The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a four-game early slate beginning at 1:10 p.m. ET and a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel there are two pitchers who cost at least $10,000:
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,400, CLE @ BOS
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $10,100, WSH vs. PHI
Carrasco has been on fire over the past month, sporting a +11.80 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 88% Consistency Rating. He has historically dominated on the road, averaging a +8.85 Plus/Minus with a 73% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool), but this is a tough matchup against a projected Red Sox lineup that possesses a 20.2% strikeout rate and .334 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past year.
Moreover, the Red Sox rank first in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs). Given the Indians are just slight -116 moneyline favorites and the Red Sox boast an opponent implied team total of 4.4 runs, Carrasco is better reserved for tournaments, where he should have reduced ownership.
Strasburg will be getting his first start since mid June, which makes him tough to analyze. On one hand, the Phillies rank 23rd in wRC+ this season and Strasburg has an exceptional 8.5 K Prediction today. On the other hand, he could be incredibly rusty and may not pitch deep into the game.
Despite the Nationals’ favorable Vegas data — they check in as -176 moneyline favorites and the Phillies own a mediocre opponent implied of 3.7 runs — it’s probably best to err on the side of caution in cash games and consider the mid-range pitchers available in favorable spots tonight.
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Values
On the early slate, Freddy Peralta has a slate-high 8.4 K Prediction against a projected Reds lineup with a 26.8% strikeout rate and dreadful .278 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Peralta can be inconsistent, and his 96 mph exit velocity and 58% hard-hit rate allowed marks over his past two starts aren’t ideal, but the Reds are implied for a slate-low 3.5 implied run total and the Brewers are massive -235 moneyline favorites.
It’s typically unwise to roster pitchers at Coors Field, but Jon Gray historically hasn’t had issues exceeding salary-based expectations at home. In 38 home starts, Gray’s averaged 16.30 DraftKings points per game, a +3.01 Plus/Minus, and a 60.5% Consistency Rating. In his 43 road starts, he’s averaged 15.95 DraftKings points per game, a +1.02 Plus/Minus, and a 58.1% Consistency Rating.
There’s obviously some risk rostering him in this environment (Park Factor of 8 and Weather Rating of 18), but the matchup doesn’t get any better against a projected Padres lineup sporting a 33.3% strikeout rate and .274 wOBA against righties over the past year. Gray boasts the slate’s highest K Prediction (8.8), and the Rockies are large -236 moneyline favorites. Gray’s a serviceable SP2 option on DraftKings, where he has a 72% Bargain Rating.
Fastballs
Charlie Morton: He draws a difficult matchup against the Mariners (ninth in wRC+) but still boasts -142 moneyline odds. Seattle’s implied team total of 3.7 runs is the early slate’s second-lowest mark.
Lance Lynn: He owns a weak 5.3 K Prediction, but the Marlins boast the slate’s lowest opponent implied team total (3.2 runs); the Yankees are sizeable -179 moneyline favorites.
Walker Buehler: He’s been incredible over the past month, averaging a +7.60 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 67% Consistency Rating. Buehler’s 90% Bargain Rating is the second-highest mark among pitchers on FanDuel, and the Dodgers are -162 moneyline favorites against a Cardinals team implied for just 3.3 runs.
Noah Syndergaard: His 6.0 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but the Giants rank 25th in wRC+ against righties this season. Further, he has favorable Vegas data, including -158 moneyline odds and a 3.3 opponent implied run total.
Clay Buchholz: His 5.0 K Prediction limits his upside, but the Angels are implied for a low 3.5 runs and the Diamondbacks are the slate’s second-largest favorite (-200 moneyline odds).
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man early-slate DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
- 1. Christian Yelich (L)
- 2. Lorenzo Cain (R)
- 3. Mike Moustakas (L)
- 4. Jesus Aguilar (R)
- 5. Travis Shaw (L)
Total Salary: $24,100
The Brewers will be a popular stack on the early slate, as they possess the slate’s highest implied team total (5.6) and the second-highest Team Value Rating (70) on DraftKings. Opposing righty Robert Stephenson has allowed an enormous amount of hard contact over his past two starts, evidenced by his 237-foot averaged batted-ball distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate.
It’s an excellent spot for Shaw, who has hit righties to the tune of a .363 wOBA and .262 ISO over the past 12 months. Additionally, he has some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate, sporting a 258-foot average distance, 95 mph exit velocity, and 46% hard-hit rate. All of those exceed his 15-day/12-month averages. Aguilar is in comparable form to Shaw, possessing a 242-foot average distance and monstrous 98 mph exit velocity.
The top four-man main-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Colorado Rockies.
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. DJ LeMahieu (R)
- 3. Carlos Gonzalez (L)
- 6. David Dahl (L)
Total Salary: $15,100
The Rockies will square off against right-hander Jacob Nix. Over the past year, he possesses an atrocious 2.09 WHIP and 1.45 HR/9 mark. He’s coming off an outing against the Diamondbacks in which he lasted less than a full inning while allowing five earned runs.
The Rockies should command high ownership, as their 6.5 implied team total is the highest on the slate by a full run after the Cubs (5.5 runs). The Rockies also possess a favorable 83 Team Value Rating on FanDuel — the second-best mark on the slate. Blackmon, Gonzalez, and Dahl will all be on the positive side of their batting splits. All three possess ISOs over .231, and Gonzalez and Dahl boast absurd wOBAs over .400. With the lack of attractive high-priced pitching options, the Rockies are an easy stack to afford.
Other Batters
Except for Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman leads all first basemen with seven FanDuel Pro Trends. He’ll be on the negative side of his batting splits, but he’s still shown a fair amount of power with his .221 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year. He’s also in good recent form, posting a 241-foot average distance, 97 mph exit velocity, and 56% hard-hit rate over his past 13 games. All of those exceed his 15-day/12-month averages. Given he’s projected to hit from the No. 6 spot in the order, he’s more of salary-saving tournament option.
Javier Baez is in a nice spot against Francisco Liriano, who has allowed opposing teams to average a 223-foot distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and massive 59% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. Baez has shown elite power against lefties with his .386 wOBA and .242 ISO over the past 12 months. The Cubs’ 5.5 implied team total trails only the Rockies’ mark, and they own the slate’s best Team Value Rating on DraftKings and FanDuel.
David Peralta is projected to occupy the No. 3 spot in the order and will look to continue his home run streak. He’s been crushing over his past 10 games, averaging a +6.95 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 60% Consistency Rating. He’s obliterated right-handed pitchers over the past year, evidenced by his .396 wOBA and .249 ISO. Peralta’s robust 66% recent hard-hit rate leads all hitters on Wednesday. Historically, batters with comparable lineup spots, Vegas data (5.0 runs), and hard-hit rates have averaged a +2.56 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: David Peralta
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
