The 2016 Barclays
The 2016 FedEx Cup Playoffs kick off with the top-125 players in the current rankings qualifying for this week’s event. The Barclays features a rotating cast of courses and will play at Bethpage Black for the first time since 2012, when it was won by Nick Watney at 10 under par. This Par-71 course features only three Par-5 holes, but Par-5 scoring could still come into play: The trio played as the three easiest holes relative to par in 2012.
This is a difficult course. Although it measures over 7,400 yards, distance in the absence of accuracy will spell trouble for the bombers with shaky short games. Length off of the tee will surely help, but players who can find fairways and excel around 200 yards should also be able to navigate the course well. With no course history to rely on and a field strength that rivals major championships, focusing on players with solid Long-Term Adjusted Round Scores (LT Adj Rd Scores) is a sensible starting point when building your Player Model this week.
$9,000 – $12,400
Dustin Johnson ($11,900) is still fresh off of a missed cut at the PGA Championship, but that isn’t enough to make us entirely forget about the incredible season he is having. Prior to the PGA, he has finished in the top 10 in six straight events, including wins at the Bridgestone Invitational and U.S. Open. His average LT Driving Distance (DD) of 314.8 yards should help him take advantage of the three Par-5s on this course, specifically on the front nine, where the fourth and seventh hole (both Par-5s) are only 517 and 553 yards. It will be important to capitalize on the few scoring opportunities presented this week, due to there not being as many birdie opportunities available here as there have been at the more recent events. For context, last week’s Wyndham Championship featured 541 more birdies than the 2012 Barclays (the last time it was played at Bethpage Black).
Henrik Stenson ($11,700) and his trusty three wood lead all players priced above $9,000 with a 71.5 percent LT Driving Accuracy (DA). Although he leaves his driver in the bag for most of the round, he still carries a 292-yard LT DD and has hit 74.9 percent of his LT Greens in Regulation. If you are looking for Stenson’s weakness, look no further than the greens. His LT Putts per Round (PPR) average of 30 is among the worst in the field, but he has managed to shave 0.6 putts off of his average through his last three events. The strength of this field should spread exposure around some of these high-priced golfers, but it is not likely that Stenson goes overlooked. I would make it a point to differentiate elsewhere if deciding to go with Stenson in lower-stakes tournaments.
Rickie Fowler ($9,300) is always a popular pick, specifically in lower-stakes tournaments, in which fading him is always an option. Rickie’s season has widely been considered a disappointment, but he has made the cut in his last five appearances since missing three straight cuts starting at the Wells Fargo Championship. He finished 22nd at last week’s Wyndham Championship despite averaging 31 PPR, which is 2.1 strokes more than his LT average. He also hit 84 percent GIR last week, which was tied for fifth in the field. The Bridgestone invitation is the last event in which he averaged fewer than 28 PPR as well as the last time he finished in the top 10. There are safer options in cash games — his 65 percent Consistency Rating on the year is second-worst among this range of salaries — but he has the upside to finish near the top of the leader board if he continues his ball striking from last week.
$7000 – $8,900
Emiliano Grillo ($8,300) is in great form coming into this event, as shown in his average Adj Rd Score of 68.2 through his last four events. His LT Adj Par-5 Scoring average (Adj Par-5) of -5.1 and 14.9 Adj Birdies per Tournament (Adj Birdies) are both second-best in this range of salaries. His moderate distance from the tee (292.7-yard LT DD) is made better by his LT DA of 68.6 percent. Same story, different week for Grillo: He should perform well if he is able to putt better than his LT PPR average of 29.8. Even with an uncooperative putter, he should have some opportunities to score due to his stellar LT GIR of 70.1 percent.
Russel Knox ($7,300) hasn’t missed a cut since the BMW PGA Championship in late May, and his Recent Adj Rd Score of 67.6 is the best in this pricing tier. His LT DD of 283.5 yards is ways away from what you may be looking for on a course that measures over 7,400 yards, but he can still perform well on longer courses: He currently ranks second on the PGA Tour this season in GIR from 200-plus yards (59.8 percent). His peaking form has shown itself through his finding the fairway with 73.8 percent of his tee shots through his last three events. He has also managed to find 74.5 percent GIR during that time. It is difficult to ignore the fact that he is a poor putter. His LT PPR of 29.8 is actually 0.3 strokes better than his recent average. His putting may be good reason to look elsewhere in cash games, but his 43 percent Upside rating speaks volumes about his tournament viability.
Kevin Na ($7,300) finished 10th at last week’s Wyndham Championship to make it two consecutive top-10 finishes to enter this event. The course fit is not great, given his 280.2-yard LT DD, but he is an incredible bargain relative to his LT Adj Rd Score of 68.9. His impressive recent performances have resulted in recent GIR and DA averages of 75.3 and 68.8 percent. More impressive is that he has put together his solid recent finishes despite an average PPR of 29.4, which is 0.8 strokes worse than his LT average. If he can remain in form with his accuracy, he could perform well this weekend and serve to differentiate a lineup that otherwise takes the bombers approach.
$5,500 – $6,900
Ryan Palmer ($5,900) has made the cut in each of his last three events, but he has only two top-10 finishes dating back to February. He currently has 11 Pro Trends, tied for the highest in the field. His 304.6-yard LT DD sets up well for this course, but he manages to find the fairway with only 56.3 percent of his drives. Palmer has a Plus/Minus of +10.3 and a 78 percent Consistency rating this year and offers significant salary relief in both cash games and tournaments. This event marks only the eighth time that he has been priced below $7,000, and he has far exceeded his salary-based expectations in each of the prior seven occasions.
Daniel Summerhays ($5,800) averages only a 287-yard LT DD, but he has shown an ability to let it fly recently with a 294-yard average through his last five events. He has played well in strong fields this year, finishing in the top 25 in the Players Championship, U.S. Open, and PGA Championship. This will be his first event since his missed cut at the John Deere Classic, but he averaged 30 PPR in that event, which is much higher than his LT average of 28.5. Similar to Palmer, he offers a rare level of consistency at the sub-$6,000 range, averaging 11.8 points above his salary-based expectations with 80 percent Consistency.
Back To Bethpage
This event hasn’t been played at the Bethpage Black since the 2012 FedEx Cup Playoffs, so I felt that it would be fitting to leave you with the 10 best shots from the 2012 playoffs. The Barclays begins a stretch of some great tournaments leading right into football season. Perfect.
Good luck!
