all 16 games, but averaged only 1.6 targets in that span and 1.3 over the last two seasons with Carolina. There’s no need to worry about paying for a tight end when his best skill is staying healthy.
Two-Minute Warning
The Panthers may have won 15 games last season, but that didn’t prevent them from being gifted another easy schedule. They open the year against the defending champs (minus Peyton Manning), and they host the Vikings in Week 3. Beyond that, their toughest stretch of games isn’t until Weeks 8-10, when they face the Cardinals, (against whom they put up 49 points in last season’s NFC Conference Championship), the Rams (who allowed the fourth-most opponent plays per game in 2015), and the Chiefs (who are away from Arrowhead Stadium). Newton’s touchdown total is bound to regress, but Carolina’s 10.5 win total is achievable.
The Panthers are favored in 13 of their first 15 games, the exceptions being Week 1 in Denver and Week 13 at Seattle. Even without Norman, the NFL MVP will single-handedly ensure that we’re still watching the Panthers come January.
