From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs will be releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Buffalo Bills Team Preview
“Are we going to do ground and pound? Yeah, you’re darn right we are,” said Rex Ryan in his inaugural press conference as Buffalo’s head coach. Whatever it took for the Bills to be in the conversation as an average offense at season’s end. After all, they hadn’t pieced together a top-10 offense in the 10 years prior to last season, finishing higher than 20th overall only once since 2003. That would help explain why the team traded the farm for Sammy Watkins in 2014 and went out of its way to acquire LeSean McCoy last year.
The Bills finally reached the ‘mountaintop’ in 2015, finishing 13th overall in total yards and eighth in yards per play. Without injuries, they likely could have accomplished much more. But they did have injuries — a handful of them, in fact. Now the Bills are just hoping to build on what took them so long to achieve in the first place. (A turnaround for their defense, which finished bottom-five in Weighted Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average, wouldn’t hurt either.)
Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor
There was no guarantee that Taylor would be named the starter last season, let alone impact the Buffalo offense in such a resounding way. The best thing that could be said about him coming into the year was that he wasn’t Matt Cassel or E.J. Manuel. He then completed 77.4 percent of his 31 pass attempts during the preseason, running away with the Bills’ starting job. More importantly, his uber-efficient play carried over into the regular season.
Taylor finished 2015 as one of only five quarterbacks to average at least eight yards per attempt. Although various injuries to his chest, ankle, shoulder, and MCL would sideline him for two games, Taylor still scored 24 total touchdowns on the season, all the while committing only seven turnovers. Those injuries would linger into the latter half of the season, noticeably diminishing his production at times, but he still averaged 19.9 DraftKings points per game, good for a top-15 quarterback finish.
What really set Taylor apart was his legs. Cam Newton, for example, led all starting quarterbacks with 8.25 rushing attempts per game. Taylor averaged the second-most with 7.43. Despite the difference in attempts, it was the latter who averaged 40.57 rushing yards per game, the highest mark at his position.
Taylor was a cash game commodity each and every week at DraftKings due in part to a salary that exceeded $6,000 only once. He should be given slightly more respect across sites in 2016 but will still likely provide value early in the season, especially since he’ll presumably be healthy to start the year.
EJ Manuel
Last year, Manuel started two games in place of an injured Taylor, and he actually did well (enough) in those games. Despite his struggles to this point in his career, it’s possible that Manuel could thrive in Roman’s offense, just as Taylor has thrived. No one will ever confuse Manuel for a good passer, but he has the easy ability to accumulate points with his legs and should have a relatively high floor if he makes spot starts in 2016 as long as his salary stays low. In his two starts last year, Manuel had a +7.25 Plus/Minus on DraftKings, aided no doubt by his $5,000 and $5,100 salaries.
We also shouldn’t assume that Buffalo’s wide receivers will automatically suffer if Manuel makes a couple of starts. Watkins and Robert Woods reached their salary-based expectations in 100 percent of Manuel’s 2015 starts with a +7.72 Plus/Minus. The sample is small, but the extent to which the wide receivers crushed their expectations is encouraging.
Wide Receivers
Sammy Watkins
Watkins underwent surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot this offseason, and his projected timetable currently remains unclear. This is notable for a variety of reasons, the first being Taylor’s performance with and without his No. 1 target. When Watkins missed Weeks 4 and 5 with a calf strain last year, Taylor averaged 191.5 yards per game and 6.46 yards per pass attempt. He performed much better with Watkins on the field, averaging 221 YPG and 8.79 YPA. In fact, over the final nine games of the season, only two receivers were better at exceeding their salaries.
If he makes it back in time for Week 1, the jury’s out on how effective Watkins can be. What is clear is that he’s the Bills’ most pronounced playmaker. Watkins tied Allen Robinson in averaging 17.5 yards per catch last season, and he finished with the highest catch rate (62.5 percent) among receivers who averaged at least 16 YPC. He also accounted for 43.3 percent of Taylor’s passes that resulted in gains of 25-plus yards.
At a minimum, even if he regresses or isn’t fully healthy to open the year, Watkins will be worth rostering in tournaments because of his upside and big-play ability.
