The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: The four-game early slate starts at 1:10 p.m. ET, while the 10-game main slate begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
High-end options are thin, with just three pitchers priced at $10,000 or more on DraftKings.
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,200, HOU vs. COL
- Zack Wheeler (R) $10,800, NYM @ BAL
- Jose Berrios (R) $10,000, MIN vs. PIT
On the early slate, Berrios is $900 more expensive than any other pitcher, and he has a brutal matchup against a projected Pirates lineup that possesses a 19.9% strikeout rate and .334 wOBA over the past 12 months against right-handed pitching. That probably explains his subpar 5.7 K Prediction, even though he has a respectable 9.49 SO/9 over the past year. There isn’t a massive favorite on the slate, but Vegas is on the Twins at home (-125), and the Pirates are implied for just 3.8 runs.
The Rockies are implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs, and the Astros check in with the largest moneyline odds on the slate (-200) and are getting 67% of the public bets. The matchup certainly isn’t perfect for Cole — the projected Rockies lineup has a middling 22.9% strikeout rate and slate-best splits-adjusted .348 wOBA over the past 12 months — but he still has the second-highest K Prediction on the slate (7.9). Paying all the way up for Cole on the main slate makes a ton of sense in guaranteed prize pools. Even in a tough matchup against Colorado, he has a top-three ceiling projection in our Models.
Over his last two starts, Wheeler has yielded a batted-ball distance of only 197 feet, exit velocity of 89 mph and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 31% and 21%. He’s in a phenomenal spot overall — the opposing Orioles rank 24th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs) — so Wheeler is firmly in consideration for cash games. The projected Baltimore lineup has the third-highest splits-adjusted strikeout rate (27.7%) and worst wOBA (0.26) on the slate. He’s been a reliable option lately with an 80% Consistency Rating over the past month (per our Trends tool), and his +3.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus is second on the slate over the past year.
Values
Vincent Velasquez is a reasonable main-slate salary-saving option, as the Phillies are slight +114 underdogs vs. the Red Sox. He has subpar recent Statcast numbers, but he’s also sporting a 7.0 K Prediction thanks in part to the projected Boston lineup’s 28.0% strikeout rate against righties over the past year.
Felix Pena doesn’t normally go deep into games, but with just over five innings pitched in each of his past two starts, he’s in play at just $6,000 on FanDuel. his matchup is fantastic, as San Diego’s projected lineup has a 28.9% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching over the past year and the team is bottom-three in wRC+ this season. The issue with Pena could be his recent form. In his last start, he allowed a batted-ball distance of 249 feet and exit velocity of 93 mph. His 9.51 SO/9 over the past year is based on limited action, but his upside is undeniable, given his slate-leading 8.5 K Prediction.
Fastballs
Chris Archer: He offers value on FanDuel with an 85% Bargain Rating, but he has been tagged lately with a slate-worst 92-mph exit velocity. The Pirates are slight dogs (+115) against the Twins, but Archer could provide leverage off of Berrios in tournaments with a slate-leading 6.5 K Prediction.
Kevin Gausman: He doesn’t have high strikeout upside (5.1 K Prediction), so his price may be tough to justify in cash games, but the opposing Marlins own a bottom-two .262 wOBA over the past 12 months and are 26th in wRC+ against righties this season. The Braves are also the largest favorite on the slate (-219), and Gausman has the second-most DraftKings Pro Trends.
Robbie Erlin: He could provide some tournament leverage at a discount on the main slate, and the Padres are +125 favorites facing Pena and the Angels. He’s sporting strong recent Statcast numbers, including a batted-ball distance allowed of 197 feet, exit velocity of 89 mph and 32% fly-ball rate.
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Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top main-slate DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Indians, who are implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs:
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 3. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 4. Yonder Alonso (L)
- 6. Jason Kipnis (L)
Total Salary: $26,000
They’re expensive, but it may be worth it, as the Indians are set to take on Reds righty Robert Stephenson, who has a bottom-two 1.45 WHIP and troublesome 54% fly-ball rate over his past two starts.
The player most likely to take advantage of Stephenson’s inadequacies is Ramirez. He’s been on an absolute tear, averaging 11.8 DraftKings points per game and +2.56 Plus/Minus over the past month despite his costly salary. His .458 wOBA paired with a .369 ISO against righties is truly elite. And Kipnis is primed for progression according to his team-leading +60 Recent Batted Ball Luck.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Twins, who are outside the top tier of implied totals (4.2) but own the highest Team Value Rating (83) on the early slate:
- 1. Joe Mauer (L)
- 2. Eddie Rosario (L)
- 4. Miguel Sano (R)
- 5. Max Kepler (L)
Total Salary: $10,600
Minnesota will square off against the aforementioned Archer, the Pirates righty who owns a slate-worst 1.49 HR/9 over the past 12 months. He’s given up a home run in four of his last five starts and yielded the highest batted-ball distance of any pitcher on the early slate (216 feet) over his last two.
Rosario, Sano and Kepler all own Bargain Ratings of at least 97% and are on the positive sides of their batting splits with a wOBA of at least 0.318 against right-handed pitching over the past year. Sano leads the way with an elite 58% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Jed Lowrie is one of the highest-rated early-slate batters in our Models, with a massive 239-foot batted-ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Teammate Matt Chapman could be a fantastic stacking partner: He’s absolutely abused right-handed pitching with a .358 wOBA and .235 ISO over the past 12 months.
The Blue Jays own the third-highest implied total on the main slate (4.9), and Devon Travis leads all batters with 11 DraftKings Pro Trends. He’s sporting unreal 15-day/12-month Statcast differentials of +42 feet, +4 mph, and +15 percentage points. Hitters with comparable implied totals, lineup spots and batted-ball metrics have historically averaged a +2.00 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 21 Upside Rating.
With a home run in six of his past seven games, Ronald Acuna will probably be chalky, especially given the Braves trail only the Indians (5.4) on the main slate with their implied run total (5.2). He’s criminally underpriced on FanDuel with a 95% Bargain Rating, and he has been absolutely dominating lately with an impressive 247-foot batted-ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate. With a ton of viable mid-range and value options at pitcher, it could make sense to pay up for a batter like Acuna; he’s posted a strong .399 wOBA and .293 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year.
Derek Holland has given up lots of hard contact lately with a bottom-two 47% hard-hit rate allowed over his past two starts, and now he’s facing the red-hot Dodgers. Justin Turner is on the positive side of his dramatic batting splits, and Brian Dozier owns a top-six ceiling projection in our Models.
St. Louis is just outside the top tier of implied run totals (4.6), so Matt Carpenter could be a fantastic GPP play for the Cardinals. Projected to leadoff per usual, he has an elite .412 wOBA and .309 ISO against righties over the past 12 months and absolutely dazzling recent Statcast data. His batted-ball distance of 244 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph and fly-ball rate of 50% rival those of almost any batter in the slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Ronald Acuna
Photo credit: Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports
