I’ll be breaking down the 10 best leverage plays every week throughout the 2018 NFL season. The focus will be on analyzing our new proprietary metric, Leverage Score, which is based on projected ownership and ceiling.
Visit the FantasyLabs NFL page for more weekly breakdowns. You can also view all of this week’s Leverage Score data using the Player Models.
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LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
The Bills’ offense is a complete disaster, but McCoy could be in play as a volume-based leverage option for tournaments.
With limited weapons in the passing game and at the goal line, McCoy could be a reasonable pivot off more popular options in his price range, such as Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey, with a similar workload expectation.
Rostering any Bills player as a +7.5 road dog is not ideal, but it’s notable that the Ravens tied for the seventh-most rushing touchdowns allowed in 2017. No running back owns a higher DraftKings leverage score than McCoy in Week 1.
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Odell Beckham, WR, New York Giants ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
He carries the highest leverage score of any FLEX option on either site. Our own Ian Hartitz describes OBJ’s showdown with Jalen Ramsey perfectly in this week’s WR/CB breakdown:
“Antonio Brown was the only wide receiver to gain over 100 yards against the Jaguars last season (Though he did so twice). OBJ obviously has a brutal matchup, but it’s not every day one of the league’s most-talented receivers gets reduced ownership across the daily fantasy industry.”
It’s possible Ramsey won’t follow Beckham into the slot — which would be ideal — be he also seems to be close to full strength after not appearing on the Jaguars’ final injury report (ankle).
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Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
The transition to Patrick Mahomes has been easier for Tyreek Hill so far, but Kelce should still have a secure red-zone role. With all the salary to play with this week, most people will go all the way up to Rob Gronkowski, giving Kelce the top leverage score at the position at a slightly cheaper price on both sites.
The matchup is not great; the Chargers were tied for the second-fewest touchdowns allowed to the position and the ninth-fewest DraftKings points. That said, with Joey Bosa unable to go, it’s a massive downgrade for this entire defensive unit.
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Danny Amendola, WR, Miami Dolphins ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
The most obvious leverage spot in Week 1 is deciding who we can play at a similar price point as the mega-chalk wide receiver, Keelan Cole.
The problem with these cheap wide receiver options on a normal week is usually volume, which is part of the reason people are so high on Cole after Marqise Lee was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Volume shouldn’t be a huge problem with Amendola, and he seems to be going slightly overlooked.
If he can capture at least part of the role Jarvis Landry left behind, he makes a ton of sense on a point-per-reception site such as DraftKings. He owns the sixth-highest individual WR/CB matchup on the slate, according to Pro Football Focus, running the majority of his routes against Logan Ryan in the slot. Amendola’s 3.12 projected DraftKings Plus/Minus is the third-highest on the slate.
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New Orleans Saints, DST ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel)
I mentioned them in the Week 1 Defense and Special Teams Breakdown, and the Saints trail only the Ravens and Jaguars in both interception rate (3.48%) and takeaway rate (2.04%) over the past year. Ryan Fitzpatrick has done a decent job at limiting turnovers, but New Orleans comes in as the slate’s largest favorite (-9.5) so game-script should be in the Saints’ favor.
With seemingly the entire community fixated on rostering the Ravens defense against Nathan Peterman, the Saints could offer comparable upside at far lower ownership. They have the highest leverage score of any defense.
More Fantasy Football Rankings
PPR: Flex | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
Standard: Flex | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
Half-Point PPR: Flex | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
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Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
He’s probably too expensive for cash games, but he has the highest leverage score at the position on both sites. We currently project the Vikings for the most offensive plays (67.2) of any team in Week 1, so you could do worse than Cousins in tournaments as a 7.5-point home favorite with an implied team total just outside the top tier (26.25).
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Dede Westbrook, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Not to keep beating up the Cole dilemma, but finding leverage there could be the key to this entire slate in tournaments. Would anyone be surprised if a different Jaguars wide receiver ended up outperforming him? Davis Mattek illustrates this exact point in this week’s DFS Fringe Plays:
“Per airyards.com, both Cole and Westbrook have above-average Game Speed after 25 yards, although Cole burns after 55 yards traveled. Westbrook is a former fourth-round draft pick and a Fred Biletnikoff Award winner who got off to a slow start in the NFL due to injury. Cole over Westbrook does make sense for cash because Cole will get more snaps, but Westbrook will get a softer corner matchup and will come at a gigantic ownership discount.”
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Case Keenum, QB, Denver Broncos ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
The Seahawks’ defense is a shell of its former self, and taking advantage of that early in the season before casual fans adjust is a narrative I will be attacking heavily. Keenum is cheaper than both Tyrod Taylor and Andy Dalton who have been getting some buzz as cheap options, and his peripheral metrics show that there’s a lot to like.
We project the Broncos to run the fourth-most offensive plays (65.9), and Keenum is a home favorite with a tight -2.5 spread. Historically, similarly priced quarterbacks with comparable Vegas data at home have provided a +0.46 DraftKings Plus/Minus at a low 2.8% ownership rate (per our Trends tool).
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John Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
The public is reasonably low on “Smokey” Brown after his sickle-cell issues in Arizona, but it wasn’t long ago that he was considered a rising star in the NFL.
There has been a constant drumbeat throughout camp and preseason of the strong chemistry between Brown and Joe Flacco. The matchup isn’t fantastic against a Bills team that likes to limit deep passes, but Brown’s big-play ability and Flacco’s arm strength carry the upside to break this slate wide open on a single play.
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Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
His touches are less guaranteed than those of other options in this price range, but Duke offers the fourth-highest leverage score at the position and is a reasonable pivot off James Conner in this same game.
Carlos Hyde is expected to start as the primary two-down back, but it makes sense that Johnson would see significant snaps if (or when) the Browns fall behind. The only quarterback to throw to his backfield more often than TyGod (27.9%) over the past year is Drew Brees (31.2%).
Pictured above: Danny Amendola (80)
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
