The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split-slate: FanDuel’s main slate will start at 6:40 p.m. ET and features four games while DraftKings’ starts at 7:05 p.m. ET and features only three games.
Pitchers
Studs
The pitching options are pretty uninspiring, with only two players owning price tags above $8,000 on DraftKings:
- Zack Greinke (R) $9,100, ARI vs. ATL
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $8,600, WSH vs. CHC
Greinke is an intriguing option vs. the Atlanta Braves. He owns the top Vegas data on the slate, leading all pitchers in both opponent implied team total (3.4 runs) and moneyline odds (-152). He’s also been quite good over his past 10 starts, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.69 on DraftKings, but has seen a price decrease of $1,000 over the past month. He’s also been particularly impressive from a Statcast perspective over his past two, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -18 feet.
One are where he appears to have less upside than usual is with his strikeout potential. The Braves projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 23.2% over the past 12 months, giving Greinke a K Prediction of just 5.7. This game is also expected to take place in prime hitting conditions, resulting in a Weather Rating of just 31 for the pitchers. Pitchers at Chase Field have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.41 in comparable conditions (per the Trends tool).
Strasburg is another pitcher who has seen a sizable price decrease over the past month, but, unlike Greinke, his recent results have warranted it. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.93 over his past 10 starts, although he has started to show signs of improvement. He’s recorded 12 strikeouts and allowed four earned runs over his past two starts, and his Statcast data is impressive: 185-foot average distance, 88 mile per hour exit velocity, and 26% hard-hit rate. All three of those represent sizable decreases compared to his 12-month marks.
He’s in a bit of a boom-or-bust spot today vs. the Chicago Cubs. Their projected lineup has hit right-handed pitching well, evidenced by a wOBA of .323 over the past 12 months, but they’ve also struggled with a strikeout rate of 25.7%. As a result, Strasburg has an implied team total of 4.2 runs and is only a -111 favorite, but his K Prediction of 8.0 is the top mark by a significant margin. His combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data is particularly appealing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs): Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.83 on DraftKings.
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Values
Luis Castillo was impressive in limited innings in 2017 but has failed to live up to expectations in 2018. He’s pitched to a 4.83 ERA, although his 3.76 xFIP suggests he’s been better than his traditional numbers indicate. His overall numbers have been dragged down by a HR/FB rate of 17.3%, which is the fourth-highest mark among qualified starters. If he can see some progression in that department, he has the potential to post a solid game.
Perhaps that starts today vs. the San Diego Padres, who have been the worst team in the league this season vs. right-handed pitchers. They own the worst wOBA and highest strikeout rate while averaging the second-fewest runs per game. As a result, Castillo has strong marks in opponent implied team total (3.9 runs), moneyline odds (-144), and K Prediction (6.4). He’s available only on FanDuel but makes for a strong play.
Kyle Hendricks has a brutal matchup vs. the Washington Nationals, resulting in an opponent implied team total of 4.4 runs. That said, no one enters today’s contest in better recent form. His Statcast data from his past two starts is absolutely elite, limiting his opponents to an average distance of 177 feet, exit velocity of 82 mph, and hard-hit rate of 5%. He’s projected for only 17-20% ownership on DraftKings, but pitchers with comparable recent Statcast marks have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.70.
Fastballs
Anibal Sanchez: He’s pitched to a 2.98 ERA in 2018 and has posted negative differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over his past two starts. He’s a solid underdog vs. Greinke, but that should lower his ownership for GPPs.
Shane Bieber: He’s averaged a K/9 of 9.61 over the past 12 months and is a solid -149 favorite vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Unfortunately, he’s been hit extremely hard over his past two starts, allowing an average distance of 253 feet, exit velocity of 98 mph, and hard-hit rate of 66%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- 1. Billy McKinney (L)
- 2. Lourdes Gurriel (R)
- 3. Justin Smoak (S)
- 5. Randal Grichuk (R)
- 8. Aledmys Diaz (R)
Total Salary: $19,200
The Blue Jays’ implied team total of 4.1 runs is the second-lowest mark on DraftKings, which makes them a really intriguing target for GPPs. Ownership will obviously be very condensed with just six teams available, but a lower implied team total will likely make the Blue Jays somewhat contrarian. Stacking in the above 1-2-3-5-8 manner should also help from an ownership perspective, and Diaz could serve as a nice differentiator as the projected No. 8 hitter. He’s in strong recent form, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +18 feet.
Diaz is not the only Jays hitter in good form: McKinney has posted positive differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over his past 10 games, while Smoak has crushed the ball to the tune of a 255-foot average distance over the same time frame. I already mentioned Bieber’s amazing Statcast numbers from his past two starts, so the Jays have the opportunity to do some damage if they can limit strikeouts.
The top-rated FanDuel stack also belongs to the Blue Jays, so let’s go in a different direction. When stacking by Pro Trends, the top stack belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
- 3. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 4. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
- 7. Jason Kipnis (L)
- 8. Yan Gomes (R)
Total Salary: $14,700
The Indians will likely be a popular target given their slate-high implied team total of 5.0 runs, but stacking them without their projected Nos. 1, 2, and 5 hitters should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup. They’re taking on Blue Jays right-hander Sam Gaviglio, which puts Ramirez, Encarnacion, and Kipnis on the positive side of their batting splits. Gomes is also in good recent form, owning a hard-hit rate of 52% over his past eight games, and Kipnis owns a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Other Batters
A.J. Pollock has been a reverse-splits hitter over the past 12 months, meaning he’s a right-handed batter who actually hits better against right-handed pitchers. He’s posted a .359 wOBA and .223 ISO against traditional pitchers and enters today’s contest owning positive 15-day/12-month differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. He’s a nice value on FanDuel, where his $3,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%.
Kris Bryant has made his return for the Cubs and is expected to occupy the No. 5 spot in the lineup against Strasburg. He hasn’t exactly crushed the baseball since coming off the disabled list four games ago, but his DraftKings salary of $4,100 is extremely appealing. He’s been priced at $4,200 or less on only 42 occasions over the past three seasons, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.22 in those spots.
Jon Jay is expected to bat leadoff for the Diamondbacks, and he’s priced very fairly on DraftKings at just $3,800. He’s also posted a hard-hit rate of 55% over his past seven contests.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Kyle Hendricks
Photo credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