Robert Woods
In three games without Watkins last season, Woods averaged 4.5 targets from Taylor (in Weeks 4 and 5) and 12 targets from Manuel (in Week 7). He finished with only 123 total yards in those outings. He averaged 7.1 targets following the team’s Week 8 bye, but his 48.8 percent catch rate in those six games was still problematic. Woods was finally shut down with a torn left and right groin in Week 16, two ailments he had apparently been fighting through the second half of the season. If Watkins were unavailable to play in Week 1, Woods might see more targets but there’s really no evidence to suggest that Woods is capable of serving as Buffalo’s No. 1 receiver, even as a short-term injury fill-in.
And, unfortunately for Woods, offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s scheme isn’t built to fit two viable wide receivers, so when Watkins finally returns to health Woods will probably look more like a professional jogger than an NFL wide receiver. Just last year the Bills recorded the second-most carries in the NFL and finished in the bottom-two in passing attempts. Going back to his time in San Francisco, Roman’s offenses over the last five seasons have never finished outside the top 10 in carries and have always ranked in the bottom four in passing attempts. There just aren’t enough targets to support a No. 2 wide receiver.
Football Outsiders has measured up to 90 receivers using DVOA over the last five seasons. In three of those five seasons, the No. 2 wide receiver in Greg Roman’s offense averaged the 64th overall DVOA, a mark that corresponds to what we’d expect to see out of the second-best No. 3 receiver in the league. In 2013 and 2011, the No. 2 receivers in Roman’s offense didn’t even qualify since they caught only 33 and 20 passes. It’s hard to fathom Woods being consistently serviceable this season if Watkins takes the field in Week 1.
Marquise Goodwin
Right now, the small burner from Texas is the team’s No. 3 receiver. Last year, he was targeted twice. At least he caught both passes. Of course, the year before he had only one reception — on nine targets. In a perfect world for the Bills, this year Goodwin will magically morph into a version of 2015 Travis Benjamin who isn’t relied upon to be his team’s main receiver. He did after all as a rookie turn 32 targets into 17 receptions for an explosive 283 yards and three touchdowns.
But the Bills don’t live in a perfect world. Goodwin? More like ‘Badloss,’ amirite?
Dezmin Lewis
Buffalo’s offense struggles to utilize two wide receivers, so it shouldn’t shock anyone to learn that last year’s No. 3 receiver, Chris Hogan, was targeted only 35 times in the 10 games that Taylor and Watkins both started.
Lewis is a 6’4” second-year specimen who entered training camp as the presumptive No. 3 receiver. That job’s not really worth much anyway . . . and now it’s no longer his. He really might not even be the No. 4 receiver.
Greg Salas
Salas’ ability to return punts could win him a role on the 53-man roster, but as an injury-prone journeyman who has spent time with five different teams over the past four seasons, Salas is unlikely to see a scenario in which he becomes a useful fantasy option. It has been a long time since he led the college ranks in receiving yards as a senior at Hawaii. In extreme circumstances, Salas probably has ‘Chris Hogan upside’ if he sees regular snaps. And that might be the saddest sentence anyone has ever written.
Kolby Listenbee
Although Listenbee reportedly spent time honing his route running — particularly underneath routes — in his final season at Texas Christian University, the sixth-round rookie is known for being more of a speedster and deep-threat option than a polished technician. Listenbee blazed a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the combine at 6’0” and 197 lbs. and averaged nearly 20 yards per reception in 2015. He won’t receive significant (if any) snaps to start the year, but his explosiveness could force Buffalo to play him more if the offense struggles to stretch the field.
Of course, he’s opening the season on the reserve/NFI list, so the earliest he’ll see the field anyway is Week 7.
Tight Ends
Charles Clay
Although some DFS players hoped that Clay’s nine-catch 111-yard performance against the Giants in Week 4 was a sign of production to come, it ended up being merely an example of what a decent tight end can do when 1) his team’s No. 1 wide receiver is injured, 2) the No. 2 wide receiver is ineffectual, and 3) he’s facing a defense that will finish the season as the second-worst unit against tight ends (as measured by raw fantasy points allowed). When Clay’s underwhelming season abruptly ended with a back injury in Week 14, his Week 4 performance could be seen for what it was: An anomaly.
Per Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News, the Bills believe that Clay can be “even more productive in Roman’s tight-end-centric system,” as they are “convinced [Clay] would have had significantly better numbers last season had Taylor looked more often to throw toward the middle of the field.” He was targeted only three times inside the opponent’s 20-yard line last season, his lowest total since 2012. Compare that to his final two seasons with Miami, when he recorded 15 and 20 red-zone targets.
If Watkins misses time throughout the season, Clay will be a candidate to lead the team in targets in the absence of the No. 1 receiver. What those targets will actually be worth is very uncertain.
Running Backs
LeSean McCoy
McCoy averaged a -0.10 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in 2014 despite recording the second-most rushing attempts in the NFL, so it makes sense that there was skepticism surrounding his debut season in Buffalo. His first two games didn’t help matters.
From that point forward, McCoy’s salary wouldn’t touch the $7,000 mark again, allowing him to smash salary-based expectations by an average of +4.02 points per game before an MCL tear ended his season in Week 15.
He averaged 19.7 touches and 4.99 yards per touch in that span.
In 2016, the Bills will most likely lean on McCoy once again, and if he avoids injury he should be a top-12 back. Of course, they face the Ravens, Jets, Cardinals, and Patriots to open the year, four defenses that finished in the top seven in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to running backs. McCoy’s workload will keep him as a cash option in that time, but his upside in tournaments will be extremely limited.
Karlos Williams
Per Aldous Snow and Infant Sorrow: “How can you read / when you are blind?”
Last season, Williams looked like a guy destined to eat. It turns out he was. The suspended running back has been cut by the Bills, allowed to pass through waivers unclaimed, and forced to pretend that he wouldn’t mind playing for the Jets. But it could be worse: It’s not as if he has a pregnant wife and unborn child depending on him.
Reading his Rotoworld blurb history is like watching a car wreck in slow motion — as it’s happening. For him to make a significant 2016 impact, he’s going to need to shape up — literally.
Reggie Bush
Signed to a one-year deal at the beginning of August, the veteran Bush is likely to be the team’s primary return man. There are plans to use Bush and McCoy together in two-back sets, but even the best-laid plans . . . and using them together might not even be all that great of a plan. Bush hasn’t recorded 200 carries since 2013, but if he contributes on offense it probably won’t be as a runner anyway. Since his rookie season 10 years ago, Bush has been at his best as a receiver, averaging 86.2 targets per 16 games over the course of his career. Even as an ‘old man’ in Detroit in 2013 and 2014, he still had an 87-target pace per 16 games.
If McCoy misses any time this year, Bush could immediately become a viable low-end change-of-pace DFS asset by virtue of his receiving prowess. Even without a McCoy injury, Bush will likely make for a high-upside (unconventional and occasional) double-dip tournament stack with the Bills defense. It’s not outside the realm of possibility for him to have a multiple-touchdown game this season, scoring as both a returner and a receiver.
Mike Gillislee
With Karlos Williams now off the team, the No. 2 running back job in Buffalo looks like Gillislee’s to lose. The Bills added Gillislee to the active roster in Week 13, and he repaid them with a decent 47-267-3 five-game stat line to finish the year. McCoy notably dealt with hamstring injuries last season, and if he were to miss any time then Gillislee could probably be an adequate injury fill-in who would likely cede targets to Bush.
Jonathan Williams
Many believe that Jonathan Williams, whom Buffalo drafted in the fifth round, would’ve been selected earlier had he not gotten hurt and missed his final season at Arkansas. He’s now supposedly 100 percent healthy and has a real shot to become the team’s No. 2 runner. So far, he has rushed for 103 yards and two scores on 27 carries in the preseason.
The best news for the rookie is that running backs coach Anthony Lynn said that the team will likely give McCoy’s goal-line carries to other runners. At 5’11” and 220 lbs., the rookie has the build to be a short-yardage grinder. With the other Williams no longer around, it’s entirely plausible that Arkansas’ own fills that void in his first year with the Bills.
Two-Minute Warning
The Bills were in shambles at the end of 2015, and not much has changed since then. At every skill position except for quarterback they have significant injury and/or depth concerns. The best-case scenario is probably their eight projected wins. But if Watkins is ready by Week 1 — and that’s a large ‘if’ — then that’s at least one elite passing-game playmaker on whom Buffalo can rely.
Of course, the fact remains that half of the Bills’ opponents to open this season were in the top 10 in Defensive Passing DVOA in 2015, and seven finished in the top 15. When the stout opposing rushing defenses are added to the mix, there’s no end in sight to their uphill battle. If the team’s struggles make the players cheaper DFS options, that might be a good thing. But that’s one too many ifs for a team hoping to reach the playoffs for the first time since being on the wrong side of the Music City Miracle.
