The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
On Sunday, DraftKings offers a 10-game main slate at 1:10 p.m. ET; FanDuel’s nine-game main slate starts at the same time.
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Pitchers
Studs
Sunday is thin with just one pitcher checking in at $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Aaron Nola (R) $10,000, PHI vs. MIA
Aaron Nola has the best matchup on the day against the Marlins, who rank 26th in splits-adjusted Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) this season (FanGraphs) and whose projected lineup owns a 27% strikeout rate and weak .295 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Nola leads all pitchers with 10 Pro Trends, and he should end up as the slate’s chalkiest pitcher: His 7.7 K Prediction, 2.9-run opponent implied total, and -247 moneyline odds are all slate-best marks. Additionally, Nola has been great at limiting hard contact over his past two starts, holding opponents to a minuscule 22% hard-hit rate. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +4.15 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 61.7% Consistency (per our Trends tool).
Values
Tanner Roark is a nice value on FanDuel, where he owns a stellar 95% Bargain Rating. Roark has had some awful outings, but he’s looked great over his past two starts, limiting opponents to an average batted-ball distance of 199 feet, exit velocity of 87 mph and absurd 17% hard-hit rate, all of which give him positive 15-day/12-month differentials. His 5.2 K Prediction against a projected low-strikeout lineup (21.7% over the past year) limits his overall upside, but he may be able to pick up the win as the Nationals are -160 moneyline favorites.
Jon Lester has been a roller coaster this season, averaging a +0.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 61% Consistency, but the slate is void of many safe options after Nola. Lester boasts a respectable 6.7 K Prediction, and the Cubs are promising -200 moneyline favorites against a projected Padres lineup that has a 28.9% strikeout rate and pathetic .283 wOBA against lefties over the past year. The main concern with Lester is the weather: The Padres-Cubs game is forecast for a 90-degree temperature with 14-mph winds blowing out to center field. Given Lester’s recent Statcast data (a 236-foot average batted-ball distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate), the weather could be a problem.
Fastballs
Jon Gray: He’s smashed over the past month, averaging a +13.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 80% Consistency, but he has a below-average on-paper matchup: The projected Brewers lineup has a splits-adjusted 22.8% strikeout rate and .324 wOBA over the past 12 months. On the positive side, Gray’s 7.1 K Prediction is the slate’s second-highest mark.
Jack Flaherty: His 7.1 K Prediction is tied for the second-highest mark, and the Cardinals are in a pick’em with the Pirates (-104 moneyline odds). Flaherty benefits from the 88 Park Factor at PNC Park.
Trevor Williams: He’s at the pitcher-friendly PNC Park, and Williams has elite recent Statcast data, holding teams to a 185-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity and 28% hard-hit rate.
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Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
- 1. Jonathan Villar (S)
- 2. Tim Beckham (R)
- 3. Adam Jones (R)
- 4. Mark Trumbo (R)
- 5. Chris Davis (L)
Total Salary: $19,900
It’s a good spot for the Orioles against Drew Hutchison, whom the Rangers just signed off the street last night. The Orioles possess the fourth-highest implied run total (5.0) and third-best Team Value Rating (75) on DraftKings. Jonathan Villar and Tim Beckham have each crushed right-handed pitchers over the past year with wOBAs over .350 and ISOs of at least .219. Beckham is in exceptional form of late, posting a +25-foot distance differential over his past 12 games. Hitters with comparable lineup spots, distance differentials and implied totals have historically averaged a healthy +1.88 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Colorado Rockies.
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. DJ LeMahieu (R)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 4. Trevor Story (R)
Total Salary: $15,000
The Rockies could be a contrarian stack considering they are on the road and implied for ‘just’ 4.4 runs. Since 2012, their 1-4 hitters have averaged 12.8% ownership at home compared to 5.6% on the road.
The matchup against a left-handed pitcher is good news for Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, since it puts them on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits. Arenado has demolished lefties over the past year to the tune of a .565 wOBA and .452 ISO: His wOBA and ISO differentials lead all third basemen. Arenado is also in great form, sporting a 220-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate. Story has also crushed lefties over the past 12 months, owning an elite .406 wOBA and .306 ISO. Outside of Charlie Blackmon, each player in the stack has a Bargain Rating of 90% or higher.
Other Batters
The Orioles-Rangers game isn’t on FanDuel’s main slate, but on DraftKings that game will probably be a popular one to stack. The Rangers own the slate’s highest implied run total (5.6) and fourth-highest Team Value Rating (74). They’ll square off against Yefrey Ramirez, who has troublesome Statcast data over his past 15 days, allowing teams to average a 247-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity. With the lack of top-priced pitching options, it may not be challenging to roster Rougned Odor or Shin-Soo Choo even though they exceed $5,000. Odor is obliterating the baseball over his past 12 games, evidenced by his absurd 97-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable Statcast data and implied totals have historically averaged a +1.83 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 50.7% Consistency.
Trea Turner is second in the league in stolen bases per game over the past 12 months. He’s on a ridiculous hot streak right now, averaging a +10.70 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 60% Consistency. He’s been a monster on the base paths with eight stolen bases over his past five games, and the Nationals rank third with a 5.1-run implied total. Turner owns our second-highest ceiling projection among shortstops.
Rhys Hoskins is another batter on a hot streak, averaging a +6.77 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 80% Consistency over his past 10 games. He possesses an elite .397 wOBA and .293 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and he’s in tremendous recent batted-ball form with his 236-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate, all of which are better than his 12-month averages.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Aaron Nola
Photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
