The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,500, NYM vs. ATL
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,200, HOU @ LAD
- Luis Severino (R) $10,200, NYY @ BOS
Paying all the way up for deGrom could be a viable path today. The Braves are implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs, and the Mets are sizable -143 moneyline favorites. The matchup certainly isn’t perfect — the projected Braves lineup has a middling 25.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months — but deGrom still has the second-highest K Prediction on the slate (7.7). He’s doing his part to limit hard contact with an 87 mph exit velocity and 23% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Over his last two starts, Verlander has yielded a batted-ball distance of only 194 feet, exit velocity of 87 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 18% and 25%. The Astros are implied for just 3.6 runs, so Verlander’s lack of run support is concerning against the Dodgers, but he could still carry immense strikeout upside with a slate-leading 8.2 K Prediction. It’s still a tough spot overall — the Dodgers rank second in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs) — so Verlander is probably best suited for guaranteed prize pools, despite a slate-leading 0.84 WHIP and 11.43 SO/9 over the past year. Per our Trends tool, pitchers with comparably immaculate recent batted-ball data and K Predictions have been great investments, sporting a +2.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
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Severino has a brutal matchup against a Red Sox team that ranks first in wRC+ against righties this season. The Yankees are still -127 favorites, but another drawback with Severino is his potential lack of upside (6.6 K Prediction) against this projected Boston lineup with a low 20.3% strikeout rating and terrifying .340 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Pitchers with similar salaries and K Predictions have historically underperformed, posting a -0.02 DraftKings Plus/Minus, 51.1% Consistency Rating, and a laughable 2.0% Upside Rating.
Values
Vincent Velasquez looks underpriced in the mid range on both sites, coming in at $8,000 and $8,100 on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. He will take on a projected Miami lineup that is tied for a slate-worst 28.1% strikeout rate and a putrid .284 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. That said, his 7.3 K Prediction is fourth-highest (above-average for his price), and the Phillies are -166 moneyline favorites against a Marlins team implied for only 3.7 runs. Pitchers with similar K Predictions and comparable Vegas data tend to be reliable options, having posted 35.10 FanDuel points per game, a +3.72 average Plus/Minus, and a 60.4% Consistency Rating.
Fastballs
Patrick Corbin: The Diamondbacks are the third-largest favorite on the slate (-185), and Corbin would be in the stud tier on DraftKings priced at $10,400. His 7.4 K Prediction is worth attacking in all formats, and he enters Friday in elite recent form, holding opposing teams to a recent batted-ball distance of 162 feet, exit velocity of 86 mph, and fly-ball rate of 9%.
Jake Odorizzi: The matchup against the Royals carries immense upside, as their projected lineup is tied for a slate-worst 28.1% strikeout rate, but it doesn’t come without risk, as they also have an excellent .387 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Vegas seems on board with the Twins: They are the largest favorite on the slate with -196 moneyline odds.
Chris Archer: The Cardinals struggle to hit righties, ranking 23rd in wRC+ over the past year, and their projected lineup provides a bottom-three wOBA over that same time period. Archer could fly under the radar with solid Vegas data, and he trails only Velasquez in the mid tier price range with a solid 6.9 K Prediction.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rangers, who are implied for a slate-high 6.5 runs and 88 Team Value Rating:
- Rougned Odor (L)
- Elvis Andrus (R)
- Adrian Beltre (R)
- Joey Gallo (L)
- Ronald Guzman (L)
Total Salary: $21,600
It is typically -EV to leave off a No. 1 hitter in your stack, but Shin-Soo Choo has underperformed lately, sporting a batted-ball distance of 195 feet, a fly-ball rate of 24%, and a team low Recent Batted Ball Luck (BBL) score of -53.
The remaining Rangers will be chalky against Orioles pitcher David Hess, whose 2.00 HR/9 mark is second-worst on the slate over the past year; the projected Rangers lineup boasts an above-average .326 wOBA against righties over the same time period. Andrus stands out as one of the top batting options on the slate, with impressive recent Statcast differentials versus his year-long averages, including a distance of +34 feet, exit velocity of +3 mph, and hard-hit rate of +14 percentage points. Odor is generating a ton of hard contact lately as well with a 97 mph exit velocity and 60% hard-hit rate. He is especially valuable on FanDuel with a 99% Bargain Rating.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins, who are implied for a healthy 5.3 runs:
- Joe Mauer (L)
- Eddie Rosario (L)
- Logan Morrison (L)
- Miguel Sano (R)
Total Salary: $10,200
The Twins are extremely underpriced with a 100 Team Value Rating, and the player most likely to lead the way is Sano in the No. 5 position. He’s due for progression with a +71 Recent BBL, boasting fantastic Statcast data over the past five games, including an average distance of 243 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and hard-hit rate of 55%. Rosario is on the right side of elite batting splits, sporting a .400 wOBA and .283 ISO against righties over the past year.
Other Batters
Washington’s implied run total of 5.6 is the third-highest on the slate, but there are significant weather concerns in Cincinnati. If they play, Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper will likely be popular stacking options in the Nos. 3 and No. 4 spots, respectively, against the Reds. Rendon is on the wrong side of his batting splits, but he’s still sporting a .343 wOBA and .175 ISO against right-handed pitching. Harper has been better of late, posting a massive 256-foot average distance and a 95 mph exit velocity over the past 15 days. There’s definitely immense upside in targeting batters against Anthony DeSclafani, who owns a slate-high 2.66 HR/9 mark over the past year.
The Pirates are intriguing against Cardinals righty John Gant, who has been giving up a ton of hard contact lately, including a 95 mph exit velocity and slate-worst 56% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. Priced at just $2,200 on FanDuel, leadoff hitter Adam Frazier will be a chalky value option with a 99% Bargain Rating. He’s on the right side of massive batting splits, sporting .110 wOBA and .162 ISO differentials, with impressive recent Statcast numbers that have yet to translate to fantasy points.
On the other side of the chalky Rangers, Chris Davis is firmly in play for the Orioles even in the No. 5 spot. He’s been hitting as well as anyone lately with a 262-foot batted-ball distance, 97 mph exit velocity, and 59% and 51% fly-ball and hard-hit rates. Players with similar lineup positions, implied totals, and comparable Statcast numbers have been solid tournament options with a +0.69 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 19.0% Upside Rating.
Cleveland is just outside the top tier of implied totals (5.3), so Jose Ramirez could be a fantastic GPP play if the Indians go under-owned. Projected to bat third, he has an elite .442 wOBA and .347 ISO against righties over the past 12 months and carries the highest ceiling projection of any batter in our models.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Elvis Andrus
Photo credit: Tim Heitman – USA TODAY Sports
