The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game main slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
>> Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts’ picks.
Pitchers
Studs
Even though 28 teams are playing, just one pitcher checks in with a five-digit salary on FanDuel.
- Gerrit Cole (R) $10,500, HOU vs. SEA
The Mariners put on a show last night, throttling Justin Verlander for seven hits and six runs (including three home runs) in just two innings. Cole will have his work cut out for him tonight against a projected Mariners lineup that boasts a minuscule 20.9% strikeout rate and .327 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Additionally, the Mariners rank 10th this season in splits-adjusted Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) (FanGraphs). That said, there are some positives for Cole. The Mariners have the slate’s lowest implied run total (3.1), and the Astros check in as the second-largest favorite (-198 moneyline odds). Cole owns a respectable 7.6 K Prediction, and he’s been excellent at limiting hard contact over his past two starts, evidenced by his 17% hard-hit rate. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have averaged a +5.30 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 62.6% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Values
Freddy Peralta has an 89% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and he’s been excellent over the past year, possessing a 1.05 WHIP, 0.85 HR/9 and slate-best 12.19 SO/9. While the Brewers-Braves game is a pick’em and the opposing Braves are implied for a less-than-ideal 4.3 runs, Peralta has the most strikeout upside on the slate with his 9.4 K Prediction. The matchup isn’t imposing, given that the Braves rank 20th in split-adjusted wRC+ this season and have a projected lineup with a splits-adjusted 27.1% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have been great at exceeding salary-based expectations, averaging a +7.65 Plus/Minus with a 69.1% Consistency Rating.
Nathan Eovaldi has been solid over his past 10 starts, averaging a +8.14 Plus/Minus with a 60% Consistency Rating. His 85% Bargain Rating is the third-best mark on FanDuel. He has an exploitable matchup against a projected Orioles lineup that owns a 27.7% strikeout rate and .299 wOBA against righties over the past year. The Orioles also rank 24th in splits-adjusted wRC+ this season. The Red Sox are big favorites with -181 moneyline odds, the third-highest mark on the night. The Orioles have been one of the most DFS-friendly matchups for right-handed pitchers this season, allowing opposing pitchers to average 30.40 FanDuel points per game with a +3.73 Plus/Minus and 66.7% Consistency.
Fastballs
Masahiro Tanaka: He’s allowed an average exit velocity of 98 mph in his past two starts, but the Yankees are the slate’s largest favorite (-213 moneyline odds), and he possesses a 7.7 K Prediction against a projected Rangers lineup that has the slate’s highest splits-adjusted strikeout rate (28.4%).
Zack Wheeler: He’s been effective at limiting hard contact over the past 15 days with his 23% hard-hit rate. Wheeler boasts a respectable 6.2 K Prediction against a mediocre Marlins team that ranks 26th in split-adjusted wRC+. He’ll also benefit from a Park Factor of 86 at Marlins Park.
Zach Eflin: He has an excellent matchup against a projected Padres lineup that sports a high 27.2% strikeout rate and pathetic .275 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past year. The Phillies have favorable Vegas odds (-137 moneyline favorites), and the Padres’ 3.7-run implied total is tied for the second-lowest mark tonight. Petco Park (Park Factor of 81) has historically yielded the second-highest FanDuel Plus/Minus to right-handed pitchers (+3.32).
Shane Bieber: He’ll take on a White Sox team that ranks 22nd in splits-adjusted wRC+ this season, and the Indians check in as -143 moneyline favorites. Bieber’s 6.3 K Prediction is on par with other pitchers in his price range on DraftKings.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest MLB conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Manny Machado (R)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Yasmani Grandal (S)
- 5. Cody Bellinger (L)
Total Salary: $24,400
The Dodgers could have lower ownership than usual at Coors Field considering that their 5.2-run implied total is only the fourth-highest mark on the slate. Also, they’re facing Rockies right-hander Jon Gray, who’s been excellent over the past month, averaging a +10.55 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 100% Consistency Rating, and that includes two starts at home against the Astros and Mariners.
That said, it’s still an appealing matchup for the Dodgers, who rank second in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season and have a Park Factor of 100 and Weather Rating of 80. Hitters in the top half of the order at Coors Field with Weather Ratings in the 80th percentile have historically averaged a +1.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Bellinger stands out in this matchup, as he’s in excellent form, possessing a 245-foot batted-ball average distance and 93-mph exit velocity. His distance differential of +27 feet is one of the highest marks among first basemen on DraftKings, and he’s historically smashed righties to the tune of a .352 wOBA and .223 isolated power (ISO) over the past 12 months.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins.
- 1. Joe Mauer (L)
- 2. Eddie Rosario (L)
- 3. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 4. Miguel Sano (R)
Total Salary: $10,300
The Twins’ 4.6-run implied total is nothing to write home about, but they possess plenty of value with the slate’s highest Team Value Rating (91) on FanDuel. They’ll take on Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmerman, who owns troubling Statcast data over the past 15 days, allowing teams to average a 251-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity along with allowing an absurd .441 wOBA and .425 ISO.
This is a great spot for Polanco, who has crushed right-handed pitchers over the past year with an elite .400 wOBA and .229 ISO. His +1.19 Projected Plus/Minus is the third-highest mark among shortstops. Rosario possesses a 97% Bargain Rating and a stellar splits-adjusted .386 wOBA and .268 ISO over the past 12 months. Except for Mauer, the stacked hitters are on the positive sides of their batting splits, and their cheap costs will open up salary for other high-priced hitters.
Other Batters
Given the context of the slate, it may not be difficult to roster the expensive but red-hot Matt Carpenter. Over his past 10 games, he’s averaged an absurd +5.74 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 80% Consistency. He’s obliterated right-handed pitching over the past year, evidenced by his .405 wOBA and .296 ISO. Additionally, he’s in tremendous recent batted-ball form, averaging a +246-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate. It’s a great matchup against Royals pitcher Burch Smith, who has yielded a .409 wOBA and .282 ISO to opposing hitters over the past 15 days.
The Yankees will command decent ownership tonight with the slate’s highest implied run total (5.5 runs). Giancarlo Stanton will be expensive, but he’s shown exceptional power against left-handed pitching, evidenced by his .530 wOBA and .425 ISO. Aaron Hicks is more affordable with his 76% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and he’s sporting a sublime .379 wOBA and .272 ISO against lefties. Batters in the top-two lineup spots with comparable implied totals have historically averaged a +2.17 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
With the Brewers’ 4.3-run implied total, Eric Thames should have almost nonexistent ownership, especially since he’s projected to hit seventh. The amusing thing about Thames isn’t his elite .375 wOBA and .304 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year: It’s that he owns a ridiculous 306-foot batted-ball distance with a 99-mph exit velocity and 63% hard-hit rate over his past nine games. In our Trends database, there are 148 instances of hitters averaging a batted-ball distance of at least 300 feet. Historically, those hitters have averaged a +2.69 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Additionally, his +51 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests that he’s been unlucky lately and could be headed for progression.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Freddy Peralta
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
