Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Tigers (+279) at Yankees (-310) — 7:05 PM EST
Yankees in: Luke Voit
Yankees out: Greg Bird
Greg Bird will receive a routine day off, so the Yankees will roll with Miguel Andujar and Luke Voit at the No. 3 and No. 4 spots in the order, respectively. They’re presently implied to score a slate-high 5.9 runs and boast a slate-high Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Overall, each of Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. This is all bad news for lefty Francisco Liriano, who has allowed eight earned runs during his last seven innings pitched. Liriano has struggled to limit big hits during this stretch, allowing slate-worst marks in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. The Tigers-Yankees’ matchup currently has the third-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Thursday’s main slate, and both offenses will benefit from estimated wind gusts of seven miles per hour blowing out to right field.
Pirates (+106) at Cardinals (-115) — 7:15 PM EST
Cardinals in: Matt Carpenter
Matt Carpenter was pulled from Wednesday night’s game due to an illness, but he’ll lead off Thursday for a Cardinals lineup presently implied to score a respectable 4.2 runs. Carpenter is set up well against righty Joe Musgrove, as he’s posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, Carpenter ranks among the main slate’s top-four first basemen in wOBA and ISO vs. righties over the past calendar year. He’s the fifth- and third-highest rated first baseman in the Bales Model on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Still, Musgrove has pitched well recently, posting a +4.2 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating during his past 10 starts. He’s one of just five pitchers in Thursday’s main slate that have allowed less than one home run per nine innings pitched over the past calendar year and will take on a Cardinals lineup that has combined to post an average .313 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers.
