The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, there are four pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $12,300, NYM @ NYY
- Luis Severino (R) $11,800, NYY vs. NYM
- Michael Foltynewicz (R) $10,500, ATL vs. MIA
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,000, LAD vs. SF
The slate is highlighted by a heavyweight bout between deGrom and Severino at Yankee Stadium. The Mets are implied for a bottom-two 3.0 runs, and the Yankees have the slate’s third-highest moneyline odds (-190), getting 71% of the public bets.
Vegas is certainly giving the edge to Severino, but he’s in mostly a neutral spot against a Mets lineup with a 24.4% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. But Severino still has a lot going for him: He sports a top-two 1.08 WHIP and 10.59 SO/9 over that time, and he has a predictably strong 7.3 K Prediction. Per our Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been fantastic investments, averaging a +3.46 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
On the plus side, deGrom has a slate-leading 1.07 WHIP and 10.94 SO/9 and top-two 7.7 K Prediction. But there are some major problems with rostering him in cash games. It’s a brutal matchup against a Yankees squad who ranks fourth in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs). Further, the Mets are massive +174 underdogs, and deGrom has troublesome recent Statcast numbers. Over his last two starts, the Mets ace has yielded a 235-foot batted-ball distance and 50% fly-ball rate. His -92 Recent Batted Ball Luck is the worst on the slate. If rostered, he might be best used as a leverage play off of Severino in guaranteed prize pools.
Foltynewicz will probably be the pitcher in this tier with the lowest ownership, but he could provide value, as the projected Marlins lineup has a pathetic .267 wOBA against righties over the past year. Even though the Marlins have just a 23.5% strikeout rate, Foltynewicz’s 8.1 K Prediction still leads the slate, and Vegas is on board as well, making the Braves slate-leading -237 moneyline favorites.
Kershaw is one of the few high-priced pitchers who is a better value on DraftKings than FanDuel with a 72% Bargain Rating. Still working his way into form, Kershaw had only one strikeout through six innings in his last start after registering seven or more in three of his previous four games. He has arguably the most favorable matchup of all the high-priced pitchers, as the opposing Giants rank 21st in wRC+ this season against left-handed pitching. Their projected lineup owns a splits-adjusted 25.9% strikeout rate over the past year, which is the fourth-worst mark on today’s slate. The Giants are implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs.
Values
Miles Mikolas has a pretty terrible matchup against the Nationals, as their projected lineup has a top-two .341 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past year, but he’s at least intriguing on a slate with limited value. The Cardinals pitcher doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside (6.21 SO/9 and 3.6 K Prediction), but he’s a grinder, averaging 6.25 innings pitched over his last four starts, with immaculate Statcast data over his last two. His recent batted-ball data is easily the best on the slate with a 165-foot average distance, 86-mph exit velocity and 28% hard-hit rate. Pitchers with comparably impressive recent batted-ball data and terrible K Predictions have historically still been fantastic investments in a small sample, averaging a +6.05 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 72.7% Consistency Rating.
Sean Reid-Foley could be in play as a pure punt, pitching in his major-league debut for the Blue Jays at just $4,400 on DraftKings. The Blue Jays are -121 moneyline favorites, and Reid-Foley takes on a Royals team that ranks 27th in wRC+ against righties over the past year.
Fastballs
Zack Greinke: The Diamondbacks are the fifth-largest favorite on the slate (-162), and Greinke is technically priced as a stud on FanDuel at $10,200. His 6.7 K Prediction is worth exposure in tournaments, and he’s in solid recent form, holding opposing teams to a batted-ball distance of 205 feet, exit velocity of 88 mph and hard-hit rate of 33%.
Andrew Heaney: The Padres have the highest strikeout rate on the main slate (29.2%), so Heaney could provide upside at a discount: He trails only Foltynewicz, deGrom and Severino with his 6.7 K Prediction. He’s given up some hard-contact lately, but the Angels are -119 moneyline favorites, and the opposing Padres are implied for a paltry 3.9 runs. Similarly priced pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically been reliable options with a +2.27 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 64.3% Consistency Rating.
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Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Braves, who are implied for a slate-high 5.6 runs and top-two 77 Team Value Rating on the back-half of a double-header.
- 1. Ronald Acuna (R)
- 2. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 3. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 4. Nick Markakis (L)
- 5. Johan Camargo (S)
Total Salary: $23,100
They’re expensive, but it may be worth it, as the Braves are set to take on Marlins righty Merandy Gonzalez, who has a slate-worst 1.81 WHIP and troublesome 1.58 HR/9 allowed mark over the past 12 months. Projected to lead off, Acuna continues to smash, averaging 11.5 DraftKings points per game with a 59% Consistency Rating over the past month. Freeman and Markakis both own recent batted-ball distances of at least 230 feet.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Cardinals, who are outside of the top tier but still implied for a healthy 4.6 runs.
- 1. Matt Carpenter (L)
- 2. Yadier Molina (R)
- 4. Marcell Ozuna (R)
- 5. Paul DeJong (R)
Total Salary: $14,900
St. Louis squares off against Nats lefty Tommy Milone, who owns a slate-worst 2.23 HR/9 over the past 12 months and an enticing 53% fly-ball rate over his past two starts.
Naturally, Carpenter and Molina will be popular stacking options at the top of the lineup, but DeJong has arguably even better recent Statcast numbers. They haven’t translated to fantasy points yet — DeJong has just a 36% Consistency Rating over the past month — but he’s been raking with a 244-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 60% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. Historically, hitters in similar lineup spots with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied run totals have provided a 17 Upside Rating at a low 6.0% ownership rate in GPPs.
Other Batters
The White Sox may be a sharp way to save salary on FanDuel, especially against Tigers righty Artie Lewicki, who owns a bottom-two 1.78 WHIP over the past 12 months. Projected to lead off, Nicky Delmonico stands out as one of the best values on the entire slate at just $2,200. He has excellent recent Statcast data with an average distance of 238 feet, exit velocity of 92 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 40%, smashing his 12-month averages with differentials of +28 feet, +3 mph, and +11 percentage points. Jose Abreu is on the wrong side of his batting splits, but he could still provide upside in tournaments with impressive hard-contact numbers over the past 15 days, including a 93-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate.
Arizona’s 5.4-run implied total trails only Atlanta’s, and few can match Paul Goldschmidt’s upside, even though he’s on the wrong side of his dramatic batting splits against righties. As unreal as it sounds, Eduardo Escobar has been considerably better than Goldy lately, sporting an impressive 234-foot batted-ball distance and 53% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days, and he’s on the right side of his batting splits with an elite .376 wOBA and .295 ISO.
Speaking of massive batting splits: Curtis Granderson could crush today with a .121 wOBA differential against right-handed pitching. He’s been smashing lately with a massive batted-ball distance of 243 feet, exit velocity of 97 mph and hard-hit rate of 53%. He has also been considerably unlucky with a +78 Recent Batted Ball Luck.
Jose Ramirez is one of the highest-rated batters in our Models, with a massive 32.2-point ceiling projection against Reds pitcher Homer Bailey. Ramirez has a studly 62% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. Teammate Francisco Lindor is also in play: He absolutely abuses right-handed pitching with a .388 wOBA and .286 ISO over the last 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Luis Severino
Photo credit: Rick Osentosk-USA TODAY Sports
