The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: There’s a six-game early slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET and an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Unfortunately, the rainout between the Cubs and Nationals last night means that Max Scherzer will pitch the first game of their doubleheader and therefore not be available on today’s slates. The resulting group of stud pitchers is pretty uninspiring on DraftKings:
- Jack Flaherty (R) $10,500, CHC @ DET
- Noah Syndergaard (R) $10,200, NYM vs. PHI
- Eduardo Rodriguez (R) $10,000, BOS vs. HOU
Flaherty has arguably the best matchup of the stud tier. He’s taking on the Detroit Tigers, who own the second-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitchers in 2018. They also have the 10th-highest strikeout rate, and Flaherty’s resulting K Prediction of 7.9 is the top mark of the day. His opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs and moneyline odds of -160 also rank second on the early slate.
Unfortunately, he enters this contest in subpar recent form. He’s allowed his past two opponents to post a hard-hit rate of 45%, which represents an increase of +10 percentage points when compared to his 12-month average.
Syndergaard might be the preferred option for cash games on the main slate. He leads all pitchers with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his Bargain Rating of 56% is the top mark among the stud pitchers. He also has the lowest opponent implied team total of the day at just 3.2 runs.
The Phillies also represent a pretty good matchup for Syndergaard in terms of strikeout upside. Their projected lineup has posted a K rate of 25.0% over the past 12 months, giving Syndergaard a K Prediction of 6.9. His average of 110 pitchers per start over his past two contests is the top mark on the slate, which should give him a better chance than most to reach his full strikeout potential.
Rodriguez enters today’s contest in the best recent form among the stud pitchers. He limited his latest opponent to an average distance of 194 feet, exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 14 percent; All three of those represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
That said, he has a brutal matchup vs. Houston Astros. Their projected lineup has posted a .336 wOBA and a strikeout rate of just 18.7% against left-handers over the past 12 months, and they’re implied for 4.5 runs on today’s slate. Historically, pitchers with a comparable salary and opponent implied team total have averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.81 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). He might make some sense at low ownership for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but he’s way too risky for cash games.
Values
Gio Gonzalez will make his debut for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he couldn’t ask for a better spot than vs. the San Francisco Giants. Their projected lineup has been pitiful against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, owning a dreadful .240 wOBA and 29.4% strikeout rate. His -190 moneyline odds make him the largest favorite of the day, while his opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs ranks third. Gonzalez has also limited his past two opponents to a hard-hit rate of just 25%, so he’s in really good recent form as well. He should be a popular option on DraftKings, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%.
Jose Berrios could be an interesting buy-low option vs. the Kansas City Royals. He’s been dreadful over his past five starts, averaging just 7.80 DraftKings points per game, but his salary has decreased by $1,000 on DraftKings over that time frame. His Statcast data from his past two starts is particularly concerning, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +26 feet and hard-hit differential of +24 percentage points.
That said, his batted ball profile may not matter against an offensively challenged team like the Royals. They’ve averaged the third fewest runs per game this season, and their wOBA of .306 vs. right-handed pitching is the seventh-lowest mark in the league. His resulting marks are solid: 3.8 opponent implied team total, -185 moneyline odds, 6.7 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.41 on DraftKings.
Edwin Jackson is having a resurgence this season with the Oakland A’s, owning a 2.91 ERA through his first 13 starts. His Statcast data from his past two starts is incredible, allowing an average distance of 178 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate of 18%. He’ll have a chance to build upon those numbers today vs. the Texas Rangers, who are implied for just 3.8 runs. He’s an intriguing value on FanDuel, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fastballs
Cole Hamels: He’s been fantastic as a member of the Cubs, owning a 1.00 through his first seven starts. He has a decent matchup vs. the Washington Nationals, whose projected lineup has struggled to a 26.6% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Matt Harvey: He’s far from the pitcher that he was in his prime, but Harvey does have an excellent matchup vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup has limped to a .299 wOBA and 27.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- 1. Billy McKinney (L)
- 2. Lourdes Gurriel (R)
- 3. Jusin Smoak (S)
- 5. Randall Grichuk (R)
- 6. Kevin Pillar (R)
Total Salary: $19,700
The Blue Jays are implied for 4.6 runs, which is merely tied for fifth on the early slate. However, their Team Value Rating of 66 ranks third on DraftKings, which makes them a strong target for those paying up at pitcher. The above stack costs just $19,700, which means you can easily pair them with Flaherty or Rodriguez.
They’re taking on Indians right-hander Adam Plutko, who has allowed a disastrous HR/9 of 2.30 over the past 12 months. He also enters today’s contest in poor recent form, underperforming his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over his past two starts. Conversely, the Jays enter today’s contest with excellent Statcast marks over the past 15 days. They’re lead by projected No. 5 hitter Grichuk, who has posted a 260 foot average distance, 95 mile per hour exit velocity, and 59% hard hit rate over his past 12 games.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Brian Dozier (R)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 3. Manny Machado (R)
- 5. David Freese (R)
Total Salary: $15,900
The Dodgers’ implied team total of 5.4 runs is the top mark on the slate and has already increased by +0.3 runs since opening. They’re taking on Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has pitched to a sparkling 2.63 ERA since the All-Star break. That said, he could be due for some regression: His xFIP of 4.16 is more than 1.5 runs higher than his ERA over that time frame, and he’s allowed a hard hit rate of 42% over his past two starts.
All four of the stacked batters are on the positive side of their batting splits facing a left-handed pitcher, and Turner, Machado, and Freese have all posted positive 15-day/12-month differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate. They’re in a potential smash spot at Coors Field.
Other Batters
The Twins could be an intriguing stack target given their implied team total of 5.3 runs, and they have a few batters who look like excellent values on FanDuel. Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, and Jake Cave each own a Bargain Rating of at least 93%, and all three will be on the positive side of their batting splits against Royals right-hander Jorge Lopez. He’s allowed just three HRs over 40.1 innings pitched, but all three have come to left-handed batters.
Matt Chapman continues to smoke the baseball, averaging a 239-foot distance, 95 mile per hour exit velocity, and 43% hard hit rate over his past 14 games. The A’s are implied for 4.8 runs vs. Rangers left-hander Yohander Mendez, and Chapman has owned lefties to the tune of a .387 wOBA and .276 ISO in 2018. He looks like a nice value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 70%.
Arguably no one is in better recent form than Ender Inciarte. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +42 feet and hard hit differential of +12 percentage points, and he’s currently playing in the hitter’s paradise known as Chase Field. The Braves’ implied team total of 3.8 runs should keep his ownership low, which gives him appeal for GPPs.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Justin Turner
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
