The 2016 John Deere Classic
Despite the Olympic buzz this week, the PGA Tour continues onward with the John Deere Classic. This event is held at TPC Deere Run, a par-71 course that plays slightly over 7,200 yards. Though the total yardage looks to lend itself to the longer hitters, the 11 Par 4s on the course play at an average length of only 433 yards — so lack of length should not be a hindrance to scoring. Long-Term Driving Distance remains a staple of my GPP Player Model this week, but it won’t be receiving any extra attention. The biggest bump in my sliders will be going to both Recent and Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Round) and Greens in Regulation (GIR), with a focus on birdie makers. This tournament, similar to last week’s Travelers Championship, should post high scores.
TPC Deere Run hosts this event every year, so course history data is plentiful this week. Here is a look at which players in this field have at least three top-25 finishes in the last five years.
Five of the players listed above are among the top-10 highest-priced golfers this week; Kyle Stanley is the only one priced below $8,000. Taking the course history angle this week will not be cheap, but it is hard to ignore a track record as solid as Zach Johnson’s. Speaking of Johnson, let’s dive a little deeper into the field.
Player Breakdown
$9,000 – $13,000
Zach Johnson ($13,000) has finished in the top three in each of his last five appearances at this event, so it should come as no surprise that his 68.2 average Course Adjusted Round Score is the best in the field. This is the most expensive that Johnson has ever been, but he is fully expected to be one of the most popular plays of the week. He is coming into this event with a Recent Driving Accuracy (DA) of only 60.7 percent, which is much lower that what it was going into 2015 (77.6 percent) and 2014 (76.2 percent). However, his Recent Putts Per Round (PPR) of 28.2 is significantly better than his 29.6 average from the past two years. Also, what appears to be a lack of accuracy off the tee is being dragged down by him hitting only 42 percent of his fairways at the Bridgestone Invitational. While he is certainly fine for cash games, his popularity warrants serious fade consideration in large-field tournaments.
After a third-place finish at the PGA Championship and an 11th-place finish at last week’s Travelers Championship, the days of Daniel Summerhays ($10,600) flying under the radar might be behind us. Even if it weren’t for his strong recent performances, his three consecutive top-15 finishes at this event were sure to bring some popularity his way. Similar to Johnson, Summerhays is more expensive than ever: This event marks his first time he has been priced over $8,900. I have been beating the ‘Summerhays is consistently underpriced’ drum for a few weeks now because of his +9.71 Plus/Minus, and his Recent PPR of 28.3 shows that his bread and butter is still working for him. It will be tough to fit both Summerhays and Johnson into a cash-game lineup, but he does offer $2,400 of salary relief as a pivot off of ZJ in tournaments.
Wesley Bryan ($9,700) is most known for doing trick-shot videos on YouTube (more on that later), but he is now on the PGA Tour after earning a performance promotion (or ‘battlefield promotion’) – accomplished by winning his third Web.com Tour event of the year. He is $300 more expensive than Jerry Kelly ($9,400), who has solid course history and is coming into this event fresh off a second-place finish at last week’s Travelers Championship. Wesley is relatively unknown due to playing most of his events away from the PGA Tour and could be a lower-owned option in this pricing tier. His 16.6 Long-Term Adjusted Birdies average (LT Adj Birdies), which adjusts for course and strength of field, is the highest among players in this range of salaries. Though his last three events were on the Web.com Tour, he did hit 75.0 percent of his greens and 71.4 percent of his fairways in regulation during that time. He could be an excellent tournament option if he is able to continue similar play this week.
$7,000 – $8,900
After a 47th-place finish last week, Stuart Appleby ($7,200) has now made three consecutive cuts. His LT PPR of 28.5 is the highest of any player in this salary range, but his 60.5 percent LT GIR is the worst. He has managed to hit slightly more greens and has increased his Driving Accuracy by 7.4 percentage points through his last four events. Though he doesn’t have excellent course history, he has hit over 80.0 percent of his fairways and at least 67.0 percent of his GIR in his last three appearances at TPC Deere Run. His stellar work with the flat stick should help him to convert birdies if he can manage to find the greens this week, but his 44.0 percent Dud Rating on the year removes him from cash-game consideration.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Keegan Bradley ($7,800), who hits greens at an elite rate but has not been able to find a solid putting stroke since a rule change forced him to go to a more traditional-length putter. His 12.4 average LT Adj Birdies per tournament is exceptional when considering that it has been accomplished despite his LT PPR of 30.0. His last three events include two Major championships, and he has made the cut in each event, bringing his Adj Round Score down to 68.2 from his long-term average of 69.6. With a LT GIR mark of 68.7, he is a hot putter away from a high finish, and this is one of the weaker fields of competition he is going to see this season.
Steve Wheatcroft ($7,000) has only hit 61.4 percent of his greens and 60.2 percent of his fairways over the past 75 weeks, but his 28.7 average PPR during that time is among the best in the field. He did miss the cut at the Travelers Championship, but he has brought his GIR and DA up to 65.3 and 72.0 percent, respectively, through his last four events. In that time, his putting has remained steady, and he has averaged 16.0 Adj Birdies per tournament as a result. He has played this event three times since 2010 and made the cut on both occasions when he hit at least 70.0 percent of his greens. He isn’t someone I would consider if I were seeking safety, but he should make some birdie putts if he is able to find the putting surface in regulation.
$5,600 – $6,900
Henrik Norlander ($6,800) has made eight consecutive cuts and notched his best finish of the year, finishing 25th at last week’s Travelers Championship. His putting hasn’t come around (29.8 Recent PPR), but he is still averaging 16.5 Adj Birdies per tournament through his last four events. Also, his already-excellent ball striking has slightly improved: His 72.7 GIR through his last four events is 3.4 percentage points better than his long-term average. His putting during that time has remained poor, but the slight increase in accuracy has helped improve his Adj Round Score by 1.2 strokes.
Jason Bohn ($6,600) leads all players priced below $7,000 with a LT Adj Rd Score of 69.8. His 276.3-yard LT DD is the biggest leak in his game, but he hits 70.8 percent of his fairways and his lack of distance shouldn’t hurt him too much on the short Par 4s at TPC Deere Run. He hasn’t played as well lately, resulting in a 71.0 Recent Adj Round Score through his last two events, but he uncharacteristically averaged only a 59.8 percent DA during that time. His course history here is spotty and features two missed cuts in his past five appearances, but he could be a solid tournament option if he is able to regain control of his driver.
From Trick Shots to Tour Pro
I was planning on leaving you with a highlight video of Jim Furyk’s final-round 58 at last week’s Travelers Championship, but I assume that you have already seen the highlights. Instead, here is a video of Wesley Bryan’s journey through trick shots and the Web.com Tour. He and his brother documented most of it themselves. Enjoy!
